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瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251125
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 09:41
盘面来看,玉米期价总体偏强震荡,谨慎追涨。 | 观点总结( | 随着新季玉米上市量逐步增加,原料玉米供应较为充裕,行业开机率持续回升,供应端压力增加。不过,当前供需结构良好,下游 | | --- | --- | | 淀粉) | 需求尚可,企业走货顺畅。截至11月19日,全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量110.9万吨,较上周下降2.40万吨,周降幅2.12%,月 | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | 降幅1.68%;年同比增幅25.59%。盘面来看,近日淀粉随玉米市场同步上涨。 数据来源第三方,观点仅供参考。市场有风险,投资需谨慎! 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 瑞达期 ...
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251120
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 09:13
缓。盘面来看,前期走强后,近日玉米期价略有回落,短期观望。 | 观点总结( | 随着新季玉米上市量逐步增加,原料玉米供应较为充裕,行业开机率持续回升,供应端压力增加。不过,当前供需结构良好,下游 | | --- | --- | | 淀粉) | 需求尚可,企业走货顺畅。截至11月19日,全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量110.9万吨,较上周下降2.40万吨,周降幅2.12%,月 | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | 玉米系产业日报 2025-11-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | -7 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 吨) 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 1 玉米淀粉月间价差(1-3):(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) -13588 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 2168 -69 932364 | | 2473 0 219992 ...
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251118
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 09:02
,基层种植惜售情绪升温,上量节奏有所放缓,同时本地粮质偏差,催生对东北粮源的采购需求,但车皮 紧张东北粮源入关不畅,市场供应逐步偏紧,企业价格继续小幅上调。盘面来看,近日受现货走强提振, 玉米期价整体走势有所偏强,短期观望。 | | 随着新季玉米上市量逐步增加,原料玉米供应较为充裕,行业开机率持续回升,供应端压力增加。不过, | | --- | --- | | 观点总结( | 当前供需结构良好,下游需求尚可,企业走货顺畅。截至11月12日,全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量113.3 | | 玉米) | | | | 万吨,较上周下降0.50万吨,周降幅0.44%,月增幅0.44%;年同比增幅27.59%。盘面来看,近期淀粉随 | | 观点总结( | 今日暂无消息 | | | 玉米市场同步震荡收涨,短期观望。 | | 淀粉) 重点关注 | 今日暂无消息 | | 数据来源第三方,观点仅供参考。市场有风险,投资需谨慎! | | 玉米系产业日报 2025-11-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 -14 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- ...
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251117
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 09:59
对东北粮源的采购需求,但车皮紧张东北粮源入关不畅,市场供应逐步偏紧,企业价格继续小幅上调。盘 面来看,近日受现货走强提振,玉米期价整体走势有所偏强,短期观望。 玉米系产业日报 2025-11-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | -3 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2182 | | | 2489 | -16 | | | 吨) 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 6 玉米淀粉月间价差(1-3):(日,元/吨) | -61 | | | 2 | -3 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) -13255 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 934047 | | | 227112 | -10823 | | | -1115 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -121652 | | | -53346 | -1874 | ...
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251106
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the US, as the corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, but the recent rise in soybeans and wheat provides spill - over support. In China, the main producing areas are in the stage of releasing sales pressure, with sufficient market supply. Feed and deep - processing rigid demand exists, and the expansion of CGS storage acquisition boosts traders' enthusiasm. The futures market showed a slightly stronger trend at the end of the day, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - **Corn Starch**: With the increase in new - season corn supply and the recovery of processing profits, the industry's operating rate has continuously rebounded, increasing supply - side pressure. However, downstream signing and提货 have slowed down slightly, and inventory has increased slightly. The futures market fluctuated and closed higher along with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the 20 - corn starch futures active contract was 2469 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the corn monthly spread (1 - 5) was 18 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) was - 90 yuan/ton; the CS - C spread of the main contract was 345 yuan/ton [2]. - **Positions**: The futures positions of the active contracts of yellow corn and corn starch were 970616 hands and 222626 hands respectively, with an increase of 34867 hands and 7374 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of corn and corn starch were - 91289 hands and - 59953 hands respectively, with an increase of 11371 hands and 723 hands. The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn and corn starch were 0 hands and 12453 hands respectively [2]. Outer - Disk Market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn was 4.25 cents per bushel, and the total position of CBOT corn was 1543065 contracts, an increase of 13269 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn was - 15017 contracts, a decrease of 51186 contracts [2]. Spot Market - **Corn Prices**: The average spot price of corn was 2236.47 yuan/ton, down 1.18 yuan; the flat - hatch price of corn at Jinzhou Port was 2150 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn was 2054.11 yuan/ton, up 69.58 yuan; the international freight of imported corn was 0 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Corn Starch Prices**: The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang were 2510 yuan/ton, 2750 yuan/ton, and 2680 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the main corn starch contract was 41 yuan, down 18 yuan; the basis of the main corn contract was - 18.82 yuan, down 2.33 yuan [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The average spot price of wheat was 2487.67 yuan/ton, down 3.51 yuan; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 291 yuan, down 7 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder was - 236 yuan, down 2 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Sowing and Yield Forecast**: The predicted sowing areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine were 36.44 million hectares, etc., and the predicted yields were 131 million tons, etc. [2]. - **Inventory**: The corn inventory in southern ports was 12.7 million tons, and the deep - processing corn inventory was 282.7 million tons, an increase of 49.3 million tons. The corn inventory in northern ports was 108 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises was 112.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons; the monthly import volume of corn was 6 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch was 12780 tons, a decrease of 2020 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Output and Consumption**: The monthly output of feed was 201.5 million tons; the weekly consumption of deep - processing corn was 8.99 million tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate was 68.42%, and the starch enterprise operating rate was 58.86%, an increase of 3.24 percentage points [2]. - **Profit**: The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin were 59 yuan/ton, 124 yuan/ton, and 114 yuan/ton respectively, with a decrease of 5 yuan/ton, 8 yuan/ton, and no change [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn were 9.31% and 7.38% respectively, with a decrease of 0.04 percentage points and 0.17 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options of corn were 8.12%, an increase of 1.11 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of November 3, the planting progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's Paraná state in the 2025/26 season was 99%, up from 98% last week and the same as last year [2]. - China will cancel the maximum 15% retaliatory tariffs on some US agricultural products starting from November 10, while retaining the 10% additional tax [2]. - Analysts expect that as of November 2, the US corn harvest was 83% complete, up from 72% a week ago [2].
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251105
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 09:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, as the U.S. corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, though the recent significant rise in U.S. soybeans provides spill - over support for U.S. corn prices. In the domestic market, the Northeast has sufficient supply, and the upward space for spot prices is limited. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, prices fluctuate slightly. Corn futures prices are in low - level consolidation, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For starch, with the increasing supply of new - season corn and the recovery of processing profits and industry operating rates, supply - side pressure is rising. However, downstream signing and picking up have slowed down, and inventory has increased slightly. Starch futures are oscillating in tandem with the corn market, and short - term watching is advised [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2134 yuan/ton, corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 4 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is - 101 yuan/ton. Futures positions, net buying volume of the top 20 positions, and registered warehouse receipts for both corn and corn starch are also provided [2]. 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is - 4 cents/bushel, CBOT corn total positions are 1543065 (weekly), and non - commercial net long positions are - 51186 (weekly) [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2234.31 yuan/ton, and the factory - quoted prices of corn starch in different regions such as Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are provided. There are also data on import prices, freight, and various price spreads [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sowing areas and yields of corn in the U.S., Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are presented. Corn inventories in southern and northern ports and deep - processing inventories are also included [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventories in ports, starch enterprise inventories, import and export volumes of corn and corn starch, and feed production are shown [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Deep - processing corn consumption, corn starch processing profits in different regions, alcohol and starch enterprise operating rates are provided [2]. 3.7 Option Market - Historical volatility and implied volatility of corn options are given [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Analysts expect that as of November 2, the U.S. corn harvest was 83% complete, higher than the previous week's estimate. S&P Global Commodity Insights predicts that the U.S. 2025 corn output will be 16.803 billion bushels, higher than last month's forecast [2]. 3.9 Key Focus - Thursday and Friday's mysteel corn weekly consumption, as well as starch enterprise operating rates and inventory situations should be monitored [3].
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251104
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 09:09
玉米系产业日报 2025-11-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | -6 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 6 玉米淀粉月间价差(1-3):(日,元/吨) 吨) | 2135 -97 | 2444 -11 | -9 -2 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) 9833 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 927070 | 213454 | -479 | | | -2229 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -87776 | -63035 | -1588 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) 2385 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) 手) | 66351 | 12453 | 0 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) 2 | 340 | | | | 外盘市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):CBOT玉米 ...
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251029
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 09:32
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Views - For corn, with the U.S. corn harvest advancing, supply pressure will gradually increase, but the expected lower U.S. corn yield and the Sino - U.S. trade agreement expectation support the market. In China, the new corn supply is increasing, leading to a slight decline in purchase prices. Corn futures prices are in a low - level consolidation [2]. - For corn starch, the increasing supply of raw corn weakens cost support, and the substitution of tapioca starch squeezes market demand. However, the lower - than - usual industry operation rate, good order fulfillment, and slightly decreased inventory are positive factors. Starch futures prices move in sync with the corn market and are recommended for short - term observation [2][3]. Section Summaries Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2116 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2427 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton. Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 925389 hands, and corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 208744 hands, down 1335 hands [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 3.75 cents/bushel, and the total open interest is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts. Non - commercial net long positions are - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2242.75 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream - Forecasted corn planting areas in the U.S., Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 427.11, 36.44, 22.6, 44.3, and 32 million hectares respectively, with forecasted yields of 53, 7.5, 295, 44.3, and 32 million tons respectively, all unchanged [2]. Industry - Corn inventories in southern and northern ports are 9.3 and 11 million tons respectively, and the starch enterprise weekly inventory is 112.8 million tons, down 1.2 million tons [2]. Downstream - The monthly output of feed is 201.5 million tons, and the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is 128 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton [2]. Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.48%, down 0.43%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.24%, up 0.74% [2]. Industry News - As of October 26, the U.S. corn harvest was 72% complete, up from 59% a week ago. As of October 25, Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn planting was 40.0% complete, up from 33.2% last week [2].
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251023
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 11:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the non - release of the crop progress report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, causing cautious market trading. As the U.S. corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, putting downward pressure on U.S. corn prices. However, the estimated lower corn yield in the U.S. this year than the previous USDA forecast provides some support for prices [3]. - In the domestic Northeast region, the accelerated harvest of new - season corn, the purchase of new grain by multiple Sinograin direct - affiliated warehouses, and the improvement of corn storage conditions have led to a slowdown in the shipment of some growers. Although deep - processing enterprises have raised quotes, the pressure of concentrated supply of new - season corn still exists, and prices fluctuate slightly. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the remaining grain in the market is scarce, and the market supply is increasing rapidly, causing the purchase price to fluctuate weakly [3]. - For corn starch, the increasing supply of new - season corn reduces cost support, and the substitution advantage of tapioca starch squeezes market demand. However, the industry's operating rate is lower than the same period in previous years, the supply - side pressure is not large, and enterprise inventories have slightly declined. The corn starch market is generally in a bearish trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2140 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 1 - 5 monthly spread is - 104 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 892,982 lots, up 39,613 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 74,538 lots, up 1,689 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 61,968 lots, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2450 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the 11 - 1 monthly spread is - 21 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 207,369 lots, up 5,801 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 51,697 lots, up 7,186 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 12,504 lots, unchanged; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 344 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 423.75 cents/bushel, up 4 cents; the total open interest is 1,543,065 contracts, up 13,269 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 51,186 contracts, down 15,017 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2253.33 yuan/ton, down 4.91 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2180 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1981.94 yuan/ton, down 0.33 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 44 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 113.33 yuan/ton, down 11.91 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2510 yuan/ton, 2750 yuan/ton, and 2680 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 84 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 490 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 299 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 184 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown areas: In the U.S., it is 425.26 million hectares; in Brazil, it is 131 million hectares; in Argentina, it is 53 million hectares; in China, it is 295 million hectares; in Ukraine, it is 32 million hectares, all unchanged except for Ukraine which is up 1.5 million hectares [2]. - Forecasted yields: In the U.S., it is 36.44 million tons; in Brazil, it is 22.6 million tons; in Argentina, it is 7.5 million tons; in China, it is 44.3 million tons, all unchanged except for Brazil which is up 0.55 million tons [2]. - Corn inventories: In southern ports, it is 38.7 million tons, up 5.5 million tons; in northern ports, it is 93 million tons, down 22 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 203.6 million tons, down 8.2 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 4 million tons, down 2 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14,800 tons, down 1,140 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2,927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profits: In Shandong, it is 75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Hebei, it is 89 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, it is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed: The sample feed corn inventory days are 24.44 days, down 0.05 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 122.31 million tons, up 3.04 million tons [2]. - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 53.19%, down 1.77%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 55.62%, down 1.12% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 8.32%, up 0.18%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.88%, up 0.06% [2]. - Corn option implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.28%, down 0.13%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.28%, down 0.13% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 20, the planting progress of the first - season corn in the 2025/26 season in Brazil's Paraná state was 94%, up from 90% last week [2]. - The Trump administration plans to provide a new round of aid funds to farmers affected by the trade war and bumper harvests and restart some core functions of the U.S. Department of Agriculture during the government shutdown [2].
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251020
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 11:32
| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 21 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2138 | | 2380 | 6 | | | 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) -7 玉米淀粉月间价差(11-1):(日,元/吨) | -112 | 吨) | -30 | -20 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) 30648 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 800344 | | 53048 | -10702 | | | -9115 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -47627 | | -52803 | -3788 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) 12615 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 49324 | 手) | 12756 | -50 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) -7 | 319 | | | | | | 期 ...