Core Insights - Financial conditions are expected to remain tight through 2026 due to persistent inflation and potential new tariffs that could further increase costs [1] Group 1: Budget Adjustments - Rising costs of essentials like groceries, utilities, and child care may indicate that budgets are outdated, necessitating regular reviews to align with new price realities in 2026 [3] - Inflation and new tariffs can diminish real purchasing power, prompting the need to track monthly leftover cash to ensure income keeps pace with rising costs [4] - Fixed expenses consuming more than 50% of take-home pay signal a need for reassessment, as high fixed costs limit savings and investment opportunities [5] Group 2: Lifestyle and Spending Habits - Lifestyle creep, characterized by increased discretionary spending that outpaces income growth, requires a comparison of current expenditures to previous years to identify necessary budget adjustments [6] - Over-reliance on credit or savings indicates a misalignment between budget and reality, necessitating a recalibration to avoid using debt for basic needs [7] Group 3: Tax Considerations - Changes in tax rules under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act for 2026 could impact net income, particularly for high earners and entrepreneurs, highlighting the importance of staying informed about new deductions and thresholds [8]

Core Insights - The rise in auto loan delinquencies and repossessions indicates increasing financial strain on American households, with over 2.5 million cars repossessed last year and projections of 3 million this year, the highest since 2009 [1] - Auto finance represents a significant portion of consumer credit, totaling over $1.6 trillion across more than 100 million active accounts, highlighting its importance in the overall credit landscape [2] - The current economic indicators suggest a potential recession, with climbing auto loan default rates mirroring trends seen before the Great Recession, and a slowdown in hiring and consumer spending [3][4][5] Group 1: Auto Loan Delinquencies and Repossessions - Auto loan delinquencies have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with a notable increase in defaults and repossessions [1] - The number of repossessions is projected to reach 3 million this year, indicating a significant rise in financial distress among borrowers [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The Consumer Federation of America reports that auto loan default rates are increasing at rates similar to those before the Great Recession, suggesting a potential economic downturn [3] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported only 22,000 new jobs in August 2025, with a revised total of 911,000 jobs for 2024, indicating a slowdown in job growth [4] - The Conference Board has revised its GDP growth projection for 2025 down to 1.6%, from 2.8% in 2024, reflecting declining consumer expectations and potential economic contraction [5] Group 3: Mixed Economic Signals - Despite rising delinquencies, some indicators suggest that households are not yet defaulting on debts at alarming rates, with a steady transition from short-term to long-term delinquencies [6]

Stock market bears have predicted like 4 recessions this year.They have been wrong every time. ...

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.14% as of November 14, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.62% and the 30-year note at 4.74% [1] - The 10-2 spread is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions, with a lead time of 18 to 92 weeks [2] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date gives an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2 - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is influenced by the Federal Funds Rate (FFR), which has recently seen mortgage rates decline despite the Fed holding rates steady, with the latest rate at 6.24% [7] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates recession lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed as in the 10-2 spread [5] - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Wealth Composition - Stocks represent 21% of American household wealth [1] AI Impact - AI-related assets account for nearly half of the increase in American household wealth over the past year [1] Economic Outlook - A recession could potentially follow [1]

Group 1 - Investors are concerned about the inevitability of a future recession, although the timing remains uncertain [1] - Rida Morwa, with over 35 years of experience in investment banking, advises on high-yield investment strategies since 1991 [1] - The Investing Group High Dividend Opportunities aims for sustainable income through high-yield investments with a targeted safe yield of over 9% [1] Group 2 - The service includes a model portfolio with buy/sell alerts, preferred and baby bond portfolios for conservative investors, and regular market updates [1] - The philosophy of the service emphasizes community, education, and the importance of not investing alone [1]

Market Risk - An AI bubble burst could lead to an unusual recession [1]

Economic Outlook - Some suggest that an economy needs occasional downturns to stay healthy [1] - The world is experiencing a "recession recession," leading to increasing costs [1]

Economic Concerns & Affordability Crisis - The economy in the DMV area (DC, Maryland, Virginia) is in a recession due to the current administration's policies [1] - Many constituents are feeling a disconnect between the President's claims of a strong economy and their lived experiences, particularly regarding affordability [1] - The shutdown was an exclamation mark on months of attacks on Virginia jobs and economy [1] - There's a perception that the administration is out of touch with the economic realities faced by average Americans, focusing on issues like the "price of Greenland" rather than the "price of groceries" [1] - The affordability crisis includes high rent, unaffordable housing, and expensive groceries, impacting voters' decisions [2] - Some Americans are making difficult choices, such as eating inexpensive meals to afford healthy food for their families, while the President is perceived as focusing on luxury [6] Political Implications & Healthcare - Voters punished those who didn't stand up for them against economic hardship [1] - Republicans face political damage if they don't address the healthcare affordability crisis, particularly regarding ACA tax premiums [8][9][10] - A poll indicated that a Republican candidate trails by 15 points if they let the premium tax credit expire, showing bipartisan support for its extension [9] Government Shutdown & Impact on Workers - The government shutdown inflicted maximum pain on Americans, exemplified by the willingness to allow 40 to 1 million Americans to go hungry [1] - Federal workers, including air traffic controllers, have faced abuse, financial hardship, and job losses due to the administration's actions [16][17] - Air traffic controllers are taking on odd jobs to make ends meet, highlighting the economic strain [15][16] - Some federal workers are making $50 to $60 thousand a year in small airports [17]

The longer the “recession recession” continues, the more that three risks—financial, fiscal and allocative—will grow https://t.co/52bzaEzkL7Illustration: Timo Lenzen https://t.co/E8srHZ1jEh ...