12月19日，第二十二届中国国际金融论坛在上海举行，《中国离岸金融指数报告（2024-2025）》（下称"《报告》"）于会上发布。 在挑战层面，景建国指出三大亟待突破的瓶颈。一是传统外币业务持续萎缩，存贷款占比降至0.60%，业务结构优化迫在眉睫；二是宏观环境阶段性受 限，宏观经济基本面面临短期压力，对离岸金融业务的市场需求与拓展空间形成一定制约；三是风控体系有待完善，现有风险管控机制仍存在薄弱环节，对 复杂市场环境下的风险识别、预警与处置能力需进一步提升。 记者了解到，这份凝聚行业智慧的报告，由上海国际经济研究院、上海金融业联合会与中国首席经济学家论坛联合发起，上海首席经济学家金融发展中 心离岸金融研究所课题组精心编制。作为观察中国金融双向开放的核心窗口，此次发布不仅为市场注入强心剂，更搭建起政策制定与市场实践的沟通桥梁。 机遇层面，景建国指出，一是要紧握"突破中的动能"，找准发展方向。创新业务借势崛起，人民币国际化进程持续推进，带动离岸金融领域创新业务快 速发展，成为驱动业务增长的"新引擎"，为市场注入强劲活力。二是要制度生态持续优化，以海南封关政策为代表的制度红利逐步释放，政策环境不断完 善，为离岸金融 ...

（原标题：中国离岸金融指数企稳回升 业内专家建议构建现代化离岸金融生态体系） 近日，《中国离岸金融指数报告（2024-2025）》（以下简称"报告"）在上海发布。该报告由上海国际 经济研究院、上海金融业联合会与中国首席经济学家论坛联合发起，上海首席经济学家金融发展中心离 岸金融研究所课题组编制，深度解码中国离岸金融高质量发展的新路径与新机遇。 报告显示，2024年，中国离岸金融指数较2023年的106.16点微升0.31%。上海首席经济学家金融发展中 心离岸金融研究所所长景建国说，看似0.31%的细微增幅，却印证了我国离岸金融市场的韧性，为金融 强国建设筑牢了坚实的市场根基。展望"十五五"，人民币离岸金融正站在战略风口之上，他建议，我国 应全力破解离岸金融的结构性短板，构建起与我国经济地位相称的现代化离岸金融生态体系。 "四升一降"彰显转型质变 在中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平看来，金融国际化离不开离岸金融，而离岸金融不是简单的在岸金 融的延伸，而是一个具有独特功能，在一个更开放环境里进行制度创新和压力测试，可以把离岸金融看 成是试验田和连接器。 这组数据如同精准的"市场心电图"，清晰折射出中国离岸金融已从" ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is focusing on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and enhancing financial services to support the real economy, with an emphasis on key sectors such as technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade [2][3]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC will execute existing monetary policy measures and explore new policy initiatives to ensure liquidity remains ample, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2] - There will be a focus on improving the efficiency of fund usage by revitalizing existing funds and effectively utilizing new funds [2] - The PBOC aims to lower the comprehensive financing costs for society and maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate within a reasonable range [2] Support for the Real Economy - Financial services will be directed towards enhancing the quality of support for the real economy, with a focus on five key areas to improve the specialized and refined capabilities of financial institutions [2] - The PBOC will coordinate fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies to support key industries and address weak links in the economy [2] Financial Supply-Side Reform - The PBOC plans to improve the central bank system and enhance the monetary policy framework to ensure effective transmission of monetary policy [3] - There will be an emphasis on developing the bond market, particularly a "technology board," and promoting the internationalization of the RMB [3] - The PBOC will support the development of the Hainan Free Trade Port and enhance the construction of international financial centers in Shanghai and Hong Kong [3] Financial Risk Management - Monitoring and assessing systemic financial risks will be a priority, with efforts to support the market-oriented transformation of financing platforms and reform small and medium financial institutions [3] - A mechanism for risk disposal that aligns responsibilities and incentives will be established to strengthen the financial safety net [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant achievements of China's financial sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the enhancement of financial services to the real economy, deepening financial reforms, and improving international competitiveness [1][2][4]. Financial Achievements - As of June 2023, China's banking sector total assets reached nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first globally, with stock and bond market sizes ranking second [1]. - Over the past five years, the banking and insurance sectors provided an additional 170 trillion yuan in funding to the real economy, with annual growth rates of 27.2% for scientific research loans, 21.7% for manufacturing medium- and long-term loans, and 10.1% for infrastructure loans [2]. Support for Innovation and SMEs - The financial system has focused on supporting technological innovation, with over 90% of newly listed companies being technology-related. The market capitalization of the A-share technology sector exceeds 25% [2]. - The balance of inclusive loans for small and micro enterprises reached 36 trillion yuan, 2.3 times that of the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2]. Financial Market Opening and Internationalization - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period saw further deepening of reforms and opening up in the financial sector, with high-level institutional opening of capital markets and steady progress in the internationalization of the renminbi [2][3]. - By the end of July 2023, foreign institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits, with panda bond issuance exceeding 1 trillion yuan [2][3]. Risk Management and Financial Stability - The period was crucial for transforming old and new growth drivers, with significant achievements in preventing and mitigating financial risks, including a reduction in the number of high-risk institutions and assets [3]. - By June 2023, the number of financing platforms had decreased by over 60%, and the scale of financial debt had dropped by over 50% compared to the beginning of the year [3]. Future Outlook - The financial sector aims to continue enhancing service quality and efficiency, supporting the real economy and technological innovation, while promoting high-level opening and the internationalization of the renminbi to lay a solid foundation for high-quality development in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Panda Bond Market**: The Panda bond market, which consists of CNY-denominated bonds issued in Mainland China by foreign issuers, has seen significant growth since 2016, driven by regulatory changes and increased demand for diversified funding channels [4][11][20]. Core Insights - **Issuance Trends**: - Panda bond issuance rebounded significantly in recent years, with CNY 117 billion issued in 2025 alone, following CNY 154 billion in 2023 and CNY 195 billion in 2024 [5][13]. - The total outstanding amount of Panda bonds is estimated at CNY 371 billion, with 52% from issuers whose market of risk is Mainland China [19][22]. - **Market Dynamics**: - The growth of the Panda bond market is attributed to two major trends: RMB Internationalization and De-Dollarization, which are expected to continue driving demand [20]. - The market is characterized by a preference for shorter-dated bonds, with 62% of outstanding bonds having a tenor between 1 to 3 years [22]. - **Regulatory Support**: - Recent regulatory changes, including streamlined issuance processes and clarification on the remittance of bond proceeds, have facilitated the growth of the Panda bond market [13][20]. Investment Preferences - **Asia Credit Market**: - The Asia high-yield (HY) credit spreads have widened moderately, while investment-grade (IG) spreads remain stable. A defensive investment stance is recommended, favoring Asia IG over HY [6][9]. - Specific preferences include front-end BBB rated bonds and 7-10 year A rated bonds, particularly in sectors like HK Property and bank capital securities [8]. - **China's Economic Outlook**: - The Chinese economy faces challenges such as a property market slump and deflation, but the current account surplus is expected to average around 3.5% of GDP for 2025 and 2026, indicating resilience [7]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: - The search for yield remains strong among investors, and unless there is a significant downturn in US growth, spreads are likely to remain range-bound [6][9]. - The Panda bond market is seen as complementary to the Dim Sum bond market, catering to different investor bases [20]. - **Future Projections**: - The Asia G3 currency bond issuance is forecasted to reach USD 250 billion by the end of 2025, indicating a robust outlook for the region's credit markets [32]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the Panda bond market's growth, investment preferences in Asia's credit market, and the broader economic context affecting these trends.

RMB Stablecoin Development - Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations are paving the way for RMB stablecoins [1] - Companies like Ant and JD are developing RMB stablecoins [1] Strategic Goals - RMB stablecoins aim to boost cross-border use of RMB [1] - The initiative supports RMB internationalization [1] - A key objective is to challenge the dominance of the US dollar [1] Challenges and Prospects - Trust and regulatory hurdles remain significant challenges [1] - RMB stablecoins are expected to gain traction in trade and offshore settlement [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Hong Kong's Stablecoin Shift Industry Overview - The focus is on the stablecoin industry, particularly in Hong Kong, which is positioned as a testing ground for stablecoin operations amid increasing global regulatory scrutiny and competition [2][10][39]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Regulatory Framework**: Hong Kong's Stablecoins Bill, effective August 1, 2025, aims to enhance the stability and transparency of stablecoins, allowing for the legal issuance of CNH-pegged stablecoins [2][10][51]. 2. **Strategic Importance**: The bill positions Hong Kong as a critical player in the global stablecoin landscape, especially in light of the US GENIUS Act, which may strengthen USD dominance [2][10][19]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: Stablecoin issuers, brokers, and fintech companies with established blockchain technology are expected to benefit first from the new regulations through various fees [3][11][30]. 4. **Adoption Challenges**: The adoption of CNH stablecoins may lag due to China's capital controls and limited offshore RMB liquidity, with market acceptance expected to take time [5][20][63]. 5. **Traditional Financial Models**: Traditional banks and e-commerce platforms are likely to experience gradual transformation rather than disruption, as stablecoins serve as payment means rather than deposits [4][27][28]. 6. **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Futu Holdings, ZhongAn Online, and HK Exchanges & Clearing are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the stablecoin ecosystem due to their strategic positioning [3][33][31]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Global Regulatory Trends**: The global trend towards stablecoin regulation is driven by concerns over financial stability and consumer protection, with various jurisdictions introducing frameworks to govern stablecoin issuance [13][42]. 2. **Market Liquidity Risks**: The early-stage nature of stablecoins presents risks related to market liquidity and volatility, which require careful monitoring [26][37]. 3. **Integration with Traditional Finance**: The integration of stablecoins into regulated financial systems is crucial for their broader adoption, which may be hindered by existing regulatory frameworks [71][72]. 4. **Real-World Use Cases**: The HKMA emphasizes the need for stablecoins to address real-world payment inefficiencies rather than fueling speculative trading [54][39]. 5. **Potential for Cross-Border Transactions**: Stablecoins could facilitate cross-border e-commerce and financial transactions, but adoption may be slow due to existing payment systems and regulatory uncertainties [34][35][36]. Conclusion - The stablecoin landscape in Hong Kong is evolving with significant regulatory developments that could enhance its status as a global financial hub. However, challenges related to adoption, market dynamics, and regulatory compliance remain critical factors to monitor as the industry progresses.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Financial Services, specifically focusing on Stablecoins and RMB Internationalization - **Company**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Core Points and Arguments 1. **PBoC's Plan for RMB**: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) aims to facilitate the opening-up and internationalization of the RMB in a multipolar monetary world [4][5] 2. **Financial Measures in Shanghai**: Eight new financial measures were introduced to strengthen financial infrastructure, enhance Shanghai's role as a financial center, and promote offshore RMB-denominated bond issuance [5][7] 3. **Stablecoins Regulation**: The Hong Kong Stablecoins Bill is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, allowing specified entities to issue stablecoins under strict regulations, including maintaining reserves and public disclosures [8][9] 4. **Market Dynamics**: USD-pegged stablecoins dominate the market, with over $120 billion backed by US Treasury bills, indicating a strong demand for US treasuries [11][12] 5. **RMB's Share in Global FX Reserves**: The share of RMB in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 2.84% in Q1 2022 to 2.18% in Q4 2024, highlighting challenges in RMB internationalization [18][19] 6. **Digital Yuan Initiatives**: The establishment of a Digital Yuan International Operations Center in Shanghai is planned to expand the global reach of the RMB [16] 7. **Crypto Market Growth**: The total crypto market cap reached $3.4 trillion by June 2025, showing significant growth from under $2 trillion at the beginning of 2024 [26] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **RMB Cross-Border Settlement Roadmap**: A detailed timeline of initiatives related to the digital yuan and cross-border settlement systems was provided, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance RMB's global presence [15] 2. **Investor Concerns**: Increased investor concerns over China's economic challenges were noted, which may impact the overall sentiment towards RMB internationalization [21] 3. **Reflation Strategy**: A "5R" reflation strategy was discussed, focusing on fiscal measures and structural reforms to stimulate the economy, with a projected GDP widening of 1.6 percentage points by the end of 2025 [25] 4. **Regulatory Framework for Crypto**: Ongoing efforts to establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in Hong Kong were highlighted, indicating a proactive approach to managing the crypto market [30] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the financial measures, regulatory developments, and market dynamics surrounding stablecoins and RMB internationalization.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Supply-side reform in China is evolving, focusing on mid-to-downstream sectors rather than solely on upstream sectors as in previous reforms [2] - The current reform approach is more nuanced and balanced, addressing advanced capacity rather than outdated capacity [2] - The report anticipates a slowdown in China's real GDP growth to below 4.5% in the second half of 2025 due to diminishing export momentum and fiscal easing [11] Summary by Sections Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side reform is characterized as "new wine in an old bottle," emphasizing the importance of demand for economic reflation [2] - The targeted sectors have shifted from SOE-dominated to POE-dominated firms, indicating a change in ownership dynamics [2] Economic Growth - China's real GDP growth is projected to decline to less than 4.5% in the latter half of 2025, influenced by fading export growth and fiscal easing measures [11] - The economy is expected to remain on a slow reflation path, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving robust growth [11] Housing Market - The housing market continues to face challenges, with elevated inventory levels in lower-tier cities and a persistent decline in housing prices [21] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is considering expanding funding channels to address housing inventory issues, which may depend on various factors including funding size and developer selection [22] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal space in China is becoming more constrained, with major tax revenues and land sales underperforming against budget expectations [38][43] - The report suggests that China needs not only new stimulus measures but also a reformed growth algorithm to address structural issues in the economy [44] Reflation Strategy - The report outlines a "5R" reflation strategy, which includes measures such as expanding fiscal deficits, monetary easing, and social welfare spending to stimulate consumption [47] - The strategy aims for a gradual and uneven progress towards economic recovery, with various policy measures expected to be implemented by the end of 2025 [47]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a solid investment outlook for the China economy, with expectations of a supplementary budget of Rmb0.5-1 trillion in response to weaker data in the coming months [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a robust performance in Q2 2025, but notes a softening momentum, suggesting that a fall stimulus is likely to be implemented [2][3]. - Structural reforms are deemed essential for sustained economic reflation, with a focus on social welfare reform, debt restructuring, and improving fiscal governance [3]. - Retail sales have remained strong, particularly in the auto and home appliance sectors, although there are concerns about subdued sales in other consumer goods categories [5][7]. - Exports are expected to slow further, despite a rebound in US-bound shipping, indicating potential challenges in international trade [10][12]. - The housing market is experiencing a downturn, with secondary home sales weakening and local government financing pressures increasing [15][20]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Q2 2025 data shows solid economic performance, but momentum is softening, leading to expectations of a fall stimulus [2][3]. - Retail sales in June were strong, driven by front-loaded demand in the auto and home appliance sectors [5]. Policy Outlook - The report anticipates a supplementary budget of Rmb0.5-1 trillion to address weaker economic data in the upcoming months [3]. - Structural reforms are necessary for sustained reflation, focusing on social welfare, debt restructuring, and fiscal governance [3]. Trade and Exports - Exports are likely to slow further, with June showing a decline despite a rebound in US-bound shipping [10][12]. - Container throughput at major ports has slipped sharply, indicating challenges in trade logistics [11]. Housing Market - The housing market is under pressure, with secondary home sales weakening and local government financing facing challenges [15][20]. - Major tax revenues and land sales have underperformed, contributing to fiscal pressures [20]. Construction Activity - Weak construction activities are indicated by subdued demand for rebar and cement, suggesting a slowdown in overall construction [21][23]. RMB Internationalization - The report discusses the roadmap for RMB cross-border settlement and highlights the importance of stablecoins in reinforcing dollar dominance in the near term [27][28].