Economics Research 9 January 2026 | 11:30AM HKT China FX/Rates Monitor: Stronger CNY, Steeper Curve Our monitor tracks the latest developments and identifies key indicators for China FX and rates, including valuations/policy stance, technicals, flows, and fundamentals. Below we summarize our key takeaways on the China FX and rates markets. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Danny Suwanapruti +65-6889-1987 | danny.suwanapruti@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Inv ...

Asian stocks extended a global record run on Tuesday as investors overlooked geopolitical tensions and looked ahead to the release of key U.S. economic data for direction. A report showed U.S. manufacturing activity shrank in December by the most since 2024, boosting bets for more policy easing by the Federal Reserve.The dollar index retreated on improved risk sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump affirmed in an interview with NBC News that his country is not at war with Venezuela.Gold added to stron ...

Core Insights - The Meridian Hedged Equity Fund reported a return of 1.67% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500 Index which returned 8.13% and the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index which returned 3.53% [1] Company Overview - Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is a major player in the healthcare sector, focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $495.785 billion, with its stock closing at $205.78 per share on December 23, 2025 [2] Performance Metrics - Johnson & Johnson's stock experienced a one-month return of -0.43% but gained 41.09% over the last 52 weeks [2] Strategic Developments - Johnson & Johnson is facing a critical transition as sales from its blockbuster drug Stelara decline due to patent expiration, but it is countering this with a strong pipeline of new drugs, particularly in oncology and immunology [3] - The company secured FDA approval for Inlexzo, a new bladder cancer treatment, and its lung cancer drug Rybrevant is moving closer to broader adoption following positive trial data [3] - Strong sales momentum from other key drugs has compensated for the decline in Stelara, and favorable legal developments have eased concerns regarding ongoing talc litigation [3] Investment Sentiment - Johnson & Johnson was held by 103 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, an increase from 95 in the previous quarter [4] - Despite its potential, some analysts believe that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and less downside risk compared to Johnson & Johnson [4]

Meridian Funds, managed by ArrowMark Partners, released its “Meridian Hedged Equity Fund” third-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. In the quarter, the market is more focused on the tailwind of policy easing than the headwind of weakening fundamentals, resulting in substantial gains despite stagflation emerging as a key concern. In this environment, the fund returned 1.67% (net) during the quarter, compared to 8.13% returns of the S&P 500 Index and 3.53% returns of th ...

Today’s Federal Reserve meeting will set the stage for Bitcoin to rally into the new year, according to analysts. Their bullishness hinges on the expectation that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a 0.25% interest rate cut and provide crypto traders with a much needed breather. The CME FedWatch tool shows an 88% probability of a quarter-point cut today, with Polymarket bettors even more confident at 96%. “I expect the digital asset space to react positively,” Andrew Forson, president of crypto firm D ...

CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Nov. 6, 2025: Dow Falls After New Labor Market Data The data fuelled doubts about another interest-rate cut in December in the wake of last week's Federal Reserve meeting when Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded cautious about further policy easing. Topics Memberships Subscribe to Barron's Last Updated: 14 hours ago Dollar Eases After Reaching 5-Month High on Upbeat Data By Renae Dyer, Dow Jones Newswires The dollar was easing after reaching a five-month high against a basket of ...

Economic Growth - The Chinese economy grew at 4.8% in the July-September quarter, marking the slowest annual pace in a year and aligning with analyst expectations, attributed to trade tensions with the U.S. and weak domestic demand [1][7] - This growth rate is a decline from 5.2% in the previous quarter, representing the weakest quarterly growth since Q3 2024 [1] Trade Tensions & Export Data - Despite U.S. tariffs, China's overall exports remained resilient, with global exports increasing by 8.3% in September, the fastest growth in six months, while exports to the U.S. fell by 27% year on year [2] Property Sector & Consumer Weakness - The ongoing property market crisis in China has negatively impacted consumption and domestic demand, with residential property sales dropping by 7.6% in value during the first nine months of the year compared to 2024 [3] Future Projections - S&P projects new home sales to decline by another 8% year over year in 2025 and by 6-7% in 2026, indicating continued weakness in the property sector [4] - The World Bank predicts China's economy will expand by 4.8% in 2025, while S&P Global economists forecast GDP growth to slip to 4% year on year in the second half of 2025 [7] Monetary Policy Outlook - To address the slowing economy, China may implement policy easing, with Goldman Sachs suggesting a 10-basis-point cut in the key rate and a 50-basis-point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio [5][6] - The central bank's easing stance is seen as a response to deflationary pressures and the need to stimulate growth [6] Investment Opportunities - If rate cuts occur, high-growth tech stocks and ETFs such as KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) and Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ) may benefit, along with iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) and iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) [8] - Despite subdued retail sales momentum, FXI and MCHI have advanced approximately 23% and 28% over the past six months, indicating potential for further growth with any policy stimulus [9]

Group 1 - The dollar fell to an 11-day low against a basket of currencies due to signals of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed support for continued policy easing, aligning with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's earlier comments [2] - The next Federal Reserve policy decision is scheduled for October 29, which could impact market expectations [2] Group 2 - The October Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey showed a sharper decline than anticipated, indicating potential economic weakness [2] - A significant drop in oil prices is contributing to the dollar's decline, as the U.S. is a major energy producer [2]

The Federal Reserve’s September 16–17, 2025 FOMC minutes indicated that real GDP growth slowed and the labor market softened in H1, while core PCE inflation remained elevated. Most participants considered modest policy easing appropriate and expected further rate cuts this year. Many noted persistent upside inflation risks alongside growing downside risks to employment. https://t.co/Ga8FsHGeWD ...

Employment Data Overview - Australian employment unexpectedly fell by 5,400 in August, contrasting with a revised increase of 26,500 in July, and significantly below market expectations of a 21,500 gain [2][3] - Full-time positions dropped by 40,900, indicating a slowdown in employment growth [2][3] Labor Market Indicators - Annual jobs growth has decreased to 1.5% from 3.5% in January, while hours worked dipped by 0.4% [3] - The jobless rate remained steady at 4.2%, which is low by historical standards, and the participation rate slightly decreased to 66.8% [3] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain interest rates this month, with a 75% probability of a cut in November [2][4] - The RBA has adopted a cautious approach to policy easing, having previously cut rates in February, May, and August [4] Economic Context - Leading indicators of labor demand remain solid, with job advertisements stabilizing above pre-pandemic levels [5] - Business surveys are generally positive, and consumer spending has increased recently due to lower borrowing costs and tax cuts [5] Job Cuts in Major Banks - ANZ plans to cut nearly 3,500 jobs over the next year as part of a restructuring effort, while National Australia Bank will reduce 410 jobs and relocate some positions overseas [6]