国有大行之后，城商行机会如何 20251123 摘要 银行股上涨受多重因素支撑，包括 A 股市场震荡带来的资金关注、资金 配置行为的持续、行业利差企稳以及不良贷款率下降，为行业价值重估 提供基础。 合理估值角度，国内优质城商行市盈率显著低于海外优质区域性银行， 与国内大型银行相比也存在低估，未来三五年跑赢大行可能性更高。 核心城市优质小银行抗风险能力强于大型商业银行，在经济波动期间利 润增速稳定性更高，坏账率高点也低于大型商业银行。 经济复苏期银行股通常表现不错，但不同类型银行表现存在差异，长期 来看，优质城商行在绝大多数情况下能跑赢四大国有银行。 大保险公司倾向于投资大市值标的如农行等大型国有银行，而小保险公 司则选择与自身资金体量匹配的小市值标的，如优质城商行。 市场传言按揭贷款贴息政策表明政府认为银行息差已接近底线，对稳定 市场预期具有重要意义，但实际影响取决于政策力度。 公募基金明年将增加对银行股的配置，优先考虑优质城商行，其次是股 份制银行，再次才是大型国有银行，优质城商行更具投资价值。 Q&A 近期市场波动较大，银行股表现如何？ 最近几天市场波动明显，尤其是上周五市场出现明显回调。然而，银行股表现 ...

A股上市银行再现股东、高管增持潮！ 近日，包括成都银行、南京银行、常熟银行、沪农商行等上市银行纷纷发布公告称，获得重要股东或董 监高增持，部分增持动作仍在进行当中。这也是继10月以来，厦门银行、齐鲁银行、青岛银行等相继披 露类似公告后，近期又一批获增持的上市银行。 其中成都银行于11月21日晚间公告称，该行两大股东成都产业资本控股集团有限公司（下称"成都产业 资本集团"）、成都欣天颐投资有限责任公司（下称"成都欣天颐"），合计耗资约6.11亿元增持该行股 份近3424.7万股。 公告显示，2025年8月27日至11月21日期间，成都产业资本集团和成都欣天颐通过集中竞价的方式分别 累计增持成都银行股份1404.48万股和2020.22万股，分别累计增持金额约2.53亿元和约3.58亿元。 阶段性增持后，目前成都产业资本集团的持股比例约为6.06%，成都欣天颐持股比例约为4.27%。公告 称，本次增持计划尚未实施完毕，两家公司将按照增持计划以自有资金继续增持成都银行股份。按照今 年4月公告，上述两家增持主体拟增持金额合计不低于7亿元，合计不高于14亿元。 就在上述公告发布的同一天，另一家上市城商行——南京银行也披 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu Bank's major shareholders have significantly increased their holdings, reflecting a broader trend of shareholder and management buybacks across the banking sector amid market adjustments [2][6]. Group 1: Shareholder Activity - Chengdu Industrial Capital Holding Group and Chengdu Xintianyi Investment have collectively increased their shares by approximately 34.247 million, with a total investment of 611 million yuan [2][3]. - Chengdu Industrial Capital Group raised its stake from 5.73% to 6.0618%, acquiring about 14.04475 million shares for approximately 253 million yuan [3]. - Chengdu Xintianyi invested 358 million yuan to acquire around 20.2022 million shares, increasing its holding from 3.80% to 4.2737% [3]. Group 2: Broader Market Trends - The banking sector has seen a net increase in shareholder or executive buybacks amounting to approximately 9.03 billion yuan, the highest among 31 industries [5][7]. - Other banks, such as Nanjing Bank and Qingdao Bank, have also experienced significant shareholder buybacks, with Nanjing Bank's largest shareholder, BNP Paribas, increasing its stake to 18.06% [6][7]. - Local industrial capital is actively investing in banks, with Qingdao Guoxin Financial Holdings increasing its stake in Qingdao Bank by 9.57 billion yuan [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Chengdu Bank's initial buyback plan was adjusted to remove the price cap and extend the implementation period to April 2026, with a total investment target of 700 million to 1.4 billion yuan [4]. - Analysts suggest that the banking sector's valuation is currently low, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.73, indicating potential for future growth [7][8]. - The focus for 2026 investment strategies includes high dividend stocks, structural opportunities in city and rural commercial banks, and recovery in retail banking demand [8].

A股上市银行再现股东、高管增持潮！ 近日，又有多家上市银行获得股东及高管真金白银增持，主要涉及城商行、农商行。11月21日，南京银行公告 称，近期再获外资大股东大额增持；同日晚间，成都银行公告显示，该行两家大股东再度联手增持约3424.7万 股。此外，近日沪农商行、常熟银行高管团队以自有资金增持自家股份，以示对自家银行长远发展前景的信 心。 值得一提的是，近日市场整体行情波动较大，而A股银行板块却逆势走强，中国银行、工商银行A股再度创出 历史新高，中国银行近一个月涨幅13.74%。部分券商分析师认为，四季度以来，银行股调整充分后重新上 涨，国有行指数率先再创新高，反映配置盘持续加仓；由于保险、AMC（资产管理公司）、产业资本等资金 具有持续配置意愿，银行板块投资仍有多项积极因素支撑。 成都银行、南京银行再获大股东增持 近日，包括成都银行、南京银行、常熟银行、沪农商行等上市银行纷纷发布公告称，获得重要股东或董监高增 持，部分增持动作仍在进行当中。这也是继10月以来，厦门银行、齐鲁银行、青岛银行等相继披露类似公告 后，近期又一批获增持的上市银行。 其中成都银行于11月21日晚间公告称，该行两大股东成都产业资本控股 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant share purchases by shareholders and executives in several listed banks, particularly city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, indicate confidence in the long-term development prospects of these institutions [1] Group 1: Shareholder and Executive Actions - Nanjing Bank announced a substantial increase in shareholding by foreign major shareholders [1] - Chengdu Bank reported that two major shareholders jointly increased their holdings by approximately 34.247 million shares [1] - Executives from Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank and Changshu Bank also purchased shares using their own funds, demonstrating confidence in their banks' future [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Despite overall market volatility, the A-share banking sector has shown resilience, with China Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China A shares reaching new historical highs [1] - China Bank's share price has increased by 13.74% over the past month [1] - Analysts suggest that after sufficient adjustments in bank stocks since the fourth quarter, state-owned bank indices have led the way to new highs, reflecting ongoing accumulation by institutional investors [1] Group 3: Investment Support Factors - Continuous investment interest from insurance companies, asset management companies (AMCs), and industrial capital supports the banking sector [1] - Multiple positive factors are believed to underpin investment in the banking sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of bank stocks in China is supported by improving fundamentals, with significant increases in stock prices and market capitalization, indicating investor confidence in the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On November 20, Chinese bank stocks rose, with China Bank's stock price increasing by 4%, reaching a historical high and a total market capitalization of 1.84 trillion yuan [1]. - The banking sector index has seen a cumulative increase of 7.15% since the National Day holiday, with several banks, including Chongqing Bank and Agricultural Bank, experiencing over 20% growth during this period [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the third quarter, 42 banks reported a total net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.68 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with a 2.81% growth in the third quarter alone, reflecting steady improvement in profitability [3]. - High dividend yields are a key attraction for investors, with 34 out of 42 banks having a dividend yield exceeding 3%, and 13 banks exceeding 5%, while the median dividend yield stands at 4.28% [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Activity - Significant shareholder buybacks have provided strong support for bank stock performance, with over 10.7 billion yuan in buybacks this year, leading the industry [4]. - Major shareholders have expressed confidence in the future growth prospects and long-term investment value of banks, with buybacks serving as a means to expand business scale and supplement capital [4]. Group 4: Market Trends and Outlook - Historical data indicates a 70% probability of absolute returns for bank stocks in November and December, with an 80% probability in January, suggesting a favorable seasonal trend for bank investments [4]. - In the current low-interest-rate environment, high-dividend bank stocks are seen as a safe haven for investors, especially as speculative trading decreases [4]. Group 5: Challenges Facing the Industry - The banking sector faces challenges, including a net interest margin of only 1.42% and a non-performing loan ratio of 1.52%, indicating potential profitability pressures if trends do not reverse [5]. - The investment focus is shifting from growth in scale to risk management, asset quality, and stable profitability, necessitating banks to enhance service efficiency and embrace digital transformation to remain competitive [5].

今日，银行板块表现强势，中国银行涨超4%，创历史新高。针对股价异动，中国银行董事会办公室投 资者关系团队相关工作人员表示："公司基本面未发生重大变化，目前正持续关注股价波动情况。此次 股价上涨，一方面得益于银行板块整体上涨趋势的带动，并非我行个例；另一方面，公司三季报披露的 主要经营数据保持稳健，基本面支撑下股价得到合理反映。" 此前，监管披露最新数据显示，截至今年三季度末，我国银行业金融机构本外币资产总额达474.3万亿 元，同比增长7.9%，商业银行净息差为1.42%，环比持平，其中股份制商业银行净息差环比提升0.01个 百分点。数据说明，银行业净息差企稳，盈利能力呈现积极信号，同时资产质量稳定，这都证明了行业 的强劲韧性。 银行ETF基金（515020）跟踪中证银行指数，当前有42只成分股，包括了六大行股票，也有股份制银行 和农商行股票。银行业净息差企稳，上市银行业绩向好，银行股投资价值凸显，想要布局银行板块，可 考虑通过诸如银行ETF基金（515020）等指数化投资工具入局。 ...

中信证券近日指出，金融统计数据报告显示，10月份银行扩表节奏边际放缓，主要是政府债发行靠前， 实体信贷需求仍待提振；居民存款和非银存款转移持续活跃，年底银行将加大对于流动性管理关注。三 季度行业息差初步企稳，同时监管持续释放对息差及盈利空间的关注，未来政策引导下定价要素有望改 善，盈利水平保持稳定。板块投资方面，低估值隐含的价值空间依旧显著；年底步入长线资金配置时 段，有助催化银行股市场表现，建议机构积极布局，收获高确定性回报。 银行板块19日盘中发力上扬，截至发稿，中国银行涨约3%，再创历史新高；光大银行、交通银行、工 商银行、建设银行等均走强。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Guoxin Financial Holdings has become the largest shareholder of Qingdao Bank with a total holding of 19.17% [1] - The banking sector is experiencing a mixed performance with increased shareholder activity, particularly from local state-owned and industrial capital, while facing pressure from public funds and northbound capital [1][2] Group 1: Shareholder Activity - Multiple city commercial banks and national banks have reported significant shareholder increases this year, including Chengdu Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Postal Savings Bank [1] - Public funds have reduced their holdings in bank stocks, with the proportion of public fund investment in bank stocks dropping to 1.78%, the lowest level in five years [2][3] - Northbound capital has also decreased its investment in banks, with a 31.66% decline in total market value held by northbound funds [3] Group 2: Market Performance - The banking sector saw an 8.68% decline in Q3 but rebounded with an 8.23% increase in Q4 as of November 11 [1] - The overall market style shift has led to a significant reallocation of funds from low-volatility bank stocks to high-growth sectors, with the Wind All A Index rising by 19.5% during the same period [4] Group 3: Institutional Investment Trends - Insurance and state-owned funds have maintained stable holdings in bank stocks, with state-owned funds holding a total market value of 4.5 trillion yuan [5][6] - Local state-owned and industrial capital are increasingly investing in city commercial banks, driven by regional financial resource integration needs and attractive valuations [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is a growing sentiment of recovery in the banking sector, with several banks announcing share buyback plans and improved core revenue capabilities [7] - Analysts suggest that Q4 presents structural recovery opportunities, particularly for quality regional banks and high-dividend state-owned banks [8]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Guoxin Chanin Holdings has become the largest shareholder of Qingdao Bank with a total holding of 19.17% [1] - The banking sector is experiencing a mixed performance with significant shareholder activity, particularly in the context of third-quarter financial reports [1][2] Shareholder Activity - Multiple city commercial banks and national banks have reported shareholding increases, including Chengdu Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Postal Savings Bank [1] - Public funds have reduced their holdings in bank stocks, with the proportion of public funds in bank stocks dropping to 1.78%, a decrease of 2.55 percentage points [2][3] Market Performance - The banking sector saw a decline of 8.68% in the third quarter but rebounded with an increase of 8.23% in the fourth quarter as of November 11 [1] - The overall market style shift has led to a significant reallocation of funds from low-volatility bank stocks to high-growth sectors [4] Fund Composition - Active funds have reduced their positions in major banks like China Merchants Bank and Jiangsu Bank, while some banks like Ningbo Bank and Chengdu Bank saw an increase in holdings [3] - Passive funds also exhibited a reduction in bank stock holdings, with a total market value of 841.12 billion yuan, down 5.67 percentage points [3] Institutional Investment Trends - Insurance and state-owned funds have maintained stable holdings in bank stocks, with state-owned funds holding a total market value of 4.5 trillion yuan [5][6] - Local state-owned capital is increasingly investing in city commercial banks, driven by regional financial resource integration needs and attractive valuations [6] Future Outlook - The fourth quarter has seen a wave of share buyback announcements from bank executives and major shareholders, signaling positive investment sentiment [7] - Analysts believe there are structural recovery opportunities in the banking sector, particularly for regional banks and high-dividend state-owned banks [7][8]