Recent market chatter suggests HP may raise its 2026 notebook shipment outlook. My latest supply-chain surveys indicate this is not the case. HP has only verbally asked suppliers to extend lead times from about one month to six months, while full-year shipment volume remains largely unchanged. Since there’s no upfront payment, suppliers are unlikely to truly build inventory at that level—though some incremental stocking may occur, creating the appearance of order growth.Two key takeaways:1. A notable increa ...

Supply Chain Shift - US tariffs on Chinese goods led to a dramatic supply chain shift in the video game console industry [1] - China's share of US console imports decreased from nearly 90% to less than 5% due to tariffs as high as 88% [2] - Vietnam's share of US console imports increased to 75% or more with tariffs of about 10% or less [2] - Vietnamese manufacturers' monthly exports of video game consoles to the US increased from less than 30 million USD to over 400 million USD [3] Production and Investment - Key suppliers for Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo have been building or acquiring new factories and warehouse space in Vietnam since early 2024 [3] - Analysts predict that production lines will not revert back to China, even if the tariffs disappear [3] Market Impact - US holiday shoppers may not have noticed the supply chain realignment because store shelves have remained stocked [4] - Consumers may have noticed price increases on some older video game console models due to the tariffs [4]

Supply Chain Shift - US tariffs on China, reaching as high as 88%, triggered a significant supply chain shift in the video game console industry [1][2] - Vietnam has become a primary source for US console imports, accounting for 75% or more, due to tariffs of approximately 10% or less [2] - Key suppliers for Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo have been establishing or expanding manufacturing and warehouse facilities in Vietnam since early 2024 [3] Production and Export - Vietnamese manufacturers experienced a substantial increase in video game console exports to the US, rising from under $30 million per month to over $400 million per month [3] Market Impact - Despite the supply chain realignment, US store shelves have remained stocked with video game consoles [4] - Consumers may have observed price increases in some older console models due to the tariffs [4] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the production shift to Vietnam is likely to be permanent, even if tariffs are removed [3]

Product & Supply Chain - Blackwell sales are off the charts, and GPUs in the cloud are sold out, but the company has plenty of Blackwells to sell with a well-planned supply chain [1][2][3] - Vera Rubin silicon chips are back in the labs, with bring-up on track for Q3 of next year, continuing the company's annual cycle [5][6] - The rack scale architecture, including Envy Link 72, is revolutionary and will transition smoothly from Grace Blackwell to Vera Rubin, leveraging existing supply chains [6][7][8] China Market - The company's forecast for the China market is zero, despite it being a potentially $50 billion market [10][12] - The company aims to re-engage with the Chinese market with competitive products, pending government approvals [11][13] Compliance & Diversion - The company is permitted to export up to 35,000 Blackwell chips each to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with measures in place to prevent technology diversion to China [14] - The company has been rigorous in preventing diversion, testing data centers and implementing technological and process controls [15][16] Energy & Infrastructure - The company's growth rate makes everything a challenge, requiring world-class supply chain management and collaboration with energy providers [16][17] - The company's large network of partners, including cloud service providers and OEMs, helps in finding power solutions globally [18] AI & Market Demand - The company's architecture runs virtually every model, including premier frontier models like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Gemini [19] - The company is disciplined in aligning with partners like OpenAI and Anthropic, considering demand visibility and financing capabilities before building out capacity [21][22] - There is exponential growth in compute demand for AI, with companies struggling to keep up with demand, highlighting the need for increased capacity and optimization [23][24][25]

Supply Chain Visibility - Increasing need for companies to have visibility on their entire supply chain [1] - Companies have taken many steps to improve supply chain visibility, but more needs to be done [1]

US-China Relations & Trade - The US-China relationship has been strained for some time, requiring better management, especially considering China's significant population (14 billion or 15% of the world's population) and substantial trade volume with the US [6][7] - The US and China's trade relationship involves approximately $700 billion (trillion) in trade, making China a crucial trading partner [7] - Discussions on critical issues like rare earth minerals and port controls are essential for improving the US-China relationship [7] - Despite President Trump's positive remarks about Xi Jinping, tensions persist, highlighting the need for in-depth, face-to-face conversations to address critical issues [8] - Concerns exist regarding China's failure to fully honor previous agreements on tech transfer, supply chain issues, forced tech transfer, intellectual property, and grain purchases (originally promised at $200 billion) [15] - China's ongoing deals with countries like Malaysia and its continued purchase of Russian oil raise concerns about broader global relationships and energy dynamics [16] Semiconductor & Export Controls - Uncertainty surrounds the export of the Blackwell chip to China, with ambiguity regarding permissions from President Trump and Jensen Huang [10] - Export controls on semiconductors, particularly the Blackwell chip, were not thoroughly discussed during the US-China meeting, raising concerns [9] - Military-grade chips are potentially being routed to Russia through various countries, with some disguised as replacement parts for appliances [11][12] Nuclear Proliferation & Testing - The US administration appeared surprised by the announcement regarding the potential restart of nuclear testing, which has been largely halted since the early 1990s [2] - Risks of nuclear proliferation exist due to relationships between North Korea and Russia [4] Geopolitical Strategy - Xi Jinping is engaging in a charm offensive with other Asian nations, raising concerns about China's broader geopolitical strategy [13][14]

Supply Chain Restructuring - US toy company Learning Resources is rebuilding its entire supply chain from the ground up [1] - The company is relocating its supply chain to Vietnam [1] - This move is a direct consequence of Trump's tariff war [1] Challenges and Impact - The company faces struggles along the way in quitting China [1] - The company's journey to quit China is tumultuous [1]

Trump’s tariff war is forcing one US toy company to rebuild its entire supply chain from the ground up in Vietnam. On today’s Big Take Asia podcast, we follow @LearningHandsOn’s tumultuous journey to quit China and the struggles they face along the way.🎙️ Listen now: https://t.co/wELgUxXAEf ...

Trump’s tariff war is forcing one US toy company to rebuild its entire supply chain from the ground up in Vietnam. On today’s Big Take Asia podcast, we follow @LearningHandsOn’s tumultuous journey to quit China and the struggles they face along the way. https://t.co/fbJUvmwKkV ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue decreased 1% sequentially to $3 billion, with the Alumina segment seeing a 9% decrease in third-party revenue due to lower volumes and bauxite prices [16] - Net income attributable to Alcoa was $232 million, up from $164 million in the prior quarter, with earnings per share increasing to $0.88 [17] - Adjusted EBITDA was $270 million, reflecting a sequential decrease of $43 million primarily due to increased U.S. Section 232 tariff costs [18][19] - Year-to-date return on equity was 14.5%, and cash flow activities included a tax refund of $69 million from the Australian Tax Office [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue decreased 9% due to lower volumes and prices, while the Aluminum segment saw a 4% increase in revenue driven by higher average realized prices [16] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Alumina segment decreased by $72 million, while the Aluminum segment's adjusted EBITDA increased by $210 million due to higher metal prices and lower alumina costs [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Alumina prices have declined significantly, with recent prices around $315 per metric ton due to ample spot availability and refinery expansions in Indonesia and China [26] - LME prices rose approximately 7% sequentially, recently reaching $2,775 per metric ton, reflecting a combination of factors including a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent supply tightness [29] - The Midwest premium increased during the third quarter, reaching import parity, which reflects declining inventories and reduced aluminum imports [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on increasing profitability through higher shipments, improved operations, and key investments such as the Messina Energy contract and anode bake furnace [14] - A new long-term energy contract for Messina operations was announced, along with a $60 million investment in the anode bake furnace to enhance operational efficiency [12] - The company is evaluating M&A opportunities across the product line but does not have a specific focus at this time [41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the importance of safety following a workplace fatality and reiterated their commitment to providing a safe working environment [5][6] - The outlook for the Alumina segment is expected to improve by approximately $80 million in 2025, while the Aluminum segment anticipates unfavorable impacts of about $20 million due to restart inefficiencies [23][24] - Management noted that demand remains steady across Europe and North America, with healthy growth in packaging and electrical sectors, while the automotive sector is weak [31][32] Other Important Information - The company announced a partnership with the U.S. and Australian governments to develop a gallium plant at the Wagerup alumina refinery, which is expected to provide strategic benefits [10][11] - The Kwinana refinery's permanent closure resulted in significant asset retirement obligations, impacting the financial results [8][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital allocation and M&A opportunities - Management indicated that they are close to their net debt target and will prioritize debt repayment while evaluating returns to shareholders and growth options [40][41] Question: U.S.-Australia Alcoa partnership - The partnership was initiated with Japanese entities and aims to establish a gallium supply chain outside of China, with first production expected by 2026 [45][48] Question: Canadian negotiations and domestic capacity expansion - Management is providing information to both U.S. and Canadian governments regarding trade flows and noted that competitive energy prices for long-term contracts in the U.S. are still lacking [54][55] Question: Gallium project economics and mining permitting - The gallium project is not a large investment and will be financed by several governments, with no impact on the ongoing mining permitting process [66][67] Question: Interest in idled assets and data centers - Management confirmed ongoing interest in data centers and AI centers, with significant efforts to market sites with existing electrical infrastructure [120] Question: Demand profile and market conditions - Management does not see significant demand destruction but noted weakness in the automotive sector, attributing it to potential substitution by electric vehicles from China [122]