宏观经济点评 证券研究报告 2025年08月22 日 董利 分析师 Email:dongli@lczg.com 证书:S1320525070001 陈国文 分析师 Email:chenguowen@lczg.com 证书:S1320524070001 投资要点: 财政收入增速转正,但预算完成进度偏慢。1-7月一般公共预算收入同比增速 0.1%, 结束年初以来负增长态势。7月单月增速达2.6%,创年内新高。其中,中央和地方 收入月度增速均达到今年以来新高。但从节奏看,一般公共预算收入完成进度偏慢。 7月财政数据点评:收入显著改善,支出加力保民生 7月外贸数据点评:出口增速超预期 2025.08.08 内消费税增幅扩大。消费税增速上升与社零消费保持韧性相一致,主要得益于消费 税基扩围。(3)个人所得税增速提高,增幅较大。个税提升与低基数、权益市场上 涨股息派增等因素有关。(4)土地与房地产、外贸相关税种表现仍欠佳。土地增值 税和契税增速仍处负增区间,印证土地与房地产市场不景气。出口退税增速下降, 关税增速仍落入负增区间。 财政支出总量平稳,支出结构显著分化。1-7月一般公共预算支出同比增速为3.4%, 与前值持平 ...

证券研究报告 固收视角 税收端改善,狭义支出提速 2025 年7月财政数据点评 华泰研究 2025年8月22日|中国内地 | 张继强 | 吴宇航* | 仇文竹* | 朱逸敏* | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究员 | 研究员 | 研究员 | 联系人 | | SAC No. S0570518110002 | SAC No. S0570521090004 | SAC No. S0570521050002 | SAC No. S0570124070133 | | SFC No. AMB145 | wuyuhang@htsc.com | qiuwenzhu@htsc.com | zhuyimin@htsc.com | | zhangjiqiang@htsc.com | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | | | | 财政部发布的7月财政数据显示.7月财政教据延续回暖态势,尤其税收端改善带动狭义财政支出有所提速, 广义财政则在银行注资特别国债、超长期特别国 ...

2025.08.22 本文字数：1631，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈益刊 更加积极财政政策陆续落地，推动经济平稳运行。 根据财政部最新数据，今年前7个月广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收入合计约 15.9万亿元，与去年同期基本持平。广义财政支出约21.5万亿元，同比增长约9.3%。广义财政支出超出 收入约5.6万亿元，同比增长约47%。 根据中国人民银行数据，今年前7个月，政府债券净融资8.9万亿元，同比增4.88万亿元。 财政支出规模及结构是衡量财政政策扩张程度的重要指标。今年前7个月广义财政支出增速（9.3%）明 显高于经济增速（上半年国内生产总值同比增长5.3%），折射出更加积极财政政策的落地。 中国银河证券首席宏观分析师张迪认为，整体来看，前7个月财政数据总量和结构基本延续持续改善趋 势。在土地收入维持平稳、印花税（含证券交易印花税）大幅增长情形下，7月广义财政收入增速改 善、回暖。在政府债发行前置下，广义财政支出力度加快上行，对经济增长起到了重要支撑。 今年以来，广义财政收入降幅持续缩窄，直至今年前7个月这一数据与去年同期持平。这主要得益于税 收收入和地方政府土地出让收 ...

更加积极财政政策陆续落地，推动经济平稳运行。 根据财政部最新数据，今年前7个月广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收入合计约 15.9万亿元，与去年同期基本持平。广义财政支出约21.5万亿元，同比增长约9.3%。广义财政支出超出 收入约5.6万亿元，同比增长约47%。 财政部数据显示，今年以来地方政府性基金中的国有土地使用权出让收入降幅不断缩窄，今年前7个月 土地出让收入约1.7万亿元，同比下降4.6%。 尽管广义财政收入逐步回暖，但也仅为去年同期水平，为了保持支出扩张力度，中央和地方政府加快发 债筹资，投向重大项目、防范风险等领域。 根据中国人民银行数据，今年前7个月，政府债券净融资8.9万亿元，同比增4.88万亿元。 在财政收入和债务收入支撑下，今年广义财政支出保持一定力度。从资金使用来看，民生领域支出不断 加力，得到充分保障。比如，社保就业、教育、卫生健康等支出增速均高于总体支出增速。 随着近期养老金提标、3岁以下育儿补贴和幼儿园大班免保教费等系列政策落地，民生支出持续加力， 这也体现了财政资金更多"投资于人"。 财政支出规模及结构是衡量财政政策扩张程度的重要指标。今年前7个月广义财政支出增 ...

Revenue Insights - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 135,839 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%[2] - The national general public budget expenditure was CNY 160,737 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[2] - Individual income tax revenue growth expanded to 8.8%, significantly higher than the overall tax revenue growth rate[2] Fund Budget Analysis - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, while expenditure surged by 31.7%[4] - The increase in fund expenditure is primarily due to the accelerated implementation of special national bonds and local special bonds[4] - The overall fiscal expenditure (public finance + government fund expenditure) grew by 9.3% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month[4] Expenditure Trends - Public finance expenditure growth remained stable, with a focus on social welfare, which saw a 6.8% increase, particularly in social security and employment sectors, which grew by 9.8%[3] - Infrastructure spending continued to show negative growth, with specific sectors like urban community and transportation also experiencing declines[3] - Debt interest payments increased by 6.4%, indicating a rising trend in this area[3] Fiscal Performance Metrics - By the end of July 2025, the completion rate of the national general public budget revenue was 61.8%, below the five-year average of 63.5%[2] - The completion rate for public finance expenditure was 54.1%, also lower than the five-year average of 54.7%[3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery in both revenue and expenditure growth in July 2025, primarily driven by improved tax revenue and proactive government spending focused on public welfare [1][2][3]. Revenue Summary - In the first seven months of 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with July showing a growth rate of 2.6%, marking the first positive cumulative revenue growth of the year [1]. - Tax revenue showed a significant rebound, while non-tax revenue continued to decline, indicating a shift towards improved tax collection [1]. - Local revenue growth outpaced that of the central government, alleviating some fiscal pressure at the local level [1]. - Specific tax categories such as domestic consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax showed marginal improvements, with a notable increase in securities transaction stamp duty reflecting a more active stock market [1]. Expenditure Summary - National general public budget expenditure rose by 3.4% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with July showing a recovery in growth [2]. - Both central and local fiscal expenditures were proactive, with central expenditure maintaining high growth rates and local expenditure turning positive, likely due to eased constraints from revenue [2]. - Key areas of expenditure included health care and social security, while infrastructure spending showed a slowdown [2]. - Government fund revenue growth saw a marginal decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% in the first seven months, influenced by the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [2]. Government Fund Expenditure Summary - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 31.7% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with central and local levels growing by 4.5 times and 18.1%, respectively [3]. - The acceleration in bond issuance and utilization was a significant factor driving this growth, with 2.89 trillion yuan allocated to government fund budget expenditures [3]. - Despite a slight decline in the growth rate of government fund budget expenditure in July, it remained at a high level [3]. Overall Fiscal Outlook - The article concludes that there are positive signs in fiscal revenue and expenditure, with improved tax collection and accelerated local revenue growth helping to ease fiscal pressures [3]. - Central government efforts to maintain economic stability through direct funding for major projects and transfer payments are emphasized, alongside continued support for public welfare [3]. - The ongoing challenges in the economy, particularly in the real estate sector, require close monitoring, with expectations for continued proactive macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year [3].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that the national general public budget revenue showed the highest growth in July, with the cumulative growth for January to July turning positive for the first time this year [1][5]. Revenue Performance - In July, the national general public budget revenue reached 202.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with central and local revenues growing by 2.2% and 3.1% respectively, marking the highest monthly growth of the year [3]. - For the period of January to July, the total national general public budget revenue was 1,358.39 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.1%, which is an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [5]. Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue showed a significant narrowing of decline, with July tax revenue at 180.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, continuing to recover since April [8]. - From January to July, total tax revenue was 1,109.33 billion yuan, down by 0.3%, but this decline was 0.9 percentage points less than in the first half of the year. Domestic value-added tax and domestic consumption tax grew by 3% and 2.1% respectively, with increases of 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the first half [8]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with tax revenue from railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment growing by 33%, and computer and communication equipment by 10.1% [10]. - The scientific research and technical service industry saw a tax revenue increase of 12.7%, while the cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors grew by 4.1% [10]. Expenditure Overview - National general public budget expenditure maintained growth, with total expenditure from January to July reaching 1,607.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [11]. - Key areas of expenditure included social security and employment, which grew by 9.8%, education by 5.7%, and health by 5.3%, while housing security expenditure saw a slight increase of 0.2% [13].

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was +0.1%, up from -0.3% in the previous period[1] - General public budget expenditure maintained a year-on-year growth rate of +3.4%, unchanged from the previous period[1] - Government fund budget revenue showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.7%, improving from -2.4% previously[1] - Government fund budget expenditure increased significantly by +31.7%, compared to +30.0% in the previous period[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In July, tax revenue increased by +5.0% year-on-year, marking an improvement for two consecutive months[3] - The four major tax categories showed varied performance, with domestic consumption tax growing by +5.38% and corporate income tax rising by +6.36%[4] - Personal income tax saw a notable increase of +13.92%, the highest among major tax categories, driven by low base effects and stock market gains[5] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue growth slowed to +8.9% in July, down from +20.8% the previous month, with land use rights revenue increasing by +7.2%[22] - Government fund budget expenditure growth also decreased to +42.4% from +79.2% in the previous month, with land-related expenditures declining by -4.1%[22] Infrastructure Investment and Economic Outlook - Infrastructure-related expenditure showed a recovery with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.81%, improving by 4.99 percentage points from the previous month[14] - The cumulative completion rate for general public budget revenue in the first seven months was 58.2%, lower than the average of the past five years[14] - The government is expected to have room for further fiscal policy adjustments to stabilize the domestic economy in the second half of the year[34]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 20 年 月 日 固定收益点评 财政收支改善，发力继续前置——7 月财政数据点评 7 月财政收入边际改善，财政支出维持较高增速。收入端，加总一般公共 预算收入和政府债基金收入，7 月广义财政收入当月同比 0.0%，较今年 此前增速有回升。支出端，7 月广义财政支出同比增速 12.1%，环比回落， 但增速仍较高。 收入端，7 月一般预算收入增速提升且结构改善，政府性基金收入维持正 增长，持续性有待观察。2025 年 7 月，一般公共预算收入当月同比 2.65% （前值-0.3%），税收收入同比 5.0%（（前值 1.0%），非税收入同比-12.93% （前值-3.7%），财政收入结构上有改善。7 月，政府性基金收入当月同比 8.9%（前值 20.8%），考虑到土地成交与纳入政府性基金收入存在时滞， 以及当前下游房地产投资增速持续偏弱，持续性有待进一步观察。 财政收入的改善主要来源于税收收入，增值税和企业所得税对税收增长的 贡献较多。7 月税收同比 5.0%，四大税种表现均较优，国内增值税同比 4.3%，消费税同比 5.4%，企业所得税同比 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 记者 王珍 财政部周二晚间发布的数据显示，1-7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增长0.1%，为今年以来首次 实现正增长；一般公共预算支出160737亿元，同比增长3.4%。 分析人士指出，近期"反内卷"行动推动企业盈利修复、个税征管工作加强、以及资本市场回暖带动税收收入增速 加快，是一般公共预算收入累计增速在7月转正的主要原因。 数据来源：财政部 制图：智通财经 东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳对智通财经表示，7月税收收入增速加快，主要与价格改善、个税征管加强及 股市上涨等因素有关，增值税、车辆购置税、非证券交易印花税、房地产相关的契税和土地增值税等税种收入增 速变化则与相关经济活动走势一致。 近期"反内卷"行动对价格的提升较为明显。7月，工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）环比下降0.2%，降幅较上月收窄 0.2个百分点，为今年3月以来首次降幅收窄；不包含食品和能源价格的核心居民消费价格指数同比涨幅连续3个 月回升，反映出服务类消费和耐用消费品价格在政策推动下有所改善。 7月，四大税种普涨。其中，企业所得税收入同比增长6.4%， ...