Product & Supply Chain - Blackwell sales are off the charts, and GPUs in the cloud are sold out, but the company has plenty of Blackwells to sell with a well-planned supply chain [1][2][3] - Vera Rubin silicon chips are back in the labs, with bring-up on track for Q3 of next year, continuing the company's annual cycle [5][6] - The rack scale architecture, including Envy Link 72, is revolutionary and will transition smoothly from Grace Blackwell to Vera Rubin, leveraging existing supply chains [6][7][8] China Market - The company's forecast for the China market is zero, despite it being a potentially $50 billion market [10][12] - The company aims to re-engage with the Chinese market with competitive products, pending government approvals [11][13] Compliance & Diversion - The company is permitted to export up to 35,000 Blackwell chips each to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with measures in place to prevent technology diversion to China [14] - The company has been rigorous in preventing diversion, testing data centers and implementing technological and process controls [15][16] Energy & Infrastructure - The company's growth rate makes everything a challenge, requiring world-class supply chain management and collaboration with energy providers [16][17] - The company's large network of partners, including cloud service providers and OEMs, helps in finding power solutions globally [18] AI & Market Demand - The company's architecture runs virtually every model, including premier frontier models like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Gemini [19] - The company is disciplined in aligning with partners like OpenAI and Anthropic, considering demand visibility and financing capabilities before building out capacity [21][22] - There is exponential growth in compute demand for AI, with companies struggling to keep up with demand, highlighting the need for increased capacity and optimization [23][24][25]

RT Bloomberg New Economy (@BBGNewEconomy)"I think there's increasing need to have visibility on your entire supply chain. Companies have taken many steps to get that, but there is more to be done." Chair of the Board @Mastercard and @Columbia Dean Emerita Merit Janow #BloombergNewEconomy⏯️ https://t.co/Sqkf8dKmnN https://t.co/O6ZMoJtPUy ...

US-China Relations & Trade - The US-China relationship has been strained for some time, requiring better management, especially considering China's significant population (14 billion or 15% of the world's population) and substantial trade volume with the US [6][7] - The US and China's trade relationship involves approximately $700 billion (trillion) in trade, making China a crucial trading partner [7] - Discussions on critical issues like rare earth minerals and port controls are essential for improving the US-China relationship [7] - Despite President Trump's positive remarks about Xi Jinping, tensions persist, highlighting the need for in-depth, face-to-face conversations to address critical issues [8] - Concerns exist regarding China's failure to fully honor previous agreements on tech transfer, supply chain issues, forced tech transfer, intellectual property, and grain purchases (originally promised at $200 billion) [15] - China's ongoing deals with countries like Malaysia and its continued purchase of Russian oil raise concerns about broader global relationships and energy dynamics [16] Semiconductor & Export Controls - Uncertainty surrounds the export of the Blackwell chip to China, with ambiguity regarding permissions from President Trump and Jensen Huang [10] - Export controls on semiconductors, particularly the Blackwell chip, were not thoroughly discussed during the US-China meeting, raising concerns [9] - Military-grade chips are potentially being routed to Russia through various countries, with some disguised as replacement parts for appliances [11][12] Nuclear Proliferation & Testing - The US administration appeared surprised by the announcement regarding the potential restart of nuclear testing, which has been largely halted since the early 1990s [2] - Risks of nuclear proliferation exist due to relationships between North Korea and Russia [4] Geopolitical Strategy - Xi Jinping is engaging in a charm offensive with other Asian nations, raising concerns about China's broader geopolitical strategy [13][14]

Supply Chain Restructuring - US toy company Learning Resources is rebuilding its entire supply chain from the ground up [1] - The company is relocating its supply chain to Vietnam [1] - This move is a direct consequence of Trump's tariff war [1] Challenges and Impact - The company faces struggles along the way in quitting China [1] - The company's journey to quit China is tumultuous [1]

Trump’s tariff war is forcing one US toy company to rebuild its entire supply chain from the ground up in Vietnam. On today’s Big Take Asia podcast, we follow @LearningHandsOn’s tumultuous journey to quit China and the struggles they face along the way.🎙️ Listen now: https://t.co/wELgUxXAEf ...

Trump’s tariff war is forcing one US toy company to rebuild its entire supply chain from the ground up in Vietnam. On today’s Big Take Asia podcast, we follow @LearningHandsOn’s tumultuous journey to quit China and the struggles they face along the way. https://t.co/fbJUvmwKkV ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue decreased 1% sequentially to $3 billion, with the Alumina segment seeing a 9% decrease in third-party revenue due to lower volumes and bauxite prices [16] - Net income attributable to Alcoa was $232 million, up from $164 million in the prior quarter, with earnings per share increasing to $0.88 [17] - Adjusted EBITDA was $270 million, reflecting a sequential decrease of $43 million primarily due to increased U.S. Section 232 tariff costs [18][19] - Year-to-date return on equity was 14.5%, and cash flow activities included a tax refund of $69 million from the Australian Tax Office [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue decreased 9% due to lower volumes and prices, while the Aluminum segment saw a 4% increase in revenue driven by higher average realized prices [16] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Alumina segment decreased by $72 million, while the Aluminum segment's adjusted EBITDA increased by $210 million due to higher metal prices and lower alumina costs [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Alumina prices have declined significantly, with recent prices around $315 per metric ton due to ample spot availability and refinery expansions in Indonesia and China [26] - LME prices rose approximately 7% sequentially, recently reaching $2,775 per metric ton, reflecting a combination of factors including a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent supply tightness [29] - The Midwest premium increased during the third quarter, reaching import parity, which reflects declining inventories and reduced aluminum imports [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on increasing profitability through higher shipments, improved operations, and key investments such as the Messina Energy contract and anode bake furnace [14] - A new long-term energy contract for Messina operations was announced, along with a $60 million investment in the anode bake furnace to enhance operational efficiency [12] - The company is evaluating M&A opportunities across the product line but does not have a specific focus at this time [41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the importance of safety following a workplace fatality and reiterated their commitment to providing a safe working environment [5][6] - The outlook for the Alumina segment is expected to improve by approximately $80 million in 2025, while the Aluminum segment anticipates unfavorable impacts of about $20 million due to restart inefficiencies [23][24] - Management noted that demand remains steady across Europe and North America, with healthy growth in packaging and electrical sectors, while the automotive sector is weak [31][32] Other Important Information - The company announced a partnership with the U.S. and Australian governments to develop a gallium plant at the Wagerup alumina refinery, which is expected to provide strategic benefits [10][11] - The Kwinana refinery's permanent closure resulted in significant asset retirement obligations, impacting the financial results [8][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital allocation and M&A opportunities - Management indicated that they are close to their net debt target and will prioritize debt repayment while evaluating returns to shareholders and growth options [40][41] Question: U.S.-Australia Alcoa partnership - The partnership was initiated with Japanese entities and aims to establish a gallium supply chain outside of China, with first production expected by 2026 [45][48] Question: Canadian negotiations and domestic capacity expansion - Management is providing information to both U.S. and Canadian governments regarding trade flows and noted that competitive energy prices for long-term contracts in the U.S. are still lacking [54][55] Question: Gallium project economics and mining permitting - The gallium project is not a large investment and will be financed by several governments, with no impact on the ongoing mining permitting process [66][67] Question: Interest in idled assets and data centers - Management confirmed ongoing interest in data centers and AI centers, with significant efforts to market sites with existing electrical infrastructure [120] Question: Demand profile and market conditions - Management does not see significant demand destruction but noted weakness in the automotive sector, attributing it to potential substitution by electric vehicles from China [122]

Establishing a supply chain to produce rare earths outside of China isn't expensive, @davidfickling says. If only governments stepped up (via @opinion) https://t.co/5a8FREGrVu ...

Supply Chain Diversification - Apple is expanding manufacturing in Vietnam to reduce dependence on China, focusing on smart home devices [1][2] - The company's supply chain is diversifying across Southeast Asia, including India (iPhones), Vietnam (Apple Watch, home devices, AirPods), and Thailand/Malaysia (Macs) [7] - Apple aims to maintain agility in its supply chain, shifting production between countries based on tariffs and geopolitical factors [13] Product Development & Strategy - Apple is developing new smart home devices, including a smart home port, a tabletop robot, and a security camera, primarily manufactured in Vietnam [2][3] - The company is working with BYD, a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, for mass manufacturing of these devices in Vietnam [4] - Apple intends to launch the home hub device in March/April 2026 [17] Geopolitical & Economic Factors - China production caters to China and regions outside the US, while India serves the US market, largely due to tariff considerations [6] - Tariffs have had a negligible impact on Apple so far, costing a few billion dollars, but 2026 is anticipated as a key year for tariff impact [14] - Apple carefully manages its relationship with the Chinese government by continuing to build products for China within China [10]

Ford will buy less lithium and delay taking shipments from Australian producer Liontown, the latest sign of strain in the EV supply chain https://t.co/AUgGPIDTZ9 ...