📉 ADM ISI Chief Economist & Global Strategist Marc Ostwald (@MOstwald1) says recession fears may be exaggerated:“If people expect a 1–2% contraction, that’s probably over-egging it. We’re talking about something closer to -0.5%—not encouraging for risk appetite, but not an ‘oh my goodness’ moment. Governments have too much debt and little fiscal headroom to borrow more.” ...

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market is experiencing a strong rally, driven by positive earnings, steady economic conditions, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, although Goldman Sachs has identified potential risks that could impact stock prices [1][2][5]. Economic Conditions - The US economy is perceived to be in a favorable position, with resilient growth and signs of weakness in certain sectors, such as the job market, which may allow for interest rate cuts by the Fed [2][5]. - August inflation data met economists' expectations, maintaining optimism for future rate cuts [3]. Market Risks - Goldman Sachs highlighted two primary risks that could hinder the stock market's upward momentum: concerns about a potential recession and a possible reduction in expectations for Fed rate cuts [5]. - The market has been buoyed by weak job growth and slowing manufacturing activity, which have supported the case for rate cuts, but this situation could change rapidly [6]. Recession Concerns - There is an ongoing concern about a potential recession, although investors have largely dismissed these risks, with the market-implied US forward growth rate estimated at around 1.6%, indicating expectations for growth near historical norms [7]. - A continued weakening in the job market could shift investor sentiment, especially if the unemployment rate rises sharply, which would prompt the market to anticipate earlier rate cuts and put pressure on equities [8][9].

Recession Outlook - Jordy Visser believes there is no possibility of a recession due to government and Fed intervention preventing massive job losses [2] - Nominal GDP is growing at 3%, supported by revenue growth for companies and the buildout of AI [3][4] - The economy is undergoing a significant change with consumption driven by healthcare, alongside growing industrial needs in power, pumps, batteries, and solar [7][8] Oracle's Performance - Oracle's stock surged 41%, reaching a market cap of $954 billion [8] - Larry Ellison owns 43% of Oracle, valued at $410 billion [9] - Since 2011, Oracle has spent $155 billion on buybacks, reducing shares from 5 billion to under 3 billion [9] Open Door's Strategy - Open Door hired a new CEO from Shopify with a $1 per year salary, incentivized by stock appreciation [10][11] - The new CEO could potentially earn $6 billion if the stock reaches $82 a share [11] - The company aims to become lean and drive more revenue with the new leadership [13][14]

Group 1: Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.06% as of September 12, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.56% and the 30-year note at 4.68% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965, including the impact of the 1973 oil embargo [2] Group 2: Inverted Yield Curve and Recession Indicators - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable leading indicator for recessions [2] - The average lead time to a recession from the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 3: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [7] - The latest Freddie Mac survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.35%, the lowest since October 2024 [7] Group 4: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Market Predictions - J.P. Morgan predicts a slight decline in the stock market, forecasting the S&P 500 to end the year around 6,000, a decrease of about 6% from its current level of approximately 6,400 [2][3] - The firm anticipates a 40% chance of recession by the end of 2025, a reduction from a previous estimate of 60% [3][4] Economic Factors - The predictions are influenced by political uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs and inflation's impact on the U.S. economy, leading to sluggish growth due to high interest rates [3][4] - J.P. Morgan expects higher inflation prints in the coming months, which could negatively affect consumer spending and increase recession risks [4] Commodity Market Outlook - In the commodity markets, J.P. Morgan forecasts that gold will continue to outperform, driven by political uncertainty and market volatility [5][6] - Oil prices are expected to drop into the mid-$60 range due to an increase in global oil inventories, with nearly 240 million new barrels added since February [5] Additional Market Predictions - J.P. Morgan has set specific targets for various indices: 345 for the MSCI Eurozone, 9,000 for the FTSE 100, 3,000 for the TOPIX, and 1,250 for the MSCI EM [7]

From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano0:00 Will There Be A Recession Soon?2:37 Larry Ellison Tops Elon Musk As World’s Richest Person3:28 Opendoor’s CEO’s Insane Pay PackageEnjoy! https://t.co/lyzy4hX0Kv ...

America's labor market is showing serious cracks. Hiring has cooled off, layoffs are climbing, and those help wanted signs are quietly disappearing from storefronts across the country. So, is this the start of a recession that will crush markets.Or is it just the kind of economic hiccup that brings the rate cuts everyone has been begging for without triggering a full-blown panic. Today, we're cutting through the economic noise and breaking down what this labor wobble actually means for your portfolio. My na ...

Market Outlook & Fed Policy - The market is pulling back despite CPI being in line and jobless claims potentially leading to a rate cut [1] - The resumption of the Fed's easing cycle is the number one factor for the following week [1] - Easing, driven by labor market weakness, combined with strong earnings and capex intentions, creates a constructive market setup for the next 6 months [2] - The independence of the Fed is critical for US and global capital markets, and threats to it could impact the long end of the curve [5] - Potential market reaction to threats to Fed independence could raise inflation and bond yields [5] Interest Rates & Economy - The current 10-year Treasury yield range is considered near the bottom at 4% to 48% [6] - Upward pressure on the 10-year yield is possible due to concerns about Fed independence and fiscal spending [6] - Modest easing may not significantly impact housing affordability or credit creation but could manage the pace of economic slowdown [12] - A 25 basis point rate cut is expected, but traders are still considering a 50 basis point cut [13] Sector Analysis - Financials are a potential beneficiary of a bull steepener as the Fed cuts rates [14] - A steeper yield curve will protect net interest margins for financials, coupled with potential financial deregulation [15] - The market's concentration in AI-driven leaders may protect it from disruptions to easing expectations due to inflation risks [8][9] Labor Market - Hiring has almost completely halted, indicating a significant deterioration in the labor market [11] - More weakness in labor, specifically increased layoffs, is needed to confirm a sustained easing cycle [11] - Upside risks to inflation have not abated, despite focus on the Fed's mandate related to the job market [11]

Recent report from Moody's states that 33% of states in the US they are already in recession territory. It looks like Texas, California, Florida, New York, and North Carolina are responsible for majority of the economic growth happening right now. It makes sense the economic growth happening in these areas because of the tech sector.But the fact that we're not seeing growth in other states, that's less than ideal. So, add in the fact that the S&P 500's price to book value is now higher than it was in the 20 ...

The Bank of America Institute is out with the consumer checkpoint for the month of September and debit and credit card spending actually increased for the third month in a row. Joining us right now to break it all down is Holly O'Neal. She is Bank of America president of consumer consumer banking.And Holly, thanks for coming in today. Thanks very much for having me. Um, so another increase in spending.We keep talking about how the consumers slow slowing down. The job market is slowing down, but the spending ...