Inflation likely rose to a 17-month high in September, as tariffs pushed prices higher, forecasters say. https://t.co/zAzUgYhZN8 ...

Market Overview - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes rebounded after a previous decline due to China tariff concerns, finding support at their 21-day exponential moving averages [1] - The S&P 500 gained over 9% from June 27 to October 10, a typical recovery pattern after declines of 10% to 20% since 1945 [2] Upcoming Earnings - Key companies reporting earnings include Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA), with significant focus on defense/aerospace stocks and mining/steelmaking sectors [3] - Analysts expect Netflix to report earnings of $6.96 per share on sales of $11.51 billion, reflecting gains of 29% and 17% respectively [7] - Tesla's third-quarter earnings are anticipated to show a 26% decline in EPS to 54 cents, with sales increasing about 4% to $26.27 billion [6] Sector Highlights - In the defense/aerospace sector, companies like Lockheed Martin, GE Aerospace, and Northrop Grumman are expected to report mixed results, with earnings declines and revenue gains projected [8] - The mining sector anticipates Cleveland-Cliffs to show 7% topline growth, while Newmont is expected to post a 77% EPS increase on 12% revenue growth [9] Stock Performance - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Guardant Health, Walmart, FTAI Aviation, and Cloudflare are identified as stocks near buy points despite market volatility [4] - Valmont Industries is projected to have a 31% year-to-date gain, with an overweight rating from JPMorgan [11] - GE Vernova is expected to report a quarterly EPS of $1.72, up from a loss of 16 cents per share a year ago [12]

Euro-area inflation will probably meet the ECB’s 2% goal over the coming years, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said https://t.co/mmSop0eulK ...

And the reason I'm buying Bitcoin is because I think when we get through the all-time highs again and basically get rid of this 4-year cycle belief, now there's no imaginary place for people to ever again care about. And that's normally what happens in equity markets. And oh, by the way, 2017 was the end of the Donald Trump tax cuts. We've had tariffs this year. We've had bad stuff happened this year. The equity market in 18 was bad. At one point, it was down 20% year to date in December. In 2022, the equit ...

Core Insights - Concerns over inflation, deteriorating U.S. fiscal health, Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical instability are prompting central banks to shift their focus back to gold, traditionally viewed as a safe asset [1][9] - Gold has recently surpassed the euro to become the second-largest global reserve asset after the U.S. dollar, marking a significant shift as it now represents a larger share of central banks' reserves than Treasuries for the first time since 1996 [2][9] - The last time gold held a greater share of global reserves than Treasuries was in 1996, a period characterized by aggressive gold sales by many European countries ahead of the euro's launch [3][6] Market Context - Gold prices experienced a significant decline to around $250 an ounce in August 1999, down 40% from early 1996, which led to the adoption of the "Washington Agreement" to cap central bank sales [6] - The late 1990s environment was not favorable for gold, marked by solid economic growth, low inflation, and a rare U.S. budget surplus [6] - The current global macro environment is markedly different, presenting conditions that are more conducive to gold investment, while Treasuries are facing relative struggles [7]

Core Insights - More than half of Americans are working longer hours than six months ago due to the cost of living crisis, which has led to reduced spending and increased side hustles [1][4] - The number of U.S. consumers identifying as "financially unhealthy" has remained stable, indicating ongoing financial strain without short-term improvement [2][6] - Approximately 70% of consumers report that the cost of goods is rising faster than their incomes, contributing to the need for longer working hours [3][7] Economic Indicators - The consumer price index rose by 2.9% year-over-year in August, with food prices increasing by 3.2% during the same period [4] - The percentage of financially vulnerable consumers remains at 64%, unchanged from six months ago, while the figure for those feeling financially healthy is significantly lower [6][8] - The proportion of consumers stating that prices are rising faster than their incomes has improved slightly from 71% to 68% [7]

“Linkers” are issued by states around the world, pegged to official inflation indices. But how would they really fare if a debt-laden government let inflation rip? https://t.co/5TbfNBNZnu ...

Taxation and Government Revenue - The IRS announced higher federal tax brackets for 2026, with the top rate of 37% for individuals earning above $640,600 and married couples earning above $768,700. The standard deduction will increase to $16,100 for singles and $32,200 for married couples [3] - US tax revenue has increased more than six-fold since 1980, while the national debt has risen 38 times during the same period, indicating a significant disparity in revenue management [24] Insurance and Natural Disasters - A Wells Fargo Securities study reported that insured losses from the Southern California wildfires this year are estimated at $30 billion, with 85% of losses expected from homeowners' insurance [7] - The issuance of building permits in affected areas is hindered by bureaucratic red tape, complicating recovery efforts for homeowners [7] Real Estate Market Trends - Building permits have been declining since late 2021, which is a historically reliable recession signal, coinciding with increased Google searches for mortgage assistance surpassing levels seen during the 2008 housing crisis [10] - The national office vacancy rate reached 21% by the end of June, with major cities like San Francisco and Denver experiencing rates of 28% and 37% respectively [17] Consumer Financial Health - Late payments among apartment renters have been rising since April 2024, indicating financial strain among renters [13] - A new financial technology firm, Yendo, allows individuals with poor credit to access equity in their depreciating used cars at a high interest rate, highlighting the challenges faced by consumers with low credit scores [21] Economic Indicators and Market Behavior - Despite the USD declining over 10% and negative economic data, stock markets continue to rise, suggesting a disconnect between market performance and economic health [27] - There is a noted correlation of 92% between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 since 2019, indicating Bitcoin's speculative nature rather than its status as a safe haven asset [30]

Market Overview - The market has experienced significant volatility, with major indices like the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ fluctuating daily, indicating underlying market dynamics [1][2] - The current market is described as a "high-risk bull market," suggesting that while the market trend is upward, there are substantial risks associated with speculation and high valuations [4][5] Company Performance - Small-cap companies without earnings are highlighted as a concern, suggesting caution in investment decisions regarding these firms [3] - Companies with strong cash flow and profitability are recommended for investment, with return on equity being a key metric for evaluation [4] Interest Rates and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts and potential future cuts are influencing market sentiment, with comments from Fed officials indicating a cautious approach to job risks and inflation [6][7][8] - Inflation remains a significant concern, with current measures indicating it is above the Fed's target of 2%, which could impact monetary policy decisions [9] Individual Stock Insights - Gilead Sciences is noted for its strong performance and product offerings in the HIV market, with the stock reaching record levels despite being more expensive than before [10] - Qualcomm is viewed as a controversial but potentially undervalued investment, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13, suggesting it may be a good opportunity despite recent struggles [11][12] - Oracle's stock is under pressure despite positive earnings, with a high price-to-earnings ratio of 42 raising concerns about its valuation sustainability [13][14] Bond Market Concerns - Rising interest rates, particularly the 10-year yield reaching 4%, are raising concerns about the bond market and its implications for overall market stability [14][15]

Industry Problem - Old money system is broken due to borders, inflation, and bank policies [1] Solution Proposed - OKX Simple mode is presented as a fix for the broken old money system [1] - The solution can be found on The New Money App [1]