Group 1 - The stock market appears complacent regarding long-term macro risks, including potential recessionary impacts from tariffs and signs of strain in the bond market [1] - Emphasis is placed on value stocks over growth stocks in the current market environment [1] - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in technology companies and has been a contributor to Seeking Alpha since 2017, providing insights into industry trends [1]

Company Overview - HP Inc. is experiencing strong demand in the PC segment, particularly in the commercial sector, despite facing challenges related to costs driven by tariffs and trade changes [3]. Market Outlook - The macro environment is described as mixed, with solid growth in Q2 but challenging profit results due to tariff impacts [3]. - The company expects the market to continue growing in the second half of the year, aligning with initial expectations set at the beginning of the year [4].

Group 1 - John "Jack" Bowman is a registered investment advisor and research analyst focusing on macroeconomics and income-focused investments [1] - He contributes to the Sungarden Investors Club on Seeking Alpha, where he teaches investors about risk management and total return investing [2] - Bowman co-hosts weekly live sessions discussing market thoughts and ongoing trades, emphasizing the importance of using available tools for portfolio management [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a dovish outlook for G10 policy rates through 2026, suggesting a significant decline in rates, particularly in the US, where 10-year Treasury yields are expected to reach 4.00% by the end of 2025 and just above 3.00% by the end of 2026 [6][27]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the US dollar is expected to weaken significantly, with the DXY forecasted to fall an additional 9% over the next 12 months to 91, driven by a convergence in US rates and growth to peers, alongside increased FX hedging flows [6][69]. - The report outlines a bearish outlook for global growth, particularly in the US, where real GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, influenced by tariffs and immigration restrictions [15][23]. - Inflation is expected to moderate globally, with core PCE in the US forecasted to reach 4.5% before declining, while the euro area is projected to undershoot the ECB's inflation target due to sluggish growth [23][34]. Interest Rate Strategy - In the US, Treasury yields are expected to range trade through 3Q25 before declining, with a forecast of 10-year yields at 4.00% by the end of 2025 and a larger decline in 2026 as the Fed is anticipated to cut rates by 175 basis points [3][27]. - The euro area is projected to see the 10-year Bund yield fall to 2.40% by 4Q25 and 2.20% by 4Q26, influenced by more ECB easing than currently priced in [3][35]. - In the UK, 10-year gilt yields are expected to end 2025 at 4.35% and 2026 at 3.80%, with the Bank Rate projected to decline further due to a slowdown in economic activity [41][43]. Currency & Foreign Exchange - The report forecasts continued weakness in the USD, with significant declines against safe-haven currencies such as EUR, JPY, and CHF, as the DXY is expected to fall to 91 by mid-2026 [8][69]. - Specific currency pairs are projected to move as follows: EUR/USD to rise to 1.25, GBP/USD to 1.45, and AUD/USD to 0.69 by mid-2026, reflecting various economic factors [8][69]. Inflation-Linked Bonds - In the US, breakevens are expected to remain elevated until 3Q25 due to tariff-induced inflation, with a tightening forecast around 2Q26 as inflationary pressures begin to cool [9]. Sovereign Supply Outlook - The report anticipates a decrease in net coupon bond supply across the G7, amounting to US$2.72 trillion in 2025, down 5% year-over-year, influenced by fiscal policy uncertainties [53][62].

Group 1 - The article presents a perspective that views current macroeconomic risks as potential investment opportunities, particularly in the context of the S&P 500 and broader stock market [1] - It highlights concerns such as weaker consumer spending, potential issues in the bond market, and the threat of tariffs, which are largely being overlooked by the market [1] - The author, Gary Alexander, has extensive experience in technology sectors and has been involved with startups, providing insights into industry trends [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific company or stock recommendations, focusing instead on general market observations and personal insights from the author [2][3]

Today's the launch day for my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. I want to pass it along, particularly now because this is a critical time. Um, over the last 50 years or so, I've been a global macro investor, and I've made a lot of money making bets and finding the indicators of debt problems.And now I'm at a stage in my life that I really want to pass along these indicators both for policy makers and for individuals in order to try to deal with these situations. Well, this is a big situation. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that a HODL strategy may not yield significant alpha or maintain a high Sharpe ratio over the long term, suggesting that active management is essential for maximizing returns and minimizing opportunity costs [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company advocates for active management in investment strategies to achieve high positive returns, indicating that simply holding assets is insufficient for generating high alpha [1]. - It is highlighted that seeking high returns does not equate to generating high alpha, which is a critical distinction for investors [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has a strong educational background with a degree in Business Economics from UCLA and a Master of Accounting from UMich Ross School of Business, indicating a solid foundation in financial analysis [1]. - The analyst's experience includes 10 years in investment banking and a current role as a senior analyst at a multi-strategy hedge fund, showcasing expertise in fundamental equity research and global macro strategy [1].

Core Insights - American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) reported disappointing first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with both revenue and earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and declining year over year [1][2] Financial Performance - AEO posted a loss of $0.29 per share, wider than the expected loss of $0.25, and a significant decline from earnings of $0.34 in the same quarter last year [1] - Net revenues were $1.09 billion, down 5% year over year, slightly missing the consensus estimate of $1.091 billion [4] - Consolidated comparable sales (comps) fell 3% in the quarter, with the company predicting a negative comp of 4.7% [4] Brand Performance - Revenues for the American Eagle brand decreased by 4.3% year over year to $693.9 million, with comps down 2% [5] - Aerie brand revenues fell 3.5% year over year to $359.8 million, with comps declining by 4% [5] Margins and Expenses - Gross profit decreased by 30.5% year over year to $322.4 million, with gross margin dropping to 29.6% from 40.6% in the prior year [6] - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose by 2% year over year to $338.8 million, with SG&A as a percentage of sales increasing by 190 basis points to 31.1% [8] Operating Loss - The company reported an adjusted operating loss of $85.2 million, a significant decline from adjusted operating earnings of $77.8 million in the prior year quarter [9] Financial Health - As of May 3, 2025, AEO had cash and cash equivalents of $87.8 million and long-term debt of $110 million, with total shareholders' equity at $1.5 billion [10] - Inventory decreased by 5% year over year to $645 million [10] Shareholder Returns - AEO launched a $200 million accelerated share repurchase (ASR) program, representing approximately 18.1 million shares or about 9.5% of the company's fully diluted outstanding shares [11] - The company also repurchased $31 million in shares in the open market and distributed $22 million in dividends [11] Future Outlook - AEO has withdrawn its fiscal 2025 outlook due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty [12] - For Q2 2025, the company expects revenues to decline by 5% and comps to decrease by 3%, with gross margin projected to be down year over year [13]

27 May 2025 | 9:52PM EDT Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE) Key Takeaways from mgmt event | GLBE | | --- | | 12m Price Target: $39.00 | | Price: $31.81 | | Upside: 22.6% | We hosted an investor event with GLBE mgmt, including CEO Amir Schlachet, CFO Ofer Koren, and Head of IR, Alan Katz. Overall we thought the message was upbeat, as 1) the company made it clear they believe the renewal with Shopify does not represent a decoupling, and will result in better economics on the 3P solution, eventually leading to an acc ...

Core Insights - American Eagle Outfitters reported disappointing quarterly earnings, reflecting a $75 million write-down in spring and summer merchandise, leading to the withdrawal of its full-year guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty [1][6]. Financial Performance - The company experienced an operating loss of $85.18 million for the three-month period ending May 3, compared to a net income of $77.84 million a year earlier [4]. - Revenue decreased to $1.09 billion, consistent with expectations but down from $1.14 billion a year prior, with comparable sales down 3% [5][10]. - Loss per share was reported at 29 cents adjusted, compared to an expected loss of 22 cents [10]. Management Commentary - CEO Jay Schottenstein acknowledged the challenging first quarter and expressed disappointment with the results, emphasizing actions to improve performance in upcoming quarters [2][6]. - The company is working to align inventory with sales trends and is actively evaluating forward plans to strengthen product performance [7]. Future Guidance - AEO issued a downbeat outlook for the second quarter, expecting revenue to decline by 5% and comparable sales to decrease by 3% [6]. - The company anticipates operating income for the second quarter to be between $40 million and $45 million [6]. Industry Context - AEO is not alone in withdrawing or modifying financial guidance, as other retailers like E.l.f. Beauty and Canada Goose have also adjusted their forecasts due to trade uncertainties [8]. - The company sources nearly 20% of its products from China and aims to reduce this to below 10% by the end of the fiscal year, with potential tariff impacts of $5 million to $10 million [9][11].