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中国经济-蔬菜价格上涨并非通胀重启-China Economics-Bump from Vegetables Is Not Reflation
2025-12-11 02:24
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Economics** sector, particularly analyzing the **Consumer Price Index (CPI)** and **Producer Price Index (PPI)** trends in the context of recent economic conditions in China [1][6]. Core Insights - **CPI Increase**: Vegetables contributed a **0.5 percentage point (pp)** increase to the headline CPI, with half attributed to a low base effect and the other half due to weak sequential growth caused by supply and logistics disruptions [2][8]. - **Core CPI Performance**: The core CPI remained stable at **1.2% year-on-year (YoY)**, supported by gold prices, indicating a lagged pass-through effect from international gold prices to domestic retail [3][8]. - **Service Prices Decline**: Service prices softened to **0.4% month-on-month (MoM)**, down from **1.0% in October**, reflecting a sluggish service PMI and job market conditions [3][8]. - **PPI Trends**: The modest MoM PPI was primarily driven by higher coal prices due to seasonal demand and production curbs, alongside imported inflation in non-ferrous metals. Most other PPI components remained soft [4][8]. Future Outlook - **CPI Projections**: The December headline CPI is expected to remain supported by a low base in food prices and potential inertia in gold retail prices, but will face downward pressure from normalizing vegetable prices and a higher base in core CPI [5][8]. - **PPI Expectations**: Pockets of improvement in PPI may continue, particularly as the housing downturn deepens, despite broader softness in the market [5][8]. Additional Noteworthy Points - **K-shaped PPI Dynamics**: The report highlights a K-shaped recovery in PPI, where coal and non-ferrous metals are experiencing upward pressure due to supply issues, contrasting with broader softness in mid to downstream sectors [8]. - **Weak Job Market Impact**: The ongoing weak job market and entrenched housing downturn are expected to exert continued downward pressure on CPI [8]. Data Summary - **CPI YoY Changes**: November CPI was **0.7%**, up from **0.2%** in October, and a significant improvement from **-0.3%** in September [7]. - **PPI YoY Changes**: The PPI for consumer goods showed a decline, with specific sectors like coal and non-ferrous metals showing notable increases [7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in China as it relates to CPI and PPI trends.
美联储观察 -12 月 FOMC 会议:立场偏向观望,静待经济走向-Federal Reserve Monitor-December FOMC Reaction Well Positioned to Wait and See How the Economy Evolves
2025-12-11 02:23
December 11, 2025 01:28 AM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor | North America December FOMC Reaction: Well Positioned to Wait and See How the Economy Evolves The Fed reduced the funds rate by 25bp but signaled that future adjustments will be more data dependent, as we expected. We continue to expect further cuts in January and April, but if the labor market stabilizes, then future cuts may not come until inflation decelerates. Key expectations | M December 11, 2025 01:28 AM GMT December FOMC Reaction: | Chief US E ...
Trump SLUMP rocks WH: See Trump fact-checked on live tv!
MSNBC· 2025-12-11 01:06
Americans are facing these high prices. It's something the president has been facing in his politics and now he's pushing back on the facts. People are living. >> They use the word affordability and that's their only word. They say affordability and everyone says, "Oh, that must mean Trump has high prices. " No, our prices are coming down. >> Fact check. False. Uh, and we put that up so you could see it in real time. The prices are going up as they did last year under the Biden Harris administration. But th ...
After December Cut, The Fed's Next Move Is Far From Certain
Investopedia· 2025-12-11 01:00
Core Points - The Federal Reserve cut its key rate by a quarter-point for the third consecutive meeting, bringing the fed funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [1][2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the current rate is at the high end of the "neutral" range, suggesting a balance between stimulating the economy and controlling inflation [2] - Fed officials project only one further quarter-point rate cut next year, contingent on incoming economic data and the evolving outlook [3] Economic Implications - The Fed's divided views on rate cuts indicate that upcoming economic reports could influence decisions, particularly if unemployment rises unexpectedly or inflation increases [4][9] - Key reports on inflation and the job market are expected soon, which will provide more clarity on whether further rate cuts are necessary [5] - Financial markets currently price in a 22% chance of a fourth consecutive rate cut in January [6] Internal Fed Dynamics - There was dissent among Fed officials regarding the rate cut, with two members opposing the decision and six others suggesting that keeping rates flat was appropriate [7] - The divided vote reflects the Fed's challenging position of managing rising unemployment alongside accelerating inflation [7][10] - Powell noted that inflation this year has been significantly influenced by tariffs imposed during the previous administration, affecting consumer prices [10][11]
With this president, it won't be the last Fed cut, says Jim Cramer
Youtube· 2025-12-11 00:40
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter point, which is seen as a positive signal for stock buying [1][2][3] - Following the Fed meeting, major stock indices experienced significant gains, with the Dow rising by 497 points, S&P increasing by 67 points, and NASDAQ advancing by 33% [3] - The current economic data is unclear, but the Fed remains supportive of the bullish market sentiment by maintaining an easy monetary policy [5] Group 2 - There are concerns regarding inflation rates and their implications for future rate cuts, but these are deemed less significant for stock buyers [4][5] - The narrative surrounding the economy includes questions about job impacts from the AI sector, but the focus remains on buying good stocks regardless of these concerns [4][5]
17-year-old Mexican chain closes most restaurants after ICE raids
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-11 00:37
Core Insights - A long-standing Mexican restaurant chain, Taco Giro, has closed nearly all of its locations due to a severe crisis stemming from the loss of many employees and legal issues [1][4]. Industry Challenges - Mexican restaurants in the U.S. are facing significant challenges, including rising labor and food costs driven by inflation, higher interest rates, and cautious consumer spending [2]. - The broader economic challenges are compounded by specific legal issues affecting Taco Giro, which has led to uncertainty about its future [4]. Company Background - Taco Giro was founded in 2008 by two brothers in Tucson and is known for its authentic Sonoran- and Tampico-style Mexican cuisine, particularly seafood dishes [3]. - The chain has built a strong community presence in Arizona and Mexico over 17 years [4]. Recent Developments - Following ICE raids on December 5, which resulted in the arrest of 46 kitchen workers (10% of its staff), Taco Giro closed all nine of its Arizona restaurants while keeping its Mexico location open [5][6]. - The company has communicated with customers via social media, indicating a temporary closure to make necessary adjustments [7]. - Currently, Taco Giro has slowly reopened three locations and is considering closing two additional underperforming restaurants, which were already planned prior to the raids [7].
Powell shares his thoughts on his legacy.
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-11 00:30
I'm wondering if you've given any thought to what you want your legacy to be. >> My legacy. I My thought [clears throat] is that I really want to turn this job over to whoever replaces me with the economy in really good shape.That's what I want to do. I want I want inflation to be under control coming back down to 2% and I want the labor market to be strong. That's what I want.And uh all of my efforts are to to get to that place. they have been all along. But ultimately that's that's what and it's you know ...
Westpac director survives investor backlash over ASX ties
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-10 23:44
By Scott Murdoch SYDNEY, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Westpac non-executive director Peter Nash was reelected to the bank's board on Thursday, surviving a sizeable investor backlash over his ties to the troubled Australian Securities Exchange. About 40% of investors voted against his reelection as a board director at the annual meeting of Australia's second-largest bank by market value, the results lodged with the stock exchange showed. Nash needed at least 50% support, and the high protest vote was the secon ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-12-10 23:42
After a month of handwringing about the lack of federal economic data, inflation, rising unemployment and pressure from the White House, Wall Street got its answer from the Fed: Here’s your Evening Briefing https://t.co/2lc6fJvzMU ...
Apollo's Marc Rowan on the Fed, private credit markets, and the data center boom
Youtube· 2025-12-10 23:30
Fed decision day in America. In your view, what does getting policy right look like. >> I don't know if there's a right answer here.Um, you know, internally at Apollo, we do not think there's a need for a cut. There's nothing in the data that tells us, but at the same time, I understand the decision. But longer term, I'm not sure it really matters.I mean, if you think about what's happening, the market is ultimately determining the outcome. We have governments around the world who are borrowing record amoun ...