Genmab (NasdaqGS:GMAB) 2025 Conference November 19, 2025 07:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsJan van de Winkel - CEOAnthony Pagano - CFOConference Call ParticipantsBen Jackson - AnalystBen JacksonWelcome to day three of the Jefferies London Healthcare conference. My name is Ben Jackson. I'm one of the analysts here on the European Biopharma team. It's a pleasure today to be joined by the team from Genmab. We've got both CEO Jan van de Winkel and also Anthony Pagano, who is CFO. Look, we're going to jump straigh ...

The third-quarter results of the broader Medical sector, which includes major large-cap pharmaceutical companies, have been quite impressive this year, with more than 82% of sector participants having reported so far. These stocks posted a solid year-over-year earnings growth scorecard of 4.3% on 10.7% revenue growth (as per our Earnings Trends report). The earnings beat ratio of 91.8% and the revenue beat ratio of 83.7% are also assuring. After factoring in actual results and projections for the companies ...

Core Viewpoint - Johnson & Johnson's recent earnings report shows strong performance with earnings and sales exceeding estimates, but the company faces challenges from product exclusivity losses and competition in certain segments [2][3][22]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 earnings were $2.80 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.77, and reflecting a 15.7% increase year-over-year [2]. - Reported earnings, including special items, were $2.12 per share, up 91% year-over-year [2]. - Sales reached $24.0 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $23.74 billion, with a 6.8% increase from the previous year [2][3]. Sales Breakdown - Domestic sales rose 6.2% to $13.7 billion, while international sales increased 7.6% to $10.3 billion [4]. - The Innovative Medicines segment saw sales rise 6.8% to $15.56 billion, driven by key products like Darzalex and Tremfya [5][6]. - The loss of exclusivity for Stelara negatively impacted revenue growth by 640 basis points [3]. Segment Performance - Oncology sales, particularly for Darzalex, grew 21.7% to $3.67 billion, while Imbruvica sales declined 7.8% to $695 million due to competitive pressures [8][9]. - Immunology segment sales were affected by Stelara's decline of 41.3% to $1.57 billion, attributed to biosimilar competition [13]. - The MedTech segment reported sales of $8.43 billion, up 6.8%, with strong performance in cardiovascular and surgical products [18][19]. Guidance and Outlook - The company raised its 2025 sales guidance to $93.5 billion-$93.9 billion, indicating growth of 5.4%-5.9% [22]. - Adjusted earnings per share guidance remains at $10.80-$10.90, with operational growth expected to increase by 8.2%-9.2% [24]. - For 2026, J&J anticipates top-line growth exceeding 5%, driven by key products and new launches in both Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments [26][27][28]. Market Position - Johnson & Johnson holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of an in-line return from the stock in the coming months [31].

Core Insights - The healthcare sector offers diverse investment opportunities for new investors, including pharmaceutical, biotech, and medical device companies [1][2] Company Analysis: Intuitive Surgical - Intuitive Surgical's flagship product, the da Vinci surgical system, facilitates complex, minimally invasive surgeries, driving profitability [3] - The company generates significant recurring revenue from instruments and accessories, which delivered over $1.5 billion in Q3 2025 due to rising procedure volumes [4] - Service contracts for the installed base of systems contributed approximately $396 million in revenue in Q3, while system sales accounted for $590 million, leading to total revenue of $2.5 billion, a 23% increase year-over-year [5] - The installed base of da Vinci systems grew to 10,763, a 13% increase year-over-year, with worldwide procedures increasing by about 20% [7] - Intuitive Surgical maintains a competitive advantage through high switching costs, extensive surgeon training, and a strong patent portfolio [8] - There is significant potential for growth in robotic surgery adoption as many eligible procedures still use traditional methods [9] Company Analysis: Johnson & Johnson - Johnson & Johnson is recognized as a Dividend King, having increased its dividend for 63 consecutive years, with a recent quarterly dividend of $1.30 per share, reflecting a 4.8% increase [11][12] - The "innovative medicine" segment generated $15.56 billion in net sales in Q3, a 6.8% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for oncology and immunology drugs [13] - Notable drug sales included Darzalex, which rose over 20%, and Tremfya, which jumped over 40% [14] - The medtech segment also performed well, with $8.43 billion in sales in Q3, a 6.8% increase year-over-year, primarily due to electrophysiology cardiovascular products [16] - Overall Q3 sales reached $24 billion, a 6.8% increase year-over-year, with net earnings of $5.2 billion, representing a 91% increase from the previous year [16] - Johnson & Johnson holds a AAA credit rating from S&P Global, indicating high creditworthiness and low risk of default [17]

Core Insights - The healthcare sector is considered recession-resistant due to the inelastic demand for medical services, making it a stable investment during economic fluctuations [1] - Established healthcare companies, particularly in pharmaceuticals and medical devices, have strong profits and cash flows that support consistent dividend payments and growth [2] Company Analysis: AbbVie - AbbVie has a 53-year history of increasing dividends, recently announcing a 5.5% increase, with a current yield of approximately 3.3% [3] - The company is experiencing significant growth from its immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which saw sales growth of 47% and 35% respectively in Q3 2025, contributing to projected combined sales exceeding $25 billion for the year [4] - AbbVie's neuroscience portfolio is also growing, with over 20% sales growth driven by drugs like Ubrelvy and Vraylar, leading to total net revenue of nearly $15.8 billion in Q3, a 9% year-over-year increase [5] - Despite a 38% year-over-year decline in diluted earnings due to increased R&D charges, AbbVie's adjusted EPS of $1.86 surpassed Wall Street expectations [6][8] - The company has been actively acquiring firms to diversify its portfolio, including a recent $2.1 billion acquisition of Capstan Therapeutics, enhancing its immunology pipeline [7] Company Analysis: Johnson & Johnson - Johnson & Johnson has increased its dividend for 63 consecutive years, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [10] - The company generated approximately $20 billion in free cash flow in 2024, with a manageable dividend payout ratio of around 50%, allowing for future increases [11] - Johnson & Johnson holds a rare AAA credit rating, indicating exceptional financial strength [12] - The company is focusing on six priority growth areas: oncology, immunology, neuroscience, cardiovascular, surgery, and vision products, with Q3 2025 sales reaching about $24 billion, a 6.8% increase year-over-year [14] - Key growth products include Darzalex, Tremfya, and Carvykti, with the oncology segment showing nearly 20% operational sales growth [15][16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue grew by 21% year-over-year, driven by increased recurring revenue, with recurring revenue up 26% [5][22][24] - Operating profit increased by 52%, reflecting strong financial performance despite strategic investments [5][25] - The company ended the first half of 2025 with approximately $3.4 billion in cash, providing flexibility for growth and expansion [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales from Epkinly and TIVDAK increased by 54% year-over-year, contributing 25% to total revenue growth [15][22] - Epkinly sales reached $333 million through Q3, representing a 64% year-over-year increase, establishing it as a leader in the third-line setting for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and follicular lymphoma [17][19] - TIVDAK sales totaled $120 million year-to-date, with strong performance in both new and established markets [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Epkinly has received regulatory approvals in over 65 countries, with more than 50 countries now having dual indications [19] - The company is preparing for the launch of Epkinly in earlier lines of therapy, particularly in second-line follicular lymphoma, with an estimated 9,000 patients in this segment [42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The proposed acquisition of Merus is seen as a transformative opportunity, advancing the company's evolution into a global biotech leader and expanding its revenue base [6][30] - The company aims to maximize the potential of its commercialized medicines while accelerating the development of its late-stage pipeline [5][6] - The focus remains on high-impact programs, with ongoing phase 3 trials for rinatabart sesutecan and Petosemtamab expected to drive future growth [7][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the potential of rinatabart sesutecan and Petosemtamab as key growth drivers, with expectations for significant market opportunities [7][36] - The company anticipates continued strong performance and is on track to achieve double-digit revenue and profit growth for 2025 [26][28] Other Important Information - The company has initiated additional phase 3 clinical trials for rinatabart sesutecan, reinforcing its commitment to advancing its innovative pipeline [11][29] - The annual R&D updates and data review will be held virtually on December 11, 2025 [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Competitive landscape of Petosemtamab and Rinatabart sesutecan - Management remains confident in the positioning of both drugs as best-in-class assets, with ongoing phase 3 trials supporting their development [34][36] Question: Commercial dynamics of Epkinly - The dual indication of Epkinly is beneficial for operationalization, and the company expects significant growth opportunities in earlier lines of therapy [40][41] Question: Termination of clinical development for 1042 - The decision was based on data not meeting internal development standards, leading to a halt in the program [51][52] Question: Confidence in Epkinly's upcoming PDUFA - Management expressed high confidence in the approval process, with no indications suggesting otherwise [55][57] Question: OpEx and profitability outlook for 2026 - The company maintains a disciplined investment approach, with expectations for significant profitability and operational efficiency [62][66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record royalty revenue of $236 million, a 52% increase year over year, contributing to total revenue of $354 million, which reflects a 22% growth year over year [4][27] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 35% to $248 million, outpacing top-line growth, showcasing the strength of the royalty-based business model [4][30] - The company raised its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting total revenue of $1.3 billion to $1.375 billion, representing 28% to 35% growth over 2024 [7][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Darzalex Subcutaneous sales increased by 20% to $3.7 billion, with a significant market share gain of approximately 5.7 percentage points across all therapy lines [10][11] - Fesgo generated revenue of approximately $2.3 billion, reflecting a 54% year-over-year increase, with conversion from intravenous therapies reaching 51% [13] - Vyvgart Hytrulo saw total sales increase by 96% year-over-year to $1.13 billion, driven by the subcutaneous formulation enabling self-injection [14][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved 13 out of 15 growth catalysts year to date, including new product approvals and expanded indications [5] - The approval of Darzalex Subcutaneous for smoldering multiple myeloma in Europe is expected to expand its market reach significantly [6] - The subcutaneous formulation of Ocrevus is projected to represent an incremental $2 billion opportunity, with analysts estimating total brand sales to reach $10 billion by 2028 [18][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The acquisition of Electrovive aims to enhance at-home administration of biologic therapies, expanding the portfolio of drug delivery technologies [8] - The company is focused on patient-centric drug delivery solutions, leveraging its ENHANZE technology alongside new innovations like HyperCon [9] - The strategic goal is to maintain strong momentum in transforming the subcutaneous delivery landscape, with a robust pipeline of future royalty streams [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the continued strength of the core ENHANZE business and the accelerating momentum across the partner portfolio [34] - The company anticipates sustained royalty contributions from all products through at least 2030, ensuring a robust revenue stream [24] - Management highlighted the importance of ongoing discussions for new ENHANZE agreements, indicating strong interest from potential partners [48] Other Important Information - The company reported a strong balance sheet with cash and marketable securities of $702 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $596.1 million at the end of 2024 [28] - The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 0.9 times at the end of the third quarter, indicating a solid financial position [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on capital allocation and debt management - Management indicated a balanced approach to capital allocation, with plans to pay down debt while considering share repurchases and new acquisition opportunities [35][36] Question: Awareness of Electrovive technology among partners - Management noted that there is good awareness of the HyperCon technology among current partners, with strong support for potential collaboration [39] Question: Market growth sources for products - Management highlighted that market growth is coming from both share gains from other therapies and earlier use in treatment [40] Question: Future M&A opportunities - Management stated that while they are actively looking for new opportunities, it is unlikely there will be another acquisition this year following the Electrovive deal [42][43] Question: Updates on pipeline products - Management confirmed that there have not been any public updates from ViiV or Acumen recently, but they are awaiting further information [57]

Core Insights - Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on November 3, with sales and earnings estimates at $336.9 million and $1.62 per share respectively [1][7] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have risen from $6.01 to $6.18 per share over the past 60 days [1] Earnings Performance - Halozyme has a strong history of earnings surprises, having exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 19.74% [2][3] - The most recent quarter saw an earnings surprise of 25.20% [2] Earnings Prediction Model - The company's earnings prediction model indicates a likely earnings beat, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +2.53% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4][5] Revenue Drivers - The anticipated revenue for Q3 2025 is expected to be bolstered by royalty gains from partnerships with Roche, J&J, and argenx [7][9] - Halozyme's collaboration agreements with large pharmaceutical companies utilizing its ENHANZE technology are key revenue contributors, generating royalties, milestone payments, and annual license fees [8] Recent Developments - Halozyme has entered into an agreement to acquire Elektrofi for $750 million, which is expected to enhance its drug delivery technology and support long-term revenue growth [11][12] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 revenue guidance, expecting total revenues between $1.28 billion and $1.36 billion, with royalty revenues projected at $825-$860 million [13] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Halozyme's shares have increased by 38.4%, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [14] - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 6.97, which is above the industry average of 2.26 but below its five-year mean of 8.41 [16] Financial Position - Halozyme maintains a strong financial position with $548 million in cash and no near-term debt, providing sufficient liquidity for operations [17] Growth Potential - The company is expected to benefit from higher royalties and incremental contributions from proprietary products, alongside the diversification from the Elektrofi acquisition [18] - Analysts have a positive outlook on the stock, reflected in rising earnings estimates [20]

Core Insights - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Merck (MRK) are prominent U.S. healthcare companies, making them suitable for comparison in terms of investment potential [1][2] - JNJ has a diversified business model, including pharmaceuticals and medical devices, while MRK has a strong focus on vaccines and virology [3][4][11] J&J Overview - JNJ's Innovative Medicine unit reported a 3.4% sales increase in the first nine months of 2025, driven by key drugs like Darzalex and new products [4][9] - The MedTech segment has shown improvement due to acquisitions and plans to separate its Orthopaedics franchise into a standalone company [5][6] - JNJ's pipeline includes 10 products with potential peak sales of $5 billion, indicating strong growth prospects [8][9] - The company expects accelerated growth in both Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments by 2026 [6][31] - JNJ's stock has risen 31.7% year-to-date, outperforming the industry [23] Merck Overview - MRK's portfolio includes over six blockbuster drugs, with Keytruda being a significant revenue driver [11][29] - The FDA approved a new subcutaneous formulation of Keytruda, which extends its patent protection beyond 2028 [12] - MRK's pipeline has expanded significantly, with plans to launch around 20 new vaccines and drugs in the coming years [13] - The company faces challenges, including declining sales of Gardasil and reliance on Keytruda, which may impact future growth [15][16][30] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JNJ's 2025 sales and EPS indicates increases of 5.4% and 8.8%, respectively [18] - MRK's 2025 sales and EPS estimates suggest modest growth of 0.9% and 16.6%, but recent estimates have declined [20][21] Valuation and Dividend - JNJ's shares trade at a forward P/E ratio of 16.78, while MRK's shares are at 9.36, indicating a more attractive valuation for MRK [25] - JNJ has a dividend yield of 2.73%, compared to MRK's 3.7%, reflecting different approaches to shareholder returns [26] Investment Outlook - JNJ is viewed as a stronger investment option due to its diversified portfolio, consistent revenue growth, and strong cash flows despite facing some headwinds [33] - MRK's heavy reliance on Keytruda raises concerns about its ability to sustain growth post-2028, making it a riskier investment [16][30]

Core Insights - Johnson & Johnson (J&J) anticipates that consensus estimates for its 2026 financial performance are too conservative, projecting higher growth rates for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) than currently expected [1][9]. Revenue and EPS Projections - J&J expects revenue growth of over 5% in 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of approximately 4.6% [2][9]. - The company forecasts adjusted EPS to be around 5 cents higher than the consensus of $11.39 per share, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 EPS at $11.46 [2][12]. Segment Performance Expectations - The Innovative Medicine segment is projected to experience accelerated growth in 2026, despite the loss of exclusivity for the drug Stelara, which negatively impacted growth by 1070 basis points in Q2 2025 [3][4]. - Sales in the Innovative Medicine Unit rose 4.5% operationally to $44.64 billion in the first nine months of 2025, driven by key products like Darzalex, Tremfya, and new oncology drugs [4][5]. - The MedTech segment is expected to outperform 2025 levels, supported by the adoption of new products and a focus on high-growth markets, with sales rising 5.3% operationally to $25.0 billion in the first nine months of 2025 [6][7]. Product Launches and Innovations - J&J plans to launch several new products in 2026, including the Shockwave C2 Aero catheter and Tecnis intraocular lens, which are anticipated to contribute to growth [6][9]. - The company is also preparing for regulatory submissions for the OTTAVA robotic surgical system, indicating a strategic pivot towards innovation-led growth [7]. Stock Performance and Valuation - J&J's stock has outperformed the industry, rising 34.0% year-to-date compared to a 5.1% increase in the industry [8]. - The company's shares are currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 17.08, higher than the industry average of 15.52 and above its five-year mean of 15.64, suggesting a slightly expensive valuation [11].