Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the RMB or related assets Core Insights - The RMB is unlikely to appreciate significantly due to persistent deflationary pressures and the need for accommodative monetary policy [6][9] - Historical parallels between Japan's currency appreciation in the 1980s and the current situation in China are drawn, but the report argues that the RMB will not follow the same path [3][6] - Significant RMB appreciation would exacerbate deflation rather than alleviate it, and sustainable economic rebalancing requires more than just currency appreciation [6][10] Summary by Sections Currency Appreciation and Trade Tensions - Currency appreciation alone is insufficient to resolve complex trade tensions between the US and China, which involve multiple issues beyond currency [10][11] - Historical instances of RMB appreciation did not lead to a narrowing of China's trade surplus with the US [12][13] Deflationary Pressures - China is currently facing intense deflationary pressures, and significant currency appreciation would further harm corporate profits and aggregate demand [23][25] - The report highlights that exporters, particularly SMEs, would suffer from translation losses due to currency appreciation [24][25] Economic Rebalancing - Achieving sustainable economic rebalancing in China requires structural changes in growth models rather than just currency appreciation [41][42] - Policymakers in China prefer investment-driven growth, which complicates the shift towards consumption-led growth [41][42] Historical Context - Japan's experience with currency appreciation in the 1980s led to a loss of export competitiveness and did not result in sustainable economic rebalancing [32][46] - The report emphasizes that Japan's currency appreciation did not lead to a significant increase in private consumption as a share of GDP [54][53]

Market Performance - Canada's main stocks benchmark outperformed its US counterpart in the first half [1] - This outperformance was driven by a record-breaking gold rally [1] Economic Context - The positive stock market performance occurred despite ongoing trade tensions and a weakening economy [1]

also pave the way for combination Covid and flu shot. Meanwhile, China's manufacturing sector contracting for the third straight month as deflation fears ripped through the world's second largest economy. Inventory and employment data also declining.For more on China and ongoing trade tensions, let's bring in retail research founder and president David Riedel. David, great to have you with us. >> Thank you.>> We've got a few more economic readings under our belt, so to speak, since the China US trade war re ...

Equity Research 13 June 2025 Barclays Metals & Mining Mined Matters – What's behind the platinum breakout? Our weekly briefing covering top news flow in the space, chart of the week, latest positioning data, commodity price moves, sound bites from the supply chain, recent global research, upcoming events, and corporate access. Chart of the Week European Metals & Mining NEUTRAL European Metals & Mining Amos Fletcher, CFA +44 (0)20 7773 2225 amos.fletcher@barclays.com Barclays, UK Ian Rossouw, CFA +44 (0)20 3 ...

Bloomberg Daybreak Europe is your essential morning viewing to stay ahead. Live from London, we set the agenda for your day, catching you up with overnight markets news from the US and Asia. And we'll tell you what matters for investors in Europe, giving you insight before trading begins. On today's show, the US and China have agreed to a preliminary plan to ease trade tensions, which now goes for approval to the nation's leaders. American negotiators say they expect issues concerning rare earths and magnet ...

May 18, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea The Détente – What It Does and Doesn't Mean Following Monday's announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs between the US and China, the response in risk markets has been resoundingly positive through the first four trading days. The S&P 500 is up 4.5% from last Friday's close, and year-to-date returns are back in the black after Liberation Day drove steep declines in April. Credit markets have also rallied notably, ...

Core Insights - The Trade Desk (TTD) shares have declined 47.2% over the past six months, indicating company-specific issues despite broader market recovery [1][8] - TTD has underperformed compared to its digital advertising peers, with Alphabet and Amazon shares down 4.1% and 8.4%, respectively, while Magnite gained 4.1% [2][8] - TTD is trading nearly 50% below its 52-week high, placing the stock in a distressed category [5] Market Conditions - Increasing macroeconomic uncertainty and trade tensions are expected to negatively impact TTD, potentially squeezing advertising budgets [6] - The competitive landscape in digital advertising is intense, dominated by major players like Alphabet and Amazon, which pressures TTD's market position [7][15] - Regulatory scrutiny around data privacy and changing consumer data practices pose additional risks to TTD's audience-targeting methods [7] Financial Performance - TTD's reliance on Connected TV (CTV) for revenue growth is concerning, as any adverse effects on this segment could significantly impact overall performance [8] - In Q1 2025, TTD derived 88% of its revenues from North America, indicating a limited international presence that restricts market expansion [9] - Total operating costs surged 21.4% year over year to $561.6 million, driven by investments in platform capabilities, which could pressure profit margins if revenue growth does not keep pace [11] Valuation Concerns - TTD's stock is considered expensive, with a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 11.33X compared to the industry's 5.04X, indicating a stretched valuation [13] - Analysts have revised estimates downward over the past 60 days, reflecting bearish sentiment towards TTD's stock [12][15] - The combination of steep stock decline, high valuation, and reliance on a limited market segment suggests that investors may be better off selling TTD shares [15]

Core Viewpoint - XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Trust has declared a monthly distribution of $0.070 per share, reflecting a 9.09% decrease from the previous month's distribution of $0.077 per share, amid market volatility affecting asset yields [1][2][3] Distribution Details - The distribution is payable on July 1, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 16, 2025 [1][3] - The new distribution amount results in an annualized distribution rate of 14.51% based on market price and 13.86% based on NAV as of May 30, 2025 [2] Investment Objective - The Trust aims for attractive total returns with a focus on income generation across various stages of the credit cycle, primarily investing in floating rate credit instruments and structured credit investments [2][12] Market Conditions - Recent market volatility, driven by tariff developments and trade tensions, has led to significant interest rate spread compression in loan and CLO asset classes, adversely affecting yields [2] Webinar Announcement - A quarterly webinar is scheduled for June 4, 2025, featuring key personnel from XA Investments, providing insights into the Trust's performance and strategy [4] Tax and Distribution Characteristics - Distributions may include net investment income, capital gains, and/or a return of capital, with specific tax characteristics reported to shareholders post-calendar year [3][9] - The Trust is subject to a 4% excise tax if it fails to distribute a minimum percentage of its income and capital gains by year-end [8] Management and Advisory - XA Investments LLC serves as the investment adviser for the Trust, focusing on providing access to alternative investment strategies [14][16] - Octagon Credit Investors acts as the investment sub-adviser, specializing in below-investment grade corporate credit investments [19]

Trade and Market Impact - Trade tensions are affecting market performance, with President Trump accusing China of violating tariff agreements and announcing a doubling of steel tariffs from 25% to 50% [1] - Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) has seen a significant increase of +24% in stock price due to these developments [2] - Major indexes such as the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 are experiencing declines, with the S&P 500 down -20 points [2] Labor Market Insights - The upcoming Jobs Week includes key reports such as Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP private-sector payrolls, Weekly Jobless Claims, and the U.S. Employment Report [3][4] - Expectations for job gains are set at +112K for ADP and +125K for BLS, with potential narratives of labor market loosening if these figures show weakness [4] - The U.S. labor force has been underestimated, with a current unemployment rate expected to remain low at 4.2% despite recent increases [6] Company Earnings Reports - Campbell's Company (CPB) reported fiscal Q3 earnings of 73 cents per share, exceeding expectations by +12% but slightly below the previous year's quarter [7][8] - Revenues for Campbell's reached $2.48 billion, surpassing expectations by +1.55% and showing growth from $2.37 billion year-over-year [8] Economic Indicators - The S&P Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain above the key 50-level at +52.3, while ISM Manufacturing is projected to decrease to +48.5% [9] - Construction Spending for April is anticipated to show a positive change of +0.2% after a -0.5% decline in March [10]

Group 1: Michael Burry's Investment Actions - Michael Burry sold off his entire investment portfolio in Q1, except for Estee Lauder, in which he doubled his position [2] - He bought put options on Nvidia and several Chinese ADRs, indicating a bearish outlook on these stocks [3] - Burry's actions suggest a strategic pivot, betting against the U.S. and Chinese markets while maintaining confidence in Estee Lauder [4] Group 2: Estee Lauder's Business Overview - Estee Lauder is a global beauty conglomerate with a portfolio of luxury brands, including Clinique, MAC, and La Mer [5] - The company has faced challenges due to its exposure to China and the duty-free shopping market, with sales in China recovering slowly post-COVID [6][7] - Increased competition from newer prestige beauty brands has also impacted Estee Lauder's market position in the U.S. [9] Group 3: Financial Performance and Strategy - Estee Lauder's sales declined by 10% and adjusted operating income fell by 27% last quarter, with retail travel revenue dropping 28% [14] - The company is implementing a profit recovery and growth plan, which includes cost reductions and layoffs to restore sales growth and improve margins [13] - Despite current challenges, if the company can regain lost earnings, there could be significant upside potential for its stock [15][16]