And right now we are 2 minutes away from the end of the trading day. Romaine Bostick alongside Katie Greifeld, taking you through to that closing bell with a global simulcast. It starts now.Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec joined us from the radio booth. Welcome to our audiences across all of our Bloomberg platforms, including our partnership with YouTube. A very consequential day in markets on a very consequential week.A big focus on earnings, a big focus on geopolitics in Washington, and of course, a big focus ...

Home Depot cut its full-year earnings guidance, warning that some unsteady consumers are hitting the pause button on big-ticket home purchases https://t.co/RPRc5tWhQy ...

Retail giants like Walmart, Home Depot, and Target, as you can see there, are scheduled to report their earnings throughout the course of the week as investors continue to gauge the state of the consumer. Our next guest says the outlook is bleak going into the holiday season as rising inflation weighs on the consumer health with lowincome consumers getting squeezed the absolute most. For more, let's bring in Jihan Ma, the senior analyst over at Bernstein, who covers many of these uh retailers.Jihan, thank y ...

Economic Overview - The recent government shutdown has created a significant data gap, complicating economic assessments and Federal Reserve decisions [1][2][10][11] - The return of government workers is expected to lead to a flood of economic data, which is crucial for market and policy analysis [2][12] Employment - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report is a key indicator of the labor market and household earnings, essential for forecasting economic activity [3] - The August jobs report indicated job gains fell to 22,000, missing the consensus of 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [6] - The labor market's stability is under scrutiny, especially with rising unemployment risks highlighted by the Federal Reserve [6] Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a critical measure of price stability, with the latest report showing a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, driven by energy costs, while Core CPI also cooled to 3.0% [4][7] - The Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions is hindered by the lack of recent CPI data, particularly as inflation pressures may be easing [7][10] Retail Sales - Retail sales data is vital as consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the economy, with retail sales representing nearly one-third of that [5] - August retail sales exceeded expectations, rising 0.6% month-over-month, indicating underlying consumer momentum despite concerns over rising credit card debt and dwindling savings [7] Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - GDP is a key quarterly indicator of economic activity, with the second quarter showing a real GDP increase at an annual rate of 3.8%, surpassing the forecast of 3.3% [8][14] - The upcoming third-quarter GDP estimate will provide insights into economic momentum prior to the shutdown [14] Private Data Insights - Despite the shutdown, private data collection continued, suggesting a weak economic forecast, which may impact the interpretation of upcoming reports [9] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent decisions have been made without complete data, leading to a reactionary stance rather than a proactive approach [10][12] - The delay in data reporting increases the risk of policy errors as the Fed navigates a complex economic landscape [12]

Market Outlook - The market is currently experiencing weakness due to reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, but it does not necessarily need this cut to maintain momentum [2][3] - There is an optimistic outlook for profit cycles extending through 2026, supported by easier financial conditions and increased liquidity [3] Key Investment Areas - Significant capital expenditure (capex) is being observed, particularly in artificial intelligence and broader digital infrastructure, indicating potential for growth beyond just AI [4] - Consumer spending remains healthy, with notable contributions from the baby boomer demographic in sectors like travel, leisure, and entertainment, which is helping to mask weaknesses at the lower end of the market [4][5] Profit Momentum - Profit momentum is critical, especially for small-cap companies, and is expected to improve as the market moves into 2026 [8][9] - The current market environment presents opportunities to capitalize on weaknesses, as there is no fundamental news driving the downturn [6][9] International Investments - The company maintains a neutral stance on international investments, having closed out underweight positions earlier in the year, and is riding the momentum in both developed and emerging markets [12] - Growth is slowing in Europe and the UK, while Japan is showing signs of recovery, indicating a mixed international investment landscape [12][13]

Bank of America Institute has released the consumer checkpoint for November. Debit and credit spending saw its strongest gain since early 2024 at 2.4%. Joining us right now to break it all down is Bank of America Institutees Liz Everett Chrisberg.And Liz, thanks for coming in this morning. >> Of course. >> Uh just to remind people this is coming from information on how many different accounts we often we we're missing government data right now, but in a lot of ways you've got a broader data set than what th ...

Core Insights - Inflation is affecting a wide range of income groups, with households earning six figures also feeling financial pressure [1][3] - A significant portion of consumers are adjusting their spending habits due to rising costs, with nearly 90% reporting an impact on their spending [2][3] Spending Adjustments - Nearly 30% of respondents have cut back on nonessential items, while around 20% are utilizing coupons, sales, and discounts to save money [2] - The primary areas of concern for consumers include groceries (46%), gasoline (13%), and dining out (9%) [3][4] Economic Outlook - The economic sentiment is mixed, with 40% of respondents feeling optimistic, 38% pessimistic, and 22% neutral about the economy [6] - Despite inflation concerns, 41% of respondents feel their financial situation is unchanged from six months ago, and 35% report feeling better [6] Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer spending remains robust, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increasing by 2.7% year-over-year as of August 2025 [7]

Holiday Spending Trends - Conference Board expects overall holiday spending to be slightly down, differing from NRF's narrower focus on retail [2] - Spending decrease is concentrated among younger, cash-strapped consumers [2] - Younger consumers plan to spend in November due to deals, impacting retail margins [3][4] Consumer Sentiment and Economic Factors - Consumer confidence index has been relatively stable, awaiting inflation relief and trade deal progress [5][6] - Jobs are stable and wages are rising, providing consumers with cash despite high debt levels [6] - Consumers will be selective in their purchases [7] Inflation and Travel - Tariffs are projected to impact inflation by approximately 50 basis points in the latter part of the year [11] - 70% of consumers are avoiding travel, similar to last year, due to inflation and travel difficulties [11] - Easing travel restrictions could lead to increased spending [12] Consumer Behavior - Consumers may spend more than surveys indicate if they have cash or access to debt [9] - A spending bump is expected in January when sales begin [10]

Joining me for more is Steve Oddland, president and CEO of the conference board. Steve, it's good to speak with you and that that stat takes me by surprise, especially given the NRF stat we saw where they suggested we could see the first trillion dollar Christmas or holiday season. Um, what are you seeing in your data and why.>> Yeah, well, the NRF stat is a little narrower than ours. Ours is all holiday spending on travel, on clothes, on parties, on food, the whole thing. And and it's expected to be down a ...

All right, pretty nice day. Uh, at least for the Dow, up 370 as you saw. And Stephanie Link, let's get to these moves.The Linkster looked at Starbucks down 26% from its March high and said, "I want some lattes." >> Yes, >> you bought it. >> A little caffeine for the portfolio. >> Okay.So when Brian Nickel was announced to be the new CEO from Chipotle to this company, the stock went up 49%. It has roundt. It's given it all back.And we know what Brian Nickel did at Chipotle. Stock when he was at there went up ...