Market Overview - The three major indices are on a four-session winning streak, with expectations for a potential Santa Claus rally starting in the last five trading days of the year [1][2] - There is a historical concern as the last two years did not see a Santa Claus rally, and this year could break that trend [2] Trading Conditions - The S&P 500 is expected to have a trading range of about 30 to 35 points, with current volatility at approximately 13.7% [3] - A more defensive rotation is observed in the market, with interest rate-sensitive stocks, consumer staples, real estate, and financials leading the way [5] Economic Data - Mortgage applications have decreased by 5% week-over-week, with the 30-year mortgage rate hovering around 6.3% [7][12] - Jobless claims came in at 214,000, better than the expected 224,000, indicating a mixed picture in the jobs market with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [8][10] - The four-week moving average for initial claims is around 216,000 jobs, reflecting some normalization after previous outlier reports [11] Inflation and GDP - Recent economic data has exceeded expectations, contributing to equity gains, with GDP numbers coming in 1% above forecasts [13] - CPI inflation is reported at 2.7% on the headline and 2.6% on core, suggesting that inflation may not be a significant concern for the Fed [21] Commodity Market - Gold and silver have reached all-time highs, indicating a shift towards commodity trading amid geopolitical risks and central bank policies [22][23] - The gold-silver ratio suggests that gold is currently outperforming silver, which may indicate positive market sentiment and economic growth [24][25] Future Outlook - There are expectations for potential fiscal policies around housing in 2026, especially in an election year, which could influence market dynamics [17] - The market is currently pricing in two Fed rate cuts, with the first not expected until June, but there is uncertainty about how the market will react if these cuts are backed out [20]

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is unchanged, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.09%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.06%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.02%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -0.02%. Stock indexes are little changed ahead of today’s early close at 1pm Eastern time and Thursday’s Christmas holiday.  Stocks have continued support from confidence about the US economic outlook after Tuesday’s news that US Q3 real GDP rose by +4 ...

The roaring 20s are alive and well. That according to our next guest, Ed Yard Denny. He's the president of Yard Denny Research.He joins us now. It's good to see you. So, we were just a little delayed on the roaring 20s, maybe thanks to co and here we are about to regroup.>> Well, I think we've been doing pretty well since uh since the beginning of the of the decade. I mean, think of all the uh shocks that the economy has been hit by the pandemic, the lockdowns for two months. Uh then the social distancing, ...

These days, everyone's on pins and needles when it comes to the economy, the labor market, the state of inflation, the next Fed chair. Where we go in 2026. Uh, I want to bring in now someone who's very central to all of that.The Fed Reserve Board Governor Steven Myron. And Stephen, we got to start with this CPI number yesterday. Uh, you people went nuts.They lost their minds. Of course, I've been questioning this government data for about four or five years, and everyone said, "Don't worry, it's the gold st ...

And now let's unwrap what to watch in the next two weeks into January. And avocado and garlic are terms you need to remember. Joining us now, Adam Chrisouli, Vital Knowledge founder and president.Adam, we're not making guacamole here. It's AI. >> Yes.Uh AI, you know, is still the most important theme trend in this market. And so, um, Garlic and Avocado are the two frontier LLM models that are due out, uh, around Q1. Um, for open AI, it's garlic and meta's Avocado.Um, and this is really going to be probably ...

Upbeat comments today from New York Fed President John Williams were supportive for stocks but negative for bonds, as he said some of the data we're seeing is "pretty encouraging" and he sees no sign of a sharp deterioration in the jobs data. He added that he sees US GDP growth of 1.5% to 1.75% this year, with growth picking up next year, and that there's "no urgency to need to act further on monetary policy right now, because I think the cuts we've made have positioned us really well."The University of Mic ...

The three candidates interviewed by President Donald Trump so far to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell next May share a desire to cut interest rates, but diverge on other aspects of monetary policy and come from different backgrounds. ...

With the skepticism surrounding the inflation data, what should you do with your money. Do you go all in on stocks. Do you proceed with some more caution.Let's ask Rebecca Patterson, independent director at Vanguard and the former chief investment strategist at Bridgewwater. Great to see you first of all. >> Good to see you.>> Do do you I hate to put it quite this way. Do you care about the the vagaries of whether this report is reliable or not. Can you can you wait it out.Do you look to the market reaction ...

Bitcoin (BTC) held steady near $88,000 on Thursday after a volatile session that saw prices briefly surge toward $90,000, fueled by optimism that U.S. President Donald Trump’s incoming Federal Reserve Chair will push for steep rate cuts. Trump said he plans to appoint a new Fed Chair who believes in lowering interest rates “by a lot.” “I’ll soon announce our next chairman of the Federal Reserve, someone who believes in lower interest rates by a lot,” Trump said in a speech Wednesday. “Early in the new yea ...

“[Tuesday’s] data paints a picture of an economy catching its breath,” said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. “Job growth is holding on, but cracks are forming. Consumers are still standing, but not sprinting.”The U.S. Labor Department’s report on Tuesday showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by +64K in November after declining by -105K in October. At the same time, the U.S. unemployment rate rose to a 4-year high of 4.6% in November, weaker than expectations of 4.5%. Also, U.S. November ...