宏观日报 | 2025-12-18 关注上游价格波动，中游开工低位 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）国家发展改革委等部门发布《煤炭清洁高效利用重点领域标杆水平和基准水平（2025年版）》。其中 提到，鼓励和引导行业企业结合实际和长远发展，对项目实施改造升级。对新建煤炭开发利用项目和有条件的存 量项目，推动清洁高效利用水平应提尽提，力争达到标杆水平。对清洁高效利用水平低于现有基准水平的存量项 目，引导企业有序开展煤炭清洁高效利用改造，加快推动企业减污降碳，坚决依法依规淘汰落后产能、落后工艺。 服务行业：1）财政部发布2025年1—11月财政收支情况，1—11月，印花税4044亿元，同比增长27%。其中，证券 交易印花税1855亿元，同比增长70.7%。据财政部此前发布的数据，2025年1—10月证券交易印花税收入为1629亿 元，这意味着今年11月证券交易印花税为226亿元，相较于10月的181亿元环比增长24.86%。此外，2024年11月证 券交易印花税为221亿元，经计算，今年11月证券交易印花税同比微增2.26%。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 20 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - This year from January to November, China's national fiscal revenue reached 20.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with the same growth rate as the first 10 months. National tax revenue was 16.48 trillion yuan, up 1.8%, and securities trading stamp duty revenue was 185.5 billion yuan, a 70.7% increase [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its "2025 Coal Report" that global coal demand in 2025 increased by 0.5% to a record 8.85 billion tons, but demand has entered a plateau and is expected to start a "very slow and gradual" decline by the end of this decade [2]. - On Wednesday, the main platinum futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit again, and the main palladium futures contract hit the daily limit for the first time. Lithium carbonate futures soared nearly 8%, approaching the 110,000 yuan/ton mark, reaching a high in over a year [2]. - Brazil's December soybean export volume is expected to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons. Corn exports are expected to be 6.35 million tons, up from 6.3 million tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 2 million tons, up from 1.83 million tons [3]. - Indonesia's government proposed a nickel ore production target of about 250 million tons in the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB), a significant decrease from the 379 million tons set in the 2025 RKAB, aiming to prevent further nickel price declines [3]. 2. Sector Performance Key Focus - Urea, lithium carbonate, platinum, coking coal, and plastics [4] Night Session Performance - Non-metallic building materials rose 2.51%, precious metals 33.03%, oilseeds and oils 8.65%, soft commodities 3.32%, non-ferrous metals 23.75%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 10.78%, energy 2.58%, chemicals 10.49%, grains 1.31%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.60% [4] 3. Sector Positions - The document provides a chart of the five - day position changes in commodity futures sectors, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, steel, and minerals, Wind non - ferrous metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non - metallic building materials [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 1.19 | - 0.47 | 15.47 | | | SSE 50 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 11.43 | | | CSI 300 | 1.83 | 1.18 | 16.39 | | | CSI 500 | 1.95 | 1.51 | 24.66 | | | S&P 500 | - 1.16 | - 1.86 | 14.28 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.92 | - 1.51 | 26.96 | | | German DAX | - 0.02 | 0.99 | 20.91 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.26 | - 1.48 | 24.11 | | | UK FTSE 100 | 0.92 | 0.55 | 19.59 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.10 | 0.06 | - 0.84 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.06 | 0.09 | - 0.66 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.01 | 0.05 | - 0.52 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | - 3.25 | - 1.70 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 3.00 | - 2.52 | - 20.84 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.80 | 2.82 | 65.28 | | | LME Copper | 1.30 | 5.07 | 33.72 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 3.02 | 8.55 | 45.23 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.18 | - 1.05 | - 9.29 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 0.80 | - 5.01 | [6] 5. Stock Market Risk Appetite and Major Commodity Trends - The document presents charts of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, gold - oil ratio, copper - gold ratio, Wind All - A (ex - finance, oil, and petrochemicals) and its risk premium, risk premiums of SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500, and CBOT soybean and corn futures prices [7]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 本报记者 韩 昱 12月17日，财政部公布了今年1月份至11月份财政收支情况。1月份至11月份，全国一般公共预算收入 20.05万亿元，同比增长0.8%。 税收收入继续增长。1月份至11月份，全国税收收入16.48万亿元，同比增长1.8%，增幅比1月份至10月 份提高0.1个百分点。 主要税收收入项目中，1月份至11月份，国内增值税、国内消费税分别同比增长3.9%、2.5%，继续保持 平稳增长；企业所得税同比增长1.7%；个人所得税同比增长11.5%，增幅与1月份至10月份持平。 责任编辑：高佳 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 本报记者 韩 昱 12月17日，财政部公布了今年1月份至11月份财政收支情况。1月份至11月份，全国一般公共预算收入 20.05万亿元，同比增长0.8%。 税收收入继续增长。1月份至11月份，全国税收收入16.48万亿元，同比增长1.8%，增幅比1月份至10月 份提高0.1个百分点。 主要税收收入项目中，1月份至11月份，国内增值税、国内消费税分别同比增长3.9%、2.5 ...

人民财讯12月17日电，财政部数据显示，1—11月，印花税4044亿元，同比增长27%。其中，证券交易 印花税1855亿元，同比增长70.7%。 ...

#数据 中国财政部：1—11月，全国一般公共预算收入200516亿元，同比增长0.8%。其中，全国税收收入164814亿元，同比增长1.8%；非税收入35702亿元，同比下降3.7%。印花税4044亿元，同比增长27%。其中，证券交易印花税1855亿元，同比增长70.7%。国有土地使用权出让收入29119亿元，同比下降10.7%。1—11月，全国一般公共预算支出248538亿元，同比增长1.4%。社会保障和就业支出40721亿元，同比增长8.1%。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#数据 财政部：1—10月，全国一般公共预算收入186490亿元，同比增0.8%。其中，全国税收收入153364亿元，同比增长1.7%；非税收入33126亿元，同比下降3.1%。印花税3781亿元，同比增长29.5%。其中，证券交易印花税1629亿元，同比增长88.1%。国有土地使用权出让收入24982亿元，同比下降7.4%。 https://t.co/rItRz9KpgK ...

虽然低基数效应在一定程度上放大了同比增速，但剔除基数影响后，2025年前10个月证券交易印花税较 2023年同期的1616亿元，仍有增长，反映真实交易热度回升。 资本市场的活跃还产生了显著的联动效应，带动相关税种同步增长。"10月单月个人所得税表现相对突 出，同比增长27.3%。"广发证券宏观分析师吴棋滢表示，这与资本市场表现活跃、财富效应有所增加 有关。今年以来，与资本市场相关的行业和税种收入均增长较快，尤其是A股市场股权转让以及上市公 司分红踊跃，股权转让、限售股转让、利息股息红利所得个人所得税随之走高，进而拉动个人所得税同 比增长。 今年以来，A股市场呈现回稳向好、量价齐升的良好态势。持续回暖的行情吸引大量资金入场，据Wind 数据统计，前10个月A股市场累计成交额达338.6万亿元，同比增长87.7%，与证券交易印花税88.1%的 增速高度吻合，是推动其增长最直接的原因。 市场活跃度的提升还体现在多项核心指标的同步向好。投资者信心持续回升，参与热情高涨，前10个月 A股新增开户数达到2245.88万户，同比增长10.6%，为市场带来了增量资金；投资者风险偏好回升，愿 意通过融资加大投入，截至10月末， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth in stamp duty revenue from securities transactions, indicating a revitalization of the capital market and increased investor confidence [1][2][3] - In the first ten months of the year, the national stamp duty revenue reached 378.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty contributing 162.9 billion yuan, up 88.1% [1] - The A-share market showed a positive trend with a total trading volume of 338.6 trillion yuan, reflecting an 87.7% year-on-year increase, closely aligning with the growth rate of securities transaction stamp duty [1][2] Group 2 - The increase in stamp duty revenue is supported by a series of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including coordinated efforts from the People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies [2] - The performance of listed companies has improved, with total operating income reaching 53.46 trillion yuan and net profit at 4.7 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year growth of 1.36% and 5.5% respectively [2] - The technology sector has seen a significant increase in market capitalization, with the electronic industry surpassing the banking sector, now accounting for 12.42% of the total market value, reflecting a shift in investment focus [2][3]

Core Insights - The significant increase in securities transaction stamp duty reflects a resurgence of investor confidence and market activity, with a 29.5% year-on-year growth in total stamp duty revenue and an 88.1% increase in securities transaction stamp duty revenue [1] - The A-share market has shown a positive trend with a total trading volume of 338.6 trillion yuan, marking an 87.7% year-on-year increase, which aligns closely with the growth in securities transaction stamp duty [1][2] Group 1: Market Activity and Investor Confidence - The number of new A-share accounts opened in the first ten months reached 22.46 million, a 10.6% year-on-year increase, indicating a rise in market participation and inflow of new capital [2] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending approached 2.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 35% increase since the beginning of the year, signaling a shift from stock-based trading to capital-driven growth [2] Group 2: Policy Support and Market Stability - A series of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market have been implemented, including coordinated efforts from the People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies to support market expectations and liquidity [2] - The involvement of long-term capital from various institutions, including the National Social Security Fund and banks, has contributed to market stability and increased equity allocation [2] Group 3: Corporate Performance and Sector Trends - In the first three quarters, listed companies achieved a total operating income of 5.346 trillion yuan and a net profit of 470 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.36% and 5.5%, respectively [3] - The technology sector has seen significant growth, with the total market capitalization of the electronics industry surpassing that of the banking sector, now accounting for 12.42% of the total market [3] Group 4: Tax Revenue and Economic Impact - The active capital market has led to a notable increase in personal income tax, which grew by 27.3% year-on-year in October, driven by the wealth effect from the capital market [3] - The growth in securities transaction stamp duty and related tax revenues indicates a broader economic impact, with increased activity in stock transfers and dividends contributing to higher tax collections [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is planning to enhance the resilience and stability of the capital market, focusing on improving regulatory effectiveness and attracting higher-quality listings [4]

虽然低基数效应在一定程度上放大了同比增速，但剔除基数影响后，2025年前10个月证券交易印花税较 2023年同期的1616亿元，仍有增长，反映真实交易热度回升。 "证券交易印花税是基于证券交易金额征收，直接与A股成交额挂钩，放量增长的成交量直接拉动证券 交易印花税大幅增长。"南开大学金融学教授田利辉分析。 今年以来，A股市场呈现回稳向好、量价齐升的良好态势。持续回暖的行情吸引大量资金入场，据Wind 数据统计，前10个月A股市场累计成交额达338.6万亿元，同比增长87.7%，与证券交易印花税88.1%的 增速高度吻合，是推动其增长最直接的原因。 市场活跃度的提升还体现在多项核心指标的同步向好。投资者信心持续回升，参与热情高涨，前10个月 A股新增开户数达到2245.88万户，同比增长10.6%，为市场带来了增量资金；投资者风险偏好回升，愿 意通过融资加大投入，截至10月末，A股两融余额逼近2.5万亿元，较年初增长35%，市场从存量博弈转 向增量资金驱动。 资本市场的向好表现与证券交易印花税的大幅增长，背后离不开稳市场、稳预期的一揽子金融政策支 持。今年5月，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、中国证监会等部门协同发 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first ten months of 2025, indicating a slight growth in revenue and a more significant increase in expenditure [1][2] - National general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [1] - National general public budget expenditure amounted to 22.58 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] Group 2 - Major tax revenue items showed significant growth, with stamp duty revenue at 378.1 billion yuan, up 29.5%, and securities transaction stamp duty at 162.9 billion yuan, up 88.1% [1] - In October, the national general public budget revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [1] - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing and modern services demonstrated strong tax revenue performance, with computer communication equipment manufacturing tax revenue growing by 12.7% [1] Group 3 - Expenditure in key areas was prioritized, with social security and employment spending increasing by 9.3%, education spending by 4.7%, and health spending by 2.4% [2] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 2.8% to 3.45 trillion yuan, while expenditure increased by 15.4% to 8.09 trillion yuan [2] - A total of 4.54 trillion yuan was spent from various bond funds, including local government special bonds and central financial institution special bonds [2]