Streetwise: Uncertainty is usually the enemy of investment. This year not so much, James Mackintosh writes. https://t.co/r1jlMCkVAk ...

The trade headlines overnight have caused that kind of volatility, haven't they. They've caused some concern in Asia about the levels that we are ultimately going to see on the trade front. Well, it was a it was a reasonably sizable reaction, but not a big reaction.Are we getting immune to the trade headlines. Is is that maybe what the take away from today should be. Yes, we're worried about it, but we're not as worried as we were on Liberation Day. We're not getting the kind of volatility as we did that.No ...

Social Media & Mental Health - Social media negatively impacts the mental health of over 91% of individuals aged 16-24 [3] - Over 60% of high school students feel unsure about their career paths [3] - Individuals often present curated, idealized versions of themselves online, creating a disconnect from reality [4] - The pressure to maintain a perfect online persona can lead to feelings of inadequacy and anxiety [5][10] Authenticity & Uncertainty - Uncertainty is a natural and acceptable part of life, not a weakness [6] - It is beneficial to schedule time for self-reflection and exploration of interests [7] - Unsubscribing from pressures and influences that negatively impact self-esteem can create space for personal growth [9] - Embracing authenticity and choosing to be real is more valuable than striving for an unattainable ideal of perfection [10][11] Personal Growth & Exploration - Courage to explore without a perfect plan is essential for personal development [8] - Mindfulness involves being honest with oneself [10] - Creating one's own path is more important than rushing to find a predetermined one [11]

Chile’s central bank said its decision to hold rates last month was the best option given higher uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict https://t.co/W44l59uXXh ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - The World Bank anticipates Thailand's monetary policy to become "more accommodative" in the current year [1] Economic Uncertainty - Mounting external and domestic uncertainty are factors influencing the expected monetary policy shift [1]

But first, let's go for Wall Street's reaction. Bring in the co-anchor of CNBC's Squawkbox and a New York Times columnist, Andrew Ross Sorcin. Andrew, talk a little bit about the reaction that you're hearing from from Wall Street. Well, look, I think that Wall Street just wants to get this behind them. The question is whether they ultimately will. Um, you know, the other thing that happened this morning. So, you're going to be seeing the the markets wobbling this morning. And the reason the markets are wobb ...

officer at Wealth Management. Alan, good morning. Good to see you, Frank.>> Always a pleasure to be here with you. >> So we were just kind of showing what we like to call the wall of worry using some air quotes there. Is there one of those in particular that you see as the biggest worry specifically for the markets.>> I think the biggest worry right now is around uncertainty, which breeds volatility and complexity. And when you look across the landscape, whether it be the situation in Washington, which you ...

Economic Outlook & Uncertainty - Trade negotiations are a relevant factor influencing the European economy, with predictions varying based on different outcomes [1] - High levels of uncertainty persist due to geopolitical risks and the unknown final outcome of trade negotiations [4][5] - The Euro area's growth rate is expected to be below 1% in 2025 and slightly above that in 2026, with risks tilted to the downside [9] - Investment is flat, and consumption is not recovering, indicating a weak economic situation [9][10] Monetary Policy - The ECB has reduced interest rates eight times, from 4% to 2%, and is in a good place to deal with the future [3] - Further interest rate cuts are unlikely to significantly improve the economy, and the focus should be on certainty in trade and fiscal policies [10][11] - The evolution of inflation is expected to be positive, with the possibility of undershooting the target being limited [6][7] - The ECB does not target any concrete level for the exchange rate but monitors its level and evolution, considering its impact on inflation [16] Inflation & Exchange Rate - The ECB is confident that inflation will reach 2%, with favorable factors including the exchange rate and the evolution of energy prices [17][18][19] - An exchange rate of 1.17 or even 1.20 is considered acceptable, but overshooting beyond that would be more complicated [14] Fiscal Policy & Market Risks - Increased defensive spending is supported, but fiscal sustainability is needed, as markets may not continue to overlook fiscal policy [21][22] - Concerns exist about a market event linked to perceived unsustainable fiscal policy, which could lead to higher yields and impact valuations [23][24]

Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB believes it is near its target after hiking rates ten times and lowering them eight times, but should not be complacent [2] - The ECB is taking a meeting-to-meeting, data-dependent approach due to uncertainty [4] - The ECB considers the current interest rate level to be in neutral territory, around 2% [5][6] - A rate cut would be stimulative [4] Economic Outlook & Risks - Volatility in energy markets indicates a need for caution [3][8] - Trade frontloading may have contributed to good numbers in the first quarter [12] - Uncertainty surrounding trade and tariffs could negatively impact the European economic outlook [15] - The European economy is in a fragile situation, making it vulnerable to uncertainty [16][17] Euro's Role & Stability - The current price level of the euro against the dollar is close to the long-term mean [9] - The ECB is not overly focused on the exchange rate, but considers it as one factor among many affecting inflation [10][11] - Strengthening the capital market union and banking union is crucial to making the euro more attractive to international investors [23][25] - A more relevant euro could contribute to a stable global environment alongside the US dollar [26]

Economic Outlook & GDP - Consensus view, including CBO and Fed, anticipates GDP growth slowdown due to tariffs and headwinds like student loan payments restarting [3][4] - Potential for stagflation exists if tariffs of $400 billion lead to either higher inflation or lower earnings [2][5] - US GDP growth may slow to 1%-15% in the next 12 months, but the US growth outlook remains stronger than other countries like Europe [14][15] Trade & Tariffs - Tariffs raising $400 billion could significantly impact S&P 500 earnings, potentially reducing them by 20% if companies absorb the costs [2] - Trade remains a significant risk factor, particularly regarding who bears the burden of the $400 billion in tariffs [2] US Dollar & Fed Policy - The dollar experienced a 10% decline in trade-weighted terms over the past six months [7] - The market's pricing for Fed rate cuts this year is considered too aggressive; only one rate cut is expected [8] - The Fed committee, not solely the chair, decides on interest rates and QE, limiting the chair's individual influence [11][12] - The outlook for the dollar in the second half of the year is brighter, partly due to Section 899 being resolved [6][15] Labor Market - The labor market is currently holding up well, with jobless claims remaining relatively stable [9][10]