Gen Z consumers expect to reduce their spending by a staggering 34%, finds Deloitte’s “2025 Holiday Retail Survey.” Here's why: https://t.co/yptBzbU9L9 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on household balance sheet dynamics across Asian economies, particularly in relation to consumer spending trends in the region, including China and India [3][5]. Core Insights - **Household Debt and Consumer Spending**: The analysis suggests that household debt is not a primary constraint on consumer spending. Instead, sluggish wage growth and weak job creation are more significant factors affecting consumption [5][19][27]. - **Wage Growth**: Wage growth is identified as the key driver for consumer spending. The expectation is that a recovery in non-tech exports will improve wage growth and subsequently boost consumer spending [5][27][37]. - **China's Economic Conditions**: In China, retail sales growth has slowed to a year-to-date low of 3% year-on-year in September, influenced by fading effects from consumption trade-in programs and weak labor market conditions [29][34]. - **India's Household Debt**: India's household debt is not considered over-leveraged. The Reserve Bank of India's measure shows household debt at 42% of GDP, but when excluding business loans, it drops to 24% of GDP, indicating a healthier balance sheet [47][52]. Important Data Points - **Household Debt to GDP Ratios**: - China: 63% [41] - Malaysia: 85% [21] - India: 24% (excluding business loans) [47] - Australia: 121% [79] - **Wage Growth Trends**: - China: 4.5% [7] - Asia ex-China: 3.1% [7] - India: 7.3% [7] Additional Insights - **Trade Tensions**: Trade tensions have negatively impacted non-tech exports, contributing to weak labor market conditions and consumption [5][27]. - **Property Market Influence**: In China, the decline in property prices has negatively affected household balance sheets, overshadowing any positive effects from equity market performance [32][33]. - **Future Expectations**: A turnaround in non-tech exports is anticipated to begin early next year, which is expected to improve labor market conditions and consumer spending [27][37][68]. Regional Analysis - **Emerging Markets (EM) Asia**: Countries like Indonesia and the Philippines have low household debt to GDP ratios, which do not constrain consumption. Malaysia shows stable household debt growth in line with nominal GDP [57]. - **Developed Markets (DM) Asia**: Japan's household debt to GDP has declined to a five-year low of 62%, with real wage growth being a significant constraint on consumption [58][59]. In Korea, while household debt growth has stabilized, weak real wage growth continues to dampen consumption [68]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes that while household balance sheets are stable across many Asian economies, the primary constraints on consumer spending are related to labor market dynamics and wage growth rather than debt levels. The expected recovery in non-tech exports could provide a much-needed boost to consumer confidence and spending in the coming months [5][27][37].

Summary of China Consumer Pulse Survey (October 2025) Industry Overview - The survey focuses on the consumer sentiment and spending outlook in China, particularly across different income groups and city tiers. Key Points Economic Outlook - 43% of surveyed households expect China's economy to remain stable over the next six months, an increase of 4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) [19][15] - The proportion of households concerned about job losses decreased by 8 percentage points QoQ to 36% [3][15] - Projected income growth for the next 12 months softened to 5.3%, down from 5.8%, primarily affecting lower-middle-income groups and residents of lower-tier cities [40][15] Consumer Spending Expectations - Consumer spending outlook remained stable, with 67% of consumers expecting flat spending, 22% anticipating an increase, and 11% predicting a decrease, resulting in a net score of 11%, unchanged from the previous quarter [61][15] - Net spending outlook improved in Tier 1 and 2 cities (net increase of 5% and 4% QoQ to 11% and 17%, respectively), while lower-tier cities saw a decline (net increase down 5% QoQ to 8%) [4][15] Spending by Category - Spending budgets for most categories remained stable, with increases in sports fashion, consumer electronics, and groceries, while freshly brewed drinks and collectibles saw slight declines [5][15] - Participation in trade-in programs dropped to 37% from 44% in the previous survey, with lower-income and younger consumers showing less interest [57][15] Investment Trends - Only 5% of surveyed households indicated increased stock holdings, significantly lower than 28% for wealth management products and 31% for gold. However, the ratio was higher among higher-income groups (19% for those earning ≥Rmb30,000/month) [6][15] - Stocks ranked as the fourth most popular investment, with 31% of consumers increasing their stock holdings this year compared to 26% who reduced them, yielding a net score of 5% [44][15] Housing Market Concerns - Only 15% of surveyed households have strong home purchase plans, with a net 42% of prospective buyers expecting prices to fall next year, up from 33% in the previous survey [7][15] - The willingness of home sellers to accept losses increased to 52%, down from 56% in July [7][15] Major Concerns for Consumers - Concerns about job loss and inflation eased, with both remaining top concerns for 36% of consumers [52][15] - The share of consumers unconcerned about any issues rose to 25%, up 10 percentage points [52][15] Travel and Lifestyle Changes - Travel intentions declined QoQ, except for same-day domestic trips, which remained flat. However, the shopping budget per traveler increased for two consecutive quarters [5][15] - Lifestyle upgrade intentions held steady at 18%, with more consumers expecting unchanged spending [74][15] Additional Insights - The survey was conducted from October 24-28, 2025, with 2,040 consumers across Tier 1 to Tier 4 cities, providing a comprehensive view of consumer sentiment in China [7][15]

Michael Bapis. I I'll hit you first here as we uh go towards the closure about two minutes, three minutes away or so. You say there's a lot of cautious optimism in markets.I'll give you there's like volatility came back last week, but do you you feel there's a lot of caution. Look, I think one of the key themes that we're looking at is the battle between, you know, consumer spending and consumer consumer sentiment being down and like you just said, strong equity markets. I mean, we're getting to more now wh ...

Consumer Spending - Consumer spending is a key topic of discussion [1] - Higher priced tickets are also being examined in relation to consumer behavior [1] Industry Analysis - Morgan Stanley's senior retail analyst provides insights [1]

Despite some growing consumer concerns, some signs of strength in CNBC's latest retail monitor report. For that, we'll turn to Steve Leeman this morning. Hi, Steve.Hey, Car. Yeah, consumer spending bounced back in October after a pretty sharp fall in September with gains in the CNBC NRF retail monitor across most sectors, adding up to a strong start for retail in the fourth quarter. That could be good for the holiday season.The retail monitor, we get actual credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions. ...

Consumer spending bounced back in October after a sharp fall in September with the gains in the CNBC NRF retail monitor across most sectors adding up to a a good and a strong start for retail in the fourth quarter. Here's the data. The retail monitor powered by actual credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions shows retail XO and gas up 06 compared with a 0.7% decline in September.The year rate though did edge down of 5% from 5.4%. We take out restaurants as well to get core retail that rose 06 also ...

CNBC and the National Retail Federation out with the latest retail monitor. Steve Leeman joins us right now with those details. Good morning, Steve. >> Morning, Becky.Consumer spending bounced back in October after a sharp fall in September with the gains in the CNBC NRF retail monitor across most sectors adding up to a a good and a strong start for retail in the fourth quarter. Here's the data. The retail monitor powered by actual credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions shows retail Xauto and gas ...

US import volumes are projected to slow through the year-end holidays and into 2026, as tariff uncertainty weighs on cargo owners and the outlook for consumer spending remains clouded https://t.co/OdhY0OLFv3 ...

Core Insights - The National Retail Federation anticipates a year-over-year increase in collective consumer spending of between 3.7% and 4.2% as the Christmas season approaches, indicating a potentially strong retail performance [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending Outlook - The expected increase in consumer spending could reflect broader global trends, suggesting that the retail sector may experience significant growth during the holiday season [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The positive spending forecast may influence various sectors, including e-commerce and traditional retail, as companies prepare for increased demand [1]