（开篇互动） 【深度解读】加拿大对华贸易博弈始末：一场跟风美国引发的经济困局 各位读者朋友，在展开今天的故事前，不妨思考一个问题：当一个小国盲目追随大国政策时，最终会付出怎样的代价？让我们通过加拿大近期的对华贸易案 例，一窥其中的深刻教训。本文所有观点均基于中国商务部、加拿大统计局等官方数据，文末附有详细信息来源供查证。 （事件回溯） 2025年9月下旬，彭博社一则消息引发国际关注：加拿大外长安妮塔·阿南德即将开启访华行程。表面上看，这是两国关系回暖的信号，但揭开外交辞令的面 纱，实则是加拿大在贸易战中陷入困境的无奈之举。这场危机的种子，早在一年前就已埋下。 （冲突起源） 2024年10月，加拿大政府突然宣布对华加征三重关税： 2. 钢铝产品：统一征收25%附加税 1. 电动车：在原有6.1%关税基础上追加100%惩罚性关税 3. 新能源产品：将电池、半导体等纳入加税清单 渥太华方面声称这是保护本土产业，但明眼人都看出这是在配合美国的印太战略。这个被国际社会广泛质疑的战略，本质是通过经济手段遏制中国发展。 （中方反制） 中国商务部在2025年3月打出精准反击组合拳： - 第一波：对加国菜籽油、豌豆征收100% ...

Core Viewpoint - Canada is reviewing tariffs imposed on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum, following a year of significant trade tensions between Canada and China, particularly regarding canola products [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Review and Government Actions - The Canadian government has initiated a review of the tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum to assess the current tax rates' validity [1]. - The review is expected to officially start next month, with updates to be provided at appropriate times [1]. - Since the implementation of these tariffs, the import volume of the affected products has significantly decreased [1]. Group 2: Trade Delegation to China - A parliamentary secretary will accompany a trade delegation to China, indicating a potential shift in the Canadian government's approach to trade relations with China [2][8]. - The delegation, led by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, aims to negotiate the canola import guarantee issue and foster dialogue for a closer trade relationship [3][6]. - This visit marks the first time in six years that a Canadian provincial leader has led a delegation to China [6]. Group 3: Broader Trade Implications - The Saskatchewan government is seeking to address not only canola but also tariffs on other Canadian products such as peas, pork, and seafood during the visit [6]. - The Canadian government is also taking measures to protect jobs in the canola industry and plans to announce additional support for Canadian producers [8][10]. - There is an acknowledgment from Canadian officials that there is still room for growth in trade with China, particularly in the agricultural sector [10].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the trends in China's seafood industry from 2025 to 2031, focusing on import and export statistics [1] Import Data - In June 2025, China's edible seafood imports amounted to 370,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% [1] - The import value for the same period was $1.546 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [1] Export Data - In June 2025, China's edible seafood exports reached 360,000 tons, which is a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - The export value during this period was $1.638 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [1] Industry Overview - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1]

根据中国海关数据显示：2025年6月中国水产品进口数量为39万吨，同比下降4.3%，进口金额为15.66亿 美元，同比增长10.5%，2025年6月中国水产品出口数量为36万吨，同比增长7.5%，出口金额为16.46亿 美元，同比下降2.1%。 近一年中国水产品出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 近一年中国水产品进口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国水产品行业市场行情监测及投资前景研判报告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

Core Insights - The 15th China Xinjiang Kashgar Central Asia and South Asia Commodity Fair (referred to as "Kashgar Fair") opened on August 15, attracting numerous exhibitors and visitors, highlighting the event's significance in promoting regional products and trade opportunities [1] Group 1: Exhibition Highlights - The Zepu County exhibition stand featured a sophisticated design that showcased local cultural characteristics and abundant resource endowments, drawing significant attention from attendees [2] - Various unique products, including red dates and crayfish, were displayed, emphasizing the richness of Zepu's local produce and encouraging visitors to explore the region [2] Group 2: Business Opportunities - The Zepu County exhibition area aimed to leverage the Kashgar Fair platform to engage in negotiations and collaborations with merchants from various regions, thereby expanding sales channels and creating new business opportunities for participating enterprises [3] - Companies like Zepu County Xiaopingle Adhesive Tape Co., Ltd. expressed the importance of the fair as a bridge connecting markets and customers, seeking to establish partnerships and expand their business networks [3] - Xinjiang Baiqin Fire Technology Co., Ltd. highlighted their successful participation in the previous year's fair, which exceeded expectations, and aimed to replicate that success this year [3] Group 3: Industry Focus - The Zepu County exhibition focused on three main industries: biological and food industries, equipment manufacturing, and new materials, showcasing over 30 participating enterprises across various sectors including specialty products, low-altitude economy, cultural tourism, and import-export trade [4] - Featured products included processed specialty fruits, beverages, fire-fighting equipment, synthetic diamonds, aluminum products, engineering equipment, aquatic products, and tourism souvenirs, reflecting the industrial vitality and unique charm of Zepu County [4]

Core Insights - The top ten foreign trade cities in China for the first half of 2025 have been released, showcasing a stable position for leading cities while new contenders are emerging [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - Shenzhen ranks first with a total import and export value of 2.17 trillion yuan, accounting for 9.9% of the national foreign trade value, despite a slight decline of 1.1% year-on-year [2][3] - Shanghai follows closely with 2.15 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with a notable 9.5% growth in imports [2][3] - Beijing's trade value is 1.53 trillion yuan, down 16.4% year-on-year, but it has seen three consecutive months of record-high exports [2][3] - Suzhou's trade reached 1.3 trillion yuan, growing by 5.7%, benefiting from the Yangtze River Delta industrial chain [2][3] Group 2: Sector Contributions - Dongguan's trade value is 749.28 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 16.5%, driven by the trendy toy industry, which accounts for 30% of national exports [4][5] - Ningbo's trade reached 721.8 billion yuan, growing by 6.1%, with traditional industries collaborating with emerging sectors [4][5] - Guangzhou's trade value is 605.05 billion yuan, with the highest export growth rate of 25.2%, supported by machinery and electrical products [4][5] - Yiwu's trade reached 508.68 billion yuan, growing by 20.1%, with the small commodity market playing a crucial role [4][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The competition between Shenzhen and Shanghai for the top position is expected to continue, influenced by global demand recovery in the second half of the year [6] - The combined trade value of Shanghai, Suzhou, Ningbo, and Jinhua exceeds 4.7 trillion yuan, representing 21.6% of the national total [5][6] - Emerging markets are becoming the main growth drivers, with significant increases in trade with ASEAN and Central Asia [5][6]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The PMI for Vietnam in July reached 52.4, marking the first time in four months it surpassed the 50-point threshold, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector [1] - New orders in Vietnam have rebounded, achieving the fastest growth since November 2024 [1] Group 2: Wood and Wood Products Industry - As of the end of July, Vietnam's wood and wood products export total reached $9.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [1] - The wood industry is projected to export approximately $7 billion in the last five months of the year, leading to an estimated total export of $17 billion for the year [1] Group 3: Agricultural and Seafood Sector - The agricultural and seafood sectors are also showing resilience, with the Fucim Group reporting an export value of approximately $30.5 million for the fiscal year 2024-2025, a nearly 25% increase [1] - Key products like pepper and coffee have seen significant price increases, contributing to the overall growth [1] Group 4: Seafood Export Performance - Vietnam's seafood export value reached $6.22 billion in the first seven months of the year, representing a growth of 17.2% [2] - The U.S. market for Vietnamese seafood grew by 10.4%, while the Chinese market saw a remarkable increase of 42.6%, reaching $1.33 billion [2] - Increased imports from China have provided opportunities for Vietnamese companies ahead of the U.S. implementing reciprocal tariff policies [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that in May 2025, China's import of edible aquatic products reached 380,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.2%, with an import value of $1.555 billion, which is a 9.3% increase compared to the previous year [1] - In the same month, China's export of edible aquatic products amounted to 370,000 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, with an export value of $1.744 billion, marking a 2.7% growth year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Trump to impose tariffs on Japanese products has raised significant concerns in the international community, particularly regarding the implications for Japan's economy and its trade negotiations with the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Negotiations - Trump announced a tariff increase of 25%-40% on products from Japan and 13 other countries starting August 1, following the U.S. government's earlier announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - Japan initially approached the negotiations with optimism, believing its substantial investments in the U.S. would lead to favorable treatment [1][3] - Despite Japan's insistence on linking "reciprocal tariffs" with discussions on auto and steel tariffs, the U.S. rejected these demands and pressured Japan to increase imports of U.S. products [3][4] Group 2: Economic Impact on Japan - The Japanese automotive industry, a crucial sector, is particularly vulnerable, with exports to the U.S. projected to reach approximately 1.37 million vehicles in 2024, accounting for over one-third of Japan's total exports to the U.S. [4] - The imposition of a 25% tariff could severely impact Japanese automakers and their supply chains, prompting a potential shift in manufacturing to the U.S. [4] Group 3: Political Context and Responses - The timing of the tariff announcement coincides with Japan's upcoming Senate elections, where Prime Minister Kishida's approval ratings have fluctuated, creating additional political pressure [4] - Kishida has publicly stated Japan's commitment to protecting its national interests and has refused to compromise on key issues, particularly agriculture [5] Group 4: China-Japan Relations - Amidst the U.S. tariff threats, China announced a conditional resumption of imports of certain Japanese seafood products, which could provide Japan with some economic relief [5][7] - The resumption of imports is contingent upon Japan's compliance with international monitoring of its nuclear wastewater discharge, indicating a complex interplay of trade and environmental concerns [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing trade friction between the U.S. and Japan is unlikely to resolve quickly, and Japan may gain leverage in negotiations due to support from the Chinese market [8] - The potential for trilateral cooperation among China, Japan, and South Korea could enhance their collective bargaining power against U.S. pressures [8][10] - The U.S. strategy of imposing tariffs on allies may backfire, leading to increased resistance and closer ties among affected countries, which could diminish U.S. influence in global economic and political arenas [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose new tariffs on Japan and 13 other countries starting August 1, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% [3][5] - Japan has remained firm in negotiations, refusing to concede on key issues such as automotive tariffs and agricultural protections, leading to Trump's frustration [5][7] - Japan's automotive industry is crucial, with projected exports to the U.S. reaching 1.37 million vehicles in 2024, making it vulnerable to the new tariffs [5][9] Group 2 - China's recent decision to partially lift the ban on Japanese seafood imports provides unexpected support for Japan amid U.S. tariff pressures [7][9] - The timing of Trump's tariff announcement coincides with Japan's upcoming elections, suggesting a strategic move to increase domestic political pressure on Prime Minister Kishida [8][10] - The potential for a trilateral response from China, Japan, and South Korea against U.S. pressures is highlighted, indicating a shift in regional trade dynamics [10]