。 | 观点总结（ | 随着前期检修企业陆续复工，近来玉米淀粉行业开机率有所回升，供应端压力增加。同时，下游需求仍处淡季，签单走货欠佳，玉 | | --- | --- | | 淀粉） | 米淀粉供大于求格局明显。截至8月20日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量133.9万吨，较上周增加0.70万吨，周增幅0.53%，月增 | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 幅2.14%；年同比增幅25.61%。盘面来看，淀粉总体仍维持偏弱趋势，偏空思路对待。 | 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 玉米系产业日报 2025-08-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2164 | 6 | 2471 | -4 | | | 玉米月间价差(1-5) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - For the corn market, the USDA's August supply - demand report is overall bearish, causing international corn prices to decline. In the domestic market, factors such as continuous auctions of imported corn in the Northeast, the release of old - stock corn, good growth of new - season corn, and weak market sentiment lead to a weak trend in the corn market, suggesting a bearish approach [2]. - For the corn starch market, with the resumption of operations of previously - overhauled enterprises, the industry's operating rate has increased, leading to greater supply pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a clear oversupply situation. The market shows a weak trend, and a bearish approach is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2170 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 74 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is 2563 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures holdings of active contracts: 29682 hands for yellow corn, 925944 hands for corn starch; net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 93342 hands for corn starch and - 22833 hands for corn [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 113481 hands for yellow corn, 7450 hands for corn starch [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 321 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 0.75 cents/bushel; total CBOT corn positions are 406.5 (weekly), and non - commercial net long positions are - 25206 (weekly) [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2391.37 yuan/ton, down 2.55 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2710 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The flat - hatch price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 1927.47 yuan/ton, up 1.42 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 398.93 million hectares, and the predicted yield is 35.12 million tons, down 0.25 million tons [2]. - The predicted yields of corn in Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern ports are 75.1 million tons, down 14.5 million tons; deep - processing corn inventories are 340.2 million tons, down 24.1 million tons [2]. - Corn inventories at northern ports are 247 million tons, down 22 million tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 133.2 million tons, up 1.2 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 thousand tons, down 13.28 thousand tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 117 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The inventory days of sample feed corn are 29.61 days, down 0.83 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is - 61 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The deep - processing consumption of corn is 114.06 million tons, down 2.4 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 67 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 42%, down 1.08%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 55.9%, up 2.07% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.89%, down 3.48%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.89%, down 1.73% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.6%, down 11.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.6%, down 11.64% [2]. Industry News - The Midwest crop inspection activity of the US Professional Farmers (ProFarmer) organization reported crop growth problems on the first day, including soil cracking and lack of surface soil moisture [2]. - In July 2025, China's corn imports were 6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10 million tons (62.5%) and a year - on - year decrease of 103 million tons (94.9%) [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report shows that the estimated sown area of US corn in the 2025/26 season is increased from 95.2 million acres in July to 97.3 million acres, and the yield per acre is increased from 181 bushels/acre to 188.8 bushels/acre [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For corn, international corn prices are under continuous pressure due to the high output prospects in the US, where the corn excellent - rate remains good and the weather is favorable for growth. In the domestic market, factors such as import corn reserve auctions, falling international grain prices, and lower new - season corn costs lead to a pessimistic outlook on forward corn prices. The spot price is weak, and the corn futures price is generally bearish [2]. - For corn starch, the supply - demand imbalance is obvious. The resumption of operations of previously - overhauled enterprises increases supply pressure, while downstream demand is in the off - season. The inventory has increased, and the starch futures price has been oscillating weakly at a low level, also suggesting a bearish view [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2267 yuan/ton, with a decrease in positions and a decrease in the number of registered warrants. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders has decreased. The CS - C spread of the main contract has decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2660 yuan/ton, with a decrease in positions and unchanged registered warrants. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders has decreased [2]. - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 402 cents/bushel, with an increase in total positions and an increase in non - commercial net long positions [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2395.49 yuan/ton, with a slight increase. The flat - hold price at Jinzhou Port has decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The import cost has decreased slightly, and the international freight remains unchanged [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang remain unchanged. The basis of the main contract has decreased, and the spread between Shandong starch and corn has increased [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2437.44 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted yields of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine remain unchanged. The sown areas also remain stable [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports has increased, while that at northern ports has decreased. The inventory of deep - processing corn has decreased [2]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn has decreased, and the monthly export volume of corn starch has increased [2]. - Production: The monthly output of feed has increased [2]. Downstream Situation - Consumption: The consumption of deep - processing corn has increased, and the开机率 of alcohol and starch enterprises has increased [2]. - Processing profit: The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong and Jilin has increased, while that in Hebei has decreased [2]. Option Market - The historical volatility of corn has changed slightly, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options has decreased [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending July 31, 2025, to be between 150 and 290 tons. The Bystro Canal at the mouth of the Danube in Ukraine will reopen, which is expected to have a positive impact on grain exports and the shipping market. The excellent - rate of US corn is 73%, higher than the market expectation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the corn market, the high-quality rate of US corn remains good, leading to continuous pressure on international corn prices. In the domestic market, the trade inventory in the Northeast production area has dropped to a low level, and the trading activity is poor with little price fluctuation. Wheat has substitution advantages, and import corn auctions and deferred pick - up policies restrict the corn market. The corn futures price has declined again due to the general decline of commodities and remains weak overall [2]. - For the corn starch market, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. The corn starch futures price has been oscillating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2288 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the 9 - 1 month spread is 79 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract is 769,791 lots, up 19,476 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22,570 lots, up 6,231 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 154,091 lots, down 2,500 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 372 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2660 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the 9 - 11 month spread is 93 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract is 162,157 lots, down 2,989 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 21,587 lots, down 3,822 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots, down 2,573 lots [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 412.5 cents/bushel, up 1.75 cents; the total position is 1,493,670 contracts (weekly), up 23,275 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133,883 contracts (weekly), down 4,426 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2404.02 yuan/ton, down 5.39 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 2005.3 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 46 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 116.02 yuan/ton, up 18.61 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 20 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 356 yuan/ton (weekly), down 34 yuan [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2440.5 yuan/ton, down 0.67 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 175 yuan/ton (weekly), down 4 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is 23 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Corn production forecasts: The predicted annual production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, all unchanged [2]. - Corn planting area forecasts: The predicted annual planting area in the US is 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, and in China is 44.3 million hectares, all unchanged [2]. - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 26.9 tons (weekly), down 56.9 tons; at northern ports is 304 tons (weekly), down 13 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 400.5 tons (weekly), down 26.5 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 16 tons, down 3 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly output of feed is 2.7621 million tons, up 98,100 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed: The inventory days of sample feed corn is 30.87 days (weekly), down 0.47 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 106.24 tons (weekly), down 3.81 tons [2]. - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 38.63% (weekly), up 0.29%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 51.76% (weekly), up 6.3%; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Hebei is - 48 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Jilin is - 67 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. 3.7 Option Market - For corn options, the 20 - day historical volatility is 7.55%, up 0.75%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.8%, up 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.56%, down 1.03%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.56%, down 1.03% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - The US will impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting from August 1st due to India's high tariffs and non - monetary trade barriers [2]. - The Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) predicts that the corn export volume in July 2025 will be 4.18 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and much higher than that in June, but 11.3% lower than that in July last year [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the high - quality rate of US corn is 73%, in line with expectations, down from 74% the previous week and higher than 68% in the same period last year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, the international corn price is under continuous pressure due to the high output prospect as the good rate of US corn remains high. In the domestic market, the corn supply is tight with low remaining grain in the Northeast and low channel inventory. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. Although the transaction rate of imported grain auctions has slightly increased, the actual transaction volume is limited and the delivery speed is slow. However, the low processing profit and开机率 of deep - processing enterprises and the relatively safe inventory of feed enterprises limit the upward momentum of corn prices. The corn futures price has been fluctuating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the industry's开机率 is at a low level in recent years due to continuous production losses, reducing supply pressure. But the demand in the civil and paper - making markets is poor, and it is the traditional off - season for downstream demand, so the supply - demand situation remains loose. The starch inventory has decreased slightly. The starch futures price has been fluctuating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2302 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 1) is 87 yuan/ton; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 794,329 hands, down 11,231 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 22,888 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 160,521 hands, down 7,358 hands; the basis of the main contract is 107.22 yuan/ton, up 18.38 yuan [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2666 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 11) is 81 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 175,002 hands, up 1,570 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 16,047 hands, up 9,412 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 6,499 hands, down 100 hands; the basis of the main contract is - 3 yuan, down 18 yuan; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 364 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 413.25 cents/bushel, down 5.75 cents; the total holding volume is 1,493,670 contracts, up 23,275 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133,883 contracts, down 4,426 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2409.22 yuan/ton, up 1.38 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1997.13 yuan/ton, up 3.86 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 46 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Shijiazhuang is 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 26.9 million tons, all unchanged. The predicted sown area in the US is 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, and in China is 44.3 million hectares, all unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 30.5 million tons, down 56.9 million tons; at northern ports is 304 million tons, down 13 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 400.5 million tons, down 26.5 million tons; the monthly import volume is 16 million tons, down 3 million tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 131.1 million tons, down 3.5 million tons; the monthly export volume is 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons [2][3]. - Feed production: The monthly output is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the sample feed corn inventory days is 30.87 days, down 0.47 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 106.24 million tons, down 3.81 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Corn starch processing profit: In Shandong is - 117 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Hebei is - 52 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is - 66 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. -开机率: The alcohol enterprise开机率 is 38.63%, up 0.29%; the starch enterprise开机率 is 45.46%, down 4.83% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.96%, up 0.21%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.49%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.05%, up 0.61%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.05%, up 0.61% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of the week ending July 24, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,522,174 tons, compared with the revised 984,901 tons last week and 1,070,719 tons in the same period last year [2]. - As of July 24, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/2025 season was 68%, 13 percentage points higher than last week but still behind the 91% in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good rate of US corn was 73%, in line with expectations, down from 74% last week and up from 68% in the same period last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - For the corn market, the international corn price is under continuous pressure due to a good initial growth rate and high output prospects. In the domestic market, after traders sold their grains, their inventories tightened, and they still preferred to hold prices. Although the transaction rate of imported grain auctions increased slightly this week, the actual trading volume was limited, and the delivery speed was not as expected, failing to form large - scale effective supply. However, the deep - processing profit was under pressure, the enterprise operation rate was low, and feed enterprises' inventories were relatively safe, so the price increase momentum was insufficient, and the price generally maintained a narrow - range adjustment. [2] - For the corn starch market, affected by continuous production losses, the industry operation rate remained at a low level in recent years, and the supply pressure weakened significantly. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets was poor, and the downstream demand was in the traditional off - season, so the supply - demand situation was still loose. Recently, the starch price rebounded at a low level, and short - term observation was recommended. [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2319 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the 9 - 1 month spread was 93 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the open interest of the active contract was 805,560 lots, down 46,546 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 21,284 lots, down 9,284 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 167,879 lots, down 1,992 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract was 364 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [2] - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2683 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the 9 - 11 month spread was 82 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the open interest of the active contract was 173,432 lots, down 17,087 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 25,119 lots, down 8,297 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 6,599 lots, down 3,485 lots. [2] - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract was 419 cents/bushel, down 2 cents; the total open interest was 1,470,395 contracts, down 28,569 contracts; the non - commercial net long position was - 129,457 contracts, up 12,305 contracts. [2] Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price was 2407.84 yuan/ton, unchanged; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn was 1993.27 yuan/ton, up 3.72 yuan; the international freight of imported corn was 46 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract was 88.84 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. [2] - Corn starch: The ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang were 2680 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2840 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract was 15 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn was 356 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan. [2] - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat was 2440.94 yuan/ton, down 3.62 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 175 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder was 12 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - Production: The predicted annual corn production in the US was 401.85 million tons, in Brazil was 131 million tons, in Argentina was 53 million tons, in China was 295 million tons, and in Ukraine was 30.5 million tons, all unchanged. [2] - Sown area: The predicted annual sown area of corn in the US was 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil was 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina was 7.5 million hectares, and in China was 44.3 million hectares, all unchanged. [2] - Inventory: The corn inventory at southern ports was 26.9 million tons, down 56.9 million tons; at northern ports was 304 million tons, down 13 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory was 400.5 million tons, down 26.5 million tons. [2] Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn was 16 million tons, down 3 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch was 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons. [2] - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons. [2] - Processing profit: The corn starch processing profit in Shandong was - 114 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; in Hebei was - 52 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin was - 66 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Downstream Situation - Feed: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the sample feed corn inventory days were 30.87 days, down 0.47 days; the deep - processing corn consumption was 106.24 million tons, down 3.81 million tons. [2] - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The alcohol enterprise operation rate was 38.63%, up 0.29%; the starch enterprise operation rate was 45.46%, down 4.83%. [2] Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility was 6.75%, up 0.22%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 9.44%, down 0.48%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 9.44%, down 0.48%. [2] Industry News - As of July 23, the 2024/25 corn harvest progress in Argentina was 84.0%, 5.1% higher than a week ago, 2.6% lower than the same period last year, but 6.7% higher than the five - year average. [2] - As of July 24, Ukraine had harvested 3.236 million hectares of grains (including legumes), accounting for 29% of the planned area, with a harvest output of 10.347 million tons and an average yield of 3.2 tons per hectare. [2] - As of the week of July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and 7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. [2] Key Points to Watch - Monitor the weekly corn consumption and the operation and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Internationally, the good early - stage growth rate of US corn leads to high output prospects, keeping international corn prices under pressure. Domestically, after a round of grain sales, traders' inventories are tight, and they have a strong price - holding mentality. Although the transaction rate of imported grain auctions has slightly increased, the actual volume is limited, and the delivery speed is slow. However, due to the low profit of deep - processing enterprises and relatively safe feed enterprise inventories, the price increase momentum is insufficient, and the price maintains a narrow - range adjustment. The corn futures market has been in a low - level oscillation recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - **Corn Starch**: Affected by continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. But the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and it is the traditional off - season for downstream demand, so the supply - demand situation remains loose. The starch inventory has decreased slightly, and the futures price has rebounded at a low level recently. Short - term observation is recommended [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Corn**: The closing price of the active contract is 2318 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 9029 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume decreased by 3247 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract decreased by 3 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the active contract is 2669 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 2247 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume decreased by 1100 hands [2]. Outer Market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 417.75 cents/bushel, up 0.25 cents; the total position decreased by 28569 contracts; the non - commercial net long position increased by 12305 contracts [2]. Spot Market - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2408.82 yuan/ton, down 0.2 yuan/ton; the import CIF price is 1989.01 yuan/ton, down 4.69 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract increased by 2.8 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang remain unchanged; the basis of the main contract decreased by 7 yuan/ton; the spread between Shandong starch and corn decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. Substitute Spot Price - The average spot price of wheat is 2444.56 yuan/ton, up 1.95 yuan/ton; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch increased by 40 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder decreased by 2 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sowing areas and yields of corn in major countries such as the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine remain unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - **Corn**: The inventories at southern and northern ports decreased by 4.8 and 360,000 tons respectively; the import volume decreased by 30,000 tons; the consumption of deep - processed corn decreased by 57,300 tons [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The export volume increased by 4060 tons; the industry's weekly inventory decreased by 35,000 tons to 1311,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 2.60%, a monthly increase of 0.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.40% [2][3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed increased by 981,000 tons; the sample feed's corn inventory days decreased by 0.24 days; the alcohol enterprise's operating rate decreased by 4.62 percentage points; the starch enterprise's operating rate decreased by 4.83 percentage points; the processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin remained unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn decreased by 0.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options increased by 0.72 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect the net sales volume of US corn exports from July 10 - 17, 2025, to be between 500,000 and 1.6 million tons; Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintains the 2025 US corn yield per acre at a record 182 bushels; as of July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 74%, the same as the previous week and higher than the same period last year [2]. Key Focus - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For corn, the international corn price is under continuous pressure due to the good initial growth rate and high output prospects. In the domestic market, the auction volume of imported corn is decreasing, and the price has dropped due to increased supply and limited demand. Recently, the price has rebounded slightly due to reduced supply and rigid demand from processing enterprises. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [2]. - For corn starch, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. The starch price has rebounded recently following the rebound of corn [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2320.70 yuan/ton, with a change of 6 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2664.42 yuan/ton, with a change of - 8 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1036253 lots, with a decrease of 31422 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 236649 lots, with a decrease of 25165 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 28996 lots, and for corn starch are - 16750 lots, with a decrease of 3032 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 177343 lots, with a decrease of 940 lots; for corn starch are 12184 lots, with a decrease of 150 lots [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 344 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 7.25 cents/bushel; the total open interest of CBOT corn is 1498964 contracts, an increase of 297 contracts [2]. - The non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 141762 contracts, an increase of 13764 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2408.73 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.62 yuan/ton; the factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2360 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 1988.98 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.97 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 0 dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is - 2.27 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 45 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, with no change; the predicted output is 131 million tons, with no change [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in Brazil is 35.37 million hectares, with no change; the predicted output is 22.6 million tons, with no change [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in Argentina is 22.6 million hectares, with no change; the predicted output is 7.5 million tons, with no change [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in China is 295 million hectares, with no change; the predicted output is 44.3 million tons, with no change [2]. - The predicted output of corn in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, with no change [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports is 83.8 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons; the corn inventory in northern ports is 317 tons, a decrease of 36 tons [2]. - The deep - processing corn inventory is 427 tons, a decrease of 16.6 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 134.6 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 19 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27.78 tons, an increase of 4.06 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption is 110.05 tons, a decrease of 5.73 tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 38.34%, a decrease of 4.62%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 50.29%, an increase of 0.15% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.13%, an increase of 0.17%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.94%, a decrease of 0.13% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.79%, an increase of 0.23%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.8%, an increase of 0.24% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - As of July 16, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 Argentine corn was 78.9%, 8.7% higher than a week ago [2]. - As of July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and higher than the same period last year [2]. - The soil moisture in some western US states is in short supply [2]. 3.9 Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, international price advantage exists, US output outlook is good due to increased planting area and good early - growth rate. In China, Northeast产区 has low remaining grain, strong bullish sentiment, high storage costs for traders, and low selling enthusiasm. Feed demand decreases as wheat is used as a substitute. The futures market is in a volatile state, and short - term participation is recommended [2][3] - For corn starch, production losses lead to low industry operating rates. Supported by reduced supply pressure and firm corn prices, the spot price performs well, and inventory continues to decline. The futures market is also volatile, and short - term participation is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active contract is 2383 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the monthly spread (9 - 1) is 103 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 942750 hands, down 27780 hands; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 42498 hands, down 6094 hands; the registered warehouse receipts are 210251 hands, down 2300 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 360 yuan/ton [2] - Corn starch: The closing price of the active contract is 2743 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton; the monthly spread (9 - 11) is 7 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 156387 hands, down 499 hands; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 16519 hands, down 262 hands; the registered warehouse receipts are 23322 hands, down 500 hands [2] 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 409 cents/bushel, down 2.25 cents/bushel; the total open interest is 1534968 contracts, down 57509 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 23326 contracts, down 130570 contracts [2] 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2436.27 yuan/ton, up 3.92 yuan/ton; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1880.13 yuan/ton, down 19.71 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton; the basis of the main contract is - 1.08 yuan/ton [2] - Corn starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract is - 13 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 420 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2] - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2451 yuan/ton, up 1.28 yuan/ton; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 133 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is 25 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Planting area: The predicted planting area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, up 24.22 million hectares; in Brazil is 35.37 million hectares, up 1.82 million hectares; in Argentina is not provided; in China is 295 million hectares, up 0.08 million hectares; in Ukraine is not provided [2] - Yield: The predicted yield of corn in the US is 131 million tons, up 5 million tons; in Brazil is 22.6 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; in Argentina is 7.5 million tons, up 1.1 million tons; in China is 30.5 million tons, up 3.7 million tons; in Ukraine is not provided [2] - Inventory: The inventory of corn in southern ports is 113.3 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; the inventory of deep - processed corn is 456.7 million tons, down 2.5 million tons; the inventory of corn in northern ports is 371 million tons, down 11 million tons [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 19 million tons, up 1 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27.78 million tons, up 4.06 million tons [2] - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 105 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Hebei is - 47 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton; in Jilin is - 86 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed: The inventory days of sample feed corn is 32.59 days, down 0.48 days; the consumption of deep - processed corn is 118.92 million tons, up 1.3 million tons [2] - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 46.18%, up 2.38%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 51.15%, down 0.47% [2] 3.7 Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.51%, down 0.1%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.63%, down 0.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.54%, up 0.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.54%, up 0.29% [2] 3.8 Industry News - As of June 27, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn has reached 19.46% of the expected total planting area, lower than 47.14% in the same period last year due to late sowing and wet weather [2] - As of the week ending June 26, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1369961 tons, compared with the revised 1504057 tons last week and 831219 tons in the same period last year [2] - The US Department of Agriculture's planting area report shows that the corn planting area in the US in 2025 is 95.2 million acres, slightly lower than the 95.3 million acres estimated in March but 5% higher than in 2024. The quarterly grain inventory report shows that the US corn inventory in the quarter ending June 1, 2025, is 4.644 billion bushels, close to market expectations and 7% lower than in the same period last year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - For corn, the good condition of US corn and the easing of trade relations between China and the US have led to concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, the remaining grain in the Northeast is almost exhausted, traders are reluctant to sell due to high costs, and processing enterprises mainly consume inventory. However, the substitution of wheat for corn in feed has reduced corn's feed demand. The corn futures price has recently declined from its high and is in a volatile state, with short - term trading recommended [2]. - For corn starch, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. Supported by reduced supply pressure and firm corn prices, the spot price of corn starch is relatively stable, and industry inventory has been decreasing. Recently, affected by the decline in corn prices, starch prices have also weakened, and short - term trading is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2733 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2378 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Corn futures positions (active contract) decreased by 3240 hands, and corn starch futures positions (active contract) decreased by 7492 hands [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn starch decreased by 922 hands, and for corn decreased by 36404 hands. The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn decreased by 366 hands, and that of corn starch increased by 948 hands [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 355 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 7.25 cents per bushel. CBOT corn total positions decreased by 57,509 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 23,326 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2432.35 yuan/ton, up 1.37 yuan/ton. The factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton, unchanged; in潍坊 is 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The import CIF price of corn is 1899.84 yuan/ton, up 2.57 yuan/ton. The international freight of imported corn is unchanged [2]. - The basis of the corn starch main contract is - 13 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn main contract is 54.35 yuan/ton, up 7.37 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, up 1.82 million hectares; the predicted yield is 131 million tons, up 5 million tons. In Brazil, the sown area is 35.37 million hectares, and the yield is 22.6 million tons, up 0.3 million tons [2]. - In Argentina, the sown area is 7.5 million hectares, and the yield is 53 million tons, up 3 million tons. In China, the sown area is 295 million hectares, up 0.08 million hectares; the yield is 44.3 million tons, down 0.44 million tons [2]. - In Ukraine, the predicted yield of corn is 30.5 million tons, up 3.7 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern ports decreased by 0.2 million tons to 113.3 million tons; at northern ports decreased by 11 million tons to 371 million tons. Deep - processing corn inventories decreased by 2.5 million tons to 456.7 million tons [2]. - Starch enterprise weekly inventories decreased by 1.9 million tons to 130.9 million tons. The monthly import volume of corn is 19 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27,780 tons, up 4060 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2664 million tons, down 113.2 million tons. The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 105 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Hebei is - 47 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton; in Jilin is - 86 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The sample feed corn inventory days decreased by 0.48 days to 32.59 days. The deep - processing corn consumption increased by 1.3 million tons to 118.92 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 46.18%, up 2.38 percentage points; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 51.15%, down 0.47 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.61%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.67%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for corn is 10.25%, up 0.22 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30%, boosting the country's corn - ethanol industry [2]. - As of June 25, the harvest progress of 2024/25 Argentine corn is 55.3%, 5.7 percentage points higher than a week ago [2]. - As of the week of June 22, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 70%, lower than the market expectation of 72% [2]. 3.9 Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]