15 December 2025 | 1:14PM HKT Economics Research China: November activity data broadly missed market expectations November activity data broadly missed market expectations, especially for retail sales. Industrial production (IP) growth edged down in year-on-year terms despite the notable improvement in export growth, with slower output growth in automobile and utilities industries more than offsetting faster output growth in the special equipment and pharmaceuticals industries. Fixed asset investment (FAI) ...

#数据 今年1至11月，中国各地区投资同比增速均转负。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):统计局： 1—11月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）444035亿元，同比下降2.6%。 其中，采矿业投资增长4.0%，制造业投资增长1.9%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业投资增长10.7%。 https://t.co/8YlW1lvPJF ...

11 December 2025 | 4:17AM HKT Economics Research China: November activity data preview: Weaker retail sales, still-depressed investment, and slightly better industrial production Bottom line: November activity data are scheduled for release next Monday (15 December). We expect industrial production (IP) growth to edge up to 5.1% yoy in November from 4.9% yoy in October, as the notable improvement in export growth may more than offset slowing auto output growth and slightly widening year-on-year contraction ...

Summary of China Data Insights on Fixed Asset Investment Industry Overview - The report focuses on China's fixed asset investment (FAI) and its recent decline, which has drawn significant market attention. [4][7][8] Key Findings 1. **Decline in FAI Growth**: - FAI growth fell from +2.8% in the first half of the year to -6.3% in Q3, and further to -11.4% in October, marking the steepest decline since the initial Covid lockdown in early 2020. [7][8] - Infrastructure investment contributed nearly 50% to the decline, while manufacturing and property investments each accounted for about 20%. [7] 2. **Reasons for Decline**: - The decline is attributed to "anti-involution" policies, reduced infrastructure-related fiscal spending, and the ongoing property downturn, which together explain approximately 40% of the decline. [4][24] - The remaining 60% is attributed to statistical corrections of previously over-reported data rather than a genuine economic slowdown, supported by commodity demand indicators. [4][24] 3. **Revamped Investment Tracker**: - The investment tracker has been revamped to better align with national accounts methodology, using principal component analysis on seven indicators, including commodity demand and construction output. [4][8][34] - The tracker indicates approximately 3% year-over-year real investment growth in Q3, contrasting sharply with the declines in official FAI data. [4][44] 4. **Impact on GDP Forecast**: - Despite the FAI slump, it is believed that this will not significantly impact the official Q4 GDP print, maintaining a full-year 2025 growth forecast of 5.0%. [4][44] Additional Insights 1. **Statistical Reliability Issues**: - Historical issues with FAI data reliability have been noted, including double-counting and misreporting, which have led to inflated growth figures in the past. [32][34] - The report emphasizes that FAI data measures total nominal spending rather than the incremental value added to capital stock, making them incompatible with GDP metrics. [33] 2. **Sector-Specific Analysis**: - The decline in manufacturing FAI is broader than just sectors affected by "anti-involution" policies, with a significant drop in sectors not directly targeted by these policies. [9][12] - The property sector's weakness is highlighted, with a reported 23% year-over-year decline in property FAI, suggesting that much of the reported decline cannot be fully explained by fundamental market activities. [19][24] 3. **Commodity Demand Indicators**: - A divergence between actual commodity demand and FAI-implied commodity demand suggests that reported FAI figures may have been overestimated between 2022 and 2024. [27][30] Conclusion - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the recent decline in China's fixed asset investment, attributing much of it to statistical corrections rather than a genuine economic slowdown. The revamped investment tracker offers a more reliable measure of investment momentum, indicating that the overall economic outlook remains stable despite the recent FAI figures. [4][8][44]

#数据 1-10月内资企业、港澳台企业、外商企业固定资产投资同比全线转为下降。https://t.co/myC54FGXv0外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):统计局： 1—10月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）408914亿元，同比下降1.7%（2020年以来最大降幅）。 其中，采矿业投资增长3.8%，制造业投资增长2.7%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业投资增长12.5%。 https://t.co/mlXwvVk96W ...

#数据 1-10月城镇固定资产投资同比降幅为2020年6月以来最大。 https://t.co/Kd7iBPGYK6外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#数据 中国10月规模以上工业增加值同比增4.9%，预期5.5%；10月社会消费品零售总额同比增2.9%，预期2.7%；10月城镇调查失业率5.1%，预期5.2%；1-10月城镇固定资产投资同比-1.7%，预期-0.8%。 https://t.co/GWEjKDuZ6E ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, particularly the industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales sectors, as well as GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: China's Q3 GDP growth moderated to 4.8% year-on-year (yoy) from 5.2% in Q2, slightly above market consensus of 4.7% but in line with forecasts. Sequentially, GDP growth showed a slight acceleration to 1.1% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) non-annualized in Q3 from 1.0% in Q2 [1][10][20]. 2. **Industrial Production**: Industrial production (IP) growth rose significantly to 6.5% yoy in September, exceeding expectations, driven by stronger exports and increased auto output. Sequentially, IP gained 1.4% month-over-month (mom) non-annualized in September [3][13][20]. 3. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: FAI growth remained depressed at -0.5% year-to-date (ytd) yoy in September, with a notable single-month decline of -6.7% yoy. This was attributed to ongoing "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged downturn in the property sector [8][14][20]. 4. **Retail Sales**: Retail sales growth slowed to 3.0% yoy in September from 3.4% in August, impacted by weaker offline sales and the fading effectiveness of the consumer goods trade-in program. Online sales showed slight improvement [9][15][20]. 5. **Services Sector**: The Services Industry Output Index remained stable at 5.6% yoy in September, indicating resilience in the services sector despite challenges in retail sales [16][20]. 6. **Property Market**: The property market continued to show weakness, with significant year-on-year declines in new home starts (-14.4%) and property sales (-10.5% in volume) [11][18][20]. 7. **Unemployment Rates**: The nationwide unemployment rate decreased slightly to 5.2% in September from 5.3% in August, although youth unemployment remains a concern at 18.9% for the 16-24 age group [19][20]. Adjustments to Economic Forecasts - Full-year real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 4.9% and 4.3%, respectively, reflecting adjustments based on Q3 GDP outcomes and historical data revisions. The growth target of "around 5%" for the year remains on track despite US-China tensions [1][20][37]. Additional Important Insights - The effectiveness of existing easing measures is diminishing, necessitating targeted easing to ensure stable growth and employment in the coming quarters [20]. - The majority of recent easing measures' growth impulses are expected to materialize in late 2025 or early 2026 [20]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy and its outlook.

#数据 中国第三季度GDP同比增速为四个季度以来最低，社会消费品零售销售同比增幅为去年11月以来最低。1-9月固定资产投资累计同比增速为超过5年来首次转负。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#数据 中国第三季度GDP年率4.8%，前值5.2%。9月规模以上工业增加值同比增6.5%，预期5.0%；9月社会消费品零售总额同比增3.0%，预期3.0%；9月城镇调查失业率5.2%，预期5.3%；1-9月城镇固定资产投资同比增-0.5%，预期0.1%。 https://t.co/RdrokL5NmU ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation of Huizhou is stable, with a focus on high-quality development and effective implementation of macro policies [2] Industrial Production - From January to August, the industrial added value of above-scale industries increased by 8.8% year-on-year, with mining decreasing by 9.8%, manufacturing growing by 9.1%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply increasing by 5.4% [2] - The electronics industry grew by 12.6%, the petrochemical energy and new materials industry increased by 5.2%, and the life and health manufacturing industry rose by 9.0% [2] - Advanced manufacturing added value grew by 9.0%, accounting for 61.6% of the total industrial added value, while high-tech manufacturing added value increased by 12.3%, making up 42.7% of the total [2] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment decreased by 22.9% year-on-year, with significant growth in cultural, sports, and entertainment investment at 79.4%, and scientific research and technical services investment at 45.0% [2] - Investment in water conservancy, environment, and public facilities management fell by 22.7%, while manufacturing investment decreased by 12.3% [2] - New commercial housing sales area declined by 35.1% [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 138.064 billion yuan, growing by 4.2% [3] - Urban retail sales increased by 4.5%, while rural retail sales grew by 2.9% [3] - Online retail sales surged by 36.9%, indicating a strong trend in e-commerce [3] Foreign Trade - The total foreign trade import and export volume reached 276.599 billion yuan, growing by 6.7%, with exports at 159.945 billion yuan (up 9.3%) and imports at 116.654 billion yuan (up 3.2%) [3] Fiscal and Financial Stability - General public budget revenue was 30.299 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [4] - The balance of financial institution deposits reached 965.799 billion yuan, growing by 1.1%, while loans increased by 3.5% to 1,129.521 billion yuan [4] Consumer Price Index - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the price index for consumer goods down by 0.6% [4][5] - Prices for food, tobacco, and alcohol fell by 0.3%, while clothing prices rose by 6.7% [5]

Economic Indicators - China's fixed asset investment reading for July was the weakest since at least the late 1990s, excluding the Covid period [1]