Group 1: Economic Overview - The Chinese economy is showing steady growth and continues to play a major role as a driver of global economic growth, despite facing challenges from geopolitical tensions and technological changes [7][8]. - China's GDP for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with a third-quarter growth rate of 4.8%, indicating resilience amid external pressures and internal transitions [13]. - The recent CPI data shows a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% in October, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1%, reflecting low but improving price levels [6][14]. Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Finance will continue to advance the new local government debt limit for 2026 to support key projects, with an increase of 1,000 billion yuan compared to the previous year [8][9]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has revised the Corporate Governance Code for listed companies, effective January 1, 2026, focusing on enhancing the supervision of directors and senior management, and improving incentive mechanisms [9][10]. - The revisions aim to strengthen regulatory constraints on key stakeholders in listed companies, transitioning governance from mere compliance to effective performance enhancement [10][11]. Group 3: International Relations - Recent communications between Chinese and U.S. officials indicate a mutual desire to resolve trade differences through dialogue, which could positively impact bilateral economic relations and market sentiment [11][12].

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has seen a slight decline of 0.18% as of October 20, 2025, with a latest price of 106.93 yuan, but has accumulated a rise of 1.68% over the past week as of October 17, 2025 [1] - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF reached 1.566 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 9.07%, and the average daily trading volume over the past week was 4.167 billion yuan [1] - The Ministry of Finance announced measures to support government bond market making and enhance liquidity in the secondary market, indicating a proactive approach to manage the yield curve [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities reported that the fixed income market indicators show a balanced outlook with half of the 49 high-frequency indicators signaling positive trends, despite some negative signals from bill financing [2] - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera is 17.291 billion yuan, closely tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange's 30-year government bond index [3]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support local fiscal capacity and address outstanding debts[3] - The local government general debt limit for 2024 is set at 17.3 trillion yuan, with a special debt limit of 29.5 trillion yuan, and an additional 600 billion yuan for debt replacement over three years[3] - The new 500 billion yuan debt limit is expected to be issued quickly, potentially by the end of the year, to support infrastructure projects and debt resolution[5] Group 2: Economic Impact - The issuance of the 500 billion yuan debt is projected to stimulate social financing and improve liquidity in the market[5] - The advance allocation of 2026 local government debt limits allows for 31.2 trillion yuan in total, supporting major strategic projects and addressing hidden debts[6] - The fiscal deposits increased by 1.37 trillion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, indicating accelerated fiscal spending compared to 724.8 billion yuan in the same period of 2024[7] Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is currently experiencing a "weak stock, strong bond" dynamic due to external disturbances and profit-taking after significant stock gains[2] - The ongoing fiscal policies are expected to enhance market stability, especially around the time of the 20th Central Committee meeting[8] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and major project commencements not meeting expectations[9]

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - The fiscal revenue for the first three quarters reached 16.39 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, with a notable increase in the third quarter of 2.5% [1][2] - Tax revenue, as the main component of fiscal income, grew by 0.7% year-on-year, with domestic value-added tax increasing by 3.6%, and corporate income tax rising by 0.8% [2] - Total fiscal expenditure for the first three quarters was 20.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with significant growth in social security and employment (10%), education (5.4%), and environmental protection (8.8%) [2][3] Government Debt and Project Funding - The Ministry of Finance will continue to advance the new local government debt limit for 2026 to support key projects, with a recent allocation of 500 billion yuan from the existing debt limit [1][3] - The new debt limit aims to facilitate early issuance and usage, ensuring that local governments can meet their funding needs for significant projects in the first quarter of 2026 [3] - The recent allocation of 500 billion yuan is 100 billion yuan more than the previous year, aimed at enhancing local government financial capacity and addressing existing debts [3] Policy Adjustments for Consumer Goods - The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with customs and tax authorities, announced adjustments to the Hainan duty-free shopping policy, focusing on expanding consumer demand and diversifying product offerings [4] - The revised policy includes 47 categories of duty-free goods, enhancing the shopping experience for travelers and allowing local residents to purchase certain items without restrictions [4] - The adjustments are expected to stimulate consumption and provide new opportunities for economic growth in Hainan [4]

中新社北京10月17日电（记者赵建华）中国财政部预算司一级巡视员、政府债务研究和评估中心主任李 大伟17日在北京介绍，今年将继续提前下达2026年新增地方政府债务限额，保障重点领域重大项目资金 需求，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头。 近年来，根据全国人大常委会授权，经国务院同意，财政部每年第四季度在当年新增地方政府债务限额 的60%以内，提前下达下一年度新增地方政府债务限额。李大伟表示，从地方实践看，这一做法既有利 于加快新增债券发行使用，保障重点项目建设进度；也有利于推动政府债券市场平稳运行，增强地方预 算编制的完整性。 谈及地方政府债务结存限额时，李大伟表示，近年来，在全国人大批准的地方政府法定债务限额内，经 国务院同意，财政部适时安排一定规模的地方政府债务结存限额，用于支持地方化解存量政府投资项目 债务、消化政府拖欠企业账款等。 他说，近期，中央财政从地方政府债务结存限额中安排5000亿元（人民币，下同）下达地方，规模较上 年增加1000亿元。5000亿元除用于补充地方政府综合财力，支持地方化解存量政府投资项目债务、消化 政府拖欠企业账款外，还安排额度用于经济大省符合条件的项目建设，精准支持扩大有效投资，更好 ...

新华社北京10月17日电（记者刘开雄、申铖）记者17日从财政部获悉，财政部将继续提前下达2026 年新增地方政府债务限额。 李大伟介绍，今年的5000亿元除用于补充地方政府综合财力，支持地方化解存量政府投资项目债 务、消化政府拖欠企业账款外，还安排额度用于经济大省符合条件的项目建设，精准支持扩大有效投 资，更好发挥经济大省挑大梁作用。 "目前，各地正在抓紧履行有关程序，力争早发行、早使用、早见效。这部分结存限额的使用，有 助于巩固经济回升向好态势，有力支持地方完成今年经济社会发展目标任务。"李大伟说。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:赵文涵】 "提前下达的限额重点支持党中央、国务院确定的重大战略、重点项目。"李大伟表示，提前下达的 限额除用于符合条件的项目建设外，还继续支持各地按规定化解存量隐性债务和解决政府拖欠企业账 款，推动地方财政平稳运行。 同时，近期，中央财政从地方政府债务结存限额中安排5000亿元下达地方。 当日在财政部举行的2025年前三季度财政收支情况新闻发布会上，财政部预算司一级巡视员、政府 债务研究和评估中心主任李大伟表示，在工作进度上抓紧履行有关程序，尽早下达限额，便于各地做好 与2026年预算编制 ...

财政部预算司一级巡视员、政府债务研究和评估中心主任李大伟表示，今年，财政部将继续提前下达 2026年新增地方政府债务限额。主要有三方面考虑：一是在工作进度上抓紧履行有关程序，尽快下达限 额；二是项目安排上，提前下达的限额重点支持党中央、国务院确定的重大战略项目；三是在使用方向 上，提前下达的限额除用于符合条件的项目建设外，还继续支持各地按规定化解存量隐性债务和解决政 府拖欠企业账款，推动地方财政平稳运行。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the fourth quarter is traditionally a high-frequency window for fiscal policy to intensify, especially under weak domestic demand conditions, where the pressure to meet annual economic targets becomes more pronounced [2][8][10] - The cumulative GDP growth for the first three quarters is projected to exceed the annual target, suggesting that the pressure to implement large-scale counter-cyclical policies in the fourth quarter is lower than in previous years [10][11] - The report indicates that even if the economic growth continues to moderate in the fourth quarter, as long as it does not deviate significantly from the central level, the growth rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range [11][18] Group 2 - The establishment of 500 billion new policy financial tools at the end of the third quarter is noted as a significant measure to support project initiation in the fourth quarter, which could leverage local matching investments and potentially create a multiplier effect of around one trillion [3][11] - The report suggests that the reliance on large-scale additional stimulus is decreasing, indicating that the fiscal policy's focus may shift towards consolidating the economic fundamentals rather than introducing substantial new measures [11][18] - The report emphasizes that the short-term market dynamics are likely to be driven more by risk appetite and market microstructure rather than significant policy changes, with a notable recovery in market sentiment observed [4][14][18] Group 3 - The report discusses the potential for emotional recovery and risk preference resonance in the market, suggesting that the current low sentiment levels may lead to a phase of recovery, although this is subject to external shocks or internal sentiment weakening [4][14] - It is noted that the market's microstructure is currently similar to that of April, with sentiment indicators at a two-year low, reflecting a comprehensive pricing of negative factors [14][18] - The report concludes that while there is some room for fiscal policy intervention, the urgency is not as pronounced as in previous years, and the market's mid-term expectations have shifted significantly compared to earlier in the year [18]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Short-term geopolitical conflicts have escalated again, leading to a rise in global risk aversion. The domestic market sentiment is improving due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased easing expectations. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short-term upward macro-driving force [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index is oscillating as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, increasing global risk aversion. Domestically, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance will pre - issue part of the 2026 local government debt quota and take measures to resolve implicit debt. Short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased, and domestic easing expectations have increased, leading to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; the commodity sector shows different trends: black is short - term oscillating, short - term cautious observation; non - ferrous is short - term oscillating strongly, short - term cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, cautious observation; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, cautious long positions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, liquor, and banking sectors. Fundamentally, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected, and external demand still strongly drives the economy. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance's policies and the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations have led to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to relevant events, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volume. There are rumors of policy intensification. Fundamentally, demand is still weak, but there are differences among varieties. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons month - on - month, while rebar decreased by 40,000 tons. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar reached a three - year high. Supply - wise, hot - rolled coil production increased by 109,000 tons month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to continue rising. The steel market is likely to oscillate in a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore spot prices rebounded slightly last Friday, and the futures price continued to oscillate. Daily iron - water production rose above 2.4 million tons again last week, but the market expects limited upward space under low - profit conditions. Supply - wise, global iron ore shipments decreased by 8 million tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 720,000 tons. The news of a smelter addition at Simandou pushed up ore prices, but Rio Tinto's focus is on the first - batch shipments, so the event may not last long. Iron ore port inventories continued to rise slightly. Iron ore prices should be treated with a range - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly last Friday. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Manganese ore spot prices are firm. UMK's October 2025 manganese ore quotation to China shows a price reduction. Inner Mongolia's factory production is stable, with new high - silicon ignition this month and new capacity in some common - silicon factories in October. Ningxia's production is stable, some southern factories are in losses, and Yunnan and Guangxi's production changes little. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon - iron profits are compressed, electricity - cost support exists, and manufacturers' inventory pressure is acceptable, so the production reduction intention is weak, and the production decline space is limited. Market games continue [6][7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main soda - ash contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, supply increased week - on - week, and the supply pressure exists in the new - capacity release cycle, with an unchanged oversupply pattern. New devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and high supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, mainly driven by rigid demand, but downstream demand support is weak, and the terminal demand support has not changed significantly, with limited demand growth space. The decline in coal prices also had a negative impact. Soda ash still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. A medium - to - long - term bearish view is recommended, but beware of short - term bullish impacts from policies and news and manage positions well [7]. - **Glass**: The main glass contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, glass production was stable, with little week - on - week change. Although it is the peak season, demand growth is limited. The overall glass supply is stable, and demand is difficult to increase significantly. The overall fundamental pattern is loose, but policy sentiment fluctuates. Short - term range oscillation is expected [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroscopically, the US non - farm annual benchmark was significantly revised downward, and the CPI data was in line with expectations but still high. The market believes that inflation not exceeding expectations has no impact on the Fed's later interest - rate cuts, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to rise, the US dollar declines slightly, and the non - ferrous sector rises. Technically, the LME copper price shows a bullish trend. However, the upward space is cautiously viewed as the global economy is still slowing, and domestic demand is weakening marginally [9]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose significantly last Friday. Besides the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rise in copper prices, the decline in social inventory, the market's belief in the arrival of the inventory inflection point and subsequent de - stocking, and the significant increase in LME aluminum warehouse withdrawal applications for two consecutive days all boosted aluminum prices. Technically, the pressure level is at 21,300 yuan/ton. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and although de - stocking is expected later, the speed and amplitude are slow [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants are short of raw materials, leading to rising production costs. Additionally, it is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost - side support, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upward space is limited due to weak demand [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped by 20.63% to 28.48%, a new low this year, mainly affected by the maintenance of some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and the tightness of the ore end. However, the actual impact is expected to be short - term, and the operating rate will recover after maintenance. With the issuance of mining licenses, the ore end will become looser, and a large amount of Burmese tin ore will be produced after November. On the demand side, terminal demand is still weak. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand, and in the emerging field of photovoltaics, the pre - installation has overdrawn later - stage installation demand, with the new photovoltaic installation increasing marginally weaker in the past two months, low photovoltaic glass operating rate, and declining photovoltaic solder strip operating rate. The year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicles has also declined. Although the operating rate has dropped significantly, the inventory increased by 108 tons to 9,389 tons this week. As tin prices rise again, downstream procurement slows down, only maintaining rigid - demand procurement. In summary, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, supported by maintenance and peak - season expectations, and boosted by the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but the upward space is still under pressure [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of September 11, the weekly lithium - carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.8% month - on - month increase, and the weekly operating rate was 49.19%. The latest CIF price of Australian spodumene concentrate is 800 US dollars/ton, a 5.9% week - on - week decline. A meeting on the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine by Yichun CATL was held last week, but the resumption time is undetermined. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, the peak - season demand is strong, social inventory is slightly de - stocking, and smelter inventory is transferred downstream. The fundamentals are improving marginally, but supply - side pressure still exists. The market is expected to oscillate and stabilize, with limited downward space [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest weekly production is 96,229 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. The number of open furnaces is 311, with an increase of 7 in Xinjiang and no change in other regions. The latest social inventory is 539,000 tons, remaining at a high level. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory is 249,900 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. Although the weekly production is at a high level, no inventory accumulation occurred during the wet season. Benefiting from the anti - involution policy, it follows polysilicon in the short term. The China Silicon Industry Conference was held in Baotou last week, and policy disturbances should be noted [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are rising slightly. The total output of silicon - wafer sample enterprises in August was 53.6 GW, and the operating rate was 57.44%, showing an increase. The latest weekly inventory is 278,500 tons, with a marginal increase of 250 tons. The latest warehouse receipts are 7,820 lots, a week - on - week increase of 950 lots. There were news of stockpiling and capacity reduction for polysilicon last week, with strong short - term policy expectations. Polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is advisable to go long on dips [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: After the release of OPEC and IEA reports, there is an expectation of a slight increase in OPEC production in the long term, and the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. However, short - term low - level buying in the spot window has recovered to some extent, and the near - end structure has stabilized, so the probability of a sharp short - term decline in oil prices is still low. Additionally, recent geopolitical risks are frequent, and the supply of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may face channel problems later, providing support at the key lower level. Oil prices will continue to oscillate recently [14]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rebounded slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Wait for the rhythm of demand decline later, and the upward space will be limited. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and currently, social inventory has not shown obvious de - stocking, and factory inventory has only slightly decreased. Profits have recovered recently, and the operating rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When asphalt inventory continues to de - stock limitedly, pay attention to the extent of following the rise of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: The main contract continues to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector. The slight positive impact from the low previous operating rate and increased maintenance plans has been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has slightly decreased to 233 US dollars recently, the PX outer - market price remains at 832 US dollars, the short - term processing fee of PTA is significantly squeezed, and PX is still in a tight situation. It will oscillate recently, waiting for the change of PTA devices later [15]. - **PTA**: The downstream operating rate has recovered to 91.6%, but the terminal operating rate recovery is limited, the loom operating rate has not increased significantly, remaining at 66%, and downstream inventory continues to increase slightly. The upward space for PTA prices is limited. However, the impact of low processing fees is gradually emerging, with some devices increasing maintenance plans, and other maintenance devices may postpone restarting. The basis has basically remained at 01 - 60 recently, providing support below. When crude - oil prices are stable in the short term, PTA is difficult to have a trending market and will mainly oscillate [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has slightly decreased to 459,000 tons. The Yulong device may be put into operation soon, and the market has fully priced in this. The main - contract price has declined significantly. In addition, downstream operating rates are still restricted by low terminal orders, export orders are still low, and the space for further Christmas - order issuance is limited. Coupled with the gradual return of imports to normal levels, ethylene glycol is likely to continue to oscillate weakly recently [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector, and the price declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, the short - fiber operating rate has rebounded slightly, and short - fiber inventory has accumulated to a limited extent. Further de - stocking depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in the operating rate. Currently, the subsequent upward space may be limited. Short - fiber can be shorted on rallies in the medium term following the polyester end [17]. - **Methanol**: The supply of inland devices is still increasing, and the current import arrivals remain high. Downstream device maintenance has led to weakening demand, and the overall inventory continues to rise, with high port pressure and inventory reaching a record high. However, port MTO devices plan to restart, the weekly import arrivals are expected to decrease, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season in the inland region is coming, providing support for methanol prices. It will oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [17]. - **PP**: Device production has decreased due to maintenance in the short term, downstream operating rates have increased, order situations have improved, and raw - material inventory has started to rise, indicating the start of peak - season stocking. However, seasonal supply increases and new - capacity releases still keep the supply loose, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Device restarts have increased supply, the operating rate of agricultural films has increased slowly, and recent orders have increased rapidly, showing improvement. The absolute inventory value is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. During the macro - policy vacuum period, market sentiment has declined, and oil prices have fallen. Plastics are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Urea**: Recently, some devices are planned to restart at the end of the month, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. Currently, industrial demand is still weak and has recovered slowly after the parade; agricultural demand is sporadic, and the support of port - collection demand for prices is limited, and the emotional boost from Indian tenders is insufficient. If the price continues to fall and breaks the previous low, it may stimulate downstream replenishment. In the short term, the market depends on the release of rigid demand. After entering October, the contradiction between seasonal demand weakening and supply loosening will intensify. The expectation of tightened export policies has been mostly digested by the market. Coupled with new - capacity releases, urea prices will mainly decline at a low level in the medium - to - long - term, but unexpected macro - policy adjustments may provide low - level support or even a slight rebound [18][19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: In the September USDA supply - and - demand report, the US soybean yield was lowered, but the estimate was still slightly higher than expected, and the harvest area increased. The USDA raised the estimated ending inventory, and the report had a bearish impact. However, the market has not relaxed its concern about the pressure on yield caused by diseases and high temperatures at the end of the growing season. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives this week, and CBOT soybeans are stable and strong [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term domestic supply - and - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Oil mills have high soybean arrivals, high operating rates, and are urging提货. On the one hand, imported soybeans are continuously put into storage, and on the other hand, downstream inventories are high due to the previous fast - paced procurement, and the channel inventory formed by cross - regional shipping is gradually emerging, increasing market supply pressure. Although the soybean - meal market valuation is low, the short - term risk appetite of long - position holders is not high, and US soybeans lack directional guidance. It is expected that the supply - and - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and if the US soybean export expectation improves or the yield is further lowered, the bullish US soybean market is expected to raise the oscillation price center of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal still has high - inventory circulation pressure in the short term, but the rapeseed inventory is low, and the far - month purchase volume is small. If the policy expectation remains unchanged, there is still a basis for upward

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Ministry of Finance has pre - allocated part of the new local government debt quota for 2026, with a theoretical scale of 3.12 trillion yuan. There is no clear evidence that the debt - resolution quota for 2026 will be issued in advance in 2025 [3]. - The issuance and net financing of local bonds in the current period increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, and it is expected that the issuance and net financing of local bonds in the next period will decrease significantly [3]. - The issuance of new local bonds in the current period accelerated. The current cumulative issuance progress is higher than that of the same period in 2024 but lower than that of the same period in 2023 [3]. - The scale of local bonds planned to be issued in September 2025 is 726.5 billion yuan, of which new special bonds are 440.1 billion yuan [3]. - In the current period, 114.4 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, 20 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued, and 6.2 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued [3]. - In the current period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds widened, and the weekly turnover rate increased month - on - month. Currently, the cost - performance of exploring the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds is not high [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Period's Local Bond Issuance Volume Increased, and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local bonds in the current period (September 8 - 14, 2025) was 301.671 billion yuan/192.779 billion yuan (93.391 billion yuan/36.709 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing in the next period (September 15 - 21, 2025) is 188.519 billion yuan/30.945 billion yuan [3]. - The weighted issuance term of local bonds in the current period was 17.84 years, longer than 13.11 years in the previous period [3]. - As of September 12, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 79.4% and 77.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 82.0% and 79.2%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 72.2%/67.5% and 77.1%/71.7%, and in 2023 it was 84.6%/80.5% and 85.6%/81.6% [3]. - As of September 12, 2025, 25 regions have disclosed that the scale of local bonds planned to be issued in September 2025 is 726.5 billion yuan in total, including 440.1 billion yuan of new special bonds. In the same period last year, the issuance in the same regions was 943.2 billion yuan and 753.6 billion yuan respectively, and the national issuance in the same period last year was 1284.3 billion yuan and 1027.9 billion yuan respectively [3]. - As of September 12, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1098.6 billion yuan (114.4 billion yuan issued in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1953.4 billion yuan (20 billion yuan issued in the current period), with an issuance progress of 97.7%, and 30 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (Hunan was added in the current period); at the same time, Guizhou issued a special refinancing bond for repaying existing debts with a scale of 6.2 billion yuan in the current period [3]. 3.2 The Spreads between 10Y and 30Y Local Bonds and Treasury Bonds Widened in the Current Period, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Increased Month - on - Month - As of September 12, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 19.30BP and 17.60BP respectively, widening by 1.90BP and 2.85BP compared with September 5, 2025 (17.40BP and 14.75BP on September 5, 2025), and were at the 51.40% and 69.40% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [3]. - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds in the current period was 0.78%, up from 0.68% in the previous period on a month - on - month basis. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin were better than the national average [3]. - Taking the 10 - year local bond as the observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [3].