Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is leaning towards further interest rate cuts, with Governor Christopher Waller advocating for cautious quarter-percentage-point reductions amid a weak job market [2][8] - A report from Moody's Analytics highlights that 22 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are experiencing economic downturns, with 13 states "treading water," indicating a potential broader recession [3][8] Commodity Markets - Rare earth stocks surged following President Trump's warning about China's new export controls on rare earth elements, effective October 9, 2025, which require export licenses for products with trace amounts of these minerals [4][8] - The geopolitical tensions have intensified trade relations, with Trump threatening a "massive increase" in tariffs on Chinese imports [4][8] Automotive Sector - Volkswagen Group reported a 1% increase in global vehicle deliveries to 2.2 million in Q3, despite declines in China (down 7.2%) and North America (down 9.8%) [5][8] - Growth in Western Europe (up 8%) and South America (up nearly 10%) helped offset losses in key markets [5][8] Academic and Corporate Developments - MIT rejected a federal funding proposal from the Trump Administration, citing concerns over academic freedom and the merit-based allocation of scientific funding [6][8] - Verizon experienced widespread network disruptions in Greater Los Angeles due to vandalism-related fiber cuts [6][8]

Key Points Novartis and Gilead Sciences have businesses that can perform well during downturns. Novartis has an extensive portfolio of medicines across many therapeutic areas. Gilead Sciences leads the HIV market and is expanding its oncology lineup. 10 stocks we like better than Novartis › Equity markets experienced significant volatility this year. Many investors feared that President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies would plunge the economy into a recession and lead to a full-blown sto ...

Some experts worry that factors such as tariff policies could fuel an economic recession, potentially dampening homebuyer demand and pushing home values downward. Some markets — particularly major job hubs — may be more insulated from these effects. However, all homeowners should be prepared.While U.S. home prices are unlikely to plummet, inventory is gradually normalizing.But if recession fears continue to mount, owners who need to immediately sell could face declining home prices. While this could provide ...

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S., Sept. 17, 2025.But the narrative now is shifting towards the ever-popular wealth effect coming from Wall Street and a succession of new highs in major stock indexes despite lofty valuations.Previously, such trends had been powered by trillions in stimulus from both congressional spending and low interest rates and liquidity injections from the Federal Reserve.Consumer spending in August was stronger than expected and so was inc ...

The U.S. economy faces an “uncomfortably high” 48% probability of slipping into a recession within the next 12 months, according to Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics.Moody’s Predicts 48% Chance Of RecessionZandi shared this concerning forecast on X, citing Moody’s newly unveiled leading economic indicator, which is derived from a machine learning algorithm. While historically such high probabilities haven’t always led to a recession, the current figure represents an unprecedented level of ris ...

Key Points Economic uncertainty and steep valuations present key risks for stocks. However, analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › Could the stock market be on shakier ground than Wall Street seems to think? I believe that many analysts (although not all of them) are painting a picture that's much rosier for stocks than actually exists. I'm not trying to spread doom and gloom. However, pretending that a situation is better than it really is doesn't he ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the current sentiment and positioning of funds in the U.S. precious metals futures market, highlighting a shift towards net long positions in gold and silver while palladium remains in a prolonged net short position [1][2][8]. Group 1: Fund Positioning in Precious Metals - As of last Tuesday, net long positions in U.S. precious metals futures have increased due to a reduction in short positions, with gold reaching a net long of 531 tons, the highest in 16 weeks, and silver at 7,039 tons, the highest in three weeks [2][7]. - The gold fund's long positions increased by 15% week-on-week, while short positions decreased by 3%, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [7]. - The palladium fund remains in a net short position of 8 tons, marking the highest level of net short positions in 38 weeks, and has been in a net short position for 134 consecutive weeks [8]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Recent improvements in U.S. economic indicators, such as employment data and consumer confidence, have led to a rise in risk appetite among investors, favoring investments in silver, platinum, and digital currencies [2][27]. - The market currently estimates a 34.5% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting on September 17, with expectations of potential rate cuts later in the year [24][27]. - The article notes that inflation data is beginning to rise, which could complicate the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [27][30]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The gold price has accumulated a 30.7% increase year-to-date, while silver prices have risen by 36.0% during the same period [7][11]. - The article highlights a significant divergence in performance between gold and silver, with the gold-to-silver ratio indicating market sentiment, currently at 87.465, reflecting a high level of risk aversion [22][23]. - The article suggests that if gold prices continue to rise while mining stocks decline, it may signal caution for investors [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market, particularly focusing on gold, silver, and platinum, while also highlighting the impact of geopolitical risks and U.S. economic data on commodity prices [2][28]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market Sentiment - The sentiment towards precious metals is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical risks and U.S. economic indicators, which have led to fluctuations in prices [2][28]. - As of July 15, 2023, the net long positions in COMEX gold increased by 6.5% to 447 tons, marking the highest level since September 2019 [3][7]. - The net long positions in COMEX silver rose by 1.0% to 6,831 tons, continuing a streak of 73 weeks in net long positions [3][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Their Impact - Recent positive U.S. economic data, including consumer confidence and employment figures, have contributed to a 1.54% rebound in the U.S. dollar index over the past two weeks, indirectly limiting gold price increases [2][28]. - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which has been a significant factor in the recent bullish sentiment in the stock market [28]. Group 3: Commodity Price Predictions - The article suggests that international prices for commodities like rare earth materials could rise, especially following the U.S. government's investment in MP Materials and a long-term supply contract at a price significantly above Chinese rates [2][19]. - Predictions for copper prices have been adjusted due to changing market conditions, including potential tariffs and economic recession concerns [18][28]. Group 4: Market Trends and Ratios - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has shown a recovery, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [20][22]. - The gold-silver ratio, a measure of market sentiment, has increased to 87.746, reflecting heightened risk awareness among investors [24]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The article outlines three potential scenarios for the future direction of gold prices, including economic recovery leading to a peak in gold prices, continued stagflation, or uncontrolled inflation leading to asset bubbles [28][30][32]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic policies are expected to create volatility in the market, particularly concerning the relationship between the Federal Reserve and political influences [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 75.1% chance of the US Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in September, which may be a key reason for the recent bullish trend in global stock markets [2][24]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The World Bank has revised its global economic growth forecast for this year down to 2.3%, from an earlier prediction of 2.8%, indicating that the period from 2020 to 2027 may see the lowest economic growth since 1960 [2][25]. - The average price of commodities is expected to decline by 10% year-on-year this year and by another 6% next year due to low economic growth and trade policies [2][25]. Group 2: Precious Metals Market - Recent CFTC data shows a decrease in net long positions for gold and silver, while platinum and palladium have seen increases in long positions [3][7]. - Gold prices have accumulated a 27.2% increase year-to-date, while silver prices have risen by 24.3% [7][11]. - The gold/silver ratio has shown a downward trend, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [21]. Group 3: Fund Positioning - Managed positions in gold futures have decreased by 4.5%, while silver futures have seen an 8.7% drop in long positions [3][7]. - The net long position in palladium has increased, but it remains in a historically high net short position [8][11]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The relationship between economic indicators and commodity prices suggests that if the US enters a recession, it may lead to a decline in commodity prices, including gold [25][26]. - The current geopolitical climate and trade tensions are influencing market dynamics, with potential implications for commodity prices [29][30]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The company suggests that in the current market environment, strategies such as shorting base metals, holding cash, and maintaining positions in gold and silver may be prudent [28][30]. - The focus on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors is impacting investment decisions in the mining sector, leading to a lag in mining stocks compared to commodity prices [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the precarious state of the U.S. economy, highlighting the impact of fluctuating trade policies and the potential risks that could lead to a recession, despite recent employment growth and stable unemployment rates [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining stable between 4% and 4.2% over the past year [1]. - Consumer debt delinquency rates have been rising for a year, raising concerns about the financial health of low-income borrowers and potential impacts on consumer spending [5]. Group 2: Major Risks - The article identifies three significant risks that could lead to severe consequences for the economy: 1. The fragile balance in the labor market, where companies are hesitant to lay off employees but are also not hiring, which could lead to a sudden spike in unemployment if demand weakens [4][5]. 2. A potential decline in consumer spending due to rising costs, with predictions of a 1% drop in housing prices this year as sellers outnumber buyers by nearly 500,000 [5]. 3. Financial market shocks or sudden shifts in sentiment, with rising long-term borrowing costs potentially affecting stock market performance and corporate profitability [6][7]. Group 3: Corporate Strategies - Companies are adopting various strategies to navigate the uncertain environment, with some choosing to wait and others adjusting supply chains. For instance, some firms are delaying price increases until trade policies stabilize [8]. - The overall sentiment among economists is that the likelihood of a recession has increased compared to earlier in the year, but remains lower than in April and early May [9].