But in terms of actually economic output that we see going forward. >> All right, for more on the markets, let's bring in Verdant's CIO, Megan Hordeman. She joins us here.Uh Megan, great to have you with us. I'm going to pose the same let's start off the conversation with the question I posed to the desk and that is markets at record highs here or a 4% CD for the next six months. >> 4% CD all the way.>> Wow. >> I wouldn't be >> absolutely you know I've listened to the other guests. We've we've talked about ...

Oil Market - Oil prices are experiencing a significant decline, with Brent and WTI crude futures down nearly 10% in the last week, reaching four-month lows of $64.00 and $60.40 per barrel respectively, due to oversupply concerns [1] - OPEC+ is set to meet and may agree to increase oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, which would be three times the increase for October, contributing to the disinflationary momentum in oil prices [6] AI and Market Trends - OpenAI has reached a valuation of $500 billion after a recent share sale, marking it as the most valuable private company globally, up from a previous valuation of $300 billion [3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached record highs, driven by optimism surrounding the AI boom and expectations for further U.S. interest rate cuts, despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown [5] Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to delay the release of key economic data, including jobless claims and inflation reports, which are crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [10][9] - Analysts suggest that a prolonged government shutdown could reduce GDP growth by 0.1-0.2 percentage points per week, with historical context indicating that a longer shutdown could decrease fourth-quarter real GDP growth by 0.5-1.0 percentage points [13] - The quality and reliability of U.S. economic data are deteriorating, with standard errors in economic surveys increasing by 26% on average compared to 2015-2019, complicating the Fed's ability to assess economic conditions accurately [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to move towards further rate cuts, potentially reducing the policy rate to a neutral zone of 3% to 3.5% in the coming meetings, despite some hawkish sentiments among committee members [3][4][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Policy - The absence of new data due to a potential government shutdown may lead the Fed to rely less on data dependence, allowing for a clearer path towards rate cuts [2][3]. - The Fed is anticipated to implement 25 basis point cuts in the next three to four meetings, aligning the policy rate with the current yield curve [3][4]. - There is a consensus within the Fed committee on the need to move towards a neutral policy rate, although there is disagreement regarding the terminal rate [7][8]. Group 2: Internal Dynamics of the Fed - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is cautious about committing to specific rate cuts, emphasizing that their projections are not promises [6][8]. - There is a notable division among committee members regarding the terminal rate, with some preferring it to remain above 3% [7]. - Chair Powell is expected to effectively guide the committee towards a steady approach of gradual rate cuts without making definitive promises [8].

Market Overview & Economic Commentary - S&P 500 rose 10% during the 2018 shutdown, suggesting temporary government shutdowns have limited impact on market [2] - Market focus shifting to Q2/Q3 earnings and the AI trade [3] - Anticipation of rate cuts on October 29th and potentially December 10th is expected to fuel market exuberance [4] - Current market conditions are compared to the late 1990s internet bubble, with potential for irrational exuberance [5][6] - Rate cuts may not be necessary given GDP growth of 3% and persistent inflation [10] - The Fed's stance on inflation being "transitory" is questioned, especially with strong GDP growth [10][11] AI Sector Analysis - The AI space is currently perceived as having widespread potential, but is expected to consolidate to a few major players [6] - Circular investments and inflated valuations in AI are reminiscent of the late 1990s tech bubble [7][8] Monetary Policy & Fed Actions - The necessity of rate cuts is questioned, considering current economic indicators [9][10] - The Fed's potential rate cuts are viewed as sweeteners rather than necessities to prevent economic buckling [8] - The Fed's current approach is compared to its "transitory" inflation stance in 2021, despite evidence to the contrary [9][11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US government shutdown is ongoing, but President Trump views it as an opportunity to save billions, while markets remain unaffected, with the S&P 500 and stock 600 reaching all-time highs [2][4][18] - The ADP employment report indicated a significant decline in private payrolls, with a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, which is below expectations of a 45,000 job increase [19][14] - The healthcare sector has been a major driver of market performance, with the S&P 500 healthcare basket rising by 3% [15][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is perceived to have more room to cut rates based on the current economic data, particularly the weak ADP report [5][31] - Initial jobless claims remain low, indicating a stable labor market despite the recent job losses [20][34] - The overall economic backdrop has been described as benign, with strong GDP growth in the second quarter [25][20] Group 3: Company Insights - Bombardier is focusing on the business jet market, reporting a significant increase in demand for private jets post-COVID, with fleet operators flying 59% more hours than in 2019 [60][61] - The company is optimistic about its transformation, expecting to declare the completion of its strategic changes by the end of the year [66] - Bombardier's new Global 8000 jet is on track for release this year, promising to be the fastest and longest-range business jet [64][66] Group 4: Geopolitical and Regulatory Factors - The European Commission plans to propose significant cuts to steel import quotas and increase tariffs, which may impact companies in the steel industry [50] - The Trump administration has frozen $26 billion in funding for Democrat-leaning states, which could affect economic conditions in those regions [13]

Core Insights - Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene made a significant investment in a U.S. Treasury Bill valued between $100,001 and $250,000, indicating a strategic shift towards safe-haven assets [1][2] - Alongside the Treasury Bill, Greene purchased smaller stakes in ten different companies and funds, including major tech firms and a Bitcoin ETF [4][5] - The timing of these investments suggests a strategy to lock in higher yields before anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could lead to increased bond prices [3] Group 1: Investment Details - The largest transaction was the purchase of a U.S. Treasury Bill valued between $100,001 and $250,000, marking a shift from a previous sale of a Treasury Bill valued between $15,001 and $50,000 [2] - Greene's smaller investments ranged from $1,001 to $15,000 in companies such as Adobe Inc., Alphabet Inc. Class C, and CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. [4][5] - The complete list of assets purchased includes notable names in technology and finance, indicating a diversified investment approach [5] Group 2: Market Implications - Anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts may drive investors to purchase T-Bills to secure higher yields before they decline, which could enhance the attractiveness of earlier purchases [3] - The investments in tech stocks and a Bitcoin ETF reflect a broader trend of diversifying portfolios amidst changing economic conditions [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The disappearance of data is critically timed, impacting decision-making and analysis in the industry [1] Group 1 - The current situation highlights the challenges faced by companies relying on data for strategic planning and operational efficiency [1] - The absence of reliable data can lead to significant setbacks in forecasting and performance evaluation [1] - Companies may need to adapt their strategies to cope with the lack of available information [1]

The first rate cut of the year gives investors the opportunity to position their portfolios to capture future upside in certain sectors, should further cuts occur. History has an uncanny ability to repeat itself, and it's telling us that we should target the financial sector. ...

Geopolitical Developments & Market Impact - A 20-point proposal for a Gaza ceasefire, agreed upon by U S President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, awaits Hamas approval, potentially impacting regional stability and oil markets [1][5][38] - Qatar's role as a key mediator between Israel and Hamas is crucial for the ceasefire, requiring a face-saving gesture, such as Israel expressing regret for a past attack [8][9][10] - The Israeli Shekel has strengthened against the USD by approximately 10% this year, reflecting the impact of geopolitical developments on local markets [46] - RBA (澳大利亚储备银行) holds cash rate at 36%, notes uncertainties in global environment and upside risks to inflation [40][41][42][43] Economic & Financial Market Trends - Looming U S government shutdown raises market risk, potentially delaying crucial jobs data release and impacting monetary policy assessment [2][3][23][25][44] - Gold hits record highs, massively outperforming Bitcoin, driven by uncertainty and a pullback in USD, with potential for further gains amid Fed rate cuts [3][4][23][32][33][44] - The market has aggressively priced in 3-4 rate cuts by June 2026, making upcoming jobs market data pivotal for determining monetary policy [27] - Potential tariffs on imports of timber and lumber, particularly impacting Canada, add to market uncertainty [23][39] - MSCI China is logging five-month gains, the longest streak since 2018, driven by better-than-expected PMI data and geopolitical signals [48] Energy Sector - Brent crude oil is slipping down by 08% ahead of the OPEC Plus meeting, where increased supply is expected [4] - The oil market is bearish due to well-supplied conditions, with focus on Iran snapback and Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to investment in gold over oil [52][53] - Afentra is cautious about oil price volatility, focusing on a strong balance sheet and strategic acquisitions [64][65][66] - Nigeria's government intervenes to resolve a clash between the petroleum and natural gas association and oil labor group, potentially impacting crude production of 650 thousand barrels a day [76][77][78]

Market Overview - The Dow is on track for its fifth consecutive positive quarter, while the S&P and NASDAQ are pacing for their seventh positive quarter in eight [1] - Macro growth indicators show the Atlanta Fed estimating growth at almost 4% and other economists at nearly 3% for the quarter, indicating a positive outlook despite initial fears [2] Macro Data and Earnings - There has been a significant increase in macro data surprises, with 15 months of positive surprises leading to a shift in expectations regarding recession risks [3][4] - Current equity positioning reflects a cautious stance among fundamentals-based investors, who are primarily concerned about cyclical risks and earnings [5] Earnings Growth Expectations - Investors are currently positioned for 1-2% earnings growth, while actual earnings growth was 10% last quarter, with expectations for slight acceleration this quarter [6] - The impact of tariffs on earnings is relatively small, with only 17 percentage points of S&P 500 earnings directly affected, and Apple accounting for 5 percentage points of that [8][9] Tariffs and Inflation - The direct impact of tariffs has been overestimated, with evidence suggesting that half of the impact has already occurred, leading to a reassessment of future risks [10]