Market Overview - Major U.S. index futures indicate a higher open on Monday, suggesting a continuation of the rebound seen last Friday [1] - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 reached their lowest closing levels in over two months last Thursday due to concerns about valuations and interest rates [2] - Positive sentiment is emerging from progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine [2][3] Economic Indicators - Traders are awaiting the release of delayed U.S. economic data, including retail sales, producer prices, and durable goods orders for September [3][4] - The upcoming reports could influence the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve's December meeting [4] Stock Performance - On Friday, the Dow rose by 493.15 points (1.1%) to 46,245.41, the Nasdaq increased by 195.03 points (0.9%) to 22,273.08, and the S&P 500 climbed by 64.23 points (1.0%) to 6,602.99 [5] - Despite the Friday rebound, all major averages posted significant weekly losses: Nasdaq down 2.7%, S&P 500 down 2.0%, and Dow down 1.9% [5] Interest Rate Outlook - Optimism regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has increased, with the probability rising to 71.5% from 39.1% [6] - New York Federal Reserve President John Williams indicated that monetary policy is "modestly restrictive" and suggested room for further rate adjustments [7] Sector Performance - Housing stocks performed well, with the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index increasing by 4.0% [9] - Airline stocks also showed strength, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index rising by 3.0% [10] - Other sectors, including biotechnology, oil service, healthcare, and computer hardware, experienced upward movements [10] Commodity and Currency Markets - Crude oil futures increased slightly to $58.08 per barrel after a previous drop [11] - Gold futures rose to $4,082.60 per ounce following a prior increase [11] - The U.S. dollar strengthened against the yen and euro, trading at 156.92 yen and $1.1538 respectively [11] Asian Market Activity - Asian stocks ended mixed, with Japanese markets closed for a holiday, but sentiment was supported by hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut and easing Ukraine-Russia tensions [12] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index surged by 2.0%, driven by positive performance in chip-related stocks and Alibaba's growth [15] European Market Activity - European stocks mostly rose, buoyed by hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut and progress in Ukraine peace talks [18] - The German DAX Index increased by 0.8%, while Bayer's shares rose sharply following positive study results [19][20]

Group 1 - Recent layoffs by major U.S. employers, including 14,000 jobs at Amazon, 48,000 at UPS, and 1,800 at Target, have left thousands jobless and could impact the economy [1][2] - Layoffs are expected to decrease consumer confidence, leading individuals to delay major purchases, particularly those requiring financing [4][5] - The "headline effect" may cause individuals to feel less optimistic about the economy, even if their own jobs are secure [6][7] Group 2 - A widespread lack of consumer confidence could lead to lower interest rates, as people become more sensitive to interest rate changes [7] - Lower interest rates may reduce monthly mortgage payments, easing financial pressure and potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to consider cuts to support spending and borrowing [8] - Job losses typically result in reduced discretionary spending, affecting sectors like entertainment, travel, and dining [9]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has reduced its target interest rate three times in 2024 and has announced a second rate cut for 2025, impacting deposit account rates and presenting a potential opportunity for locking in high certificate of deposit (CD) rates [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - As of November 24, 2025, the highest CD rate available is 4.1% APY, offered by Marcus by Goldman Sachs for a 14-month CD and Sallie Mae for a 15-month CD [2] - Today's average CD rates are among the highest seen in nearly two decades, largely due to the Federal Reserve's actions to combat inflation by maintaining elevated interest rates [3] Group 2: National Average CD Rates - The highest national average interest rate for CDs is 1.68% for a 1-year term, significantly lower than the best available rates [3] - Online banks and credit unions typically offer more competitive rates compared to traditional banks, making them a better option for consumers seeking higher returns [3] Group 3: Finding the Best CD Rates - It is advisable for consumers to shop around and compare CD rates from various financial institutions to find the best options [4] - Online banks often provide higher interest rates on CDs due to lower overhead costs, making them a preferred choice for consumers [4] - Consumers should check minimum deposit requirements and review account terms, including early withdrawal penalties and auto-renewal policies, to ensure they select a CD that aligns with their financial goals [4]

Market Overview - Asian shares were mostly higher, with U.S. futures advancing after a positive end to Wall Street last week [1] - The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose 1.8% to 25,667.24, driven by a 5.1% gain in Alibaba due to strong demand for its Qwen AI app [1] - The Shanghai Composite index remained virtually unchanged at 3,834.69 [1] Regional Performance - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.3% to 8,525.10 [2] - South Korea's Kospi fell 0.2% to 3,846.06 due to heavy selling in the automotive sector [2] - Taiwan's Taiex increased by 0.3%, while India's Sensex was flat [2] U.S. Market Sentiment - Futures for the S&P 500 rose 0.5% and for the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.2% [2] - The upcoming Thanksgiving holiday will see U.S. markets closed on Thursday, followed by Black Friday and Cyber Monday [2] Economic Focus - Traders are shifting focus to consumer spending, which drives two-thirds of U.S. GDP, amid a lack of economic data during the government shutdown [3] - Holiday activity indicators such as foot traffic and card authorizations are becoming increasingly important in the current data-scarce environment [4] Stock Market Performance - On Friday, the S&P 500 gained 1% to 6,602.99, the Dow climbed 1.1% to 46,245.41, and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.9% to 22,273.08, with nearly 90% of S&P 500 stocks advancing [4] Market Volatility - The S&P 500 is currently 4.2% below its record, experiencing significant hour-to-hour swings reminiscent of earlier sell-offs [5] - Key questions remain regarding whether asset prices, particularly for Nvidia and bitcoin, have risen too high and the future of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [5][6] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams indicated potential for further interest rate adjustments, while other officials caution against a December cut due to persistent inflation [6] - In the bond market, Treasury yields eased, with a nearly 72% probability of a December rate cut, up from 39% the previous day [7]

Market Overview - The US stock market finished higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.0%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 493 points (1.1%), and the Nasdaq composite rising 0.9% [1][12] - The S&P 500 is now just 4.2% below its record, despite experiencing significant volatility throughout the week [2] Investor Sentiment - Investors are grappling with sharp swings in stock prices, reminiscent of the sell-off in April, raising concerns about whether prices for high-profile stocks like Nvidia and Bitcoin have become too inflated [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions is contributing to market volatility, with some officials advocating against further cuts due to persistent inflation [5] Company Performance - Nvidia's stock experienced significant fluctuations, dropping 4.3% before closing down 1%, despite a strong profit report [8][11] - Retailers like Gap and Ross Stores saw substantial gains, with Gap jumping 8.2% and Ross Stores rising 8.4% after reporting better-than-expected profits [11][12] - Homebuilders also performed well, with D.R. Horton up 6.8%, Lennar rising 5.9%, and PulteGroup gaining 5.2%, driven by hopes of lower mortgage rates [12] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin briefly fell below $81,000 before recovering to around $85,000, down from nearly $125,000 last month [9] Market Dynamics - Despite the volatility, nearly 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 rose, indicating that the overall market strength may be overshadowed by the performance of large tech stocks [10] - The bond market reacted positively to expectations of potential interest rate cuts, with a significant increase in the probability of a December cut from 39% to nearly 72% [13]

Labor Market and Economic Conditions - Labor-market conditions showed improvement after a summer low, but the onset of a government shutdown has led to renewed weakness in spending and hiring [1] - Firms are focusing on cost-cutting measures, including technology adoption and reduced hiring [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider a rate cut in December to support the fragile economic recovery [1][7] Retail Sector Performance - Retail companies like Walmart Inc. and Gap Inc. reported strong quarterly sales, particularly appealing to higher-income consumers [3] - Home Depot Inc. indicated that many consumers are delaying remodeling projects and large purchases due to economic uncertainty [3] - Consumer sentiment is at its lowest since 2009, with increased concerns about job security [3][4] Consumer Spending Trends - Discretionary spending is primarily driven by upper-income shoppers benefiting from stock market gains, while lower-income consumers are affected by rising costs of essential items [4] - Retail demand remained resilient over the summer, contributing to economic growth in Q3, but there are concerns that consumer spending may decline as hiring slows [4][5] Upcoming Economic Data - Key US economic data to be released includes the producer price index and durable goods orders for September, along with weekly jobless claims [2] - Economists predict a 0.4% increase in retail sales for September, following a 0.6% gain in August [5]

Economic Developments - Japan's government approved a JPY 21.3 trillion ($135.5 billion) economic stimulus package, marking the largest since the COVID pandemic, with JPY 17.7 trillion in new spending [28][53] - Japan's inflation rate increased to 3% in October, aligning with market expectations, and has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 43 consecutive months [52][54] - The U.K. government is facing a borrowing overshoot in October, leading to plans for tax increases and spending cuts in the upcoming budget [5] Currency and Trade - The Indian rupee fell to a record low against the dollar amid uncertainty regarding a potential U.S. trade deal [3] - The U.S. is considering lifting tariffs on EU goods, including beef and other foods, to help maintain affordable grocery prices [4] - Trump's administration lifted a 40% tariff on certain Brazilian agricultural products, including coffee and beef, to help reduce domestic food prices [6] Corporate News - Netflix, Comcast, and Paramount Skydance submitted bids for Warner Bros. Discovery by the November 20 deadline [5] - OpenAI is partnering with Hon Hai to design and manufacture hardware for data centers, with Hon Hai planning to invest up to $5 billion in U.S. manufacturing [5] - AnaptysBio shares fell 15% after GSK initiated litigation against the company [4] Market Performance - The S&P 500 experienced its sharpest intraday reversal since April, with a decline of 1.56% after initially rising [42][50] - Bitcoin is on track for its worst monthly performance since the June 2022 crypto crash, down 35% from its October highs [10][43] - Gap Inc. shares rose 4.5% after reporting stronger-than-expected sales, indicating effective marketing strategies [11] Central Bank Insights - The Fed's Anna Paulson expressed caution ahead of the December meeting, indicating that each rate cut raises the bar for the next [7][13] - JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley's economists no longer expect a rate cut in December, citing a rebound in payrolls [13][27] - The Congressional Budget Office revised its estimate of Trump's tariffs' impact on deficits to approximately $3 trillion over the next 10 years, down from $4 trillion [9]

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK (Reuters) -The likelihood of bitcoin (BTC-USD)ending the year below $90,000 has risen to 50%, according to online options platform Derive.xyz, as traders ramped up hedging against more declines in the world's largest cryptocurrency. On the other hand, the options market has assigned ​just a 30% chance of bitcoin finishing 2025 above $100,000. Bitcoin was last down 4.2% at $86,681.41 on Thursday, after earlier falling to a ‌seven-month low. It rose to an all-time peak ...

Group 1: Market Performance - US stocks experienced a significant surge, with the Nasdaq Composite rising approximately 2.5%, the S&P 500 increasing over 1.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.3% or over 500 points [1][2] - The surge was primarily driven by Nvidia's strong earnings report, which helped restore confidence in the AI sector [1][3] Group 2: Nvidia's Earnings - Nvidia's stock rose nearly 5% in early trading following an earnings beat and a stronger-than-expected revenue outlook for Q4 [3] - CEO Jensen Huang highlighted that demand for the company's Blackwell processors is "off the charts," alleviating concerns about a potential long-term slowdown in AI-related stocks [3] Group 3: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The September nonfarm payrolls report indicated that the US economy added 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected gain of 51,000 [4] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August, contrary to expectations of it remaining unchanged [4] - Following the jobs report, options traders adjusted their expectations, pricing in around 42% odds of a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in December, up from 28% earlier that morning [5] Group 4: Federal Reserve Insights - Minutes from the Fed's October meeting revealed a divide among policymakers regarding the risks posed by a cooling labor market versus persistent inflation [7] - This uncertainty contributed to speculation about the Fed's decision on interest rates in December, with some officials indicating no further rate cuts are anticipated [7] Group 5: Walmart's Performance - Walmart raised its full-year forecasts after reporting better-than-expected profit and sales in Q3, leading to a jump in its shares [8] - The retailer's performance is viewed as an indicator of consumer strength heading into the holiday season [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - US stocks experienced a climb on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way, rising approximately 0.5% after an earlier increase of about 2.5% [2] - The S&P 500 added nearly 0.4% after gaining as much as 1.8% in early trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 0.3% [2] Group 2: Nvidia Earnings - Nvidia's stock surged nearly 5% in early trading following an earnings beat and a stronger-than-expected revenue outlook for Q4, with CEO Jensen Huang noting that demand for Blackwell processors is "off the charts" [3] Group 3: Employment Data - The September nonfarm payrolls report indicated that the US economy added 119,000 jobs, significantly above the expected 51,000, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in August [4] - Following the jobs report, options traders adjusted their expectations, pricing in around 42% odds of a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in December, up from 28% earlier that morning [5] Group 4: Federal Reserve Insights - Minutes from the Fed's October meeting revealed a divide among policymakers regarding whether a cooling labor market or persistent inflation poses a greater risk to the economy, contributing to uncertainty about the December decision [7] Group 5: Walmart Earnings - Walmart raised its full-year forecasts after beating profit and sales expectations in Q3, with shares jumping as investors viewed the report as indicative of consumer strength heading into the holiday season [8]