Core Viewpoint - Gold is poised for a weekly gain as investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut increase, influencing commodity prices and investor behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold futures are around $4,240, indicating a less than 1% increase this week, and are over $100 below the October record high [2]. - Year-to-date, gold has surged more than 60%, achieving over fifty all-time highs this year, making it a leading asset for 2025 [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs analysts maintain a bullish outlook for gold, projecting a price target of $4,900 by the end of next year [7]. Group 2: Market Influences - The expectation of a 25 basis point cut in the Federal Reserve's fund rate is pressuring the US dollar index, which in turn lifts commodity prices [2]. - As interest rates decline, gold typically rises as investors shift away from interest-yielding assets like bonds [2]. - Central banks continue to buy gold at above-average levels, contributing to sustained demand [4][6]. Group 3: Future Projections - The World Gold Council forecasts that gold prices could rise by 5% to 15% in 2026, potentially reaching up to $4,900 per troy ounce [5]. - Continued strategic buying by central banks and new investment entrants, such as insurance companies in China and pension funds in India, may further bolster gold's positive trend [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in response to recent weak U.S. jobs data [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision will be a focal point in the upcoming week [1] - There is a widespread expectation for an interest rate cut due to the latest employment figures [1]

What This Means For The Economy Inflation is still higher than the Federal Reserve's target, but the downtick in annual inflation in September takes some pressure off the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer. Friday's inflation report could pave the way for a Fed rate cut next week, which was already widely expected. The report is especially significant because the Federal Reserve uses PCE core inflation as its benchmark for whether inflation is running at its target of a 2% annual rate—it hasn't be ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates on December 18th or 19th, contingent on no significant events occurring beforehand [1][2] - There is a likelihood of an increase in Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields due to the anticipated rate hike, making JGBs less attractive compared to other developed market bonds [3][4] - Concerns exist regarding the fiscal capacity in Japan deteriorating faster than in other regions, which could limit the ceiling on policy rates and contribute to unattractive yields [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is viewed as having a more significant impact on global markets compared to the BOJ, with current pricing indicating a dovish stance [7][10] - The Fed is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate increase, with a terminal rate projected at 3%, making it challenging to lower rates without substantial economic decline [8][9] - Upcoming Fed meetings are anticipated to provide new projections and insights, especially with a new Fed chair expected next year, indicating a potential shift in consensus [8][10]

Economic Indicators - Japan's household spending unexpectedly fell at the fastest rate in nearly two years in October, indicating the impact of inflation on consumer spending power [2] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached 1.94%, the highest since mid-2007, with a projected rise of 13.5 basis points for the week, marking the steepest increase since March [2] Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index dropped by 1.5%, erasing gains made earlier in the week, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell by 0.1% but was still set for a weekly gain of 0.5% [1] - A quarter-point rate hike from the Bank of Japan is now priced at 75%, following comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda about considering the implications of raising interest rates [4] Currency and Capital Flows - The Japanese yen remained stable at 155 per dollar, above its 10-month low of 157.9, reflecting shifting capital flows and changing market expectations [3] - Analysts noted that long-standing expectations regarding a permanently cheap yen are being challenged, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [3] Global Market Overview - In other markets, Australia's resource-heavy shares remained mostly unchanged, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index decreased by 0.5% and South Korea's shares increased by 0.7% [5] - The US dollar steadied after a nine-session decline, trading down 0.1% to 99 against major peers, and down 0.5% for the week [5] Upcoming Economic Data - The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for September is expected to show a 0.2% rise in the core measure, maintaining an annual rate of 2.9% [6] - The US non-farm payrolls report was not released, but jobless claims showed a significant drop, alleviating concerns about the labor market [7]

Market Performance - Market indexes were mostly flat, with the Dow down by 0.07%, S&P 500 up by 0.11%, and Nasdaq up by 0.22% [1] - The small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed, gaining 0.76% after bouncing off late Tuesday lows [1] Interest Rate Expectations - Anticipation of an interest rate cut next week, expected to lower rates to between 3.50-3.75%, the first time since September 2022 [2] - Weekly Jobless Claims data was better than expected, but did not deter investor sentiment regarding the Fed's upcoming decision [2] Earnings Reports - **Ulta Beauty (ULTA)**: Reported earnings of $5.14 per share, exceeding the $4.56 consensus, with revenues of $2.9 billion surpassing the $2.72 billion expectation, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 12.9% [3] - **DocuSign (DOCU)**: Earnings of $1.01 per share exceeded the expected $0.92, with revenues of $818.4 million above the $806.1 million consensus; however, stock declined due to competition from OpenAI's DocuGPT [4] - **Hewlett Packard Enterprises (HPE)**: Reported earnings of 62 cents per share, beating estimates by 3 cents, but revenues of $9.7 billion fell short of the $9.96 billion expectation, leading to a 7.6% drop in shares [5] Economic Indicators - The delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for September is expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.8%, up from 2.74% the previous month, with core PCE anticipated at 2.9% [6] - A significant upside surprise in PCE data could influence the Fed's decision on interest rates [7]

Economic Data and Market Reaction - The ADP data indicated a loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs in November, marking the largest decline in 2.5 years, which initially caused stocks to fall [2] - Following the weak employment data, stocks rebounded, with the Dow Jones up 0.96% at 47,928, S&P 500 rising 0.38% to 6,855, and NASDAQ gaining 0.26% to 23,468 by the close [2] - The weak ADP report has increased expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [2][6] Treasury Bonds - The weak ADP data led to a decline in Treasury yields across the curve, with the 30-year bond yielding 4.73% and the 10-year note at 4.06% [3] - Some analysts suggest that the Fed may not only cut rates next week but could also follow up with another cut in January [3] Energy Sector - Oil prices increased as reports indicated that a potential peace deal regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict was premature, with Brent Crude rising 0.61% to $62.83 and West Texas Intermediate up 0.84% to $59.13 [4] - Natural gas prices surged, closing at $5.00, a significant increase of 3.45%, with EQT Corp. identified as a favored stock in this sector [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices saw a slight increase, closing at $4,207, driven by dollar weakness and a report of central banks purchasing 53 tonnes of gold in October, the highest amount since 2025 [5] - Silver also continued to rise, last seen at $56.97 [5]

A "Now Hiring" sign is seen at a Chipotle location on Nov. 6, 2025 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.A sign at a NYS Department Of Labor job fair at the Downtown Central Library in Buffalo, New York, US, on Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2025.Lauren Petracca | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis is CNBC's Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox.Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:1. Silver linings playbookYesterday highlighted the relevanc ...

Core Viewpoint - Markets are experiencing gains following weak private jobs data, which has led to increased expectations for a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in its upcoming meeting [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - After initial weakness, markets have shown resilience, achieving gains for two consecutive days [1]. - The rally on Wednesday was driven by disappointing job data, with ADP reporting a loss of 32,000 jobs in November, significantly below the expected gain of 40,000 [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The weak job data has reinforced investor belief that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in its final meeting of the year on December 9-10 [2]. - While the current market rally may provide short-term benefits, ongoing job losses could indicate deeper economic issues, raising concerns about the sustainability of this rally [3].

The record-long 43-day U.S. government shutdown kept investors in the dark about official data and hampered the ability to gauge the Fed's likely path on interest rates. But the backlog is now being cleared along with data from non-governmental sources. The Institute for Supply Management said U.S. services activity was little changed in November at 52.6 versus 52.4 in October while the prices paid component dipped but remained elevated. The reading comes ahead of the delayed personal consumption expenditu ...