Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is weaker than headline unemployment suggests due to sluggish hiring and declining labor supply, potentially influenced by immigration policies [1][2] - Businesses are not firing, but hiring is slow, contributing to the weakness in the labor market [1][2] - BLS data may require updates in practices, technology, and funding to maintain confidence in the numbers [4][5][9] - Alternative data sources and trends over three, six, or nine months should be considered to assess the labor market, rather than over-relying on any single data print [10][11] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Prospects for future GDP growth have slowed from initial estimates of 225%-250% to 125%-150%, impacting treasury yields [17] - The ten-year treasury yield is influenced by supply and demand factors, future growth prospects, and deficits, with concerns about the amount of treasuries being sold [18][19] - The market anticipates a potential rate cut in September, but it is not a certainty due to conflicting factors such as above 2% inflation and sluggish growth [20][21][22] - The Fed faces a conflict between its dual mandates of employment and inflation, potentially requiring a serious look at cutting rates by 25 basis points in September [24][25] Fed Independence and Treasury Market - There is a strong culture of independence at the Fed, and the onus is on the chair to uphold that ethic [14] - Concerns exist regarding the weakening dollar and upward pressure on rates due to factors like firing a statistician and the rest of the world looking elsewhere [16] - The US is running a $2 trillion deficit, adding to concerns about the supply and demand of treasuries [18]

2025 Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call August 7, 2025 1 These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause the Company's actual results and performance in future periods to be materially different from any future results or performance expressed in or suggested by forward-looking statements in this presentation. Investors are urged to consider these factors carefully in evaluating the forward-looking statements and are cautioned not t ...

- [Narrator] The US economy is facing a make or break moment. - And our country's becoming very rich. - [Narrator] Key economic data is painting a murky picture.Inflation has so far defied the worst of economists' expectations, and the US consumer remains strong, but pockets of weakness in the labor market and slower growth are raising red flags. - I think most economists expected this summer to really be that period where, you know, you begin to see the effects, and I think we're now like we're right at th ...

The key UK interest rate has been cut to 4%. But the Bank of England struck a more cautious note than markets had expected, with stubborn inflation leaving the vote on a knife-edge. Will we see another reduction before the end of this year? https://t.co/8MzHtHlZ27 ...

As of midnight this morning, President Trump's tariffs on dozens of America's trading partners are in effect right now. A variety of products will be hit. From European appliances to Japanese cars to toys from China and TVs from South Korea.The overall average effective tariff rate is now more than 17% which is the highest level in nearly a century. Meanwhile, Trump announced yesterday he will double tariffs on India to 50% due to the country's purchases of Russian oil. That is set to go into effect later t ...

Mexico Annual Inflation Hits Lowest Since 2020 Before Banxico Vote https://t.co/ge7Kd54vEa ...

The Internet revealed who was a critical thinker in financial markets and who wasn’t.Did you understand bitcoin? Did you realize inflation was coming in 2020? Did you fall for the tariff empty shelf narrative of 2025?Think for yourself or your portfolio will suffer. ...

With inflation soaring and dollars in short supply, Bolivians are turning to crypto to shop, save and survive https://t.co/5R6V73JpUE ...

Group 1: Labor Market Insights - The labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of weakness, with only 73,000 jobs added in July and an unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [2] - The three-month average job gains have dropped to just 35,000, indicating a slowdown in hiring [2] - Fed President Mary Daly expressed concern that further slowing in the labor market could lead to a rapid decline [2] Group 2: Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to temporarily increase inflation, but Daly does not foresee a lasting impact [3] - Underlying inflation, excluding tariffs, has been gradually decreasing and is expected to continue this trend due to restrictive monetary policy and a slowing economy [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated that no decision has been made regarding a potential rate cut in September, emphasizing the need to monitor tariff impacts closely [4] - New York Fed President John Williams acknowledged the job market remains solid but expressed concern over downward revisions in hiring [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Growth Stocks - Growth stocks are likely to perform better in a low-rate environment, as lower borrowing costs facilitate company expansion [5] - The attractiveness of fixed-income investments diminishes with lower rates, prompting investors to seek higher returns in equity markets [5] Group 5: Recommended ETFs - Several top-ranked growth-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are highlighted for potential investment if the Fed begins cutting rates: - Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) – Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [6] - Invesco S&P 500 Pure Growth ETF (RPG) – Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [6] - Invesco Large Cap Growth ETF (PWB) – Zacks Rank 1 [6] - Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (VOOG) – Zacks Rank 1 [6] - iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) – Zacks Rank 1 [6]

Japan cut its growth forecast for the current fiscal year as US tariffs and persistent inflation weigh on the economy, complicating the policy course of the Bank of Japan https://t.co/WXDrFv8ssA ...