The Philippine central bank will consider lowering its key interest rate at its next policy meeting in August, according to Governor Eli Remolona, against a backdrop of slower inflation. https://t.co/9wPeiqFxil ...

Inflation Trends - The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation likely increased in June [1] - Tariffs are starting to exert upward pressure on consumer prices [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **US economy** and its interaction with **tariff policies** and **central bank strategies**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Forecast**: Economists predict that tariffs will initially cause a temporary inflation spike in Q3 2025, followed by a significant economic slowdown in Q4 2025, referred to as a "growth pothole" [16][13][41]. 2. **Tariff Impact**: The tariffs are viewed as a tax burden that will eventually affect consumers, although the full impact may not be felt immediately as importers have not fully passed on costs to consumers yet [23][28]. 3. **Customs Duties**: The customs duties collected in July 2025 are projected to reach **$340 billion**, which is **1.10% of nominal GDP**, significantly higher than the historical average of **0.25%** [29]. 4. **CEO Confidence**: There is a noted relationship between CEO confidence and economic performance, with current CEO confidence not indicating immediate threats to the economy despite tariff concerns [30][41]. 5. **Market Complacency**: Investors appear complacent regarding the potential impacts of tariffs, as evidenced by current market pricing and performance [15][62]. 6. **Inflation Projections**: Core PCE inflation is expected to peak in May 2026, with current pricing suggesting a transitory impact from tariffs [72][47]. 7. **Central Bank Decisions**: Central banks, particularly the **Swiss National Bank (SNB)**, have surprised markets with their decisions more frequently than others, such as the **Federal Reserve (Fed)** and **Bank of Japan (BoJ)** [73][45]. Additional Important Content 1. **Treasury Market Dynamics**: The Treasury market is expected to see stable coupon sizes until February 2027, with a tailored approach to liquidity management [5][65]. 2. **Equity Market Correlation**: The equity market and real economy often diverge until a recession occurs, at which point they tend to align [31][36]. 3. **Future Projections**: The economists' baseline view suggests that while inflationary pressures are anticipated, the growth slowdown may catch both the Fed and investors off guard, potentially leading to a stall in the equity market [47][41]. 4. **Currency Movements**: The analysis indicates that currency reactions are closely tied to central bank decisions, with notable movements observed in currencies like the **GBP** and **AUD** following unexpected policy changes [54][90]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between tariffs, economic forecasts, and central bank strategies.

The rising price of tea and meat help pushed UK food inflation to its highest level in 17 months, as retailers blamed the Labour government’s budget for driving up costs https://t.co/i0gQLLeGPy ...

Market Risks & Opportunities - The biggest risk to equity markets this week is the unemployment rate, particularly large-cap tech earnings, given high valuations and concentrated positioning [2] - Negative talk about earnings or capex guidance could create pressure [3] - Disruption in credit spreads and the long end of the yield curve are potential market disruptors [6] - International investors feel underweight in AI trade and US equities, representing a potential source of incremental demand [16] Labor Market & Fed Policy - A labor number repeating last month's performance (around 150 thousand jobs) with unemployment at 41% would be favorable [7] - The Fed is willing to cut rates in that environment if inflation cooperates [7] - A significant miss on labor data (below 75 thousand or 50 thousand jobs) is needed to notably lower the market [9] - An unemployment rate of 41% with friendly inflation creates a good macro environment, influencing debates on Fed rate cuts [8] Market Dynamics & Technicals - The market is rallying in a low-velocity way with underlying demand [10] - Approximately 12 trillion of stock buybacks are expected this year [10] - VIX term structure indicates awareness of potential landmines in the next three months [12] - Analog semis were underowned and have started to correct [15]

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its July meeting this week as chances of a cut in September hover around 60%. Joining me now, Stephen Juno, BFA security senior US economist as well as Terry Haynes, Pangia policy founder still with us. Uh Stephen, so um when we look at the expectations around Powell here, as I said, not the expectation that we will see any kind of cut to rates, but what do you think is going to be the message here from Pal this week.I think it's going ...

In Venezuela, cash is no longer king. Now, it is digital markets that are helping some Venezuelans cope with the returning scourge of inflation https://t.co/Y1pcTnXQT5Photo: Getty Images https://t.co/mNDmxikF4k ...

Consumer Behavior - Bank balances are growing more slowly than expected, indicating potential consumer struggles with inflation [1] - Research suggests a shift in consumer behavior, with more funds being transferred into investments [1] Financial Institution Performance - JPMorganChase reports the slower-than-expected growth in bank balances [1]

With high inflation such a recent memory, American consumers angrily insist that everything is already too expensive. Households have little tolerance for paying even higher prices. The opposite may be true of foreign companies https://t.co/DcWynwg5W1 ...

Core Insights - Amazon's low-cost essentials have seen an average price increase of 5% since President Trump's inauguration, as reported by The Wall Street Journal [1] - Amazon refuted the WSJ's findings, claiming that the analysis was flawed and that price changes were due to promotions ending rather than tariffs or inflation [2] - The company highlighted that its pricing is dynamic, which can lead to fluctuations, indicating sensitivity to the topic and potential concerns about government retaliation [3] Pricing Analysis - The WSJ analyzed 2,500 common items on Amazon, including cough drops and antibacterial wipes, to determine price changes [1] - Amazon pointed out that some items were on sale during the initial data collection, which skewed the findings [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.3% increase in consumer prices for June, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, suggesting broader inflationary trends [4]