Is firing the Fed chair, a stagflation shock. Well, so stagflation charges, by definition that inflation will go up and GDP growth will go down. But if you fire the pitcher, as we saw yesterday, the dollar will likely go down.And at the same time, loan rates will be going up and the dollar going down is certainly inflationary, but rates going up is, of course, holding back growth. So firing the Fed chair will probably mainly mean a decline in the dollar and an increase in loan rates. Let's talk about the sn ...

Market Performance - NASDAQ is the only major market to close in the green [1] - Dow is down almost 1 percentage point [2] - S&P 500 is down about 04 percentage point [3] - S&P 600, a small cap market, is down 21%, marking the worst day for small caps in almost 8 weeks [4] - Tech is the only sector in the green, with Materials down 2% [6][7] Economic Indicators and Analysis - The 30-year yield is back above 5%, impacting equities [4] - CPI inflation is stalling out, with tariffs affecting goods inflation [10] - Consumer sentiment is delivering false alarms, with consumers judging their own finances positively but the overall economy negatively [35] - Economists suggest focusing on consumer spending rather than sentiment [40] - June CPI report shows a year-over-year number of 27%, but month-over-month numbers are fine, with the core number at 02% [47][48] Company Specific News - Nvidia is up 404%, resuming sales of some chips in China, potentially adding $8 billion in revenue [8][18][19] - JP Morgan's earnings were strong, with net interest income guidance exceeding expectations by at least $15 billion and investment banking revenues up over 9% year-on-year [25][26][27] - Bank of America expects net interest income to rise about 7% from the previous quarter [62]

Market Outlook - The market reacts significantly to Trump's tweets, but the actual economy is slowing sharply in the second half [1] - Strategists are mostly following what the market is doing, not thinking outside the box with big bold numbers [8] - May to October is a seasonally fraught period, with weakness occurring 60-65% of the time in the last century [9] - There are signs consumers could slow down, as seen in disappointing early Amazon Prime data [10] Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation is expected to breach 3% by year-end, based on the core personal consumption expenditure deflator (core PCE) [2] - A soft stagflationary environment with inflation above the 2% target and a slowing economy will affect S&P 500 earnings, including big tech [2] - The market may experience an echo of the stagflationary trades seen in the first four months of the year, though potentially half as bad (around 12% drop instead of over 20%) [3] - Inflation faced easy anniversary comparisons, but six-month annualized data and individual components of core PCE suggest inflation is sticky [5][6] Fed Policy - With a slowing economy and sticky inflation, fewer Fed cuts are expected [10] Potential Market Pullback - The market anticipates some weakness in the second half of the year [9] - A pullback is expected due to a slowing economy, slowing earnings, sticky inflation, and fewer Fed cuts [10]

It was one in the morning when Trump was still watching the vote on the "Big, Beautiful" bill in the White House . This was to stop the "Big, Beautiful" bill. The Democratic leader Hakim spoke for 8 hours and 44 minutes in the House of Representatives until his voice was hoarse. "(I hope my Republican colleagues) can come to a conclusion" "That is, we serve the American people." After a fierce game, the bill was finally passed . Trump got what he wanted with "218 to 214 votes." "Motion passed", what exactly ...

At the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting, they released their forecast for lower GDP, higher unemployment, and inflation than at the previous meeting. They projected GDP at 1.4%, unemployment to rise to 4.5%. And inflation to reach 3% in 2025.This combination of slowing growth and persistent inflation fits the classic definition of stagflation. A rare economic environment where both joblessness and prices climb at the same time. Now, in past instances of stagflation, it's been an exogenous force that pu ...

Welcome back. The S&P 500 NASDAQ hitting record highs this morning as we close out the first half of the year. Joining us now, Apollo global management chief economist Torson Sllock to give his outlook for the economy in the second half of the year.Torson, very good morning to you. Good to see you. Thanks for having me.Um, just that snapshot on what we learned there from Kevin Hasset and the developments over the weekend. Is is your expectation that the big beautiful bill ultimately does whether it's this w ...

Market Outlook & Economic Concerns - The market is potentially in a range, facing slower growth and higher inflation, but supported by steady retail demand and buybacks, with daily equity market demand around $7-8 billion [2] - A stagflationary tilt is present, advising caution on expecting a significantly higher market [2][6][15] - Expects a slowdown in the market, influenced by an effective tariff rate of 14%, equating to a $400 billion tax [3] - Recession risk remains, with a 1 in 3 chance [7] Tariffs & Inflation - Tariffs are creating stickier inflation, posing a risk of structural changes in business and consumer behavior [5][6] - The textbook economics view of tariffs as a one-time shift is not holding true, as the impact is stretched out over a longer period [4][5] Sector & Investment Strategies - Aerospace and defense sectors are expected to perform well, alongside consumer staples, utilities, and real estate [8] - International markets could outperform [8] - European defense sector is attractive, considering currency factors and front-loaded fiscal spending related to NATO [11][12] Bond Market & Fiscal Policy - Term premium is expected to remain elevated due to fiscal debt and Treasury funding needs [7][13] - A $5 trillion gap is projected to emerge beginning in 2026 when considering the rest of the decade [14] Gold as a Hedge - Gold is considered a good hedge against recession and stagflation risks [15] - Hypothetical scenarios suggest gold prices could reach $6,000 with increased gold holdings, with a more conservative target of $4,000 next year [16]

Panmure Liberum策略师认为，如果伊朗采取报复行动但不关闭霍尔木兹海峡，通胀冲击将是显著的， 但只是短暂的，不足以使市场脱轨。预计油价在经历最初的恐慌性飙升后，将在70-80美元/桶的区间内 波动。 ...

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So, what do you make of this this two-week time frame that the president has put out here to make his decision when it comes to Iran. How does that impact the markets. Does it impact certain sectors more than others.Yeah, I think the thing that's been notable at this entire conflict so far is it really hasn't been seen as impacting the the overall macro story for the US, for the US economy. It's been more focused on the energy commodities and then by extrapolation on the companies that develop energy in the ...