摘要 ► 本 周数据： 2025 年 3 月第 1 周（ 3.3-3.9 ）乘用车销量 35.8 万辆，同比 +16.2% ，环比 -12.1% ；新能源乘用车销量 20.2 万辆，同比 +36.2% ，环比 -7.5% ；新能源渗透率 56.5% ，环比 +2.8pct 。 ► 本周行情 ： 汽车板块本周表现强于市场 本周（3月10-14日）A股汽车板块上涨1.38%，在申万子行业中排名第19位，表现强于沪深300（+1.33%）。细分板块中，摩托车及其他、汽车服务、商用 载客车、汽车零部件、乘用车分别上涨3.75%、2.03%、1.91%、1.61%、0.90%，商用载货车下跌0.79%。 ► 本周观点： 本月建议关注核心组合【比亚迪、吉利汽车、小鹏汽车、小米集团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ► 乘用车基本面向上 智驾平权提振估值。 根据乘用车上险数据，2月第3/4/5周乘用车销量分别33.9/37.0/40.7万辆，新能源渗透率分别50.6%/54.8%/53.8%；3月第1周乘用车销量35.8万辆，新能 源渗透率56.5%，受益补贴政策，年后车市需求及新能源渗透率均快速恢复。分 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the new energy vehicle battery box industry, driven by increasing penetration rates and supportive national policies [1]. Core Insights - The new energy vehicle battery box is a critical component of the battery pack, characterized by high customer barriers, continuous upgrades with battery integration technology, and a strong correlation with the new energy vehicle industry [1][7][10]. - The market for new energy vehicle battery boxes is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 76.59% from 2020 to 2024, increasing from 2.734 billion RMB to 26.586 billion RMB [27][28]. - The industry is transitioning towards lightweight and sustainable solutions, with innovations in battery integration technologies such as CTP and CTB expected to drive further growth [14][30]. Industry Definition - New energy vehicle battery boxes serve as the "skeleton" of the battery pack, requiring safety, protection, and sealing capabilities to ensure the normal operation of the battery system [2]. Industry Classification - The battery boxes can be classified based on battery system integration technologies into CTM, CTP, and CTC/CTB types [3][4][5][6]. Industry Characteristics - High customer barriers exist due to the need for collaboration among vehicle manufacturers, battery manufacturers, and battery box suppliers [7]. - The industry is closely linked to the new energy vehicle market, with market size directly correlated to the growth of new energy vehicles [10]. Development History - The market has evolved alongside the new energy vehicle industry, with significant growth observed post-2015 as CTP technology gained traction [11][13]. - The current phase emphasizes green and sustainable development, focusing on lightweight and environmentally friendly materials [14]. Industry Chain Analysis - The industry chain consists of upstream raw materials (aluminum alloys, carbon fiber composites), midstream manufacturing, and downstream applications primarily in electric and hybrid vehicles [15][25]. - Domestic companies dominate the market, leveraging local advantages to meet customer needs effectively [16]. Market Size - The market size is projected to grow from 27.34 billion RMB in 2020 to 265.86 billion RMB by 2024, with a CAGR of 76.59% [27]. - By 2029, the market is expected to reach 583.14 billion RMB, indicating sustained growth [27]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape features a tiered structure, with leading companies like Sensata Technologies, Huayu Automotive, and New Aluminum Era holding significant market shares [36][37]. - Traditional automotive parts manufacturers have quickly entered the battery box market, leveraging existing production capabilities and customer relationships [37]. Company Overview - New Aluminum Era focuses on lightweight aluminum materials for automotive applications, holding a strong position in the market with significant R&D investments [39][41]. - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with battery box revenue constituting a growing percentage of its total income [41].

Group 1 - The performance of China's new energy vehicles continues to improve, with a production increase of 38.7% in 2024, reaching 13.168 million units [6] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk stated that a 1000% profit growth in the next five years is possible, with a projected profit increase of 258% compared to other major tech companies [2] - Tesla's net profit reached $14.997 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 175.02% since its first profitable year in 2020 [2] Group 2 - Tesla's 2024 sales are projected to decline by 1.1% year-on-year, marking the first sales drop since 2013, with a significant 10% decrease in the U.S. market [3] - In January 2024, Tesla's sales in Europe fell by 45%, with Germany experiencing its lowest monthly sales since July 2021 [3] - Domestic competitors like BYD and Geely reported significant sales increases in February 2024, with BYD's sales surpassing 320,000 units, a 164% year-on-year growth [5] Group 3 - The automotive sector is experiencing widespread growth, with over 64 out of 150 automotive stocks reporting profit increases, and 14 companies turning losses into profits [6][7] - Notable profit forecasts include Guojin Automotive and Huguang Co., with expected net profit increases of over 1000% [7] - The overall trend indicates that the automotive industry will continue to see opportunities, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment and the expansion of domestic brands [7]