明年中国经济怎么干？对比去年的中央经济工作会议内容可以发现，今年的会议内容出现不少新表述。 比如，去年关于"当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深"的表述，今年变成了"外部环境变化影响加 深"。有分析称，这说明中国更有信心和能力去应对外部压力、主动运筹国际空间。再比如，今年会议 提出"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"。分析人士指出，这意味着后续政策改革更加基于长远经济周期变 化，体现出中国决策层对经济规律的精准把握以及审时度势的调整。 转自：北京日报客户端 "在全球经济不确定性上升的背景下，中国以更主动、更稳健的政策调节经济，有助于自身经济增长， 并为世界经济提供有效需求。"对于10日至11日在北京召开的中央经济工作会议，美中合作基金会执行 主席约翰·米勒-怀特与《国际锐评》进行了交流。消费者健康企业科赴中国总裁沈馥安对《国际锐评》 表示，会议部署的建设强大国内市场、坚持创新驱动、坚持对外开放等2026年重点任务让人印象深 刻，"这意味着外资将迎来更多发展机遇，我们有信心与中国经济共成长"。 中国这场年度经济会议何以吸引世界目光？从中国发展方位看，明年是"十五五"开局之年，这次会议 在"十四五"即将圆满收官、"十五五 ...

黄金撑起的短期幻觉 小李注意到，近期美国贸易领域传来一则捷报，9月贸易逆差骤降11%至528亿美元，创下五年来最低水 平，这一数据远超市场预期，瞬间成为白宫宣传"美国优先"贸易议程的有力注脚。 但拨开数据的迷雾不难发现，这场狂欢的核心推手并非制造业复苏或出口结构优化，而是非货币性黄金出 口的反常暴涨，单月黄金出货增量就占据出口总增量的七成以上。 在全球经济不确定性加剧的背景下，黄金作为传统避险资产，其出口激增往往与国际资本的避险情绪直接 相关，而非美国本土产业竞争力的实质性提升。 这种短期的出口红利更像是一笔意外之财，难以形成可持续的增长动力。 最近美国贸易圈炸出大新闻：贸易逆差直接降到五年最低，按说这该是经济向好的信号，可小李发现，全 球多个国家却接连陷入经济困境，有的产业停滞，有的就业锐减。 一边是美国的"贸易捷报"，一边是多国的"经济寒冬"，这看似矛盾的两件事，真的有关联吗？ 美国逆差大降的背后，到底藏着什么不为人知的操作？为啥偏偏在这个节点，多国经济会集中遭重创？ 今天小李就带大家扒一扒这背后的核心逻辑，看看这场贸易数据的狂欢，到底是谁的红利，又是谁的劫 难。 在小李看来，白宫将这份暂时性数据归功于关 ...

2025年12月10日，墨西哥参众两院通过一项关税法案，计划从2026年1月1日起对中国等未与其签署贸易协定的亚洲国家加征5%至50%的关税。其中，中国 轻型汽车关税将从20%飙升至50%，汽车零部件、钢铁、纺织品等1371个品类均被覆盖。这一税率甚至超过美国对华关税上限，引发全球供应链震动。 墨西哥经济部文件显示，新关税涉及1463个税则项目，占墨西哥总关税代码的16.8%，影响价值约520亿美元的进口商品，相当于墨西哥年进口总额的 8.6%。其中，中国产品首当其冲——2024年墨西哥从中国进口额达902亿美元，占其总进口的20%。若按等比例推算，超过100亿美元的中国商品将直接受到 冲击。 墨西哥此次加税并非孤立行动。2025年以来，其已连续推出多轮对华限制：1月对中国纺织品征收临时关税；7月对电动汽车加征35%反补贴税；8月将小额 包裹关税从19%提至33.5%。这一系列动作与美国对墨施压紧密相关。 核心诱因是2026年《美墨加协定》审议。美国多次要求墨西哥限制中国商品"借道"进入北美市场，尤其担心中国电动汽车通过墨西哥规避美国100%的关税 壁垒。 特朗普政府甚至以芬太尼走私、移民问题为借口，威胁对墨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long-term trade improvement in the U.S. is likely assured as trade frictions stabilize, with potential inflation reduction if manufacturing costs decrease or investments from exporting countries increase [1] - The U.S. trade deficit in September 2025 was recorded at $52.8 billion, the lowest since June 2020, driven by a significant increase in exports rather than a drastic reduction in imports [3] - Exports reached $289.3 billion in September, a month-on-month increase of 3%, with consumer goods contributing $4.1 billion to this growth, indicating a recovery in U.S. consumer goods competitiveness in the global market [3] Group 2 - The trade imbalance in the U.S. showed marginal improvement in 2025 compared to 2024, with a trade deficit of $918.4 billion in 2024, while the first three quarters of 2025 showed a cumulative deficit of $112.6 billion, reflecting a widening gap between export growth (3%) and import growth (0.6%) [5] - The Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts in 2025 have lowered corporate financing costs, contributing to improved export competitiveness, while companies are adjusting their import strategies amid global supply chain restructuring [5] - Initial jobless claims data showed a significant drop in continuing claims, indicating resilience in the labor market, although there are signs of layoffs in interest-sensitive sectors like transportation and manufacturing [7] Group 3 - The current U.S. economy is at a critical juncture of "policy retreat" and "structural transformation," with potential risks of trade deficit expansion if global demand does not recover alongside the short-term effects of gold exports [10] - The employment market does not currently face systemic risks, but the direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is crucial, as prolonged high rates could lead to increased layoffs in capital-intensive industries [10] - The combination of high tariffs and rising financing costs may lead to passive deleveraging through layoffs and reduced investments, as indicated by initial jobless claims data [9]

墨西哥参议院通过新税法，自2026年起，对来自 印度、中国、韩国、泰国、印尼等亚洲国家的商品 加征 5%—50% 进口关税，覆盖至少 1400类产品。 涉及范围极广 包括：服装、鞋类、家具、家电、玩具、钢铁、塑料、汽车零件、铝制品、摩托车、皮革制品、纸品、化妆品等。 政治争议不断 反对党批评立法仓促，且可能推高民生成本，冲击普通民众。 印度面临的现实冲击 印度将受到与中国类似的出口压力： 墨西哥政府预计新关税将带来年度 700亿比索 的财政收入。 1. 保护本土产业，对抗廉价进口 2. 减少对中国和亚洲市场的依赖 3. 回应美国压力，为USMCA审查做准备 制造业产品竞争力下降 对墨出口或面临大幅萎缩 拉美市场布局被迫调整 墨西哥为何突然出手？ 多家媒体认为主要有三大动因： ...

大摩闭门会-中国制造业的主导地位、经济工作会议前瞻， 以及韩元走弱的启示 20251211 摘要 中国全球制造业出口份额预计将从 15%增至 16.5%，乐观情况下可能 达到 18%，受益于研发投入增加和 STEM 人才优势，以及在高增长细分 市场（如电动汽车）的领先地位。 尽管中美贸易紧张，中国通过增加与其他主要经济体的贸易顺差，抵消 了对美贸易逆差的影响，维持了在全球制造供应链中的地位。 美国《国防授权法》虽未明确提及中国 CDMO 供应商，但仍存在未来被 列入名单的风险，不过新版本提供了申诉途径，投资者应关注公司基本 面。 预计 2026 年中国 GDP 目标维持在 5%左右，政策仍以稳定国内需求为 主，一万亿人民币刺激措施将延续，官方预算设定约为 GDP 的 4%。 韩国韩元贬值虽短期内可能提高出口竞争力，但长期影响减弱，且对通 胀带来负面影响，预计 2026 年通胀率维持在 2.1%左右。 预计韩元因美联储降息和韩国经济基本面改善而反弹，美元兑韩元汇率 将在 2026 年第二季度末下降到 1,410 左右，股市对美元走势敏感性增 加。 CDMOs 通过分散供应链，如在美国和新加坡建立生产基地，以应对 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mexico's Senate has passed a new import-export tariff law, set to impose tariffs ranging from 5% to 50% on various products from several Asian countries, including China, starting January 1, 2026. This move, aimed at supporting domestic industries, has faced significant opposition from various business groups in Mexico [1]. Group 1: Legislative Details - The Senate approved the tariff law with a vote of 76 in favor, 5 against, and 35 abstentions, following its earlier passage in the House of Representatives [1]. - The law will impose tariffs on a wide range of products, including automobiles, auto parts, textiles, clothing, plastics, and steel, with most tariffs set at 35% [1]. - The final version of the law is considered milder than an earlier proposal that was shelved, with at least 750 amendments made [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - Business leaders warn that the tariffs will disrupt key manufacturing sectors that support Mexico's production, employment, and exports, particularly in electrical and electronic components [2]. - The president of the National Chamber of Commerce highlighted that 66% of the national GDP sectors were not consulted before the proposal was submitted, leading to decisions lacking technical assessments, which have already caused contractions in some industrial and service sectors [2]. - The board member of the Mexican Business Coordinating Council stated that tariff increases will immediately reflect in final prices, disproportionately affecting low-income consumers [2]. Group 3: International Response - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed opposition to unilateral tariff measures and is conducting a trade barrier investigation against Mexico to protect its industries [3].

Core Points - Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum proposed a high tariff policy on imports from China and other countries without free trade agreements, with rates up to 50%, affecting approximately 1,371 tariff codes and an estimated $52 billion in imports [1][3][5] - The tariff proposal is part of the "Plan Mexico" industrial policy and is one of the largest tariff reforms in decades, with various rates including 10%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, and 50% [3][5] - The automotive sector is significantly impacted, with tariffs on Chinese light vehicles set to rise from 20% to 50% [3][11] Tariff Proposal Details - The proposed tariffs will cover a wide range of products, including automobiles, textiles, steel, toys, footwear, plastics, furniture, and machinery [3][5] - The Mexican government anticipates that the new tariffs will generate approximately 37.6 million pesos (around $2 billion) in additional revenue annually [5] - The implementation of these tariffs is expected to be fully effective by December 31, 2026, with potential extensions [5][14] International Pressure and Reactions - The tariff proposal is seen as a response to pressure from the United States, particularly following threats from the Trump administration regarding tariffs on Mexican goods [5][6][8] - The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is set for review in 2026, adding to Mexico's pressures regarding trade relations [8] - The Chinese government has expressed strong opposition to the proposed tariffs, emphasizing its commitment to free trade and indicating potential retaliatory measures [10][14] Domestic Opposition - The proposal has faced significant backlash from business leaders and within the ruling party, leading to delays in congressional debates [8][10][14] - Concerns have been raised about increased production costs for Mexican manufacturers reliant on Chinese imports, with potential price hikes of up to 100% for some products [10][14] - There is a division among lawmakers regarding the timing and necessity of escalating trade tensions with China [10][14] Strategic Implications for Chinese Companies - Chinese automotive companies are advised to reconsider their export strategies, with suggestions to shift towards local production in Mexico to mitigate tariff impacts [13] - Challenges for Chinese firms include establishing a robust supply chain and after-sales service network in Mexico [13]

Core Viewpoint - Mexico has announced an increase in tariffs on non-free trade partners, including China, effective January 1, 2026, which is expected to harm the interests of related trade partners, including China [3]. Group 1: Tariff Changes - The Mexican Congress approved a proposal to increase tariffs on certain products from non-free trade partners, with adjustments made to some tax items and rates compared to the proposal submitted in September [3]. - Some tariff rates on automotive parts, light industrial products, and textiles have been slightly reduced, but overall measures will still significantly harm trade partners [3]. Group 2: China's Response - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has expressed strong opposition to unilateral tariff increases and has initiated a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico [3]. - China emphasizes the importance of resolving trade disputes through economic agreements without harming global trade development or China's legitimate interests [3][4]. Group 3: Bilateral Trade Relations - China values its economic and trade relationship with Mexico and aims to promote healthy and stable bilateral trade and investment cooperation [4]. - In the context of rising trade protectionism, China hopes for enhanced communication and dialogue with Mexico to manage differences and deepen practical cooperation [4].

12月11日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 有记者问：据报道，墨西哥参议院通过了新的进出口关税法，将从明年起对包括中国在内的多个亚洲国 家的部分产品征收百分之五到百分之五十的关税，请问中方对此有何评论？ 郭嘉昆表示，中方主管部门已就此作出回应，你可以查阅。我们想强调，逆经济全球化潮流而动、搞保 护主义，损人不利己，希望墨方及早纠正有关错误做法，同中方相向而行，共同维护好双边经贸关系大 局。 稍早前，商务部新闻发言人就墨西哥国会审议通过对非自贸伙伴的提税提案答记者问。 有记者问：据墨西哥当地媒体报道，当地时间12月10日，墨西哥参众两院审议通过对非自贸伙伴的提税 提案，新税率将于2026年1月1日起生效。我们也注意到，与墨政府9月向国会提交的提案相比，此次审 议通过的版本中，一些税目和税率做了调整。请问商务部对此有何评论? 中方高度重视中墨经贸关系，积极推动双边贸易投资合作健康稳定发展。在当前国际形势复杂多变、贸 易保护主义阴云密布的背景下，期待墨方同中方相向而行，加强经贸领域沟通对话，妥善管控分歧，深 化务实合作，共同维护好双边经贸关系大局。 综合自：央视新闻、商务部网站 （文章来源：证券时报） 答：我 ...