After several wild weeks of movement in diesel prices, at times rising far faster than any movement in crude prices would justify, the benchmark price used for most fuel surcharges fell after four weeks of increases. The Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration average weekly retail diesel price declined 3.7 cents/gallon to $3.831/g. The one-week decline comes after a four-week stretch in which the price rose 24.8 cts/g to $3.868/g. The DOE/EIA price was effective Monday and posted Tuesday. ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the third quarter of 2025, the company reported a profit of $40.3 million, or $0.18 per share, with an adjusted profit of $42.5 million, or $0.19 per share. This adjusted profit decreased by $37.8 million compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to a decline in time charter earnings from $283 million to $248 million [4][5] - Ship operating expenses increased by $3.1 million from the previous quarter, attributed to a decrease in supply rate and costs related to a change in ship management for seven LR2 tankers [5] - The company has strong liquidity with $819 million in cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025, and no meaningful debt maturities until 2030 [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved $83,300 per day on VLCC fleet, $60,600 per day on Suezmax fleet, and $42,200 per day on LR2/Aframax fleet for the third quarter of 2025, showing significant increases compared to the previous year [3] - The average cash-based breakeven rates for the next 12 months are estimated at approximately $26,000 per day for VLCCs, $23,300 for Suezmax tankers, and $23,600 for LR2 tankers [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil in transit has reached record highs, with year-on-year increases in export volumes, particularly from the Americas and the Atlantic Basin [10] - The company noted logistical challenges around the trade of sanctioned export oil, which has been amplified by sanctions on companies like Lukoil and Rosneft [11] - The demand for compliant crudes, especially in the Middle East, has increased, leading to higher crude price levels [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet while generating cash flow, with a strategy that emphasizes efficient fleet management and capitalizing on market opportunities [6][20] - The management highlighted a shift back to a VLCC-centric trade pattern, driven by positive export numbers from Brazil, Guyana, and Canada [12][20] - The company is cautious about expanding its fleet due to the current market dynamics and is considering focusing on VLCCs for future growth [55] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the tanker market, citing high utilization rates, strong oil exports, and limited growth in the compliant tanker fleet [20] - The company anticipates a prolonged period of tight physical shipping markets, with key fundamentals supporting continued demand [66] - Management acknowledged the volatility of the market but indicated that current conditions suggest a strong outlook for Q1 2026 [66] Other Important Information - The company has converted existing credit facilities into revolving reducing credit facilities, allowing for greater financial flexibility [7] - The average age of the fleet is seven years, consisting entirely of ECO vessels, with 56% fitted with scrubbers [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will the company focus on deleveraging the balance sheet while maintaining dividends? - Management indicated that they are different from peers and prefer not to operate with low loan-to-value ratios, focusing instead on generating cash quickly without aggressive debt reduction [24][25] Question: How do older ships become less efficient without being scrapped? - Management explained that older ships face high insurance costs and limited trading options, making them less efficient in the compliant oil market, which could lead to a wall of scrapping in the future [26][30] Question: What is the outlook for the dark fleet and its impact on the market? - Management noted an increase in vessels sitting idle and discussed potential solutions for recycling sanctioned vessels, indicating that the dark fleet's dynamics are complex and evolving [34][36] Question: How does the current market environment affect vessel demand? - Management highlighted that the current contango in oil pricing could extend trade lanes, positively impacting vessel demand, although they noted that floating storage is not currently a commercial strategy [41][62] Question: What is the outlook for Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025? - Management expressed confidence that Q1 2026 could sustain strong rates due to favorable market conditions and key drivers that were not present in Q4 of the previous year [66]

Global crude oil markets are oversupplied, and it’s most obvious in the Americas, especially the US. The futures curve for US benchmark West Texas Intermediate is in a contango structure — in which later-dated contracts trade at a premium to nearer ones — for most of 2026, suggesting weaker demand for prompt barrels. Further signs of healthy supply in the US can be seen in high export volumes. Crude exports for October came in at the highest since July 2024, according to government data. Most Read from B ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Since September, global crude oil shipments have increased significantly, leading to a substantial rise in global in - transit crude oil inventory at sea. If a large amount of compliant oil in floating storage cannot be digested, the near - term forward curve of crude oil needs to weaken and turn into a contango structure [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 49 cents to $60.56 per barrel, a decline of 0.8%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell 45 cents to $64.44 per barrel, a decline of 0.69%. The main contract of SC crude oil closed down 0.19% at 464 yuan per barrel [1] - Saudi Aramco's quarterly profit exceeded analysts' expectations. Its Q3 net profit adjusted for one - off items rose 0.8% year - on - year to 104.9 billion riyals (about $28 billion). The company increased production according to OPEC+ policy, stabilizing performance in a low - oil - price environment [1] - BP CEO said that oil demand remains strong, with aviation and petrochemical products driving a 1% increase in oil demand [1] - The US Deputy Energy Secretary said that energy demand is rising rapidly, and the US strategic petroleum reserve is depleted, so the current priority is to replenish the reserve as soon as possible [1] Investment Logic - Since September, global crude oil shipments have increased significantly. Recent Saudi crude oil shipments are close to 7 million barrels per day, Latin American shipments exceed 6 million barrels per day, Russian shipments are close to 4 million barrels per day, and US shipments exceed 4 million barrels per day. In addition, the export of northern Iraqi crude oil through Ceyhan has recovered, and Kuwait's crude oil exports have also increased significantly due to a refinery device failure [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle - East conflicts [3]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered has shifted from a bullish to a bearish outlook on oil prices, cutting its 2026 and 2027 price forecasts by $15 per barrel due to significant changes in the forward curve [2] Group 1: Oil Price Outlook - The average price of Brent crude for 2025 has been raised to $68.50 per barrel from $61 per barrel, while the 2026 target has been reduced to $63.50 per barrel from $78 per barrel, and the 2027 price has been cut to $67 per barrel from $83 per barrel [2] - The futures curve is now in contango from early 2026 onwards, indicating expectations of rising prices or high storage costs [2] - Near-term weakness is anticipated due to negative sentiment driven by trade war uncertainties and oversupply fears, but a gradual increase in prices is expected in the long term [2] Group 2: U.S. Oil Production Dynamics - U.S. oil output has reached an all-time high of 13.58 million barrels per day in June, with production increasing by 133,000 barrels per day [1] - Analysts predict that U.S. shale output growth will be depressed by low prices, and if OPEC+ maintains its production levels, this could highlight tightness in the market [2] - Rising production costs in the U.S. shale sector are driven by resource depletion and the need to drill in more complex areas, with marginal costs expected to rise from approximately $70 per barrel to $95 per barrel by the mid-2030s [3] Group 3: Economic Influences - The weakening global economic outlook is likely to lead to economic stimulus measures, including potential rate cuts in the U.S. and a response package from China [1] - Many U.S. oil producers require prices above $65 per barrel to profit from new drilling, a threshold that is increasing due to inflation [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1] - The article warns that the information may not be accurate or provided in real-time, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages users to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1] - The article mentions that FX Empire does not endorse any third-party services and is not liable for any losses incurred from using the information provided [1]

Group 1: Oil Market Outlook - The entire 2026 WTI futures curve is trading below $60 per barrel, which is below breakeven levels for most new shale wells, raising concerns about a potential contango situation [1][5] - TotalEnergies CEO and Vitol's CEO warn that such low prices could lead to a reduction in U.S. shale output by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day next year, tightening supply as demand stabilizes [1] - Backwardation, previously a feature of the market, is now only extending until February 2026, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5] Group 2: Market Movements - US LNG developer Venture Global reached an arbitration settlement with China's Unipec, avoiding litigation over cargo delivery failures [3] - Strathcona Resources has abandoned its hostile takeover bid for MEG Energy, potentially facilitating a merger between MEG and Cenovus [3] - Chevron is nearing an exploration deal with the Greek government for deepwater blocks south of Crete, with surveying set to begin in 2026 [4] Group 3: Price Trends and Sentiment - The current market sentiment is negative, with hedge fund net length in WTI futures and options at 29,410 contracts, which is 15% of the level at the beginning of the year [5] - Resurgent US-China trade tensions and the reimposition of tariffs are negatively impacting oil sentiment, with ICE Brent prices at $62 per barrel seen as temporary before a potential decline [6]

Core Insights - Silver's futures curve has entered deep backwardation, with the front-month contract trading $2.88 higher than later contracts, marking the steepest inversion since 1980 [1][15][24] - This backwardation signals significant changes in the market, indicating potential supply stress, surging demand for physical metal, or a breakdown in the usual price discovery process [2][19][20] Market Dynamics - The current backwardation is driven by strong industrial demand for silver in sectors like solar panels and electric vehicles, coupled with increased investment demand, leading to a double-sided squeeze on supply [9][10][11] - Lease rates for borrowing physical silver have surged dramatically, indicating growing stress in the market, with one-month lease rates spiking to 39% from below 1% earlier in the year [13][14] Implications of Backwardation - Persistent backwardation suggests that the physical market is now leading price discovery, shifting power away from paper markets dominated by speculative trading [26][27] - The current market conditions could lead to a significant revaluation of silver, with potential price targets between $100 and $400 per ounce based on historical patterns and technical analysis [40][42][47] Historical Context - Historical instances of silver entering backwardation have often preceded major price rallies, as seen in January 1980 and early 2011, where physical scarcity led to rapid price increases [32][35][39] - The current situation mirrors past events but is driven by more sustainable factors, including steady industrial demand and tightening mine supply [38][40] Future Outlook - If the backwardation persists, it could lead to a self-reinforcing cycle where rising spot prices and high lease rates force short sellers to cover their positions, further driving prices up [28][29] - The market is likely to seek a new equilibrium that reflects silver's true monetary value, potentially leading to a significant upward price adjustment [47][49]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market experienced a mixed performance on August 26, with palm oil futures declining over 1% while peanut futures saw a slight increase of 0.31% [1] Price Movements - As of August 26, the main futures prices are as follows: - Palm oil down 1.14% at 9504.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal down 0.64% at 3090.00 CNY/ton - Rapeseed meal down 0.39% at 2549.00 CNY/ton - Peanut up 0.31% at 7802.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of August 25, warehouse receipt data indicates: - Soybean oil futures unchanged at 15760 contracts - Palm oil futures unchanged at 0 contracts - Rapeseed oil futures unchanged at 3987 contracts - Soybean meal futures unchanged at 10925 contracts - Rapeseed meal futures decreased by 187 contracts to 8101 contracts - Soybean futures decreased by 115 contracts to 12082 contracts [3] Basis and Basis Rate - The basis and basis rates for various commodities are as follows: - Rapeseed oil: Basis 116, Basis Rate 1.16% - Rapeseed meal: Basis 61, Basis Rate 2.33% - Palm oil: Basis 24, Basis Rate 0.25% - Soybean: Basis 302, Basis Rate 7.02% - Soybean meal: Basis 10, Basis Rate 0.32% - Soybean oil: Basis 96, Basis Rate 1.12% [4]

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for crude oil saw a significant increase, with the main crude oil futures rising nearly 9% [1] - The main crude oil futures closed at 535.20 yuan per barrel, while fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil also experienced substantial gains [1] Price Movements - As of June 13, the main crude oil futures opened at 492.90 yuan, with a previous close of 495.70 yuan and a last settlement price of 491.10 yuan [2] - Fuel oil opened at 2979.00 yuan, with a previous close of 2997.00 yuan and a last settlement price of 2982.00 yuan [2] - Liquid petroleum gas opened at 4137.00 yuan, with a previous close of 4141.00 yuan and a last settlement price of 4148.00 yuan [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil opened at 3629.00 yuan, with a previous close of 3645.00 yuan and a last settlement price of 3640.00 yuan [2] Inventory Data - As of June 12, the inventory data showed that the medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse held 4,029,000 barrels, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - Fuel oil futures warehouse held 24,750 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - Liquid petroleum gas futures warehouse saw a decrease of 125 contracts, totaling 9,010 contracts [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures held 0 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Basis Data - The basis data indicated that fuel oil, asphalt, liquid petroleum gas, and low-sulfur fuel oil contracts experienced a 'backwardation' phenomenon, where spot prices exceeded futures prices [3] - For fuel oil, the spot price was 5,287.5 yuan, while the contract price was 2,509 yuan, resulting in a basis of 2,305 yuan and a basis rate of 43.59% [3] - The basis for liquid petroleum gas was 764 yuan, with a basis rate of 15.92% [3]