Core Viewpoint - A significant stock market collapse is anticipated, driven by various economic red flags, including canceled corporate deals, banking sector strains, and ongoing stagflation [1] Economic Indicators - Rate cuts are viewed as detrimental, primarily benefiting banks and government debt rather than average households, with expectations of a 40% to 60% decline in equities over time [2][3] - Excessive federal spending is highlighted as a critical issue that could reinforce inflation without aiding ordinary workers [4] Employment Trends - Job data is expected to worsen due to advancements in AI, leading to significant job losses and challenges for displaced workers in finding new employment [5] Corporate Earnings - Companies like Nvidia are accused of inflating earnings through internal spending, raising concerns about valuation amidst a "technical revolution" [6] Market Predictions - A potential move towards universal basic income may arise from reduced earning power in the current economic environment, with significant vulnerabilities noted in U.S. equity benchmarks [7] - A bullish outlook for precious metals is presented, with gold predicted to reach $6,000 and silver above $80 within the next twelve months, driven by persistent inflation [8][9] Market Performance - Skepticism exists regarding the ability of equity markets to sustain recent gains, with historical data suggesting that four consecutive years of double-digit advances are rare [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses how multipolarity, deglobalization, and nearshoring are expected to lead to a structural increase in inflation, as predicted by economists [1] Group 1: Economic Trends - Multipolarity is emerging as a significant trend, indicating a shift in global power dynamics that may affect economic stability and inflation rates [1] - Deglobalization is highlighted as a factor that could disrupt traditional supply chains, potentially leading to increased costs and inflationary pressures [1] - Nearshoring is becoming more prevalent as companies seek to relocate production closer to their consumer markets, which may also contribute to rising inflation due to higher operational costs [1] Group 2: Inflation Predictions - Economists predict that these trends will not only affect current inflation rates but may also lead to a long-term structural shift in how inflation behaves in the global economy [1] - The anticipated increase in inflation is expected to be driven by changes in trade patterns and production locations, which could alter pricing dynamics across various industries [1]

马来银行：新加坡2026年经济增速或从高位温和回落 德意志银行：2030年全球AI数据中心支出或达4万亿美元，成本压力加剧 【机构分析】 摩根士丹利：韩元持续升值或需结构性改革落地 ·摩根士丹利利率策略师预计，2026年欧元区11个最大国家的政府债券总发行量将增加约7%，达到1.472 万亿欧元。1月份可能延续往年趋势，成为发行最活跃的月份。策略师指出，尽管年初集中发行模式在 各国间存在差异，但今年情况预计大致相似，仅通过拍卖发行的债券规模就可能达到约950亿至1050亿 欧元。 ·Exness分析师指出，市场在美联储关键政策周前保持观望，即将公布的经济数据将主导美元与利率前 景。投资者对委内瑞拉局势反应平淡，焦点转向本周美联储官员讲话，有关通胀与就业的信号或引发汇 市与债市波动。 ·丹斯克银行策略师指出，15-20年期国债正取代30年期成为欧元区长端债券新热点，受荷兰养老金改革 推动，欧债发行结构正向该期限区间倾斜。 ·摩根士丹利策略师指出，AI数据中心大规模投资正推高芯片与电力成本，预计美国通胀在2027年底前 将持续高于美联储2%目标。 ·英杰华投资集团警示，AI热潮叠加欧美日财政刺激将加剧通胀压力，各 ...

Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - U.S. stock indexes achieved record highs in 2025, with seven tech groups contributing half of all market earnings, driven by enthusiasm for AI and monetary easing [1] - Expectations for further government stimulus in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, along with the AI boom, are anticipated to refuel global growth in 2026 [2] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Analysts warn that inflation risks are resurfacing, with expectations that U.S. consumer price inflation will remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until the end of 2027 due to heavy corporate investment in AI [7][8] - The multi-trillion-dollar investments by hyperscalers like Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet in new data centers are contributing to inflationary pressures due to high energy and chip consumption [6][12] Group 3: Impact on Tech Companies - Tighter monetary policy could reduce investor appetite for speculative tech, increase funding costs for AI projects, and negatively impact tech companies' profits and share prices [5][6] - Companies like Oracle and Broadcom have already shown signs of market nervousness, with Oracle's shares dropping due to soaring spending and Broadcom warning of squeezed profit margins [9][10] Group 4: Future Projections - Deutsche Bank projects that AI data-center capital expenditure could reach up to $4 trillion by 2030, potentially leading to supply bottlenecks in chips and electricity, which would escalate investment costs [12] - The rising costs of memory chips are expected to pressure prices and profits for AI-focused companies, prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies in the sector [14][15]

Group 1 - The artificial intelligence (AI) boom in 2025 created trillions of dollars in value for tech and tech-adjacent companies, contributing to record highs in the S&P 500 stock market index [1] - Falling interest rates reduce the cost of debt, boost corporate profits, and allow companies to borrow more for growth, which can accelerate returns for investors [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to implement more interest rate cuts in 2026 to address rising unemployment, despite elevated inflation [2][9] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve aims to maintain price stability with a target inflation rate of around 2% annually while also striving for full employment without a specific unemployment target [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained above the Fed's 2% target throughout 2025, with a November reading showing an annualized inflation rate of 2.7% [6] - A series of weak job reports led to an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6% in November, the highest in over four years, prompting the Fed to consider further interest rate cuts [8]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments align with its forecasts, indicating a commitment to monetary policy adjustments in response to economic conditions [1][2] - Japan's economy experienced a moderate recovery last year, despite challenges such as higher U.S. tariffs impacting corporate profits [1] - The BOJ raised its policy rate to a 30-year high of 0.75% from 0.5%, marking a significant shift from decades of low borrowing costs and monetary support [3] Group 2 - Wages and prices are expected to rise moderately together, suggesting a potential for sustained economic growth through adjusted monetary support [2] - The upcoming BOJ quarterly outlook report, scheduled for January 22-23, is anticipated to provide insights into the board's perspective on inflationary pressures resulting from recent yen depreciation [4] - The yen's weakness has increased import costs and broader inflation, leading some BOJ board members to advocate for further rate hikes [4][5] Group 3 - Market expectations of additional BOJ rate hikes have resulted in increased yields, with the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond briefly reaching a 27-year high of 2.125% [5] - Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama emphasized that Japan is at a critical juncture in transitioning to a growth-driven economy, moving away from a deflationary environment [5]

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets are experiencing a surge due to AI enthusiasm, but there is a significant risk of rising inflation that could undermine this growth [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market rally is largely driven by investments in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence [1] - The tech investment boom is contributing to inflationary pressures, which may not be fully accounted for by investors [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - A surge in inflation could pose a threat to the sustainability of the current stock market highs [1] - Investors may need to reassess their strategies in light of potential inflationary trends stemming from the tech sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in cross-year funding prices has been observed, but the central bank's increased reverse repo operations have maintained a balanced liquidity environment. Concerns over government bond supply at the beginning of the year have led to bearish sentiment in the bond market, with a noticeable rise in the yield curve. The implementation of new regulations on fund sales fees is expected to alleviate redemption pressure on bond funds [1][15]. Market Overview - The yield changes for various maturities of government bonds from December 26, 2025, to January 4, 2026, include increases of 4.5 basis points (BP) for the 1-year bond, 1.44 BP for the 2-year bond, and 2.99 BP for the 5-year bond, among others [2][3]. - The bond market experienced a significant decline, particularly in long-term and ultra-long-term bonds, with the 30-year bond futures dropping 1.28%, marking the lowest level since October 2024 [5]. Regulatory Changes - The new regulations on the management of sales fees for publicly offered securities investment funds have been officially implemented, allowing for a longer redemption buffer period of 12 months and easing the redemption fee rates compared to previous drafts. This is expected to reduce the redemption pressure on bond funds [1][15][16]. Primary Market Activity - In the previous week, a total of 9 bonds were issued, amounting to 26 billion yuan, all of which were local government bonds from Beijing. For the upcoming week, 27 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling approximately 157.66 billion yuan, including 4 billion yuan in government bonds and 117.66 billion yuan in local government bonds [7]. International Market Insights - The U.S. long-term treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year treasury yield increasing by 6.3 BP to 4.19%, and the 30-year yield reaching a new high of 4.87%. This increase is attributed to better-than-expected employment data and ongoing expansion in the manufacturing sector, which has reduced demand for safe-haven assets [8][9]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from various institutions have noted that the new regulations on redemption fees for bond funds are a significant positive development, potentially stabilizing the bond market sentiment. However, concerns regarding the supply-demand imbalance for ultra-long bonds remain, and investors are advised to be cautious of re-pricing risks in the yield curve [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - Louis Navellier maintains a bullish outlook for the stock market in 2026, expecting double-digit returns despite concerns about stagflation and recession risks in the U.S. economy [5]. Economic Indicators - Effective tariff rates have increased significantly to 16.8% from 2.4% in January, the highest level since 1935, contributing to rising inflation [3]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.6% from a low of 3.4% in 2023, with layoffs exceeding 1.1 million, marking a 54% increase from the previous year [6]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has been on the sidelines but cut rates at three consecutive FOMC meetings in September, October, and December due to job losses [3]. - Navellier argues that the Fed should cut key interest rates four more times in 2026 to achieve a neutral rate, suggesting that further cuts may be necessary if deflationary pressures increase [7]. Market Outlook - Despite various economic challenges, Navellier believes that the headwinds from tariffs and inflation are temporary, paving the way for profit-friendly rate cuts, higher GDP, and share price gains [4]. - The forecast for 2026 includes expectations for another year of double-digit returns, contrasting with prevailing bear-market concerns [5].

Group 1: Keynote Insights at CES - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and AMD CEO Lisa Su will deliver keynote speeches at CES, which could significantly influence sentiment in the AI infrastructure sector heading into 2026 [1][2] - Huang's presentation will be closely watched for announcements regarding next-generation AI accelerators and data center roadmaps, as well as customer demand sustainability [1] - AMD's Lisa Su is under pressure to showcase the adoption of the MI300 series and competitive positioning against Nvidia in data center GPUs, with potential wins from cloud service providers enhancing AMD's credibility [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - The week features a comprehensive economic data calendar culminating in the December jobs report, which will provide insights into labor market conditions and influence Federal Reserve policy expectations [2][3] - Key economic indicators such as ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs will offer insights into industrial and services sector health, impacting market sentiment and potential sector rotation [4][6] - The absence of major earnings reports allows economic data and CES announcements to dominate market focus, testing whether the market can maintain momentum from any year-end rally [2][6] Group 3: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The week's economic data will provide multiple perspectives on inflation, with ISM prices components and wage growth data being crucial for assessing inflationary pressures [7] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting highlighted the need for sustained evidence of disinflation before committing to further policy easing, making this week's inflation signals particularly significant [7] - Any evidence of reaccelerating price pressures could impact rate-sensitive sectors and support the dollar, while benign inflation readings may provide relief for risk assets [7]