Core Insights - The overall fiscal operation in China is stable in the first half of the year, with a slight decline in public budget revenue and a gradual recovery in tax revenue [1][3] Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - National general public budget revenue reached 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Tax revenue for the first half was 92,900 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, but monthly tax revenue has shown growth for three consecutive months starting from April [1][3] - Major tax categories showed stable growth, with domestic VAT, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax increasing by 2.8%, 1.7%, and 8% respectively [3] Group 2: Non-Tax Revenue - National non-tax revenue amounted to 22,700 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, but the growth rate fell by 5.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [5][6] - Non-tax revenue saw declines in May and June, with decreases of 2.2% and 3.7% respectively [5] - Revenue from state-owned resources (assets) increased by 4.8%, while administrative fees grew by 1%, but the growth rate decreased by 4.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter [6] Group 3: Regional Revenue Performance - Most regions maintained revenue growth, with local general public budget revenue increasing by 1.6% in the first half [8] - Revenue growth varied by region, with eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions growing by 1.3%, 1.3%, 2%, and 5.7% respectively [8] - Out of 31 provinces, 27 achieved revenue growth [8] Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure reached 141,300 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [10] - Expenditures in social security and employment, education, science and technology, and energy conservation and environmental protection all grew by over 5% [10] - Local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds contributed to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure, totaling 24,300 billion yuan [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Gansu Province has achieved stable growth in fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first half of the year, with both surpassing the halfway mark of their respective annual targets [1][2] - Gansu Province's general public budget revenue reached 57.38 billion yuan, completing 52.8% of the annual budget and showing a growth of 4.1% [1] - The general public budget expenditure amounted to 257.17 billion yuan, achieving 52.2% of the expected annual expenditure, with a growth rate of 5.5% [1] Group 2 - Fiscal revenue exceeded expectations due to proactive measures taken by various fiscal departments, including enhanced revenue monitoring and inter-departmental collaboration [1] - The acceleration of fiscal expenditure growth is attributed to efforts in securing central support and optimizing the issuance of government bonds, while also reducing administrative costs [2] - In the first half of the year, spending on 11 categories of livelihood-related expenditures reached 208.15 billion yuan, growing by 6.5% and accounting for 80.9% of total fiscal expenditure [2]

Group 1: Public Budget Revenue and Expenditure - In the first five months of the year, the national general public budget revenue reached 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first four months [1] - National general public budget expenditure increased to 112,953 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [1] - Tax revenue, which is a key component of public budget revenue, totaled 79,156 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous four months [1] Group 2: Tax Revenue Performance - Domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax all experienced year-on-year growth in the first five months [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector showed strong tax revenue growth, with railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment manufacturing tax revenue increasing by 28.8%, and computer and communication equipment manufacturing tax revenue rising by 11.9% [1] - The cultural, sports, and entertainment industry saw a tax revenue increase of 7.8%, driven by the expansion of the old-for-new consumption policy and the release of cultural tourism demand [1] Group 3: Non-Tax Revenue and Expenditure Structure - Non-tax revenue for the first five months was 17,467 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, primarily driven by asset revitalization [2] - Social security and employment expenditure reached 20,054 billion yuan, growing by 9.2% year-on-year, while education expenditure was 17,455 billion yuan, up by 6.7% [2] - Government fund budget expenditure totaled 32,125 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 16% [2]

Group 1: Audit Report Overview - The audit report highlights significant disciplinary violations and audit rectification situations, with the number of cases, individuals, and amounts involved being at a median level over the past five years[6] - The report covers eight key areas, including audit rectification, central financial management, and major project audits[17] - As of March 2025, over 6,540 billion yuan has been rectified in response to issues identified in the 2023 audit, with 1,710 regulations improved and over 4,120 individuals held accountable[17] Group 2: Key Findings - Since May 2024, 430 major disciplinary violations have been discovered, involving over 1,400 individuals and exceeding 630 billion yuan, which is lower than the figures from 2020 and 2021[24] - The central department budget execution audit revealed that 42 departments received 619.96 billion yuan in fiscal allocations for 2024, with identified issues amounting to 28.15 billion yuan[7] - The audit of pension funds across 25 provinces found issues totaling 60.16 billion yuan, with 41.41 billion yuan being misappropriated or fraudulently claimed[28] Group 3: Specific Issues Identified - The audit uncovered 1,325.97 billion yuan in issues related to local government special bonds, highlighting risks associated with hidden debts[27] - Violations of the central eight regulations were noted, with expenditures amounting to 18.19 million yuan on extravagant activities[29] - The report identified ongoing issues with zero-based budgeting, including 53.09 million yuan allocated for outdated subsidies[29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the implementation of an active fiscal policy in China to support stable economic operations, with a focus on increasing government spending despite a slight decline in revenue [2][12] - In the first five months of 2025, the general public budget expenditure reached 11.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, with a completion rate of 37.4%, which is close to the average of the past five years [8][9] - The broad fiscal expenditure is projected to be 14.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 6.6%, while the revenue is expected to be 11.2 trillion yuan, showing a decline of about 1.3% [2][3] Group 2 - The general public budget revenue for the first five months was 9.7 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with tax revenue declining by 1.6% to 7.9 trillion yuan [3][4] - Non-tax revenue increased by 6.2% to 1.7 trillion yuan, although it experienced a decline in May compared to the same month last year, marking the first negative growth in 2024 [4][6] - Government bond issuance accelerated, with 6.29 trillion yuan issued in the first five months, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%, to support fiscal spending [8][12] Group 3 - The government is focusing on social welfare, education, and health, with social security and employment spending reaching 2 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.2%, and education spending at 1.7 trillion yuan, up 6.7% [9][12] - The local government fund revenue, primarily from land sales, declined by 6.9% to 15.48 billion yuan, with land use rights revenue dropping by 11.9% to 11.28 billion yuan [7][8] - The fiscal deficit for the first five months was approximately 3.3 trillion yuan, indicating a deficit rate of 2.4%, which is higher than most levels in the past five years [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported a decline in national public budget revenue for the first five months of the year, indicating challenges in fiscal performance despite some positive trends in specific tax categories [2][3]. Revenue Analysis - Total public budget revenue reached 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [2]. - Tax revenue amounted to 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 6.2% to 17,467 billion yuan [2]. - Central government revenue was 41,486 billion yuan, a decline of 3%, while local government revenue grew by 1.9% to 55,137 billion yuan [2]. Tax Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax grew by 2.4% to 30,850 billion yuan, with the increase attributed to a low base effect from the previous year [3]. - Corporate income tax saw a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, although the rate of decline improved by 0.6 percentage points [2][3]. - Personal income tax increased by 8.2%, benefiting from a low base effect as well [2][3]. - Securities transaction stamp duty surged by 52.4% to 66.8 billion yuan, indicating a significant recovery in capital market activity [3]. Expenditure Trends - National public budget expenditure reached 112,953 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [3]. - Spending on livelihood-related areas maintained a growth rate of approximately 7.8%, while infrastructure spending decreased by 7.7% [4]. - Expenditure on technology and innovation surged by 20.1%, highlighting a focus on enhancing industrial resilience [4]. Fiscal Policy Outlook - The overall fiscal deficit reached 3.30 trillion yuan by May, with a deficit rate of 2.4%, higher than most levels in the past five years [5]. - The sustainability of fiscal efforts post-June is under scrutiny, especially as previous fiscal measures have relied heavily on government debt financing [5]. - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for timely policy adjustments to stabilize employment and the economy, with expectations for more fiscal measures in the second half of the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The audit report from the National Audit Office outlines the central budget execution and other fiscal revenues and expenditures for the year 2024, indicating a balanced budget with a deficit of 33,400 million yuan [1] Group 1: Central Budget Overview - The total revenue of the central general public budget is projected to be 108,844.06 million yuan, while the total expenditure is expected to reach 142,244.06 million yuan, resulting in a deficit of 33,400 million yuan, which aligns with the budget plan [1] - The central government fund budget is expected to have a total revenue of 15,126.64 million yuan and total expenditure of 14,711.77 million yuan [1] - The central state-owned capital operation budget is projected to have a revenue of 2,359.42 million yuan and expenditure of 2,305.2 million yuan [1] - The central social insurance fund budget is expected to have a revenue of 3,005.6 million yuan and expenditure of 2,959.73 million yuan, with a year-end balance of 85.58 million yuan [1] Group 2: Investment Allocation - The National Development and Reform Commission is managing the allocation of 700,000 million yuan in central budget investments, with 1,635 million yuan designated for central-level expenditures and 5,365 million yuan for transfers to local governments [1] - The investments are primarily directed towards eight key areas, including the construction of a modern industrial system, new urbanization, rural revitalization, regional coordinated development, and the advancement of national security systems and capabilities [1]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to January to April [1] - Tax revenue for the same period was 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points; non-tax revenue was 17,467 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.5 percentage points [1] - In May, the general public budget revenue growth rate was 0.1%, slowing by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, with tax revenue growth dropping from 1.9% to 0.6% and non-tax revenue turning negative at -2.2% [2] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure - From January to May, national general public budget expenditure was 112,953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with the growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points [1] - In May, general public budget expenditure grew by 2.6% year-on-year, slowing by 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, with significant declines in infrastructure spending, which fell by 7.7% [4] - Key areas of expenditure such as social security and employment saw a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, while education and health spending grew by 6.7% and 3.9%, respectively [4] Group 3: Economic Analysis - The slowdown in revenue is attributed to factors such as the decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), the unsustainable high growth of non-tax revenue, and weakened land transfer income [1] - The analysis indicates that the increase in value-added tax revenue reflects a trend of economic recovery, supported by robust growth in the equipment manufacturing sector [2] - The government is expected to accelerate bond issuance to support fiscal expenditure, especially in light of the revenue slowdown and strong expenditure performance in the first four months [5]

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 5 月财政收入增速小幅回踩。公共财政收入同比、税收收入同比分别回落至 0.1% （前值 1.9% ）、 0.6% （前值 1.9% ），但 仍位于正值区间，强于一季度表现。非税收入同比 -2.2% ，为 2024 年以来首次转负。应与财政收入对非税收入的依赖有所减轻有关， 今年预算对非税收入增长目标有明显下调 （目标增速 -14.2% ）。前 5 个月公共财政收入累计同比 -0.3% ，距离年初目标差值（ 0.37 个百分点）较前期有所收窄。 第二， 分税种来看，国内增值税表现较好，累计同比 2.4% ，或与工业企业利润增速好转有关；个人所得税表现较好，累计同比涨幅 扩大至 8.2% （去年年度为 -1.7% ），与低基数、汇算清缴、二手房交易较为活跃、股市年内表现较好背景下部分股东减持等因素有 关。消费税表现中性，和今年较高的社零增速有一定直观上的反差，主要是消费税中烟酒车油等占比较高，其中前两者增速不快；汽车 零售辆增速较快，但由于降价，零售额增速并不快。税收收入的主要拖累项一是外贸环节相关税种， ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure data for the first five months of the year indicate a mixed performance, with revenue slightly declining while expenditure shows growth, reflecting a stable fiscal environment despite challenges in revenue generation [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue reached 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline rate narrowing compared to the previous month [2][4]. - General public budget expenditure totaled 112,953 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, although the growth rate has slightly decreased [2][4]. - In May alone, public fiscal revenue grew by 0.13% year-on-year, while public fiscal expenditure increased by 2.63%, both showing a certain degree of slowdown [4]. Group 2: Deficit and Budget Execution - The actual deficit from January to May reached 16,330 billion yuan, the highest in five years, compared to 11,447 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 4,883 billion yuan [5]. - The broad deficit, considering government funds, amounted to 32,972 billion yuan, up from 29,380 billion yuan last year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3,592 billion yuan [5]. - By the end of May, public fiscal revenue completed 43.9% of the annual budget, a 0.6 percentage point increase from last year, while public fiscal expenditure accounted for 38.0% of the budget, remaining stable compared to last year [6]. Group 3: Revenue Structure - Non-tax revenue showed a cumulative growth of 6.2%, although the growth rate has declined, while tax revenue decreased by 1.6%, with the decline rate narrowing [9]. - In May, tax revenue increased by 0.6% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue fell by 2.2% [9]. - Key tax categories showed varied trends, with corporate income tax declining by 2.5% year-on-year but at a reduced rate, while value-added tax increased by 2.4%, indicating improvement in corporate operations [9]. Group 4: Government Spending - Central government spending has shown significant growth, with May's expenditure rising by 11.04% year-on-year, outpacing local government spending growth of 10.1% [12]. - Expenditure in key areas such as science and technology grew by 20.15%, while cultural, tourism, and sports spending increased by 16.2% [12]. - Infrastructure spending in areas like energy conservation and environmental protection grew by 4.6%, although other sectors like transportation and rural affairs saw declines [12]. Group 5: Government Fund Budget - National government fund budget expenditure increased significantly, with a total of 32,125 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16% [16]. - Government fund budget revenue reached 15,483 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, with local government fund income declining by 8.3% [16]. - Central government fund budget expenditure surged by 64.4%, while local government fund expenditure grew by 14.9% [16].