Heidi Overton, Novo Nordisk CEO Maziar Mike Doustdar, Eli Lilly CEO David A. Ricks, and U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick listen while U.S. President Donald Trump announces a deal with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk on to reduce the prices of GLP-1 weight‑loss drugs during an event in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. Nov. 6, 2025.A version of this article first appeared in CNBC's Healthy Returns newsletter, which brings the latest health-care news straight to your inbox. Subs ...

This big pharma stock still faces significant challenges in the new year.A rising tide doesn't lift all boats. For example, a boat with gaping holes in its hull will sink regardless of how high the tide rises. Pfizer (PFE 0.59%) seemed to be the investing equivalent of such a boat in 2025.Shares of the pharmaceutical giant declined 6% last year, experiencing several significant fluctuations along the way. Can Pfizer's stock bounce back in 2026? NYSE : PFEPfizerToday's Change( -0.59 %) $ -0.15Current Price$ ...

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer's dividend is considered relatively safe as 2026 begins, despite concerns regarding its high payout ratios and upcoming patent expirations [1][12][14] Financial Performance - Pfizer reported earnings of over $9.4 billion in the first nine months of 2025, with a market capitalization exceeding $140 billion [1] - The company has a forward dividend yield of 6.9% and a high dividend payout ratio of 99.4%, indicating it is barely covering its dividend with earnings [3][1] Cash Flow Analysis - Pfizer generated free cash flow of $10.4 billion in the 12 months ending September 30, 2025, while paying out $9.7 billion in dividends, resulting in a free cash flow payout ratio of 93.3% [6][12] - The free cash flow payout ratio is viewed as less concerning compared to the earnings-based payout ratio [12] Dividend History - Pfizer has increased its dividend for 16 consecutive years and has declared dividends for 349 consecutive quarters since 1937, showcasing a strong track record [7][10] Management Commitment - Pfizer's management, including CEO Albert Bourla and CFO David Denton, has reaffirmed a strong commitment to maintaining and growing the dividend over time [10][9] Patent Expiration Concerns - The company faces a significant patent cliff with key drugs like Eliquis and Xeljanz losing U.S. patent exclusivity, which could impact earnings and cash flow [10][11] - Management believes that investments in newly acquired and launched products will help offset the losses from patent expirations [11]

Key Points Bristol Myers Squibb's financial results haven't been great in recent years. The giant drugmaker has been facing challenges, including several patent cliffs. New launches, pipeline progress, and a dividend program still make it attractive. 10 stocks we like better than Bristol Myers Squibb › The past five years have been challenging for Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY). The company lost patent exclusivity for some key products, including one that was once its best-selling medicine, can ...

As the looming patent cliff approaches, some major blockbuster drugs are set to lose their exclusivity, with pharma companies making moves to try and reduce the impact. Patent expiry is a phenomenon that haunts every pharmaceutical company, with the loss of market exclusivity often causing a dramatic dip in a company’s profits. This can be particularly challenging for companies whose drug is one of their best-sellers – having the potential to wipe billions from revenue figures. With a particularly large ...

Group 1 - Capital is increasingly directed towards high-growth AI companies, leading to a neglect of other investment opportunities due to the prevailing AI trend in the markets [1] - There is a concern regarding a potential patent cliff, which refers to the loss of revenue from drugs that are going off-patent, impacting pharmaceutical companies [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up stock selection to identify mispriced opportunities in the market [1] - It highlights the focus on earnings, technological disruption, policy shifts, and capital flows as key factors in investment decision-making [1]

The dynamics are well understood in an industry where a handful of blockbusters can underwrite years of costly research and where patents may run 20 years on paper, but far less in practice once years of development are taken into account.Pfizer is not alone. Biopharma multinational Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) chief executive Chris Boerner also warned of a "stacking effect" as multiple drugs lose protection in quick succession."There is clearly a loss of exclusivity wave coming," Bourla said. "This will cost ...

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer's financial outlook for 2026 has disappointed investors, leading to a more than 3% drop in shares, primarily due to declining demand for COVID-19 products and increasing loss of exclusivity across its portfolio [2][10]. Financial Outlook - Pfizer expects total revenues for 2026 to be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, including $5 billion from COVID-19 product sales, which indicates modest growth compared to the revised 2025 revenue expectation of around $62 billion [3]. - The adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 is set at $2.80-$3.00, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.08 per share [4]. - Adjusted R&D expenses are projected to be between $10.5 billion and $11.5 billion, while adjusted selling, informational, and administrative (SI&A) spending is targeted between $12.5 billion and $13.5 billion [4]. Cost Management - Pfizer has exceeded its cost-saving targets for 2025 and aims for cumulative cost reductions of $7.2 billion by 2027, with most savings expected in 2026 [5]. Growth Projections - Beyond 2026, Pfizer does not anticipate a return to robust growth until late in the decade, with COVID-19 product sales expected to decline by approximately $1.5 billion in 2026 [7]. - The company faces a significant patent cliff, with projected revenue losses exceeding $3 billion in 2027 and more than $6 billion in 2028 due to loss of exclusivity [8]. Strategic Focus - Pfizer is concentrating on two key growth areas: obesity and oncology, with the recent acquisition of Metsera aimed at building an early-stage obesity pipeline [11]. - In oncology, Pfizer is prioritizing the development of a PD-1×VEGF bispecific antibody, although competition in this area is intensifying [13]. Valuation and Market Performance - Pfizer's shares have underperformed the industry year to date, trading at a price/earnings ratio of 8.19 times forward earnings, which is lower than the industry average of 17.18 and its own 5-year mean of 10.41 [16]. - EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have declined over the past 30 days, indicating a downward trend in market expectations [18].

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer has lowered its FY2026 profit forecast due to declining Covid vaccine sales and impending patent expirations on key products, projecting profits between $2.80 and $3 per share, below analyst expectations of $3.05 per share [1] Financial Projections - The company anticipates FY2026 revenue to be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, compared to analyst estimates of $61.59 billion [2] - Pfizer's FY2025 profit forecast has also been reduced to $62 billion, which is at the lower end of its previous guidance of $61 billion to $64 billion [6] Research and Development - R&D expenses are expected to range from $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion as Pfizer focuses on advancing its newly licensed PD-1xVEGF oncology asset and various clinical programs from the Metsera acquisition [3] Impact of Covid Vaccine Sales - Projected profits from Covid vaccine sales are expected to decline by $1.5 billion in 2026 compared to 2025 forecasts, reflecting a broader trend affecting other pharmaceutical companies [4] Patent Expirations - Pfizer estimates a loss of $1.5 billion in profit due to the expiration of market exclusivity for certain products, including the JAK inhibitor Xeljanz, blood thinner Eliquis, and cancer drug Ibrance [5] Cost-Cutting Measures - The company has initiated a cost-cutting strategy aimed at reducing spending by $7.7 billion by 2027, which includes cutting 230 jobs in Switzerland as part of a broader operational downsizing [7] Strategic Focus - Pfizer is targeting the weight loss market while implementing stringent cost-cutting measures and pursuing pipeline-enhancing deals [8]

Core Insights - The global interest in China's biopharma sector is driven by the lower costs of early clinical programs compared to the US and Europe, with expectations for increased dealmaking between China and the West as 2026 approaches [1][2] Group 1: Deal Trends and Values - There has been a significant rise in high-value deals between the West and China, with 20 transactions exceeding $500 million in 2023 alone [2] - Major deals in 2025 include Novartis's $5.36 billion agreement with Argo Biopharmaceutical, AstraZeneca's $5.3 billion deal with CSPC Pharmaceutical, and Zenas Biopharma's $2 billion agreement with InnoCare Pharma [2] - Chinese innovator drug licensing deals accounted for 28% of the innovator deals signed by large pharma in 2024, totaling $41.5 billion in value [3] Group 2: R&D and Therapeutic Focus - Western companies are increasingly seeking partnerships with Chinese biotech firms to enhance their pipelines with cost-effective therapies, particularly in oncology, immunology, and cardiometabolic health [4] - The rapid growth of China's clinical trial ecosystem has positioned the country as a leader in global study initiations in 2024 [5] - China is shifting from a reputation for generic drug manufacturing to developing innovative therapies, capturing global pharmaceutical attention [6] Group 3: Oncology and Innovative Therapies - Oncology remains a focal point for licensing agreements, with significant deals from companies like AbbVie, Pfizer, and GSK [9] - Antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) developed in China are particularly appealing to Western dealmakers due to their innovative potential [10] - Next-generation biologics, including ADCs, bispecifics, and cell and gene therapies, are driving interest from investors and large pharmaceutical companies [11] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Shifts - Immunology is expected to remain a key area of focus in 2026, alongside a rise in cardiometabolic deals targeting the obesity market [13] - The BIOSECURE Act could impact interactions between Western and Chinese companies, but industry leaders express confidence in the resilience of innovation-driven strategies [14][16] - Some Chinese companies are exploring self-commercialization strategies, although most will likely continue to rely on licensing deals in the near term due to a lack of global market experience [18][19]