All right, welcome back to the exchange. Tesla CEO Elon Musk saying he's considering a partnership with Intel and previewing plans for a gigantic chip fab that gave Intel a boost after hours, but shares are pairing some of those gains amid tech selloff today. Dear Drabosa has more in today's tech check and just how much should we put into this report of Intel Tesla maybe dancing around each other.>> Maybe you got to be skeptical of the report or at least you know hold and see what happens. But what it says ...

Intel's Foundry Business & Market Opportunity - Intel's foundry business, relaunched nearly five years ago with hundreds of billions of dollars invested, faces pressure to secure actual customers [1] - Elon Musk's consideration of a partnership with Intel could signal progress for Intel's foundry gamble, especially amidst rising bubble fears and trade tensions [2] - Advanced chip manufacturing is crucial in the AI race, with current capacity concentrated in Taiwan and South Korea [2][3][10] - Bringing chip manufacturing back to the US is a matter of national leverage, reducing reliance on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), seen as vulnerable to China [3] Intel's Technological Advancement & Challenges - Intel's newest process, 14A, led by Lip Bhutan, aims to match or surpass TSMC at the leading edge [4] - Securing a deal with a major player to manufacture advanced nodes would position Intel among a select few fabs capable of producing at that level [4][5] - Advanced chip manufacturing is extremely difficult, requiring engineering, science, and artistry [6][7] - Intel faces the challenge of reliably delivering cost-efficient products that meet specifications [8] Potential Partnerships & Competitive Landscape - Intel approached Apple about a strategic investment, offering Apple a way to diversify its supply chain and manufacture on US soil, aligning with Washington's interests [5] - Apple previously moved away from Intel chips to manufacture its own, highlighting increased competition [9] - Successfully reaching the leading edge in chip manufacturing would be a significant achievement for Intel, especially given China's long-standing efforts in this area [9][10]

RT Amy (@_SFTahoe)TESLA: CHIP MANUFACTURER?“I dream about chips.” Elon MuskHow do we make enough chips? I have a lot of respect for the Tesla suppliers…. Even when extrapolate the the best case scenario of chips [from suppliers] it still is not enough…. I think we are going to have to build a gigantic chip fab.Elon Musk ...

Group 1 - The 2026 guidance from ASML indicates that while they do not expect a decline, they also do not foresee growth, which is a subtle shift from previous expectations [1][2] - ASML expects an increase in demand for their extreme ultraviolet lithography machines in 2026, which are their high-end products, signaling a positive outlook in that segment [2] - There is a significant concern regarding the demand in China, with ASML indicating that demand will decline significantly in 2026, marking a notable change in their guidance [3][4] Group 2 - For Q4, ASML has guided revenue expectations between 9.2 billion to 9.8 billion euros, slightly better than market expectations of 9.2 billion euros [5] - The focus for investors will be on the 2026 guidance and the situation in China, as there is a lack of visibility regarding how investments in chips and new data centers will impact ASML's business [6]

Industry Trend & Strategic Alliance - Intel and AMD are in early discussions for AMD to utilize Intel's foundry services, specifically their manufacturing factories [2] - This potential deal is viewed as a symbolic win for Intel, aiming to rebuild credibility in chip manufacturing [2] - Intel has been seeking endorsements and potential investments from companies like Nvidia, Apple, and TSMC [3] Technological Capabilities & Limitations - Intel's foundries currently cannot match TSMC's cutting-edge technology [3] - AMD would likely only shift less advanced production to Intel [3] - Some argue that this doesn't necessarily address Intel's underlying problem of advanced manufacturing capabilities not being up to par [5] Market Reaction & Investor Sentiment - Intel's stock experienced a pop of at least 6% due to the potential of AMD becoming a customer or investor [4] - The deal is less about immediate revenue and more about establishing Intel as a viable domestic alternative [5] Geopolitical Implications - US chip independence is a political priority [5]

Company Commitment - Intel reaffirms its commitment to its multibillion-dollar chip manufacturing plant project in Ohio [1] Project Status - The project is experiencing delays, prompting inquiry from US Senator Bernie Moreno [1]

Group 1: Trade Relations and Market Impact - A critical call is anticipated between President Trump and Chinese President Xi, focusing on the future of TikTok and tariffs [2][4] - Current tariffs are set at 30% on Chinese imports and 10% on US goods, with a potential return to triple-digit tariffs if no deal is reached by November [4] - China has not purchased any US soybeans at the start of the export season, indicating a strategic use of agriculture in trade negotiations [3] Group 2: Technology Sector Developments - Nvidia faced accusations of violating anti-monopoly laws in China, and Chinese tech firms have been advised not to purchase from Nvidia [3][7] - An antitrust probe against Google was dropped, highlighting a shift in focus towards Nvidia [8] - Intel's stock saw significant fluctuations, closing over 22% higher after Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in AI hardware production in the US [38] Group 3: Economic Insights and Predictions - The US needs to enhance its chip manufacturing capabilities to reduce dependency on foreign sources, as highlighted by Gary Con [13][15] - The ongoing economic situation is complicated by inflation and employment challenges, with the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut signaling a cautious approach [27][30] - The market is currently experiencing volatility, with investors reacting to trade negotiations and economic indicators [36][52]

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - 美联储主席承认面临稳定物价（2%的通胀目标）和充分就业的双重困境，通胀高于目标，就业市场疲软 [1] - 美联储降息 25 个基点，被视为风险管理措施，旨在刺激就业增长，但可能加剧通胀 [2][3] - 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）对未来利率走向存在分歧，部分委员预计年内不再降息，部分预计需要两次降息，年底利率预期约为 36% [4][5] - 就业市场在过去几个月明显疲软，核心通胀率仍接近 3%，高于美联储 2% 的目标 [7] - 经济存在衰退的可能性，可能由无法预见的“黑天鹅”事件引发 [9][10] Chip Manufacturing & AI - 美国必须成为芯片制造商，不能依赖其他国家，新冠疫情暴露了供应链的脆弱性 [14] - 美国政府鼓励国内芯片制造是件好事，芯片对于国家安全至关重要，例如导弹需要 300 多个芯片 [16][17] - 人工智能资本支出巨大，大量资金投入到数据中心建设中，预计未来 3-5 年内数据中心将陆续投入使用 [19] - 人工智能将走向企业级解决方案，各种人工智能程序将协同工作，需要更连贯的数据和数据库支持，这将引领量子革命，预计到本十年末，量子技术将成为重要组成部分 [20][21]

Government Investment & National Security - 美国政府收购英特尔 10% 的股份，旨在将芯片制造业转移回美国本土，解决国家安全问题 [1][13] - 芯片法案提供数十亿美元的贷款和 90 亿美元的赠款，以支持芯片制造回流 [1] - 此次股权收购是政府对芯片法案的调整，旨在从对芯片制造商的投资中获得回报，而非无偿赠款 [1][15] - 股权收购模式优于以往政府在经济困境时无偿提供资金的做法，允许美国纳税人分享企业增长的收益 [9] - 股权换取模式可以为公司提供正确的激励，避免公司不断寻求政府救助 [12][15] - 自由市场未能实现芯片制造回流的目标，因此需要政府干预 [13][16] Comparison with China's Approach - 中国政府通过平衡表支持关键产业公司，有时会要求获得“金股”以控制董事会 [4] - 中国利用其在稀土等行业的股权，通过价格操纵等手段扰乱市场，从而锁定资本市场，排挤竞争对手 [5][6] - 与中国不同，美国政府的股权投资不寻求控制权，保持透明度，并允许资本市场为这些企业融资 [9] Potential Concerns & Future Implications - 这种模式是否会成为常态，美国政府是否会开始通过股权换取贷款和赠款，引发争议 [2][3] - 股权换取模式需要考虑国家安全利益或类似情况，以及自由市场未能实现优先事项的情况 [16]

Business Strategy - Intel's future success may depend on focusing on chip manufacturing [1] - Intel's past success was based on doing everything [1]