Americans' assessment of the economy improved slightly in February, according to the University of Michigan's monthly survey, yet high prices continued to keep many on edge. ...

Core Insights - General Mills has reduced its full-year sales and earnings forecast due to a challenging consumer environment, expecting organic net sales to decline between 1.5% and 2% this year, compared to a previous forecast of up to 1% growth [1][1] - Adjusted earnings per share are anticipated to decrease by 16% to 20%, a revision from the earlier estimate of a 10% to 15% decline [1][1] Company Performance - Shares of General Mills fell by 8% in late trading following the announcement of the revised forecasts [1][1] - The decline in General Mills' stock reflects broader pressures in the packaged food sector, with competitors like Mondelez International, Kraft Heinz, and Campbell's also experiencing stock drops of 5% to over 7% [1][1] Consumer Trends - The company attributes the decline in sales to weak consumer sentiment, heightened uncertainty, and significant volatility affecting consumer purchasing patterns [1][1] - Low- and middle-income consumers are particularly impacted by inflation and reduced government benefits, leading them to seek discounted products rather than purchasing at full price [1][1] - A recent survey indicated a 20-point gap in consumer sentiment between those with stock holdings and those without, highlighting the financial strain on lower-income groups [1][1]

General Mills cuts annual sales and profit forecast | ReutersSkip to main content[Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionalsLearn more aboutRefinitiv]Packages of Cheerios, a brand owned by General Mills, are seen in a store in Manhattan, New York, U.S., November 12, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly [Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab]Feb 17 (Reuters) - General Mills [(GIS.N), opens new tab] on Tuesday cut its annual core net sales and profit forecasts, blaming weaker consumer sent ...

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY00) fell by -0.19% due to reduced liquidity demand from a rally in equity markets and negative carryover from weaker US labor market news, which increased the chance of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting to 19% from 8% [1] - The dollar reached a 4-year low when President Trump expressed comfort with its weakness, compounded by foreign investors withdrawing capital amid a growing budget deficit and political polarization [2] - The University of Michigan US Feb consumer sentiment index rose unexpectedly by +0.9 to a 6-month high of 57.3, while 1-year inflation expectations fell to a 13-month low of 3.5% [3] Group 2 - US Dec consumer credit increased by $24.045 billion, significantly surpassing expectations of $8.000 billion, marking the largest increase in a year [4] - Hawkish comments from Fed officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasizing the need for restrictive monetary policy to achieve a 2% inflation target, supported the dollar [5] - Swaps markets are pricing in a 19% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next policy meeting, with expectations of a -50 basis point cut by 2026 [6] Group 3 - The EUR/USD pair recovered from a 2-week low, finishing up by +0.37% after initial declines due to weaker German industrial production, but rebounded following better-than-expected German trade news [7]

Group 1 - The current price of gold is reported at $4,955 per ounce [1][2] - Consumer sentiment is measured at 57.3, indicating a specific level of consumer confidence [1][2]

Group 1 - PayPal has replaced its CEO, Alex Chriss, with former HP CEO Enrique Lores, effective March 1, due to a pace of change and execution not meeting expectations, resulting in a significant drop in shares [1] - The company anticipates a decline in earnings for 2026, following a slowdown in growth from its key branded checkout product, which experienced weaker performance in the fourth quarter [2] - PayPal's shares have fallen 19% to $42.55, marking a potential lowest close in nearly nine years, with the stock losing over half its value in the past year [2] Group 2 - Jamie Miller, the current CFO and COO, will serve as interim CEO during the transition and noted that the weaker performance in branded checkout was due to macroeconomic challenges and internal execution issues [3] - U.S. retail trends remain weak, particularly among lower- and middle-income consumers, which affects PayPal's customer base and exposes the company to shifts in consumer sentiment and discretionary spending [4] - The growth in payment volume for branded checkout slowed to 1% in the recent quarter, down from 6% the previous year, impacted by international headwinds and operational challenges [5][6]

Core Insights - Financial control in marriage is identified as a form of abuse, where one spouse manipulates money to exert control over the other, threatening the family's wellbeing [2][4] - Financial abuse is prevalent in 99% of domestic violence cases, indicating that it is a foundational element that prevents victims from leaving their abusers [4][6] - Economic barriers, such as high housing costs and lack of credit history, contribute to the difficulty victims face in escaping abusive situations [6] Financial Abuse Dynamics - A case study from The Dave Ramsey Show illustrates a woman whose husband intentionally reduced their family income and restricted her access to funds, demonstrating a clear pattern of financial control [3][4] - The husband’s actions included depleting savings and hiding accounts, which are tactics used by abusers to maintain control over their victims [3][4] - Financial anxiety among consumers, which fell to a sentiment score of 52.9, can give abusers more leverage to tighten their control over victims [6] Solutions and Recommendations - Immediate action steps for victims include obtaining a debit card tied to a joint account, depositing personal checks into separate accounts, and demanding financial transparency [9] - Establishing a financial safety net is crucial for victims, especially those with dependents, as it is a necessary step for survival rather than betrayal [9] - The infographic mentioned outlines the impacts of financial abuse and suggests pathways to solutions, emphasizing the importance of seeking professional help [8]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Economists are optimistic about the economy, with forecasts indicating a growth rate of 5.4% annualized in the fourth quarter, the fastest since the pandemic recession [2] - Consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest level since 2014, indicating a disconnect between economic growth and public perception [1][3] Group 2: Consumer Spending Dynamics - Consumer spending remains robust, driven primarily by high-income households, while lower- and middle-income households face financial struggles [4][5] - The disparity in wealth distribution has increased, with top earners accounting for a larger share of wealth and spending compared to previous decades [4] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Perception - Inflation has significantly eroded the purchasing power of lower-income households, contributing to negative consumer sentiment despite positive GDP indicators [5][6] - The disconnect between economic data and consumer sentiment is attributed to rising costs of living and negative media coverage of economic news [7] Group 4: K-Shaped Economic Recovery - The economy is described as "K-shaped," where wealthier households benefit from stock market gains while average households experience financial deterioration [8]

Group 1: Energy Sector - WTI crude oil prices increased by more than +2% to a 1-week high, positively impacting energy producers due to President Trump's renewed military threats against Iran [1] - The rise in crude prices was also influenced by reports of the US threatening to limit dollar supply for Iraqi oil sales, pressuring Iraq's politicians to form a government excluding Iran-backed groups [1] Group 2: Precious Metals and Mining Stocks - Gold, silver, and platinum prices reached new record highs, driven by a weaker dollar and geopolitical risks, leading to a boost in mining stocks [2] - Barrick Mining closed up more than +3%, while Newmont Mining and Freeport-McMoRan both closed up more than +2% [16] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for January was revised upward by +2.4 to a 5-month high of 56.4, exceeding expectations [3][4] - The S&P manufacturing PMI for January rose by +0.1 to 51.9, slightly below expectations [3] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The broader market saw recovery after early losses, supported by the performance of the Magnificent Seven technology stocks, with Microsoft and Amazon closing up more than +3% and +2% respectively [5][15] - The S&P 500 Index closed up +0.03%, while the Dow Jones closed down -0.58% and the Nasdaq 100 closed up +0.34% [6] Group 5: Earnings Reports and Forecasts - Q4 earnings season began positively, with 81% of the 40 S&P 500 companies that reported beating expectations, and S&P earnings growth projected to increase by +8.4% in Q4 [8] - Capital One Financial Corp reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.86, below the consensus of $4.15, leading to a decline of more than -7% in its stock [22]

Energy Sector - WTI crude oil prices increased by more than +2% to reach a 1-week high, positively impacting energy producers as President Trump threatened military action against Iran for its crackdown on protests [1] - Energy producers such as Halliburton, Devon Energy, and Occidental Petroleum saw their stock prices rise by more than +2% [16] Precious Metals - Gold, silver, and platinum prices reached new record highs, driven by a weaker dollar and geopolitical risks, which increased demand for these metals as a store of value [2] - Mining stocks, including Barrick Mining and Newmont Mining, experienced gains of more than +2% and +1% respectively due to the rise in precious metal prices [17] Consumer Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for January was revised upward by +2.4 to a 5-month high of 56.4, exceeding expectations [3] - The S&P manufacturing PMI for January rose by +0.1 to 51.9, slightly below expectations of 52.0 [3] Stock Market Performance - The broader market recovered from early losses, supported by the performance of the Magnificent Seven technology stocks, with Microsoft up more than +3% and other major tech companies also showing gains [5][15] - The S&P 500 Index increased by +0.25%, while the Dow Jones Industrials Index decreased by -0.38% [6] Earnings Reports - The Q4 earnings season has begun positively, with 81% of the 40 S&P 500 companies that reported beating expectations, and S&P earnings growth projected to rise by +8.4% in Q4 [8] - Booz Allen Hamilton reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.77, significantly above the consensus of $1.27, and raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast [18]