Core Viewpoint - Japan's core CPI in Tokyo recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.5% in August, marking the slowest growth since March of this year, indicating a temporary slowdown in inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Tokyo inflation data is seen as a leading indicator for national price trends, suggesting that it is unlikely to divert the Bank of Japan from its current interest rate hike path [1] - Recent comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and strong signals of economic and price growth in Japan have heightened market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year [1] Group 2: Expert Opinions - Economist Taro Kimura stated that the report will bolster the Bank of Japan's confidence in achieving its 2% inflation target, supported by the stickiness of food prices and steady wage growth leading to increased labor costs [1]

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Mitsubishi Corporation from 9.74% to 10.23%, triggering disclosure requirements under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act [1] - Following the announcement, Mitsubishi Corporation's stock price rose nearly 3%, contributing to an overall increase in the Japanese stock market [1] - Berkshire Hathaway's total investment in the five major Japanese trading companies has reached $23.5 billion, with an average annual return of 15.3% since the initial investment [3] Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 7%, recently surpassing 42,800 points, approaching its historical high of 43,876 points [4] - Japan's economy expanded at a faster-than-expected pace, with a second-quarter GDP growth rate of 1.0%, leading to expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [5] - A survey indicated that nearly two-thirds of economists believe the Bank of Japan will raise its key interest rate by at least 25 basis points later this year [5] Group 3 - Despite pressures for rate hikes due to inflation exceeding 2% for over three years, the Bank of Japan has maintained a cautious approach, partly due to concerns over U.S. tariffs impacting Japan's economic growth [6] - A recent survey showed that 92% of economists expect no rate adjustment in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, but 63% anticipate a rate increase in the next quarter [6]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding the impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japan's economy remains significant, despite a recent trade agreement that reduced tariffs from 25% to 15% [2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff reduction is seen as insufficient to eliminate the uncertainties affecting Japan's economy, as highlighted by Bank of Japan's committee member Nakagawa Junko [2]. - Japan's economy is heavily export-oriented, making it particularly vulnerable to U.S. tariff policies, which have created a challenging economic environment [4]. - Japan's total exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline since February 2021, with exports decreasing for four consecutive months [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue evaluating economic data carefully before making any monetary policy decisions, reflecting the ongoing uncertainties [2]. - Despite the current economic challenges, the Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.5% in July while raising inflation forecasts, which has somewhat boosted market confidence regarding potential rate hikes later this year [4]. - Analysts predict that nearly two-thirds expect the Bank of Japan to raise the benchmark interest rate by at least 25 basis points later this year, indicating a shift in market expectations [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Japanese yen is experiencing limited upward momentum despite a short-term rebound, as the Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda has signaled that conditions for interest rate hikes are gradually forming, increasing market expectations for tighter monetary policy in Japan [1] - Japan's core CPI for July rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 3.0%, despite showing signs of cooling for the second consecutive month, reinforcing expectations for potential interest rate hikes in the coming months [1][1] - The optimistic signals from the Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda suggest that wage growth is spreading from large enterprises to small and medium-sized enterprises, likely accelerating due to a tightening labor market [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY exchange rate is currently positioned in the lower-middle range of recent fluctuations, with the dollar index reported at 97.88 [2] - Key resistance for the USD/JPY exchange rate is observed at the 148.40 level, while important support levels are noted at 146.83 and 146.43 [2] - Technical indicators suggest that short-term momentum may weaken, but the overall trend requires observation to determine if key support or resistance levels can be effectively broken [3]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has rebounded from a low of 146.58 to trade between 146.80 and 147.52, currently at 147.4200, reflecting a 0.33% increase [1] - Japan's inflation data for July slightly exceeded expectations, with the national CPI rising 3.1% year-on-year, leading to speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as early as October [1] - Economists increasingly support a 25 basis point rate hike by the BOJ in Q4, with October seen as the most likely time for policy tightening, driven by strong GDP growth and a renewed trade agreement with the US [1] Group 2 - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that a tight labor market will continue to exert upward pressure on wages, suggesting that stable inflation is imminent [2] - Ueda's comments may fuel speculation about another rate hike this year, although he did not directly address monetary policy during his speech [2] - The BOJ has identified labor shortages as a key factor driving inflation through wage growth [2] Group 3 - The USD is experiencing a slow upward correction, with the USD/JPY gradually adjusting to the mid-range [3] - Short-term pressure levels are near the mid-axis around 147.9, with technical indicators showing a bearish trend despite a strong rebound [3] - The overall market is currently in a consolidation phase within the range of 146 to 149.5, with key resistance at 147.7 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last Friday may provide more downward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate, indicating a potential for further weakening of the dollar in the short term [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Powell's comments have increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the September meeting [1] - The market sentiment is leaning towards a more dovish stance from the Fed, which could lead to a weaker dollar [1] Group 2: Currency Exchange and Trading Strategy - Nomura's global market research team expresses increased confidence in their short position on USD/JPY, targeting a level of 142.00 yen per dollar by the end of October [1] - Recent discussions among Bank of Japan officials, including member Nakagawa Junko, regarding the possibility of a rate hike before the end of the year are also a focal point [1]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently trading around 147, showing a slight decline of 0.07% from the previous close of 147.86 [1] - Japanese political figure Saito Ken emphasized the need for caution in the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes due to potential economic cooling from increased US tariffs [1] - Saito Ken's comments indicate that the Bank of Japan may face political pressure if it resumes interest rate hikes, as rising US tariffs could weaken corporate profits and wage growth in Japan [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY is in a corrective channel since the low of 147.05 on August 5, with a potential bearish flag pattern forming [2] - A break below the August 7 and 8 lows of 146.75 would confirm the bearish pattern, with the next target being the July 25 low of 145.85 [2] - Immediate resistance is noted at the intraday high of 148.10, with further resistance at 148.50 and the upper boundary of the bullish channel currently at 148.60 [2]

Group 1 - French Agricultural Credit Bank analysts indicate that Japan's corporate capital expenditure is expected to become cautious due to U.S. tariffs and concerns over global economic slowdown, potentially leading to a quarter-on-quarter contraction in Japan's economy in Q3 2025 [2] - Barclays Bank reports a surge in European high-yield bond issuance driven by refinancing needs and increased dividend payments, with issuance surpassing €80 billion since 2025, marking the second-highest level for the period [2] - ING analysts suggest that if geopolitical risks ease, the dollar may face downward pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand, while strong U.S. inflation data has led to a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, supporting the dollar [3] Group 2 - Analysts believe the Bank of England may maintain a cautious interest rate stance for the remainder of 2025, with expectations to pause rate cuts in September and December, providing key support for the pound [4]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese companies are expected to be more cautious about capital expenditures due to the impact of US tariffs and concerns over a global economic slowdown, potentially leading to a contraction in the Japanese economy in the third quarter [1] Economic Outlook - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as January 2026, contingent on the belief that the global economy will not decline and that economic policies will be effective enough to restore real GDP to positive growth starting in the fourth quarter [1] Consumer Behavior - The extreme heat during the summer may cause hesitation among consumers to go out, which could limit the recovery of consumer spending [1]

Economic Growth - Japan's GDP for the second quarter grew at an annualized rate of 1.0%, surpassing the forecast of 0.4% and showing a revision from the previous quarter's growth of 0.6% [1][4] - Business investment increased by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the market expectation of 0.7%, while private consumption saw a slight growth of 0.2% [3][4] Central Bank Implications - The strong economic performance may reinforce market expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again this year, with 42% of economists surveyed anticipating a rate hike in October [4][5] - The Bank of Japan's Governor has indicated that if domestic demand remains stable, the central bank will continue to raise borrowing costs [4] Trade and Investment - Despite the uncertainties posed by U.S. tariffs, Japanese corporate investment has shown steady growth, with large companies planning to increase investment by 11.5% this fiscal year, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.1% [6] - Net exports contributed 0.3 percentage points to economic growth, with actual exports increasing by 2% despite U.S. tariffs, as companies lowered sales prices to maintain market share [7] Consumer Spending - Private consumption accounts for nearly 60% of Japan's GDP, and despite ongoing inflation, its growth rate remains slightly above expectations, supported by robust wage growth from this year's salary negotiations [7][8] - Strong inbound tourism has also bolstered net exports, with foreign tourist spending increasing by 18% in the second quarter [7] Future Outlook - The third quarter data may better reflect the impact of tariff policies as initial shock effects dissipate, with ongoing risks including persistent inflation [7] - Companies have committed to wage increases exceeding 5%, which may support consumer spending in the coming months [8]