Consumer Travel Trends - TSA expects to screen 185 million travelers this holiday weekend, with recent days ranking among the busiest in TSA history [1] - TSA hit a new all-time high a week ago Sunday, screening over 3 million people [3] - People like to travel and continue to spend, regardless of economic conditions [2] Booking Holdings' Strategy & Performance - Booking Holdings is investing heavily in generative AI to develop tools like the AI trip planner on Bookingcom [3][5] - Booking Holdings emphasizes its global presence, noting that the US is a small portion of its global business [7] - Regional events and geopolitical risks impact specific areas, but Booking Holdings' global reach mitigates overall impact, as travelers may shift destinations [9][10] AI and Technology in Travel - Travelers want help and assistance to ensure they're getting the best value for their trip [4] - AI is transforming the travel experience, offering assistance in location, translation, and overall ease of travel [3][5] - The use of AI in travel is continuously improving, with Booking Holdings aiming to be a leader in this area due to its scale and long-term investment [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a base case for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with potential for an earlier cut in July if unemployment rises sharply [6][11][40]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data over the summer months to determine the timing of potential rate cuts, with a consensus forming around the likelihood of cuts resuming in September [5][8]. - Consumer spending has shown significant slowdown, particularly in real services spending, which has implications for economic growth and inflation [10][12][19]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in June, with a possibility of reaching 4.5% if job market conditions worsen, which could prompt earlier rate cuts [11][23][40]. Economic Indicators - Services inflation has remained subdued, with core PCE inflation at 0.179% month-over-month, indicating a cooling inflation environment [9][30]. - Real personal spending has stagnated, with a notable decline in both goods and services spending observed in recent months [10][30]. - The housing sector is experiencing weakness, with new home sales declining by 13.7% month-over-month in May, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [15][18][30]. Labor Market Trends - Initial jobless claims have shown a slight decline, but continuing claims are rising, suggesting a loosening labor market [24][67]. - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.0 in June, indicating growing concerns among consumers regarding the labor market and economic conditions [19][30]. - Average hourly earnings are expected to slow to 0.2% month-over-month, reflecting a weakening labor demand environment [38][39]. Manufacturing and Trade - ISM Manufacturing is expected to remain in contraction, while ISM Services is projected to rebound slightly, indicating modest growth in services activity [60][63]. - The trade balance is anticipated to widen to -$71.7 billion, driven by a drop in exports, which could weigh on GDP growth [57][58].

The UK’s bright weather is lifting spirits and helping fill cash registers, @lararhiannonw writes, but it also comes with challenges (via @opinion) https://t.co/xfWrrZDopP ...

Market Overview - The market has recovered most of its losses from earlier in the quarter, finishing strong despite initial turbulence caused by President Trump's trade policies [1][2] - The upcoming week is expected to be shortened, following a quarter that started poorly but ended on a high note, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a steady investment approach [2] Company Insights - Constellation Brands is expected to report disappointing earnings, reflecting broader challenges in the consumer packaged goods sector [4] - The company faces headwinds from the rise of GLP-1 weight loss drugs and increasing consumer preference for cannabis, which are negatively impacting alcohol sales [4] - Constellation Brands' sales are particularly affected by Trump's immigration policies, as approximately half of its beer sales come from Hispanic consumers who are now spending less due to concerns over employment [4] Economic Indicators - The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index will be released, serving as a key indicator of the industrial economy's health, with potential implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [3] - Mortgage application figures are anticipated, which have been described as a significant burden on the economy [5] - The labor report set to be released on Thursday is critical; weak data could lead to renewed criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and raise the possibility of a rate cut in July [5]

Joining us now, Seth Carpenter, global chief economist at Morgan Stanley. Steve Leeman, uh, is also here, Steve. Um, welcome, Seth.Good to have you on. Let me just Let's I you know, I said immediately, wow, we got good reasons and bad reasons to cut. Yeah, there's a lot to get through here, Joe, and I think we're still seeing maybe some distortions from tariffs and some also some of the changes going on from the Trump administration.So, just to get to the income number, which Rick correctly raised, you know ...

US consumer spending declined in May by the most since the start of the year https://t.co/hSJlLE6F8w ...

US consumer spending declined in May by the most since the start of the year https://t.co/wuDir2JXg1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Carnival Corp reported strong fiscal second-quarter results, exceeding expectations, but shares traded lower amid a challenging market environment [1][2]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $31 to $33, citing significantly better-than-expected results and conservative guidance [2]. - Stifel analyst Steven M. Wieczynski reaffirmed a Buy rating and increased the price target from $33 to $34, noting gross and net revenues of $6.3 billion and $4.9 billion, respectively, which surpassed consensus estimates [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Guidance - Carnival's management raised full-year guidance for adjusted earnings from $1.83 per share to $1.97 per share and for adjusted EBITDA from $6.7 billion to $6.9 billion [4]. - The company indicated that 2026 bookings are approaching record levels, which may alleviate investor concerns regarding cruise demand [5]. Group 3: Market Context and Strategic Positioning - Despite a murky macro and geopolitical environment, Carnival's local European exposure and focus on drive-to/shorter itineraries from the U.S. provide a buffer against potential headwinds [3]. - Analysts highlighted the significant free cash flow generation currently being produced, which will assist in deleveraging Carnival's balance sheet [5].

Visa CEO Ryan McInerney said Tuesday that despite bleak sentiment data and a pullback in sectors like travel, U.S. consumer spending remains overall strong. ...

I want to get your reaction to not only the US stock futures but also the oil market considering what we saw from the president if you go on social media of course. Uh the president posting about the potential for regime change over in Iran saying it's not politically correct but basically uh positing whether or not that might be the right decision there. Surprised that we're seeing such a muted reaction again in equities and in oil after this? It is. I was talking to people over the weekend and I was like, ...