Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies in the automotive sector, indicating a positive outlook for their future performance [2][12][13]. Core Insights - In July, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 54%, marking a new high for the year, with expectations for stable growth in the automotive market in August [1][5]. - The retail sales of passenger vehicles in July were 1.826 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.3% but a month-on-month decline of 12.4% [5]. - The cumulative retail sales for the first seven months of 2025 reached 12.728 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [5]. - Domestic brands outperformed the overall industry, with retail sales of 1.21 million units in July, a year-on-year increase of 14% [5]. - The report highlights that NEV retail sales in July were 987,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 12% [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive market entered a sales lull in July, with a slight decline in month-on-month sales but maintained year-on-year growth due to trade-in programs [5]. - The market share of domestic brands increased to 65.9%, while mainstream joint venture brands saw a decline in retail sales [5]. New Energy Vehicles - The NEV penetration rate for the first seven months of 2025 was 50.7%, with July's rate at 54%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The report notes that the export of NEVs maintained a strong growth trend, with July exports totaling 213,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 120.4% [5]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the upcoming launch of several new models, including Li Auto's i6 and the new XPeng P7, will enhance market supply and drive retail sales recovery [5]. - Companies to watch include BYD, XPeng Motors, and Geely, all rated as "Buy" due to their potential for growth and market performance [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation as traditional fuel vehicles face increasing competition from electric vehicles (EVs), leading to a decline in the market share and resale value of fuel vehicles [4][5][10]. Market Trends - In July, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China's passenger car market reached 54.0%, a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points. Cumulatively, 6.455 million NEVs were sold in the first seven months of the year, representing a 29.5% year-on-year growth [4][16]. - The second-hand fuel vehicle market is experiencing downward pressure on prices, with average inventory cycles extending to 43 days and 35.6% of businesses facing cycles over 30 days, indicating increased operational pressure [5][21]. Resale Value Decline - The resale value of previously high-value brands like Toyota and Honda is declining, with the three-year resale value for Toyota dropping to 56.6% from 83.24% in 2021, and Honda to 57% from 78.19% [10][13]. - Specific examples include a two-year-old Toyota Camry priced at 12.96 million yuan, reflecting a 65% resale value, down from higher values in previous years [6][8]. Shift to New Energy Vehicles - The second-hand market for NEVs is growing, with penetration rates rising from 8% to 9.9% in recent months, indicating a shift in consumer preference [16][18]. - Some second-hand car dealers are increasingly focusing on selling NEVs to compensate for the declining profits and sales of fuel vehicles [5][20]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are showing a preference for NEVs, with many second-hand car dealers reporting that the inventory of NEVs is now greater than that of fuel vehicles [18][20]. - Despite the growth of NEVs, fuel vehicles still maintain a significant market presence, with many consumers still willing to purchase them if priced competitively [21].

Core Insights - The Chinese passenger car market has shown strong growth in the first seven months of 2023, with retail sales reaching 12.728 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [1][2] - In July, retail sales were 1.826 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% but a month-on-month decline of 12.4% [1][2] - The growth in the market is attributed to the enhanced support from the "Two New" policy subsidies, leading to an upward revision of sales expectations for the year [2][3] Passenger Car Sales Breakdown - In July, the breakdown of sales included 836,000 sedans, 89,000 MPVs, and 901,000 SUVs, contributing to a total of 1.826 million units sold [2] - Cumulatively, from January to July, the sales figures were 5.870 million sedans, 598,000 MPVs, and 6.260 million SUVs, totaling 12.728 million units [2] - The year-on-year growth rates for sedans, MPVs, and SUVs were 10.1%, 6.0%, and 10.5% respectively [2] New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Market - The NEV market has been a significant driver of growth, with July retail sales reaching 987,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12% and a penetration rate of 54% [3][4] - Domestic brands accounted for 70% of the NEV retail market share, while Tesla's share fell to 4.1%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points [3][6] - The top three NEV manufacturers in July were BYD, Geely, and Changan, with sales of 274,600, 121,400, and 55,700 units respectively [5][4] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The overall market is expected to maintain a stable trajectory in August, influenced by the "sales determine production" strategy [7][8] - The joint venture brands have shown signs of recovery, with retail sales in July reaching 450,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1% [7] - The luxury car segment continues to face challenges, with a 20% year-on-year decline in retail sales in July [7] - The export of passenger cars reached 475,000 units in July, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with domestic brands accounting for 415,000 units [8]

Core Insights - Honda reported a significant decline in net profit for Q1 of FY2026, with a net profit of 196.67 billion yen, down 50.2% year-on-year [2] - The company attributed the profit drop primarily to a 27.5% tariff on automobile imports in the U.S., which reduced operating profit by approximately 125 billion yen for the quarter [2] - Despite the sharp decline in net profit, Honda raised its full-year operating profit forecast from 500 billion yen to 700 billion yen [2] Financial Performance - Sales revenue for Q1 FY2026 was 5.34 trillion yen, a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year [2] - Operating profit for the same period was 244.17 billion yen, reflecting a 49.6% year-on-year decline [2] - The company expects a total annual profit reduction of 450 billion yen due to tariffs [2] Market Performance - Honda's global retail sales forecast for FY2026 remains unchanged at 3.62 million units [2] - In 2024, Honda's global sales fell to 3.807 million units, a decrease of 4.6% year-on-year [3] - In the Chinese market, Honda's sales dropped to 852,000 units, down 30.9% year-on-year, marking the first time since 2015 that annual sales fell below one million units [3] - For the first half of the year, Honda's sales in China were 315,200 units, a decline of over 24% year-on-year [3]

具体来看，在2025年6月的国内零售市场中，自主品牌新能源车的渗透率为75.4%，豪华品牌为30.3%， 而主流合资品牌的新能源车渗透率则相对较低，仅为5.3%。这显示出自主品牌在新能源领域的市场份 额显著高于其他类别品牌。 展望未来，中国汽车工程研究院股份有限公司政研咨询中心副总工程师朱云尧预测，到2025年，新能源 汽车的渗透率将达到50%左右;到2030年，这一比例将上升至70%-75%;而到2035年，预计新能源汽车的 渗透率将达到85%-90%。 中国机械工业联合会提供的数据显示，2025年上半年，中国新能源汽车市场的渗透率达到了44.3%，这 一数字创下了同期的历史新高。此外，据乘用车市场信息联席会的数据表明，截至2025年6月，新能源 汽车在国内总体乘用车零售市场的渗透率为53.3%，相比去年同期提高了4.8个百分点。 乘联分会还预测，2025年7月全国狭义乘用车零售总量预计约为185万辆，较去年同期增长7.6%，但环 比下降了11.2%。其中，新能源车型的零售量预计可达约101万辆，其渗透率预计将进一步提升至 54.6%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the 30th week of this year (July 21 - July 27), domestic new energy passenger vehicle retail sales reached 239,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, with a new energy penetration rate of 53.8%. Since the beginning of the year, cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles have reached 6.16 million units, a year - on - year increase of 27.7%, and the cumulative new energy penetration rate is 50.9% [1][117]. - From July 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger vehicle market were 789,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 15% compared to the same period in July last year, and a 17% decrease compared to the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 54.6%. Since the beginning of the year, cumulative retail sales have reached 6.258 million units, a year - on - year increase of 31%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles from national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 816,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 17% compared to the same period in July last year, and a 20% decrease compared to the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 54.2%. Since the beginning of the year, cumulative wholesale volume has reached 7.264 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35% [1][118]. - In terms of vehicle manufacturers' July delivery volume, Leapmotor and XPeng broke monthly records, and the sales data of Hongmeng Zhixing (AITO) was also relatively good. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that it will consolidate the comprehensive governance results of the "involution - style" competition in the new energy vehicle industry and strengthen the management of new energy vehicle power battery recycling [2][118]. - Globally, in June, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 13.3% year - on - year to 1.483 million units. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase was 27.0% to 7.813 million units. The new energy penetration rate in June was 27.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 percentage points. The European new energy market has clearly recovered this year due to last year's low growth and the introduction of subsidy policies this year. The US automobile market has been affected by import vehicle tariffs. Vehicle sales increased significantly in March and April, but have turned negative year - on - year since May and June. The electrification trend has reversed. In June, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 119,000 units (a year - on - year decrease of 9.0%), and the penetration rate has remained in the 10% range for a long time [2][119]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Target Tracking - The report shows the weekly price changes of relevant sectors and listed companies, including BYD, SERES, Great Wall Motor, SAIC Motor, etc., and provides their closing prices and weekly price change percentages [12][15]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Tracking 3.2.1 China New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Sales and Exports in the Chinese Market**: It includes charts of China's new energy vehicle sales (seasonal), penetration rate, domestic sales (seasonal), exports (seasonal), and sales of EV and PHV models, with data sources from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and Marklines [16][21][23]. - **Inventory Changes in the Chinese Market**: There are charts of monthly new inventory in new energy passenger vehicle channels and manufacturers, with data from the East - Securities Derivatives Research Institute [24][25]. - **Delivery Volume of Chinese New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers**: Charts show the monthly delivery volumes of Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, NIO, ZEEKR, AION, VOYAH, and Deepal, with data from company announcements [27][28][32]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Global Market**: Charts present global new energy vehicle sales (by region), penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV models, with data from Marklines [39][40][43]. - **European Market**: It includes charts of European new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV models in the UK, Germany, and France, with data from Marklines [44][45][49]. - **North American Market**: Charts show North American new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV models, with data from Marklines [56][57][58]. - **Other Regions**: Charts display new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV models in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, etc., with data from Marklines [59][60][63]. 3.2.3 Power Battery Industry Chain - It includes charts of power battery installation volume (by material), export volume (by material), weekly average price of power battery cells, cell material cost,开工 rates and prices of ternary materials, ternary precursors, lithium iron phosphate, etc., with data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, SMM, and Shanghai Steel Union [75][77][81]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - Charts show the daily prices of rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum, with data from Shanghai Steel Union, Longzhong Information, and Wind [99][100][102]. 3.3 Hot News Summaries 3.3.1 China: Policy Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has completed the allocation of the third batch of 69 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones in the third quarter of this year. The fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be allocated in October [105]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will strengthen the management of new energy vehicle power battery recycling and consolidate the comprehensive governance results of the "involution - style" competition in the new energy vehicle industry [105]. 3.3.2 China: Industry Dynamics - From July 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger vehicle market increased by 15% year - on - year, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year increased by 31% year - on - year. It is estimated that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July will be about 1.01 million units [106][107][108]. - In the 30th week (July 21 - July 27), the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 239,000 units, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 6.16 million units, a year - on - year increase of 27.7% [108]. 3.3.3 China: Enterprise Dynamics - Changan Automobile's indirect controlling shareholder will change to China Changan Automobile [108]. - VOYAH Automobile acquired the Wuhan Yunfeng Factory for 723 million yuan [109]. - Leapmotor delivered 50,129 vehicles in July, a year - on - year increase of over 126%, and its monthly sales exceeded 50,000 for the first time [110]. - XPeng delivered 36,717 vehicles in July, a year - on - year increase of 229%, setting a new monthly delivery record [110]. - Li Auto delivered 30,731 vehicles in July, a year - on - year decrease of 39.7%, and launched its first pure - electric SUV, the Li i8 [111]. - NIO delivered 21,017 vehicles in July, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%, and launched the new large - sized pure - electric SUV, the LeDao L90 [111]. - Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 47,752 vehicles in July [113]. 3.3.4 Overseas: Policy Dynamics - The US will impose a 15% tariff on the EU and South Korea and extend the tariff agreement with Mexico for 90 days [113]. 3.3.5 Overseas: Industry Dynamics - In June, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 13.3% year - on - year to 1.483 million units. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase was 27.0% to 7.813 million units [114]. 3.3.6 Overseas: Enterprise Dynamics - Stellantis' adjusted operating profit in the first half of the year decreased by 94%. Its inventory at the end of June was 1.2 million vehicles, including 298,000 vehicles in the manufacturer's inventory [114][115][116]. - Mercedes - Benz's adjusted EBIT in the second quarter decreased by 50.9%, and in the first half of the year, it decreased by 40.7%. Its car and van sales also showed a downward trend [116]. 3.4 Industry Views The content is consistent with the core views of the report, emphasizing the sales situation of new energy vehicles in China and globally, the performance of vehicle manufacturers, and the development trends of the European and US markets [117][118][119]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - The penetration rate of the Chinese new energy vehicle market exceeded 30% in 2023 and 50% since 2024. In 2025, high - competitiveness new car products are continuously being launched, and price wars are gradually being halted. - Due to severe trade protectionism in Europe and the US, which poses risks to exports, attention should be paid to new growth points such as Belt and Road countries and the Middle East. - In terms of the competitive landscape, domestic brands' market shares continue to expand. Attention should be paid to enterprises with strong product capabilities, smooth overseas expansion, and stable supply [3][120].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry [14]. Core Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the passenger car market has slowed down since 2025, with a focus on opportunities for growth in the second half of the year due to key new vehicle launches [5][12]. - The total market volume from January to May 2025 reached 8.48 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with a NEV penetration rate of 49.5%, up 2.5 percentage points from 2024 [8][26]. Summary by Relevant Sections Low-End Market (Below 80,000 Yuan) - The low-end market saw a total volume of 930,000 units from January to May 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 68%, with a NEV penetration rate nearing 75% [9][33]. - The market's small scale and high penetration base limit its contribution to the overall market's NEV penetration rate [9][33]. Mid-Range Market (80,000 to 250,000 Yuan) - The mid-range market had a total volume of 5.25 million units from January to May 2025, showing a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year, with a NEV penetration rate of 43.0%, up 1.6 percentage points from 2024 [10][53]. - The decline in NEV penetration rate is attributed to price reductions by joint venture brands, which have affected the market dynamics [10][57]. High-End Market (Above 250,000 Yuan) - The high-end market recorded a total volume of 2.06 million units from January to May 2025, a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, with a NEV penetration rate of 53.3%, up 2.0 percentage points from 2024 [11][59]. - The slowdown in NEV penetration is due to price reductions among luxury brands and the maturity of popular models from domestic brands, with significant new vehicle launches expected in the second half of the year [11][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong intelligent driving vehicles as a key opportunity in the new cycle of the automotive industry [12]. - It also highlights the potential for leading manufacturers that have seen their market share drop due to joint venture price cuts [12]. - Additionally, there is optimism regarding structural growth in NEV exports despite a general slowdown in overall export growth [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles in July are expected to reach approximately 1.85 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6% but a month-on-month decline of 11.2% [1] - The top manufacturers, which account for about 80% of the total market, have set retail targets for this month that show a year-on-year increase of 6% compared to July of the previous year, but a decrease of about 10% compared to the previous month [1] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles are projected to reach around 1.01 million units, with a penetration rate expected to rise to 54.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new energy light commercial vehicle (NE LCV) market in China has shown a fluctuating trend in sales, with a cumulative growth of 14% in the first five months of 2025, indicating a strong recovery and potential for continued growth in the sector [1][11]. Market Performance - In June 2025, the NE LCV market sold 24,300 units, representing a month-on-month increase of 1% and a year-on-year increase of 10% [4][6]. - The sales trend for NE LCVs in the first half of 2025 has been characterized by alternating months of growth and decline, culminating in a total of 120,700 units sold, which is a 14% increase compared to the same period last year [11][25]. Market Penetration - The NE LCV market has achieved a penetration rate exceeding 60% in three out of the first five months of 2025, highlighting its position as the segment with the highest penetration of new energy vehicles in the commercial vehicle market [1]. Regional Insights - In the first half of 2025, all 31 provincial-level administrative regions in mainland China recorded NE LCV registrations, with Guangdong province leading with over 22,500 units, accounting for 18.68% of the national total [13][15]. Company Performance - In June 2025, Wuling maintained its position as the monthly sales champion with over 5,000 units sold, followed by Yuancheng and Changan, which also showed significant growth [19][23]. - The market share of Wuling and Yuancheng exceeded 10% in June, with Wuling holding 21.98% and Yuancheng 17.33% [23][29]. Sales Rankings - The cumulative sales rankings for NE LCVs in the first half of 2025 show that Wuling, Yuancheng, and Changan are the top three brands, with respective sales of 27,900 units, 20,700 units, and 15,100 units [27][29]. - The overall market performance indicates that most companies experienced growth, with significant increases noted for Wuling (92%), Jiangling (83%), and Guizhou Changjiang (73%) [27][29]. Future Outlook - The NE LCV market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with the potential for further increases in sales and market penetration as the year progresses [31].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund ICBC New Energy Vehicle Mixed A (005939) reported a profit of 31.36 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 2.23% and a fund size of 1.629 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [2][16]. Fund Performance - As of July 21, the fund's net value growth rates were 10.93% over the past three months, 5.32% over the past six months, 25.01% over the past year, and -32.09% over the past three years, ranking 76/171, 98/171, 62/166, and 62/126 respectively among comparable funds [3]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was -0.3009, ranking 71/120 among comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 52.18%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2021 at 30.07% [11]. Fund Strategy and Holdings - The fund manager indicated significant adjustments to the portfolio structure in the first half of the year, including avoiding segments with intense price competition, increasing allocation to upstream sectors, enhancing investment in new technology sectors, and focusing on globally competitive leading companies [2]. - As of June 30, the fund's average stock position over the past three years was 87.08%, with a peak of 93.58% at the end of H1 2025 and a low of 59.8% at the end of H1 2022 [14]. - The top ten holdings of the fund as of Q2 2025 included companies such as XianDao Intelligent, CATL, Yutong Bus, and others [20]. Market Outlook - The fund anticipates that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will reach 60% by 2025, with a projected compound annual growth rate of around 10% over the next three years [2]. - The overseas new energy vehicle market is still in its early stages, while China's new energy industry chain possesses significant global competitive advantages, suggesting substantial growth potential for leading companies [2].