Workflow
ROE
icon
Search documents
复盘10年10倍的可口可乐:巴菲特最最看重的还是ROE,增长率却并不太重要!
雪球· 2025-03-05 08:19
Core Viewpoint - The article introduces a valuation parameter called "Market Earnings Ratio" (市赚率), defined as the ratio of Price-to-Earnings (PE) to Return on Equity (ROE), suggesting that a Market Earnings Ratio of 1 indicates a reasonable valuation, while values above or below indicate overvaluation or undervaluation respectively [2]. Group 1: Market Earnings Ratio - The formula for Market Earnings Ratio is PR = PE / ROE / 100, where a PR of 1 indicates a fair valuation [2]. - Historical examples from Buffett's investment in Coca-Cola show that the Market Earnings Ratio can guide investment decisions, with values of 0.474 and 0.326 observed in 1988 and 1989 respectively [2]. Group 2: Investment Returns and ROE - The article discusses the relationship between ROE and investment returns, stating that over a long period, ROE can approximate investment compounding, but this is a special case [4]. - It presents three hypothetical companies (A, B, C) with the same ROE but different dividend payout ratios, illustrating how dividend policies affect investment returns [4][5]. Group 3: High ROE and Low Growth - High ROE companies may not deserve high PE valuations if their growth rates are extremely low, as demonstrated through examples of companies D, E, and F with varying ROE and dividend policies [6][7]. - The article emphasizes that a 66.67% dividend payout ratio is a critical threshold where high ROE companies may start to underperform compared to low ROE companies [7][8]. Group 4: Coca-Cola Case Study - The investment in Coca-Cola from 1988 to 1998 yielded a tenfold return, with a net profit increase from 1.04 billion to 3.53 billion, showcasing that the growth rate was close to one-third of the average ROE during that period [10]. - The article suggests that the Market Earnings Ratio's requirement for net profit growth should ideally reach one-third of ROE for reasonable valuations [10]. Group 5: Industry Comparisons - The article compares the valuations of Midea and Gree, indicating that Midea's higher growth rate justifies its higher valuation, while Gree's lower growth leads to a lower valuation [10]. - It also discusses the future outlook for high-end liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai, suggesting that their profit growth may fall below one-third of ROE, which could be a concern for long-term investors [11].
银行业专题:浙江农信系统的改革和实践成效
Guoxin Securities· 2025-03-05 01:49
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The Zhejiang Rural Credit System has demonstrated significant reform and operational effectiveness, maintaining a strong focus on supporting agriculture and small enterprises, leading to a notable market presence in terms of deposits and loans [1][49] - The system's return on equity (ROE) consistently exceeds that of listed banks, indicating superior cyclical resilience despite a general decline in ROE across both sectors [2][50] - The growth in net profit for the Zhejiang Rural Credit System was 12.5% and 10.0% year-on-year for 2022 and 2023, respectively, driven primarily by rapid expansion and improved non-interest income [3][51] Summary by Sections Reform and Operational Effectiveness - The Zhejiang Rural Credit System has evolved since the establishment of the first rural credit cooperative in 1952, culminating in the formation of the Zhejiang Rural Commercial Bank in 2022, which serves as a model for national reform [1][49] - By the end of 2024, the system's total deposits and loans reached 4.78 trillion yuan and 3.78 trillion yuan, respectively, with market shares of 20.88% and 15.92% [20] Profitability Analysis - The high ROE of the Zhejiang Rural Credit System is attributed to a higher net interest margin compared to the industry, although this advantage has been narrowing due to increased competition from larger banks [2][50] - The system's non-interest income has improved, particularly from investment returns, which have helped offset the pressure from declining net interest margins [3][50] Growth Potential - The Zhejiang Rural Credit System has maintained a loan growth rate exceeding 15%, supported by a strong demand from small and micro enterprises in a robust regional economy [38] - The system's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.85% and a provision coverage ratio of 486.7% as of the end of 2024, indicating a solid risk management framework [20][47] Asset Quality - The system's non-performing loan ratio has remained low, benefiting from a favorable economic environment and effective risk management practices [44] - Despite a slight increase in non-performing loans due to economic pressures, the overall asset quality remains superior compared to national averages [44][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on high-dividend stocks in a low-interest-rate environment, recommending banks such as China Merchants Bank and Jiangsu Bank for long-term investment [53]