Bond Market Overview - The US is cutting interest rates while the Bank of Japan has raised rates to 30-year highs, impacting global yields [1] - The 10-year and 30-year bond yields are reaching multi-decade highs due to these changes [1] Economic Sentiment - The University of Michigan sentiment index reported a historically low current situation score, the lowest since the 1970s at 52.9% [2] - This low confidence level typically correlates with declining equity markets, yet equities are currently rising, indicating a disconnect [3] Inflation and Market Reactions - Recent CPI data has been deemed inaccurate, yet the market seems to overlook this, with yields on both 2-year and 10-year bonds increasing [4][5] - The French 10-year bond yield closed at 3.61%, marking a 14-year high, while the Japanese 10-year yield surpassed 2%, a 26-year high [6] Global Interest Rate Trends - The tightening of global monetary policy, particularly from Japan, is affecting investment strategies and arbitrage opportunities worldwide [7]

Let's check in on the bond markets now. While the US is cutting rates, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 30-year highs. And that has yields on the move globally, pushing its 10 and 30-year to multi-deade highs, as you can see there.Rick Santelli is tracking all the action in the bond report. Rick, what can you tell us. >> Absolutely.And we'll get to the foreign global interest rates in a second, but you know, this morning, University of Michigan sentiment, it was definitely weak. current uh situati ...

Market Overview - Value stocks have shown signs of life, outperforming the market in the current quarter, with S&P value leading [1][2] - Only two of the FAANG stocks have outperformed the market this year, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to stay invested and avoid trying to time the market, focusing on less popular sectors that are not leading the market [3][5] - Healthcare is highlighted as a favorable sector due to its affordability and lower economic sensitivity, making it a good option if the economy slows [3][5] Stock Picks - UPS and Kimberly Clark are identified as attractive investment opportunities, both down nearly 50% from their highs, with Kimberly Clark offering a PE of 12 compared to its usual 19 and a safe dividend yield of 5% [6][10] - UPS has seen a significant drop of 60% from its highs, but the company is moving away from its reliance on Amazon, which could improve its performance [11] Market Trends - There is a belief that the current inflationary environment will persist, similar to trends seen in the 1970s, which could benefit materials and commodities [13]

Food Price Trends - The analysis suggests food prices will not remain as high as in 2025 due to the anticipated easing of certain commodity prices and tariff dynamics [1][2][3] - Companies like General Mills and PepsiCo are already lowering prices, raising the question of whether these price reductions will be sustainable [5] - The unwinding of COVID-era inflation is contributing to savings for consumers on grocery items [6] Consumer Behavior & Economic Impact - The report highlights a "K-shaped" economy, emphasizing the impact of pricing on low-income consumers' consumption of daily use consumer staples [7][8] - High-income consumers' consumption of daily use categories is less sensitive to economic conditions compared to low-income consumers [8] - Volume drag from low-income consumers will be a key indicator in 2026 [8][9] Top Picks & Investment Opportunities - Top picks for the next year include Coke, Monster, and Vitita Cocoa (coconut water) [9] - Vitita Cocoa benefits from structural growth as a workout and recovery drink, and from tariff exemptions [9][10] Company Performance - Lamb Weston's margin improvement and outlook, particularly in international markets, have been disappointing [12] - Lamb Weston's sales were in line with expectations, but margin improvement was the key issue [12][13]

Eurozone consumer sentiment unexpectedly weakened in December despite cooling inflation and economic resilience against tariffs https://t.co/fFLzXf9Hk5 ...

Definitely things are um a lot more money. >> I mean, I'm going to see family, but as far as like, you know, being able to get like gifts for everybody, that's a little bit difficult right now. >> To me, everything is like a very expensive.There's been a lot of conversations about like, oh, we should do like experience gifts and things like that because um everything is just so much more expensive now. We've always done what we call secondhand Christmas where we try to focus on buying things secondhand to m ...

What were the larger forces that kept inflation down and have they gone away. >> Well, a very important force that was keeping inflation down was globalization. It was the case after China entered the WTO 25 years ago that goods were coming out of China and was holding goods prices down.At the same time, immigration globally also went up. That also messed that the cost of labor and wage inflation was also held down. So those forces were weighing on inflation for literally two decades after 2000 because we s ...

Now to shift gears and get some insights on the news that is shaping the overall markets. For that, we'd like to welcome in Dale Smothers, president and CEO at RDS Wealth Management. Dale, thanks so much for being with us on this Friday.I mean, looking back at the year that was in 2025. Why do you think the this bull market is still met with so much caution. >> Jenny, you're exactly right.It was the uh climbing the wall of worry is an analogy that I like to use. This this market has been resilient. The cons ...

Core Insights - Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) reported a decline in both earnings and sales for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, reflecting a challenging consumer environment and lower volumes, partially offset by productivity gains and strong performance in certain growth categories [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were 45 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents, but down 35.7% year over year due to lower adjusted operating profit [2] - Net sales decreased by 6.8% year over year to $2,979.1 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,990 million, with a 3.9% headwind from M&A and a 3% decline in organic net sales [3][11] - Organic net sales fell 3% due to a 3% decline in volume, while price/mix remained flat, with management noting a 100-basis-point headwind from retailer purchasing patterns [4][11] - Adjusted gross profit declined 17.1% to $698 million, with adjusted gross margin contracting 292 basis points to 23.4% [5] Segment Performance - Grocery & Snacks segment net sales fell 8.5% year over year to $1,209 million, impacted by a 7.0% adverse M&A effect and a 1.5% decline in organic net sales [6] - Refrigerated & Frozen segment net sales decreased by 6.5% to $1,251 million, with a 5.1% drop in organic net sales [7] - International segment sales declined 5.4% to $230 million, reflecting a 4.1% M&A impact and a 2.9% fall in organic net sales [8] - Foodservice sales decreased 1.3% to $288 million, with organic performance reflecting a 4.2% benefit from price/mix, offset by a 4.0% volume decline [9] Financial Health - In the first half of fiscal 2026, Conagra generated net cash from operating activities of $331 million, with capital expenditures totaling $219 million, resulting in free cash flow of $113 million [12] - The company ended the second quarter with net debt of $7.6 billion and paid a dividend of 35 cents per share [12] Future Outlook - Conagra reiterated its fiscal 2026 outlook, projecting organic net sales to range from a decline of 1% to growth of 1% compared to fiscal 2025, with adjusted EPS anticipated between $1.70 and $1.85 [13] - The outlook factors in continued elevated inflation in the cost of goods sold, with core inflation expected to be slightly above 4% [14] - Total cost of goods sold inflation is projected at approximately 7%, with measures expected to raise costs by roughly 3% annually before mitigation efforts [15]

Widening the band within which the peso moves risks a modest rise in inflation, but that is less of a problem for Argentina’s government with midterms out of the way. Still, this is far from a full currency float https://t.co/onxloCNuZd ...