Group 1 - The job market is showing signs of weakness, prompting expectations for a series of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, starting next week [1][3] - Economists surveyed predict a median of two rate cuts by the end of the year, with over 40% anticipating three cuts [2] - Investors are increasingly leaning towards the scenario of three rate cuts this year, with nearly 90% expecting a shift in the Fed's post-meeting statement to focus on labor-market risks [3] Group 2 - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, and recent data indicates a significant slowdown in hiring, challenging previous views of a solid labor market [5] - Chair Jerome Powell indicated the possibility of a rate cut due to a "shifting balance of risks" that could lead to rising unemployment [6] - By June 2026, the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate is expected to be 3.5%, a full percentage point lower than the current rate [7] Group 3 - Economists anticipate a divided Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next week, with potential dissents regarding the anticipated quarter-point cut [8]

Applications for US unemployment benefits jumped last week to the highest level in almost four years, indicating firings may be on the rise: Here’s your Evening Briefing https://t.co/ZnOTqotgBz ...

Key Points Investors are expecting unemployment data to force the Fed to cut interest rates next week, despite hotter-than-expected inflation. The Federal Reserve faces a tough balancing act with inflation still nearly a percentage point above its 2% target while jobless claims have hit their highest level since October 2021. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) climbed higher on Thursday, finishing the day up 6%. The spike came as the S&P 500 ga ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, and Nasdaq 100 all reached new all-time highs, supported by the August CPI report and a rise in weekly jobless claims [2][3] - The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 5-month low of 3.99%, influenced by the weaker labor market data [3][6] Economic Indicators - US weekly initial unemployment claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, marking a 3.75-year high, contrary to expectations of a decline [3] - August CPI increased to 2.9% year-over-year, aligning with expectations, while CPI excluding food and energy remained at 3.1% [3] Federal Reserve Expectations - Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17, with a 12% chance of a 50 basis point cut [4] - An overall reduction of 73 basis points in the federal funds rate is anticipated by year-end, bringing it down to 3.60% from the current 4.33% [4][6] International Markets - European and Asian stock markets are also experiencing gains, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.47%, Shanghai Composite up 1.65%, and Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 reaching a new all-time high [5] Company Movements - Micron Technology's stock rose over 9% after Citigroup raised its price target to $175 from $150 [11] - Home builders and suppliers saw gains due to lower mortgage rates, with Builders FirstSource up more than 5% [12] - Centene's stock increased over 12% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $1.75, exceeding consensus expectations [12] - Red Cat Holdings surged over 25% following the approval of its Black Widow system for NATO [13] - Avidity Biosciences' stock fell over 19% after announcing a $500 million public offering [15]

Company Highlights - Centene (CNC) shares increased after the company reaffirmed its guidance, which was above analysts' estimates [2][4] - Micron Technology (MU) saw its shares rise following Citi's price target increase from $150 to $175, driven by rising demand for DRAM chips and AI products [2] - Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) shares surged after announcing a new CEO, reinstating co-founders on the board, and securing a $40 million investment [2] - Oxford Industries (OXM) shares advanced as the parent company of Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer, and Johnny Was exceeded earnings estimates and expressed optimism about current-quarter sales despite new U.S. tariffs [3] - Netflix (NFLX) shares declined following the resignation of Chief Product Officer Eunice Kim, who played a key role in combating password sharing [4] - Oracle (ORCL) shares experienced a sell-off after a significant 36% increase the previous day, making it the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 [3][4] Market Overview - U.S. equities showed gains at midday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs, supported by positive inflation and unemployment reports that bolstered confidence in a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1][4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by more than 1% [1]

Group 1 - The number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. reached 263,000 for the week ending September 6, marking an increase of 27,000 from the previous week and the highest level since October 2021 [2][4] - The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 240,500, which is 9,750 higher than the previous week's average of 230,750 [2][3] - The increase in claims suggests a softening labor market, as the reported figure exceeded economists' expectations of 235,000 [3][4] Group 2 - The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.3%, with the number of insured unemployed individuals at 1,939,000 [4] - The four-week moving average of insured unemployment decreased slightly to 1,945,750, down by 750 from the previous week's average [5] - Tennessee reported the largest increase in initial claims, attributing it to layoffs in the manufacturing sector, while other states like New York and Illinois also cited layoffs in various industries [5][6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's survey indicated that the mean probability of a higher unemployment rate in one year increased to 39%, up from 37% in July [7]

ToplineInflation worsened as expected in August as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continued to raise consumer prices, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the last economic report under consideration by the Federal Reserve as it considers interest rate cuts next week. The Federal Reserve meets next week to decide whether to lower interest rates for the first time since December.AFP via Getty ImagesKey FactsConsumer prices increased 2.9% last month from August 2024 and 0.4 ...

Applications for US unemployment benefits jumped last week to the highest level in almost four years, indicating layoff activity may be on the rise amid a sharp slowdown in hiring https://t.co/9qOBWHdVLg ...

Economic Indicators - Consumer prices increased by 0.4% in August, which is double the increase from the previous month, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 2.9% [1] - The core consumer price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% in August, maintaining a 12-month figure of 3.1%, aligning with forecasts [2] Employment Data - Weekly unemployment compensation filings unexpectedly rose to a seasonally adjusted 263,000, surpassing the estimated 235,000, and increasing by 27,000 from the previous period [2]

RT Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien)It’s been five days since the August jobs report dropped, and I’ve gone through at least 20 takes. The narratives are all over the place, making it hard to separate signal from noise.Here’s what actually matters:Unemployment keeps grinding higher, exactly as our lead indicators and GMI/MIT work flagged back in Q1. That keeps the Fed engaged.At the same time, the earliest signs of a cyclical recovery in employment are already showing up in the data.Our GMI Early Workforce ...