The FOMC at this week's meeting is not scheduled to release a Summary of Economic Projections, which contains the Fed's dot plot. That means the markets today will hear from Fed Chair Powell at his regular post-meeting press conference but will not receive an update from other Fed officials on their views of the future course of interest rates.The prospects of a more dovish Fed are another bullish factor for stocks. At the conclusion of today's 2-day FOMC meeting, the Fed is expected to cut the federal fund ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has reduced its key overnight interest rate to 2.25%, marking the lowest level since July 2022, and indicated that this may conclude its cutting cycle unless inflation and economic outlook change [1][2][3] Economic Growth Projections - The Bank of Canada revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.2% from an earlier estimate of 1.8%, and for 2026 down to 1.1%, with a recovery expected to 1.6% in 2027 [2] - The bank anticipates annualized growth of 0.5% in the third quarter and 1% in the fourth quarter [5] Inflation Management - The Bank aims to keep annual inflation anchored at 2%, the midpoint of its target range of 1% to 3%, with an expectation that inflation will average around 2% over the year [5] - Consumer prices are projected to average approximately 2.1% in 2026 [5] Economic Conditions - Canada's economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, with early indicators suggesting a potential near-contraction in the third quarter [4] - The current economic weakness is characterized as a structural transition rather than merely a cyclical downturn, limiting the effectiveness of monetary policy in stimulating demand while maintaining inflation targets [4] Trade Policy Impact - The Bank of Canada acknowledges that U.S. trade policy has been a significant factor affecting demand and costs for businesses, with the expectation that these forces will offset each other [3] - The range of possible economic outcomes remains wider than usual due to the unpredictability of U.S. trade policy [6] Currency and Market Reactions - Following the interest rate announcement, the Canadian dollar strengthened, trading up 0.22% to 1.3915 against the U.S. dollar [6] - Money markets currently do not anticipate any further rate cuts until March of the following year [6]

live. Kevin Hanks live at the CBOE with our prebell playbook. Um Kevin Hanks, I love it.I feel like we're doing a sports show, too. Um Nvidia here. We talk about yesterday it was Apple in the $4 trillion Cub, but Nvidia's got its own club.>> Yeah, exactly. So, we're looking at $5 trillion. I've done the math, Nicole.If you divide $5 trillion by 24 billion347 million shares, it comes out to $25.36% cents a share. That if my calculation is right and if all the numbers line up, uh that is what where Nvidia nee ...

The Fed find futures forward curve is not as clear cut this time around. The October futures contract shows an expected rate within the 4% to 4.25% range. The December futures contracts is indicating a more sizable rate cut. It’s pre-dawn Wednesday morning. Early this afternoon, the US Federal Open Market Committee (Fed, FOMC) 2-day meeting will conclude, culminating with an interest rate announcement from Chairman Jerome Powell at 14:00 (ET) and subsequent press conference (14:30). This leaves a ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% during its upcoming policy meeting, following a similar cut in September, marking the first reduction of the federal-funds rate this year [1][2]. Group 1 - The government shutdown has hindered the Fed's access to official economic reports, prompting officials to rely on private surveys, state data, and financial-market signals to inform their decisions [2]. - With a cooling job market and inflation remaining approximately one percentage point above the Fed's 2% target, officials are cautiously balancing their dual mandate, favoring a small pre-emptive rate cut in September to mitigate potential economic downturns [2][3]. - Investors are expected to focus on the tone of the Fed's press release and Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference, rather than the immediate policy decision, as they look for indications regarding the December meeting [3].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline after reaching a record high, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates further before the year ends [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold futures for December settled at $3,983.10 per ounce, marking a 0.9% decrease and a third consecutive session loss [3]. - Since the record high of $4,359.40 on October 20, gold prices have dropped nearly 9% [3]. - Despite the recent decline, gold is still trading approximately 3% higher this month and has gained nearly 51% year-to-date [3]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Ryan McIntyre from Sprott Inc. stated that gold remains well-positioned for long-term growth due to eroding global trust levels, which drive demand for independent assets [2]. - Aakash Doshi from State Street Investment Management described the recent decline in gold prices as temporary, suggesting a potential buying floor around $3,600 to $3,650 [4]. - Stefan Gleason from Money Metals Exchange noted that the expected interest rate cut by the Fed would support the pro-gold narrative, as lower rates benefit non-interest-yielding gold [5]. Group 3: Economic Context - The precarious fiscal outlook in Western economies, particularly the U.S. with high deficits and substantial federal debt, could support gold prices over the medium to long term as sovereign risk rises [2]. - Gleason emphasized that the world is overexposed to the U.S. dollar and underexposed to gold, predicting that gold prices will continue to rise in all fiat currencies after adjusting from recent fluctuations [6].

Core Viewpoint - Gold has experienced a significant selloff recently, and with the Federal Reserve likely to reduce benchmark interest rates, there may be a missed opportunity for investors to acquire gold at a lower price [1] Group 1 - The recent selloff in gold indicates a potential buying opportunity for investors [1] - The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates could influence gold prices positively in the near future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut short-term interest rates again on October 29, as inflation pressures ease and job growth weakens, despite ongoing government shutdown complicating economic data availability [1][2][12]. Economic Indicators - Inflation increased to 3% year-over-year in September, slightly up from 2.9% in August, but analysts believe the Fed will prioritize cooling labor market risks over persistent inflation [2][13]. - The Fed's benchmark short-term rate was previously cut to a range of 4% to 4.25% in September, with expectations for another quarter-point reduction [5][6]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with private U.S. employers shedding 32,000 jobs in September, raising concerns about potential job cuts by companies [6][14]. - Amazon has confirmed plans to cut about 14,000 corporate jobs, highlighting the growing pressure on the job market [7]. Consumer Impact - Lower interest rates are expected to stimulate the economy by making loans and credit more affordable, benefiting borrowers and homebuyers [9][11]. - A WalletHub survey indicated that over half of respondents feel another quarter-point cut would not significantly impact their lives, suggesting a disconnect between rate cuts and consumer sentiment [10]. Data Collection Challenges - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a data blackout, delaying the September jobs report and halting most data collection at the Bureau of Labor Statistics [12][16]. - The Fed is relying on alternative data sources, such as state-level unemployment claims, but acknowledges these are not as effective as traditional government data [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its key interest rate on Wednesday, potentially signaling another cut in December to support hiring and stimulate the economy [1] Interest Rate Cuts - A rate cut on Wednesday would mark the second reduction this year, aimed at lowering borrowing costs for consumers, particularly for mortgages and auto loans [1] - The average 30-year mortgage rate has decreased from 6.6% to approximately 6.2% since Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated potential rate cuts in late August, which may help the sluggish housing market [1] Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is navigating an unusual economic period, making future moves more difficult to predict than usual [1]

Market Overview - Stocks experienced a pullback after reaching record intraday highs, with the S&P 500 briefly dipping into negative territory before posting modest gains [1] - The Dow increased by 255.49 points (0.5%) to 47,800.08, the Nasdaq rose by 68.16 points (0.3%) to 23,705.62, and the S&P 500 gained 5.40 points (0.1%) to 6,880.56 [1] Economic Indicators - The early strength in the market was attributed to optimism regarding a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China, alongside a rare metals deal between the U.S. and Japan [2] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. showed a modest decline, with the Conference Board's consumer confidence index falling to 94.6 in October from 95.6 in September, below economists' expectations of 93.4 [5] Sector Performance - Steel stocks saw significant gains, with the NYSE Arca Steel Index rising by 1.8%, marking its best intraday level in over fifteen years [6] - Software stocks also performed well, reflected by a 1.3% increase in the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index [6] - Conversely, computer hardware stocks faced pressure, leading to a 2.0% decline in the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index [6] - Airline, utilities, and commercial real estate stocks exhibited notable weakness, which limited broader market gains [7] Upcoming Events - Traders are anticipating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement, with expectations of a quarter-point interest rate cut [3] - The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates an 87.9% chance of another quarter-point rate cut in December, while views on further cuts in early 2026 are mixed [4] - Major tech companies, including Alphabet, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Amazon, are set to report their quarterly results soon [4] Global Market Trends - In the Asia-Pacific region, stock markets mostly declined, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index down by 0.6% and China's Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.2% [8] - European markets showed mixed performance, with the French CAC 40 Index down by 0.2%, the German DAX Index stable, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index up by 0.7% [9] - In the bond market, treasuries showed modest strength, with the yield on the benchmark ten-year note decreasing by 1.4 basis points to 3.983% [9]