Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported that in 2025, China's fiscal revenue is expected to operate steadily, with nearly 90% of regions experiencing revenue growth, while key expenditures are well-supported [1][2]. Revenue Summary - In 2025, the total general public budget revenue is projected to be 21,604.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% compared to 2024 [2]. - Tax revenue is estimated at 17,636.3 billion yuan, an increase of 0.8%, while non-tax revenue is expected to decline by 11.3% to 39,682 billion yuan [2]. - Central government revenue is forecasted at 93,963 billion yuan, down 6.5%, while local government revenue is expected to rise by 2.4% to 122,082 billion yuan [2]. Expenditure Summary - The total general public budget expenditure is anticipated to be 28,739.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1% from 2024 [2]. - Central government expenditure is projected to increase by 5.7% to 43,034 billion yuan, while local government expenditure is expected to grow by 0.2% to 244,361 billion yuan [2]. Key Tax Items - Securities transaction stamp duty is expected to reach 2,035 billion yuan, a significant increase of 57.8% [3]. - Domestic value-added tax is projected at 68,947 billion yuan, growing by 3.4%, while corporate income tax is expected to be 41,304 billion yuan, up by 1% [3]. - Personal income tax is forecasted to increase by 11.5% to 16,187 billion yuan [3]. Key Expenditure Areas - Significant funding is allocated to social security and employment, education, and health sectors, with education spending at 43,417 billion yuan (up 3.2%) and health spending at 21,446 billion yuan (up 5.7%) [3]. - Expenditure on environmental protection is expected to grow by 6.1% to 5,816 billion yuan [3]. Government Fund Budget - The government fund budget revenue is projected to be 577 billion yuan, a decrease of 7%, while expenditure is expected to rise by 11.3% to 1,129 billion yuan [4]. - The increase in expenditure is primarily due to accelerated use of bond funds, with total spending on various bonds expected to reach 61,900 billion yuan, an increase of 37.6% [4]. Regional Revenue Growth - Nearly 90% of regions are expected to see revenue growth, with 27 out of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities reporting increases [5]. - The local general public budget revenue is projected to grow by 2.4%, indicating a steady recovery [5]. Childcare Subsidies - Approximately 100 billion yuan is allocated for childcare subsidies, with 90.4 billion yuan from the central government, marking a significant social welfare initiative [6]. - This subsidy program has received widespread approval and aims to support families with young children [6].

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue in December 2025 experienced a significant decline of 25.0% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from December 2024, which saw a 40.4% increase in central fiscal revenue [1][6][9]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Analysis - In December 2025, general public budget revenue decreased by 25.0% year-on-year, with tax revenue down by 11.5% and non-tax revenue down by 47.9% [6][7]. - The central general public budget revenue fell by 50.3%, while local general public budget revenue remained stable with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [6][7]. - The overall completion rate of the general public budget revenue for 2025 was 98.3%, indicating a satisfactory level despite the decline in December [9][10]. Group 2: Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue showed a pattern of being weak in the first half of 2025 but improved in the second half, with an overall annual growth of 0.8%, which was below the initial target of 3.7% [10][11]. - Specific tax categories such as stamp duty and personal income tax saw significant increases, with stamp duty growing by 24.1% and personal income tax by 11.5% [12][13]. - The growth in tax revenue was attributed to factors such as tax incentives, regulatory adjustments, and an active capital market [11][12]. Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure Insights - The fiscal expenditure in 2025 showed a weak trend, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.0% and a completion rate of 96.8% [16][17]. - The expenditure structure revealed a focus on social security, environmental protection, and health, while infrastructure spending saw negative growth in several areas [12][16]. - The divergence between revenue and expenditure created a fiscal gap of 71,350 billion yuan, which was lower than the initial budget estimate [16][22]. Group 4: Government Fund Budget Overview - The government fund budget revenue for 2025 decreased by 14.7%, with land transfer income significantly impacted [21][22]. - The government fund budget expenditure increased by 11.3%, primarily driven by special bonds and other fiscal instruments [21][22]. - The fiscal gap in the government fund budget was 55,170 billion yuan, indicating a need for adjustments in fiscal policy to stabilize the real estate market [21][22]. Group 5: 2026 Fiscal Outlook - The early fiscal situation for 2026 suggests potential improvements in tax revenue due to rising industrial indices and PPI [23]. - The land market remains weak, with a significant decline in land transfer revenue, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [23]. - The issuance of bonds in early 2026 is expected to align with proactive fiscal policies aimed at stimulating economic activity [23].

Revenue Insights - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 1.0%[5] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 7.0% year-on-year, with expenditure rising by 11.3%[5] - In December 2025, general public budget revenue dropped by 25.0% year-on-year, while expenditure decreased by 1.8%[7] Expenditure Trends - December general public budget expenditure saw a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, an improvement from the previous decline of 3.7%[27] - Expenditure in December increased by over 70% month-on-month, aligning with seasonal trends due to year-end budget execution[27] - Non-living-related expenditures, including infrastructure and cultural projects, contributed to the expenditure increase, while living-related expenditures lagged behind seasonal expectations[27] Tax Revenue Dynamics - Tax revenue in December showed a month-on-month increase of only 0.9%, significantly lower than the historical average increase of 23.9%[16] - Major tax categories, including domestic VAT and consumption tax, experienced negative growth, reflecting economic pressures[19] - The reliance on non-tax revenue increased, with its share in the general public budget revenue rising to approximately 26%[27] Future Outlook and Risks - Tax revenue is expected to have some expansion potential due to new industry drivers and improved export resilience[38] - Risks include potential underperformance of incremental policies and continued weakness in the real estate market, which could further strain local government finances[39]

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 1 日 证券研究报告 财政：12 月收支变化与 2026 年开年预期 | [Table 分析师： | 吴棋滢 | | --- | --- | | _Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260519080003 | | | SFC CE.no: BQN213 | | | 021-38003588 | | | wuqiying@gf.com.cn | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 2025 年 12 月财政收入单月变化幅度较大（同比-25.0%），我们理解基数是主要原因。2024 年"924"后为完 成预算任务"安排有关中央单位上缴一部分专项收益"，带动中央财政收入走高（2024 年 12 月同比 40.4%）， 高基数之下 2025 年同期同比只有-50.3%；地方财政收入受基数影响相对较小，与前值的同比 4.1%大致持平。 根据财政部数据，2025 年 12 月一般公共预算收入同比-25.0%（前值-0.02%）；其中税收收入同比-11.5%（前 值 2.8%）、非税收入同比-47.9%（前值-10.8%）；中央一般公共预算收 ...

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In December 2025, national general public budget revenue decreased by 25% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.02%[3] - The total revenue for the national general public budget in 2025 was 216,045 billion yuan, a decline of 1.7% from 2024[3] - The expenditure growth rate for the national general public budget in December 2025 was -1.77%, an improvement from -3.7% previously[6] Tax Revenue Insights - In December 2025, tax revenue was 11,549 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 11.5%, while the total tax revenue for 2025 grew by 0.8%[3] - Personal income tax showed a significant increase of 11.5% in 2025, indicating strong growth despite overall tax revenue challenges[4] - Non-tax revenue fell by 47.9% in December 2025, primarily due to a high base effect from 2024[3] Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - The broad fiscal budget (general public budget + government fund budget) showed a widening deficit, with December revenue growth slowing more than expenditure growth[2] - The first three accounts showed a surplus of 590 billion yuan, mainly driven by a significant increase in central state-owned capital operating budget revenue, which grew by 25.8%[11] - New policy financial tools and special bonds are expected to support economic growth in Q1 2026, particularly in fixed asset investment and consumption[2] Expenditure Focus - Social security and employment expenditures exceeded 100% of the initial budget, while agricultural and forestry expenditures lagged at 86.7%[7] - Total national general public budget expenditure for 2025 was 287,395 billion yuan, reflecting a 1% increase from 2024[6] - Central government expenditure grew by 5.7%, outpacing local government expenditure growth of 0.2%[6]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the national government fund budget revenue is projected to be 5.77 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7% compared to 2024, while the expenditure is expected to rise to 11.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.3% from 2024, indicating a focus on accelerating the use of bond funds to enhance economic growth [1] Group 1 - The total expenditure for special long-term government bonds, local government special bonds, and central financial institution capital injection special bonds is projected to be 6.19 trillion yuan in 2025, which is an increase of 1.69 trillion yuan or 37.6% compared to 2024 [1] - The increase in expenditure is aimed at enhancing economic development momentum and promoting a sustained recovery in the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing's fiscal revenue for 2025 is projected to grow steadily, outperforming the national average, with a general public budget revenue of 668.06 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1][3]. Fiscal Revenue - The general public budget revenue for Beijing in 2025 is 668.06 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.8%, closely aligning with the city's GDP growth rate of 5.4% [1][3]. - Tax revenue constitutes 86.5% of the general public budget revenue, indicating strong revenue resilience and quality [1][3]. - The growth rate of Beijing's general public budget revenue exceeds the national average and is higher than the 2024 growth rate of 3.1% [3]. Economic Context - Beijing's fiscal revenue growth is attributed to stable economic performance, with a GDP of 5.2 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 5.4%, surpassing the national growth rate by 0.4 percentage points [3]. - The city ranks sixth in general public budget revenue among 31 provinces, with expectations to maintain this position in 2025 [3]. Sector Contributions - The contribution of high-tech industries, digital economy sectors, and unicorn companies to fiscal revenue has increased by 7.6%, 7.4%, and 6.7% respectively since 2020 [3]. Fiscal Expenditure - The general public budget expenditure for 2025 is projected at 840.19 billion yuan, remaining stable with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [5]. - Over 80% of the budget expenditure is allocated to improving public welfare [5]. - Government fund revenue is expected to reach 219.39 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, reversing a trend of decline [5]. Future Projections - For 2026, the general public budget revenue is anticipated to be 695 billion yuan, with a growth rate of around 4%, consistent with the 2025 expectations [5][6]. - The general public budget expenditure for 2026 is projected at 860.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [6].

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - From January to November, China's general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 164,814 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while non-tax revenue was 35,702 billion RMB, reflecting a decline of 3.7% [1] - The growth rate of general public budget revenue remained consistent with that of January to October [1] Group 2: Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax and domestic consumption tax grew by 3.9% and 2.5% respectively, indicating stable growth [1] - Corporate income tax increased by 1.7%, while personal income tax saw a significant rise of 11.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as in the previous months [1] - Sectors such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed strong tax performance, with computer and communication equipment manufacturing tax revenue up by 14.1%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing tax revenue up by 7.9% [1] Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure reached 248,538 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [2] - Key areas of expenditure included social security and employment (up 8.1%), education (up 4.4%), health (up 4.7%), and science and technology (up 7.9%) [2] - Government fund budget revenue was 40.3 billion RMB, down 4.9%, while government fund budget expenditure was 92.1 billion RMB, up 13.7% [2] Group 4: Debt and Funding - The increase in expenditure was attributed to accelerated use of bond funds, with local government special bonds and other financial instruments contributing to a total expenditure of 51.5 billion RMB [2]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In the first 11 months of 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was +0.8%, unchanged from the previous value[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was +1.4%, down from +2.0%[1] - Government fund budget revenue saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of -4.9%, compared to -2.8% previously[1] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by +13.7%, down from +15.4%[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In November, tax revenue showed a year-on-year decline of -0.02%, with a significant drop in central government revenue by -4.23% and an increase in local government revenue by +4.05%[3] - The four major tax categories experienced a decline in growth rates, with individual income tax growth at +11.43%, consumption tax at +3.31%, and domestic VAT at +3.31%[4] - Corporate income tax growth turned negative, dropping by 12.49 percentage points, likely due to a slowdown in the cleanup of irregular tax subsidies[4] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue in November showed a year-on-year decline of -15.8%, an improvement from -18.4% in the previous month[24] - Government fund budget expenditure recorded a year-on-year growth of +2.8%, a significant recovery from -38.2%[25] - The cumulative progress of government fund budget revenue for the first 11 months was 64.4%, below the five-year average of 71.5%[25] Infrastructure and Debt Management - The issuance of new local special bonds reached 4.46 trillion yuan, with a completion rate of 96.9% against the annual plan[34] - The acceleration of fiscal spending in November was evident, particularly in infrastructure and employment-related expenditures, which improved significantly[15] - The overall fiscal deposit decline in November indicates a faster allocation of fiscal funds to projects, supporting infrastructure investment stability[15]

Summary of Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure (January to October 2025) Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for the first ten months of 2025 shows a slight increase, while non-tax revenue has declined, indicating mixed fiscal health. [1][2] Group 1: Public Budget Revenue - Total public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 153,364 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1] - Non-tax revenue was 33,126 billion yuan, showing a decline of 3.1% year-on-year [1] - Central government public budget revenue was 81,856 billion yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year [1] - Local government public budget revenue was 104,634 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Public Budget Expenditure - Total public budget expenditure reached 225,825 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [1] - Central government public budget expenditure was 34,727 billion yuan, increasing by 6.3% year-on-year [1] - Local government public budget expenditure was 191,098 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [1] Group 3: Government Fund Budget Revenue - Government fund budget revenue totaled 34,473 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year [2] - Central government fund budget revenue was 3,618 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year [2] - Local government fund budget revenue was 30,855 billion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year, with land use rights transfer revenue at 24,982 billion yuan, decreasing by 7.4% year-on-year [2] Group 4: Government Fund Budget Expenditure - Government fund budget expenditure reached 80,892 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 15.4% [2] - Central government fund budget expenditure was 8,564 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2 times [2] - Local government fund budget expenditure was 72,328 billion yuan, up 7.3% year-on-year, with related expenditures for land use rights transfer at 33,752 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [2]