Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the author's investment journey in bank stocks over five years, highlighting the use of a unique metric called "市赚率" (Market Earnings Ratio) to identify undervalued stocks and make investment decisions [3][8]. Investment Strategy - The author developed the Market Earnings Ratio (PR) formula as PR = PE / ROE / 100, inspired by Warren Buffett's investment philosophy [3]. - The author adjusted the target price for H-shares from 1.0 PR to 0.8 PR due to liquidity and dividend yield concerns [3]. - A correction factor (N) was introduced based on dividend payout ratios, with different coefficients for varying payout levels [3]. Historical Performance - In 2020, the author successfully identified and invested in Postal Savings Bank H-shares, which were undervalued with a correction market earnings ratio of 0.4 PR [4]. - In 2021, after recognizing the high provision coverage of Postal Savings Bank, the author recalculated PE and ROE, leading to a significant increase in stock price [5]. - In 2022, after a management change, the author invested in China Merchants Bank H-shares, which also became undervalued [6]. - In 2023, China Merchants Bank H-shares saw a price doubling, but the author realized the mistake of considering high provisions as hidden profits, leading to a reevaluation of investment strategies [6]. Current Market Analysis - By 2024, the author decided to completely liquidate Postal Savings Bank H-shares and increased holdings in China Merchants Bank H-shares, reflecting a strategic shift based on market conditions [7]. - As of 2025, the average valuations for major banks were noted, with the author choosing to exit positions due to perceived overvaluation in the banking sector [8]. - The article emphasizes that the Market Earnings Ratio aligns with discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation principles, suggesting a potential upward adjustment in reasonable valuations due to low interest rates [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the Chinese liquor industry, particularly focusing on the performance of major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, and analyzes their valuation through the Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PR) model [2][9]. Group 1: PR Trends of Major Brands - The PR trends for Moutai, Wuliangye, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are presented, indicating significant fluctuations in their valuations over time [3][4][5][7]. - Moutai's PR reached a new low in June 2023, attributed to the continuous decline in the wholesale price of its flagship product, which has led to capital outflow [9]. Group 2: Valuation Comparison Analysis - The lowest PR values for Wuliangye, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao occurred in September 2024, coinciding with a market downturn, while Moutai's lowest was in June 2023 [9]. - Historical PR values show that the current PR levels for these brands are significantly higher than their historical lows, suggesting a potential mispricing in the past [10]. Group 3: Future Valuation Outlook - It is deemed unlikely that the liquor industry will revert to the valuation levels seen in 2013-2014 due to the maturation of market pricing mechanisms and the increasing sophistication of capital [11]. - The article emphasizes that using the PR model for investment implies a left-side buying strategy, which requires patience during periods of price decline [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that even with the same price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) to return on equity (ROE) ratio at the time of purchase, companies with higher ROE will outperform in the long run in the U.S. stock market [1][19]. Group 1: ROE and Market Performance - High ROE is indicative of a strong economic moat and a guarantee of higher returns over the long term [2]. - Apple's ROE was around 33% before 2018, but after that, its debt ratio increased, distorting ROE [2]. - Walmart's ROE is approximately 22%, while Coca-Cola's ROE ranges between 30% and 40% [2]. Group 2: Market Capitalization Growth - On June 19, 2020, Apple and Walmart had similar price-to-earnings ratios of 1.02 and 1.03, respectively [5]. - Over five years, Apple's market value grew by 130%, while Walmart's increased by 97% [7]. - On February 11, 2011, both Apple and Walmart had the same price-to-earnings ratio of 0.56 [8]. - Over fourteen years, Apple's market value increased by 8 times, compared to Walmart's 3 times [9]. Group 3: Comparison with Coca-Cola - On April 29, 2021, Apple and Coca-Cola had close price-to-earnings ratios of 0.84 and 0.86, respectively [11]. - In the following five years, Apple's market value grew by 34%, while Coca-Cola's increased by 30% [12]. - On November 25, 2011, Apple's price-to-earnings ratio was 0.32, compared to Coca-Cola's 0.28 [13]. - Over fourteen years, Apple's market value grew by 8 times, while Coca-Cola's only increased by 1.1 times [17]. Group 4: Walmart's Position - Walmart's ROE is lower than Coca-Cola's, and its market value has been below Coca-Cola's for most of the time [15]. - In 2023, Walmart's market value began to significantly surpass Coca-Cola's, but its price-to-earnings ratio remains higher than Coca-Cola's, which is not sustainable in the long term [15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebalancing of the CSI Dividend Quality Index is a significant departure from traditional index rebalancing methods, focusing on a more strategic approach that emphasizes quality and lower valuations in the selected stocks [1][20]. Group 1: Industry Changes - The rebalancing involved a complete exit from coal and financial sectors, with strong additions from consumer and manufacturing sectors [2][10]. - A total of 21 constituent stocks were adjusted, with both the number and weight of changes around 42% [2][3]. Group 2: Stock Exclusions - Notably, no major bank stocks were retained, and traditional high-dividend sectors like coal and oil were also excluded [5][9]. - The only two financial stocks, China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance, were removed, marking a shift to a "non-financial dividend index" [8][7]. Group 3: Stock Inclusions - New inclusions are primarily from consumer healthcare, machinery manufacturing, and non-ferrous chemicals, establishing a foundation for the index [10]. Group 4: Valuation and Quality Improvements - The rebalancing resulted in a decrease in average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 20 to 18, and the median from 21 to 17 [14]. - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio decreased from 3.5 to 3.3, while the median remained at 3.1 [14]. - The average return on equity (ROE) increased from below 17% to above 18% [15]. Group 5: Retained Stocks Performance - The retained stocks in the index showed superior metrics, with average dividend yield and ROE both exceeding those of the newly added and removed stocks [18]. - The average PE ratio of retained stocks was below 0.9, indicating a more favorable valuation compared to the new inclusions [18]. Group 6: Conclusion - The CSI Dividend Quality Index aims to combine low valuations with high-quality companies, making it a benchmark for value investors [23][26]. - The strategy emphasizes the importance of buying into a logical framework rather than relying solely on past performance [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent interest rate cuts in China, particularly the first drop of the one-year deposit rate below 1%, marking the entry into a low-interest era. Despite this, bank stocks have surged, raising questions about their investment value in the current environment [3][5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Environment - The recent interest rate cuts have led to a significant decline in deposit rates, with the one-year deposit rate falling below 1%, indicating a shift to a low-interest environment [3]. - The bank AH index has a high dividend yield of 7.3%, attracting investor interest despite the low-interest rates [3][10]. Dividend Yield and Valuation - There is a common belief that dividend yields should be directly linked to risk-free rates. However, the article argues that this assumption is flawed, as evidenced by the disparity between dividend yields and the risk-free rates of government bonds [5][13]. - The article highlights that the bank AH index's dividend yield significantly exceeds the risk-free rate, suggesting that it is not overvalued even in a low-interest environment [5][10]. Bank AH Index Performance - The bank AH index has shown strong performance, with a cumulative increase of nearly three times over the past 12 years and an annualized return exceeding 12%. It also has the lowest maximum drawdown among related indices [7][9]. - The index employs a dynamic adjustment strategy, switching between A-shares and H-shares based on their performance, effectively implementing an arbitrage strategy [9][10]. Market Valuation Metrics - The article introduces a valuation metric called "市赚率" (Market Earnings Rate), which is calculated as the price-to-earnings ratio divided by the return on equity. This metric is used to assess the attractiveness of bank stocks [11][12]. - In a low-interest environment, the reasonable valuation range for the market earnings rate is suggested to be between 1.1PR and 1.4PR, indicating a higher tolerance for valuations [13][14]. Investment Strategy - The article recommends focusing on industry leaders for valuation, using examples like 招商银行 (China Merchants Bank) as a benchmark for the banking sector [15][16]. - The adjusted market earnings rate for 招商银行 is calculated to be 0.76PR, suggesting that it is within a comfortable investment range in the current low-interest environment [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the "Market Earnings Ratio" (市赚率) as a valuation parameter for investment decisions, particularly in the context of high-end liquor stocks like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. It suggests that significant investment should only occur when "bloody chips" (带血筹码) appear, indicating a substantial drop in stock prices and potential for recovery [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Earnings Ratio - The "Market Earnings Ratio" is defined as PR = PE / ROE / 100, where PE is the price-to-earnings ratio and ROE is the return on equity. This ratio helps identify undervalued stocks [2][4]. - Historical analysis shows that Kweichow Moutai's market earnings ratio only exceeded 2 PR during the 2007 bull market and in 2021, indicating periods of overvaluation [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The first strategy involves investing in Kweichow Moutai at a 60% discount, Wuliangye at 50%, and Luzhou Laojiao at 40% if their performance remains stable, aiming for valuation recovery with a potential doubling of investment [4][5]. - The second strategy suggests increasing investment to 20% or 30% when stock prices and performance decline, focusing on price anchoring rather than performance metrics. For example, if Kweichow Moutai's stock price drops to 1250 yuan, it represents a 50% discount [5][6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The article discusses the potential for high returns when "bloody chips" appear, referencing past instances where significant drops led to substantial recoveries, but cautions that replicating such scenarios may be challenging [6]. - It highlights the unique high-margin characteristics of premium liquor stocks, suggesting that while there is widespread recognition of their investment value, opinions on specific pricing vary significantly [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of various banking sectors in China, highlighting that the six major banks and rural commercial banks are generally overvalued, while joint-stock banks and city commercial banks are seen as undervalued [2][4]. Group 1: Market Valuation - The "Market Earnings Ratio" (市赚率) is introduced as a valuation parameter, calculated as Market Price to Earnings Ratio (PE) divided by Return on Equity (ROE), with a specific formula: PR = PE / (ROE / 100) [2][3]. - The average valuation of the six major banks' A-shares has reached above 1.0 PR, indicating overvaluation, while their H-shares average above 0.8 PR [4][5]. - The Postal Savings Bank is noted as the least favored among the six major banks, with a valuation below 1.0 PR in the A-share market [4]. Group 2: Joint-Stock Banks - Joint-stock banks are not generally overvalued, with an average A-share valuation of over 0.9 PR and H-share valuation at 0.8 PR [5][6]. - The disparity in valuation between A-shares and H-shares is highlighted, with examples such as China Merchants Bank showing stronger performance in H-shares compared to A-shares [5]. Group 3: City Commercial Banks - City commercial banks are identified as undervalued, with average A-share valuations around 0.8 PR, and specific banks like Jiangsu Bank and Hangzhou Bank noted as significant value opportunities with valuations of 0.65 PR [7][8]. Group 4: Rural Commercial Banks - The article suggests that rural commercial banks are not as clear-cut in terms of valuation, as they are generally seen as growth banks with lower dividend payout ratios, leading to higher correction coefficients [9][10]. - Only one rural commercial bank, Changshu Bank, is noted to have a valuation below 0.4 PR, indicating limited undervaluation compared to city commercial banks [9][10]. Group 5: Growth Banks - Four banks are identified as growth stocks with improving ROE: Hangzhou Bank, Qilu Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Changshu Bank [11][12]. - The article emphasizes that the valuation of these growth banks may not reflect their potential due to their lower dividend payout ratios [11][12]. Group 6: Market Environment - The article discusses the impact of a low-interest environment on stock valuations, suggesting that while valuations should theoretically rise, the relationship is not strictly inverse [12]. - It is recommended that banks with high valuations should be sold as they rise, particularly in the A-share market above 1.0 PR and H-share market above 0.8 PR [12].

长按即可免费加入哦 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：ericwarn丁宁 以下文章来源于ericwarn丁宁 ，作者ericwarn丁宁 ericwarn丁宁 . 市赚率的推广 来源：雪球 年报过后 ， 腾讯控股连跌两天 。 很多人问我 ： 腾讯控股贵了吗 ？ 接下来 ， 就以非国际财务 报告准则视角 ， 计算一下腾讯控股的内在价值 ！ 计算内在价值 ， 我用自己发明的市赚率 为了学习巴菲特 ， 笔者发明了一个叫作 " 市赚率 " 的估值参数 。 其公式为 ： 市赚率=市盈率/净 资产收益率 （ PR=PE/ROE ） 。 考虑到ROE是个百分数 ， 所以市赚率的真实公式其实是 ： PR=PE/ROE/100 。 当市赚率等于1PR为合理估值 ， 大于1PR和小于1PR则为高估和低估 。 上世 纪80年代 ， 巴菲特两次建仓可口可乐 。 两年平均下来 ， 刚好就是0.4PR 。 非常巧合的是 ， 从 那时起 ， 用 " 40美分买入1美元 " 就成了巴菲特的口头禅 。 巴菲特4折5折6折买股 ， 笔者也照 猫画虎4折5折6折买股 。 | | 持股数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article introduces a valuation parameter called "Market Earnings Ratio" (市赚率), defined as the ratio of Price-to-Earnings (PE) to Return on Equity (ROE), suggesting that a Market Earnings Ratio of 1 indicates a reasonable valuation, while values above or below indicate overvaluation or undervaluation respectively [2]. Group 1: Market Earnings Ratio - The formula for Market Earnings Ratio is PR = PE / ROE / 100, where a PR of 1 indicates a fair valuation [2]. - Historical examples from Buffett's investment in Coca-Cola show that the Market Earnings Ratio can guide investment decisions, with values of 0.474 and 0.326 observed in 1988 and 1989 respectively [2]. Group 2: Investment Returns and ROE - The article discusses the relationship between ROE and investment returns, stating that over a long period, ROE can approximate investment compounding, but this is a special case [4]. - It presents three hypothetical companies (A, B, C) with the same ROE but different dividend payout ratios, illustrating how dividend policies affect investment returns [4][5]. Group 3: High ROE and Low Growth - High ROE companies may not deserve high PE valuations if their growth rates are extremely low, as demonstrated through examples of companies D, E, and F with varying ROE and dividend policies [6][7]. - The article emphasizes that a 66.67% dividend payout ratio is a critical threshold where high ROE companies may start to underperform compared to low ROE companies [7][8]. Group 4: Coca-Cola Case Study - The investment in Coca-Cola from 1988 to 1998 yielded a tenfold return, with a net profit increase from 1.04 billion to 3.53 billion, showcasing that the growth rate was close to one-third of the average ROE during that period [10]. - The article suggests that the Market Earnings Ratio's requirement for net profit growth should ideally reach one-third of ROE for reasonable valuations [10]. Group 5: Industry Comparisons - The article compares the valuations of Midea and Gree, indicating that Midea's higher growth rate justifies its higher valuation, while Gree's lower growth leads to a lower valuation [10]. - It also discusses the future outlook for high-end liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai, suggesting that their profit growth may fall below one-third of ROE, which could be a concern for long-term investors [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of Hong Kong stocks, particularly the technology sector and the low-volatility dividend ETFs, highlighting investment strategies and valuation metrics like the "Market Earnings Ratio" [2][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong technology sector has seen significant gains, with the Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF rising over 50% since mid-January [2]. - The low-volatility dividend ETF (520550) has also started to experience a rebound, indicating a broader bull market in Hong Kong stocks [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of selling as prices rise and to maintain cash positions for potential reinvestment in low-volatility dividend ETFs [2][8]. - The concept of "ten-year dollar-cost averaging" is emphasized, suggesting that investors should remain disciplined and not become emotionally attached to stocks [9]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The author introduces a self-invented valuation metric called "Market Earnings Ratio" (PR), calculated as PE/ROE/100, where a PR of 1 indicates fair valuation [3]. - For the low-volatility dividend ETF (520550), the current Market Earnings Ratio is approximately 0.725, suggesting it is undervalued at around 70% of its fair value [5][10]. Group 4: Dividend Yield and Economic Context - As of January 2025, the dividend yield for the low-volatility dividend ETF (520550) is 7.96%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.62%, making it an attractive investment during a rate-cutting cycle [10]. - The article argues against the misconception that dividend yields must reach risk-free rates to be considered overvalued, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a focus on valuation metrics [10].