Economic Outlook - The US economy is experiencing a slowdown but is not in a recession, with growth projected around high 1% and not quite reaching 2% through 2026 [1][2] - Historical long-term trend growth for the US is approximately 2% real GDP, indicating current growth is slightly below this trend [2] Federal Reserve Actions - Anticipation of a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with further cuts expected through 2026 [3][5] - The Fed is moving towards a neutral rate around 3%, allowing room for cuts [5] Fiscal Policy Impact - Fiscal policies are providing tailwinds for the economy, including benefits from a significant bill that stimulates both companies and individuals [3][4] - Tax benefits for individuals are projected to average between $2,000 to $2,500 per person in 2026 [4] Inflation Trends - Inflation is expected to continue decreasing, albeit at a slower rate, with challenges in reaching the Fed's 2% target [6][8] - Rents and housing costs are anticipated to contribute positively to the inflation narrative as they decline [7][8] Market Sentiment - The current dovish stance of the Fed is expected to remain, with a focus on balancing inflation concerns and employment [10][11] - The uncertainty regarding the leadership of the Fed may impact market sentiment and risk in 2026 [9]

President Donald Trump assured Americans they would “win” on daily prices and affordability when he returned to the White House in January 2025. And while certain costs have dropped, others have risen despite lower inflation. Check Out: 3 Safest Investments To Hold In The Current Trump Economy Discover Next: How Middle-Class Earners Are Quietly Becoming Millionaires — and How You Can, Too While not every bill advancing under the president’s second term is directly related to economic policy, consumers sti ...

Czech policymakers kept interest rates unchanged at the last four meetings, pointing to persistent services inflation and rapid wage growth https://t.co/AYiRrhObij ...

The RBI's last rate decision of the year is proving to be one of its trickiest, with policymakers having to weigh up record low inflation against a plunging currency and 8%-plus economic growth https://t.co/PbPV1H2XBO ...

RT Nick Szabo (@NickSzabo4)Interestingly enough though, if e.g. long inflation is a correct cosmological theory, even pessimistic creationist estimates imply that life would have arisen spontaneously a vast number of times in the universe -- albeit the odds of it arising in a given (from an arbitrary point in the universe) *observable* universe would be extremely low: such could be the vast difference in size between the total universe and the miniscule fraction of it that we can observe, under long inflati ...

Australia’s bond yields rose to the highest level this year amid growing speculation the central bank will switch back to raising interest rates to bring down inflation https://t.co/7XGYZzQaqR ...

RT Nick Szabo (@NickSzabo4)Interestingly enough though, if e.g. long inflation is a correct cosmological theory, even pessimistic creationist estimates imply that life would have arisen spontaneously a vast number of times in the universe -- albeit the odds of it arising in a given (from an arbitrary point in the universe) *observable* universe would be extremely low: such could be the vast difference in size between the total universe and the miniscule fraction of it that we can observe, under long inflati ...

Bets on rising consumer prices in Japan are keeping a lid on bond yields when adjusted for inflation, in turn reducing their ability to support the yen https://t.co/3cJjVLq2l2 ...

American investor and Shark Tank star Kevin O’Leary is pushing back against the growing conviction that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December and against the idea that crypto investors should be betting big on that outcome. “I don’t actually think the Fed's gonna cut in December,” O’Leary told Cointelegraph in an interview on Tuesday, adding that even if markets are wrong, it’s “not gonna make a difference to Bitcoin.” His comments come just as traders pile into bets that the Fed w ...

Core Insights - The federal government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, impacting the ability of agencies to provide timely information on inflation, employment, and economic growth [1] Economic Data Release Schedule - Agencies are working to catch up on missed economic reports following a 43-day shutdown, with several reports rescheduled, consolidated, or canceled [1] - New release dates include: - December 3: September industrial production and capacity utilization (originally scheduled for October 17) - December 5: September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, personal incomes and outlays (originally scheduled for October 31) - December 9: September and October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (originally scheduled for November 4 and December 2) - December 10: Q3 employment cost index (originally scheduled for October 31) - December 16: November U.S. employment report, including October payrolls (originally scheduled for November 7 and December 5; October household survey canceled) - December 18: November Consumer Price Index (CPI), including a subset of the October report (originally scheduled for November 13 and December 10) - December 23: Q3 Gross Domestic Product, initial estimate (advance GDP estimate scheduled for October 30 canceled; subsequent estimate originally scheduled for December 19 postponed) - December 23: October and November industrial production and capacity utilization (originally scheduled for November 18 and December 16) [1] Pending Reports - Several reports still need to be rescheduled, including: - September housing starts (originally scheduled for October 17) - September new home sales (originally scheduled for October 24) - September advanced reports on trade deficit, wholesale inventories, and retail inventories (originally scheduled for October 29) - September U.S. trade deficit (originally scheduled for November 4) - September business inventories (originally scheduled for November) - October retail sales (originally scheduled for November) - October PCE price index, personal incomes and outlays (originally scheduled for November 26) [1]