Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is expected to transition from a bottoming phase in 2025 to stable growth in 2026, driven by policy support and improved net interest margins, leading to a structural bull market in bank stocks. Group 1: 2025 Banking Sector Performance - In 2025, the banking sector demonstrated a structural bull market, with the Shenwan primary banking index rising by 16.2% as of December 16, 2025, and Agricultural Bank increasing by nearly 50% [1] - Regional leaders like Xiamen Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Qingdao Bank saw increases of over 20%, while some joint-stock banks had gains of less than 5% [1] - The funding landscape showed significant differentiation, with strategic funds like insurance and AMC increasing their holdings, while public funds and northbound capital reduced their positions significantly in Q3 [1] Group 2: Valuation and Financial Metrics - The Shenwan primary banking index's price-to-book (PB) ratio rose from a low of 0.42 in 2023 to 0.54 by December 16, 2025, indicating an upward shift in valuations for major state-owned banks and quality regional banks [2] - By Q3 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks was stable at 1.42%, with net profits for the first three quarters at 1.87 trillion yuan, unchanged from the previous year [2] - Non-performing loans increased to 3.52 trillion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.52%, but a provision coverage ratio of 207.15% provided a buffer against risks [2] Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - In 2026, the banking sector is expected to benefit from policy dividends, with net interest margins stabilizing, which will support revenue growth [3] - Analysts predict that the decline in net interest margins will further narrow, leading to positive growth in net interest income [3] - The asset quality is expected to show a mixed trend, with retail and small business exposures being the main sources of non-performing loans, while corporate exposures remain stable [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The differentiated performance of bank stocks in 2025 is likely to continue into 2026, with a focus on policy dividends, operational resilience, and valuation recovery [4] - High dividend stocks are seen as a stable investment choice, particularly regional banks with strong performance certainty [5] - Analysts suggest that banks with strong loan organization capabilities and stabilizing net interest margins will perform better, while those in a non-performing loan improvement cycle will have stronger profit release potential [5]

● 本报记者 吴杨 2025年，银行业在波动中完成经营筑底，银行股走出了国有大行领涨、区域性龙头表现亮眼的结构性行 情。这一年里，行业扛住息差收窄的压力，同时迎来政策托底、资金增配的支撑，压力与机遇并存的格 局，推动银行股的投资逻辑从单纯的红利博弈转向深度价值重估。那么，2026年银行股行情将如何演 绎？ 红利托底估值 想要看清2026年银行股的走势，先要把握2025年的行业演变逻辑。 2025年银行股的结构性牛市特征明显。截至12月16日收盘，今年以来申万一级银行业指数上涨16.2%， 农业银行上涨近50%，厦门银行、重庆银行、青岛银行等区域性龙头上涨超20%，部分股份制银行涨幅 不足5%。 资金面分化成为2025年银行股的另一特征。正如兴业证券分析师陈绍兴所言，2025年各类资金力量分化 明显：险资、AMC等战略配置型资金保持较大的增持力度，夯实板块基本盘；公募基金、北向资金等 交易型资金随行情波动，三季度大幅减仓至较低位，当前流出压力已缓解；被动ETF资金流入放缓，宽 基ETF更多扮演市场稳定器的角色。 从估值角度看，申万一级银行业指数PB（市净率）从2023年的低点0.42倍升至2025年12月16日 ...

|2025年12月5日 星期五| NO.1 央行：2025年12月5日开展10000亿元买断式逆回购操作 12月4日，央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年12月5日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率 招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月。 点评：中国人民银行开展买断式逆回购操作，持续向市场注入流动性，显示出货币政策延续支持性立 场，有助于稳定市场信心。 点评：业内专家表示，中小银行合并重组有利于减少高风险金融机构，降低风险防范化解成本。未来， 中小银行"减量提质"仍将持续。 NO.4 AMC出手增持银行股 据中证报，AMC再次出手增持银行股。光大银行近日披露的公告显示，中信金融资产再度增持该行A股 及H股股份，持股比例已升至9%。自2024年11月宣布以不超过40亿元增持光大银行股份的计划以来， 中信金融资产的增持动作持续落地。此外，三季度以来，险资也持续加码银行板块。截至三季度末，险 资持有银行股市值已超4000亿元。 点评：从AMC基于财务增厚与战略协同的布局，到险资锚定"高股息+低波动"的配置需求，银行股正凭 借多重优势，成为中长期资金的"核心锚点"。 免责声明 ...

● 本报记者 吴杨 AMC再次出手增持银行股。光大银行近日披露的公告显示，中信金融资产再度增持该行A股及H股股 份，持股比例已升至9%。自2024年11月宣布以不超过40亿元增持光大银行股份的计划以来，中信金融 资产的增持动作持续落地。 此外，三季度以来，险资也持续加码银行板块。截至三季度末，险资持有银行股市值已超4000亿元。从 AMC基于财务增厚与战略协同的布局，到险资锚定"高股息+低波动"的配置需求，银行股正凭借多重优 势，成为中长期资金的"核心锚点"。 再度出手 光大银行2025年三季度报告显示，截至三季度末，中信金融资产持有该行A股和H股合计47.39亿股。同 期，光大银行总资产为7.2万亿元，较年初稳步增长。 事实上，这并非是中信金融资产对光大银行的首次增持。早在今年7月，中信金融资产就增持该行A股 股份2.64亿股，H股股份2.79亿股，推动持股比例从7.08%升至8%。 回溯来看，中信金融资产对光大银行的股权布局早有规划。2024年11月，中信金融资产发布关于进一步 推进投资配置议案的公告，明确提出拟在前期投资基础上加大配置力度，计划在未来12个月内，以不超 过40亿元增持光大银行股份。 中信 ...

近期A股银行板块再现股东与高管"真金白银"增持热潮，南京银行、成都银行等城商行接连披露大额增 持公告。业内人士认为，银行股在震荡市中展现出强劲韧性。这场覆盖多家中小银行的增持行动，既传 递出银行对自身基本面的坚定信心，也折射出市场资金对高股息资产的配置偏好。 内外资同步发力 业内人士认为，近期银行股东的密集增持并非偶然，而是由经济复苏预期、业绩改善与估值修复逻辑共 同作用的结果。 ● 本报记者 石诗语 11月下旬，上市银行增持公告密集落地，内外资大股东与核心管理层形成增持合力。11月21日，南京银 行公告显示，法国巴黎银行（QFII）9月29日至11月20日，以自有资金通过上海证券交易所交易系统以 集中竞价交易方式增持该行股份1.28亿股，占该行总股本的1.04%。增持后，法国巴黎银行及法国巴黎 银行（QFII）合计持股比例由17.02%增至18.06%。 值得注意的是，这已是法国巴黎银行今年以来第二次增持南京银行。9月法国巴黎银行通过QFII渠道增 持南京银行1.08亿股，今年的两次增持合计超2.36亿股。除法国巴黎银行外，今年下半年以来，南京银 行还获得南京高科、紫金集团等股东的增持。 成都银行近期披露的 ...

国有大行之后，城商行机会如何 20251123 摘要 银行股上涨受多重因素支撑，包括 A 股市场震荡带来的资金关注、资金 配置行为的持续、行业利差企稳以及不良贷款率下降，为行业价值重估 提供基础。 合理估值角度，国内优质城商行市盈率显著低于海外优质区域性银行， 与国内大型银行相比也存在低估，未来三五年跑赢大行可能性更高。 核心城市优质小银行抗风险能力强于大型商业银行，在经济波动期间利 润增速稳定性更高，坏账率高点也低于大型商业银行。 经济复苏期银行股通常表现不错，但不同类型银行表现存在差异，长期 来看，优质城商行在绝大多数情况下能跑赢四大国有银行。 大保险公司倾向于投资大市值标的如农行等大型国有银行，而小保险公 司则选择与自身资金体量匹配的小市值标的，如优质城商行。 市场传言按揭贷款贴息政策表明政府认为银行息差已接近底线，对稳定 市场预期具有重要意义，但实际影响取决于政策力度。 公募基金明年将增加对银行股的配置，优先考虑优质城商行，其次是股 份制银行，再次才是大型国有银行，优质城商行更具投资价值。 Q&A 近期市场波动较大，银行股表现如何？ 最近几天市场波动明显，尤其是上周五市场出现明显回调。然而，银行股表现 ...

A股上市银行再现股东、高管增持潮！ 近日，包括成都银行、南京银行、常熟银行、沪农商行等上市银行纷纷发布公告称，获得重要股东或董 监高增持，部分增持动作仍在进行当中。这也是继10月以来，厦门银行、齐鲁银行、青岛银行等相继披 露类似公告后，近期又一批获增持的上市银行。 其中成都银行于11月21日晚间公告称，该行两大股东成都产业资本控股集团有限公司（下称"成都产业 资本集团"）、成都欣天颐投资有限责任公司（下称"成都欣天颐"），合计耗资约6.11亿元增持该行股 份近3424.7万股。 公告显示，2025年8月27日至11月21日期间，成都产业资本集团和成都欣天颐通过集中竞价的方式分别 累计增持成都银行股份1404.48万股和2020.22万股，分别累计增持金额约2.53亿元和约3.58亿元。 阶段性增持后，目前成都产业资本集团的持股比例约为6.06%，成都欣天颐持股比例约为4.27%。公告 称，本次增持计划尚未实施完毕，两家公司将按照增持计划以自有资金继续增持成都银行股份。按照今 年4月公告，上述两家增持主体拟增持金额合计不低于7亿元，合计不高于14亿元。 就在上述公告发布的同一天，另一家上市城商行——南京银行也披 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu Bank's major shareholders have significantly increased their holdings, reflecting a broader trend of shareholder and management buybacks across the banking sector amid market adjustments [2][6]. Group 1: Shareholder Activity - Chengdu Industrial Capital Holding Group and Chengdu Xintianyi Investment have collectively increased their shares by approximately 34.247 million, with a total investment of 611 million yuan [2][3]. - Chengdu Industrial Capital Group raised its stake from 5.73% to 6.0618%, acquiring about 14.04475 million shares for approximately 253 million yuan [3]. - Chengdu Xintianyi invested 358 million yuan to acquire around 20.2022 million shares, increasing its holding from 3.80% to 4.2737% [3]. Group 2: Broader Market Trends - The banking sector has seen a net increase in shareholder or executive buybacks amounting to approximately 9.03 billion yuan, the highest among 31 industries [5][7]. - Other banks, such as Nanjing Bank and Qingdao Bank, have also experienced significant shareholder buybacks, with Nanjing Bank's largest shareholder, BNP Paribas, increasing its stake to 18.06% [6][7]. - Local industrial capital is actively investing in banks, with Qingdao Guoxin Financial Holdings increasing its stake in Qingdao Bank by 9.57 billion yuan [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Chengdu Bank's initial buyback plan was adjusted to remove the price cap and extend the implementation period to April 2026, with a total investment target of 700 million to 1.4 billion yuan [4]. - Analysts suggest that the banking sector's valuation is currently low, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.73, indicating potential for future growth [7][8]. - The focus for 2026 investment strategies includes high dividend stocks, structural opportunities in city and rural commercial banks, and recovery in retail banking demand [8].

Core Viewpoint - A-share listed banks are experiencing a wave of share buybacks from shareholders and executives, indicating confidence in the long-term prospects of these banks amidst market volatility [1][3][5]. Group 1: Shareholder and Executive Buybacks - Recently, several listed banks, including Nanjing Bank and Chengdu Bank, announced significant share buybacks by major shareholders and executives, reflecting a trend that began in October with other banks like Xiamen Bank and Qilu Bank [3][4]. - Chengdu Bank reported that its two major shareholders invested approximately 611 million yuan to buy back nearly 34.247 million shares, with plans for further purchases totaling between 700 million and 1.4 billion yuan [3][4]. - Nanjing Bank's largest shareholder, BNP Paribas, increased its stake by approximately 12.8 million shares, raising its total holding from 17.02% to 18.06%, marking a new high for its ownership [4]. Group 2: Market Performance and Analyst Insights - The banking sector has shown resilience, with 17 bank stocks reporting positive returns over the past month, including China Bank with a 13.74% increase [9]. - Despite recent gains, the overall valuation of bank stocks remains low, with a median price-to-book ratio of about 0.6, indicating potential for further appreciation [9]. - Analysts from various institutions reaffirmed the investment opportunities in the banking sector, highlighting the appeal of high dividend yields and low valuations as key factors for future investments [10][11]. Group 3: Confidence in Long-term Value - The increase in share buybacks by executives and major shareholders is seen as a signal of confidence in the banks' long-term value and a strategy to stabilize market sentiment [7]. - The shift in buyback activity from low-price periods to times of rising stock prices suggests a proactive approach to managing market perceptions and valuations [7].

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant share purchases by shareholders and executives in several listed banks, particularly city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, indicate confidence in the long-term development prospects of these institutions [1] Group 1: Shareholder and Executive Actions - Nanjing Bank announced a substantial increase in shareholding by foreign major shareholders [1] - Chengdu Bank reported that two major shareholders jointly increased their holdings by approximately 34.247 million shares [1] - Executives from Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank and Changshu Bank also purchased shares using their own funds, demonstrating confidence in their banks' future [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Despite overall market volatility, the A-share banking sector has shown resilience, with China Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China A shares reaching new historical highs [1] - China Bank's share price has increased by 13.74% over the past month [1] - Analysts suggest that after sufficient adjustments in bank stocks since the fourth quarter, state-owned bank indices have led the way to new highs, reflecting ongoing accumulation by institutional investors [1] Group 3: Investment Support Factors - Continuous investment interest from insurance companies, asset management companies (AMCs), and industrial capital supports the banking sector [1] - Multiple positive factors are believed to underpin investment in the banking sector [1]