Stock market bears have predicted like 4 recessions this year.They have been wrong every time. ...

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.14% as of November 14, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.62% and the 30-year note at 4.74% [1] - The 10-2 spread is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions, with a lead time of 18 to 92 weeks [2] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date gives an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2 - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is influenced by the Federal Funds Rate (FFR), which has recently seen mortgage rates decline despite the Fed holding rates steady, with the latest rate at 6.24% [7] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates recession lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed as in the 10-2 spread [5] - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Wealth Composition - Stocks represent 21% of American household wealth [1] AI Impact - AI-related assets account for nearly half of the increase in American household wealth over the past year [1] Economic Outlook - A recession could potentially follow [1]

Group 1 - Investors are concerned about the inevitability of a future recession, although the timing remains uncertain [1] - Rida Morwa, with over 35 years of experience in investment banking, advises on high-yield investment strategies since 1991 [1] - The Investing Group High Dividend Opportunities aims for sustainable income through high-yield investments with a targeted safe yield of over 9% [1] Group 2 - The service includes a model portfolio with buy/sell alerts, preferred and baby bond portfolios for conservative investors, and regular market updates [1] - The philosophy of the service emphasizes community, education, and the importance of not investing alone [1]

Market Risk - An AI bubble burst could lead to an unusual recession [1]

Economic Outlook - Some suggest that an economy needs occasional downturns to stay healthy [1] - The world is experiencing a "recession recession," leading to increasing costs [1]

Economic Concerns & Affordability Crisis - The economy in the DMV area (DC, Maryland, Virginia) is in a recession due to the current administration's policies [1] - Many constituents are feeling a disconnect between the President's claims of a strong economy and their lived experiences, particularly regarding affordability [1] - The shutdown was an exclamation mark on months of attacks on Virginia jobs and economy [1] - There's a perception that the administration is out of touch with the economic realities faced by average Americans, focusing on issues like the "price of Greenland" rather than the "price of groceries" [1] - The affordability crisis includes high rent, unaffordable housing, and expensive groceries, impacting voters' decisions [2] - Some Americans are making difficult choices, such as eating inexpensive meals to afford healthy food for their families, while the President is perceived as focusing on luxury [6] Political Implications & Healthcare - Voters punished those who didn't stand up for them against economic hardship [1] - Republicans face political damage if they don't address the healthcare affordability crisis, particularly regarding ACA tax premiums [8][9][10] - A poll indicated that a Republican candidate trails by 15 points if they let the premium tax credit expire, showing bipartisan support for its extension [9] Government Shutdown & Impact on Workers - The government shutdown inflicted maximum pain on Americans, exemplified by the willingness to allow 40 to 1 million Americans to go hungry [1] - Federal workers, including air traffic controllers, have faced abuse, financial hardship, and job losses due to the administration's actions [16][17] - Air traffic controllers are taking on odd jobs to make ends meet, highlighting the economic strain [15][16] - Some federal workers are making $50 to $60 thousand a year in small airports [17]

The longer the “recession recession” continues, the more that three risks—financial, fiscal and allocative—will grow https://t.co/52bzaEzkL7Illustration: Timo Lenzen https://t.co/E8srHZ1jEh ...

Market Cycle Analysis - The crypto market has historically followed the business cycle, potentially extending into 2026, suggesting a prolonged bull market [2] - Macro analysts suggest the crypto market cycle is no longer solely based on Bitcoin halving but correlates with the economic cycle, particularly the ISM Manufacturing Index [6][7] - The ISM, an indicator of economic activity, has historically correlated with Bitcoin's cycle tops and bottoms, but this pattern has recently broken [9][10] - An extended debt refinancing cycle, with average debt maturity increasing to approximately 54 years due to the pandemic, may be extending the liquidity and crypto cycles [12] Liquidity and Economic Indicators - Some analysts argue that economic indicators like the ISM are misleading and have unclear correlation with global liquidity [16] - Global liquidity, measured by Global M2, has risen, but Bitcoin's price has flatlined, weakening the correlation between the two [18] - Central bank policies and debt refinancing challenges could lead to a contraction in global liquidity, potentially impacting the crypto market [20][21] - Economic data may be deceptive due to factors like inflation and unemployment rates, making the economy appear stronger than it is [26][27] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The crypto market is expected to continue a gradual upward trend, mirroring the overall economy [40] - Assuming a recession is avoided, Q4 2025 is projected to be bullish, with Bitcoin potentially reaching its cycle top, followed by Ethereum and altcoins approximately one month later [47][48] - The current crypto market cycle differs from previous cycles due to less loose monetary policy, more mature regulatory frameworks, and different patterns of retail participation [44][45] - AI-related ventures have significantly contributed to economic growth, particularly in the US, impacting sectors like chip manufacturing and infrastructure [36][37]

Market Trends & Economic Disparities - AI stocks gains have added $5 trillion to household wealth in the last year [1] - Americans gained over $63 trillion in wealth from Q1 2020 through Q2 2025 [1] - The stock market is performing well, but the average household doesn't seem to be participating [2] - The economy is K-shaped, with the upper end driving consumer spending and the lower end struggling with inflation [4] - The lower-income cohort is at or near a recession, with unemployment rates twice the national average [4][5][6] Equity Ownership & Wealth Distribution - 62% of Americans own US equities [3] - Equity ownership is bifurcated: 84% for households with over $100,000, and 22% for households with under $50,000 [3] - Asset holders, including those holding stocks, metals, and crypto, have generally done well [10] Retail & Consumer Behavior - A K-shaped economy is playing out across retail and fast food [7][8] - Wendy's reported almost a 5% decline in same-store sales in the US [7] - McDonald's is resonating with low-income consumers by offering value meals at $5 and $8 price points [8] - Student loan repayments are hurting Gen Z [9] Investment Strategies & Inflation - Those who waited for a better time to enter the market effectively "shorted" the market [11] - People are buying assets to get ahead of inflation, as the value of money decreases [12]