💥BREAKING:🇨🇳 CHINA REMOVES TOP TRADE NEGOTIATOR LI CHENGGANG FROM WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION ROLE. ...

JUST IN: 🇨🇳 China removes top trade negotiator Li Chenggang from World Trade Organization role. ...

Trade Dynamics - China's imports of US grain via major ports decreased significantly, with US grain transport ship arrivals down 56% year-on-year from January to September, falling from 72 to 32 [1] - Since July, there have been zero arrivals of grain transport ships from the US at the mentioned ports [1] - Grain transport ships from South American countries like Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay have increased, averaging over 40 arrivals per month since May, with 90% transporting soybeans [1] - As of September 11, China had not booked any US soybeans for the new sales season, a first since 1999 [1] - The US could lose 14 million to 16 million tons of soybean orders from China if China does not return to the US market by mid-November [1] - The US accounted for one-fifth of China's soybean imports last year, valued at over $12 billion, representing more than half of total US soybean exports [1] - China is using commodities as leverage in broader trade negotiations [1]

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Talks - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are engaged in trade and economic discussions in Madrid, Spain [1] - U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that the U.S.-China trade negotiations are progressing well, which has influenced market expectations [2] - A "framework" deal regarding the divestment of Chinese-owned TikTok was announced, with commercial specifics already settled [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - European stocks showed mixed signals ahead of the market open, with the U.K.'s FTSE and Germany's DAX expected to open slightly higher, while France's CAC 40 and Italy's FTSE MIB are projected to open lower [2] - Japan's Nikkei 225 index surpassed the 45,000 mark for the first time, indicating strong performance in the Asia-Pacific markets [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - In the U.S., S&P 500 futures remained flat as the Senate confirmed Trump's Federal Reserve pick, Stephen Miran, ahead of a central bank meeting on interest rates [5] - Upcoming European economic data includes U.K. unemployment figures, Italian inflation, EU industrial production data, and German economic sentiment readings [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. and China have reached a framework deal allowing TikTok to continue operations in the U.S. amid ongoing trade negotiations, preventing a potential shutdown [1][2] - The deal involves a transition to U.S.-controlled ownership of TikTok, as stated by Bessent following negotiations with the Chinese delegation [1] - President Trump is set to discuss the finalization of the deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping [1][4] Group 2 - U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated a possible short extension of the September 17 deadline, which would not have occurred without the framework agreement [2] - China is reportedly seeking concessions from the U.S. on trade and technology policy in exchange for divesting from TikTok, with Bessent noting aggressive demands from the Chinese side [4] - Trump expressed optimism about the trade meeting outcomes, highlighting a deal that would please young Americans regarding TikTok [4]

Core Points - U.S. and Chinese trade negotiations are ongoing in Madrid, focusing on key issues such as tariff rates, export controls, and the divestment of TikTok [1][2] - The talks represent the fourth round of bilateral meetings in four months, following a previous agreement to pause steep tariffs and reduce mutual restrictions [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated progress on technical details and a potential agreement on TikTok, despite aggressive demands from the Chinese side [3][4] Trade and Economic Relations - The negotiations are led by high-level officials from both countries, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer representing the U.S., while Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and top negotiator Li Chenggang represent China [2] - Recent tensions have escalated, particularly with China launching investigations into the U.S. semiconductor industry, including anti-dumping and anti-discrimination probes [4][5] - The U.S. added 23 more China-based companies to its entity list, prompting China's market regulator to investigate Nvidia for potential anti-competition violations [5][6] Industry Implications - Nvidia has become a focal point in the negotiations, with its situation being used as leverage by both the U.S. and China [6] - The ongoing investigations into Nvidia are perceived as part of China's negotiation tactics to assert its position against the U.S. [6]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister, Akizawa Ryozo, is set to visit the United States from August 28 to 30 for trade negotiations, aiming to urge the U.S. to reduce tariffs on Japanese automobiles [1] Group 1 - The visit is part of ongoing trade discussions between Japan and the United States [1] - The focus of the negotiations will be on automotive tariffs, which are a significant concern for Japan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Canada is leveraging its pension fund industry to enhance investment in the U.S., with potential for significant growth in future investments [1] Group 1: Investment Potential - The Canadian pension fund industry has already invested over $1 trillion in the U.S. [1] - There is an expectation for annual growth in investments by an additional $100 billion or more [1]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Vietnam to Overweight (OW) within ASEAN, alongside Singapore and the Philippines, while maintaining Neutral on Indonesia and Malaysia, and Underweight on Thailand [1][18]. Core Insights - Vietnam's recent tariff deal with the US, setting a 20% rate on domestically-produced goods, is viewed as a significant positive development, potentially boosting foreign direct investment (FDI) and supporting economic growth [3][19]. - The report anticipates that announcements of trade deals and lower tariffs will serve as key catalysts for market movements in the near term, particularly for countries actively negotiating with the US [4][19]. - Despite the positive outlook, the report cautions that it is still early for earnings forecasts to rebound, with potential risks of downward revisions remaining [4][19]. Summary by Sections Tariff Negotiations - Vietnam has successfully negotiated a reduction in tariffs from 46% to 20%, with a 40% tariff on transshipment goods, which may impact exports with significant Chinese content [5][19]. - Other ASEAN countries, including Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, are still in discussions with the US regarding tariff negotiations [1][5]. Economic Growth and FDI - Vietnam's GDP growth is projected to approach 8% in 2Q25, driven by public spending and investment disbursement, distinguishing it from other ASEAN nations with limited fiscal room [18][20]. - The report highlights that Vietnam's manufacturing and export sectors are expected to remain resilient, supported by a favorable tariff environment compared to China [19][20]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include industrial real estate, ports, logistics, construction, and technology producers, which are expected to benefit from the lifting of uncertainties surrounding trade policies [4][15]. - The report recommends a focus on domestic growth proxies, particularly in Vietnam's banking, industrial, and consumer discretionary sectors [18][19].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: On July 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.0% to 776.82 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.2% to 889 yuan/kilogram. Trump extended the tariff suspension to August 1 and pressured for talks. The new tariff letter's tax rate did not increase significantly, and the US said it would meet with Chinese officials next month. This eased tariff concerns and reduced safe - haven demand, which was bearish for precious metals from a macro perspective. Also, the US economic data was okay, the economic downturn risk in the second half of the year weakened, and the Fed was unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, which also suppressed precious metals. However, due to tariff policy uncertainties, China's central bank's continuous gold - buying for 8 months, and weakening US inflation expectations with a September rate - cut expectation, gold prices were unlikely to decline significantly. So, in the short term, precious metals were expected to continue to fluctuate [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still had a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, global central banks' gold - buying continued. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of gold remained unchanged. The strategy suggested continuous low - buying [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Tracking - **15 - point prices of domestic and foreign gold and silver**: On July 9, 2025, London gold spot was 3293.35 dollars/ounce, down 1.3% from July 8; London silver spot was 36.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. COMEX gold was 3301.80 dollars/ounce, down 1.3%; CONEX silver was 36.80 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. AU2508 was 764.70 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG2508 was 8879.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.5%. AU (T + D) was 763.00 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG (T + D) was 8864.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.6% [3]. - **Price differences/ratios**: On July 9, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 1.7 yuan/gram, up - 8.6% from July 8; the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 15 yuan/kilogram, up 36.4%. The gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was 5.50 yuan/gram, up 11.3%; the silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was - 574 yuan/kilogram, up - 1.9%. The SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 86.12, down - 0.7%; the COMEX main ratio was 89.72, down - 0.6%. AU2512 - 2508 was 3.82 yuan/gram, down - 6.4%; AG2512 - 2508 was 40 yuan/kilogram, down - 14.9% [3]. Position Data - **ETF and COMEX non - commercial positions**: As of July 8, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 946.51 tons, down - 0.12% from July 7; the silver ETF - SLV was 14935.15145 tons, up 0.45%. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 258631 contracts, up 1.00%; non - commercial short positions were 56651 contracts, down - 7.24%; non - commercial net long positions were 201980 contracts, up 3.58%. CONEX silver non - commercial long positions were 82747 contracts, down - 2.06%; non - commercial short positions were 19347 contracts, down - 10.20%; non - commercial net long positions were 63400 contracts, up 0.72% [3]. Inventory Data - **Domestic and foreign inventories**: On July 9, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 21585.00 kilograms, up 0.13% from July 8; SHFE silver inventory was 1320909.00 kilograms, down - 1.04%. On July 8, COMEX gold inventory was 36876794 ounces, up 0.43% from July 7; COMEX silver inventory was 497932946 ounces, down - 0.07% [3]. Related Market Indexes - **July 9, 2025 data**: The dollar index was 97.49, up 0.01% from July 8; the US 2 - year Treasury yield was 3.90%, unchanged; the 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.42%, up 0.06%. VIX was 16.81, down - 5.51%; the S&P 500 was 6225.52, up 0.45%; NYMEX crude oil was 68.18 dollars/barrel, down - 0.07%. The dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.15, up 0.38% [4].