Japan’s economy likely contracted in the third quarter after five consecutive periods of growth, as US President Trump’s tariffs campaign took a toll on exports, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists https://t.co/nB3jYfSx5L ...

Mexican lawmakers will pause discussion of a government proposal to impose tariffs of as much as 50% on cars, steel and other products imported from China and several other Asian nations https://t.co/uYLi28Z5x0 ...

Economic models assumed tit-for-tat tariffs; instead, America’s partners have largely held fire. Rather than retaliate, many countries are diversifying their trade https://t.co/G7x8bPUDlT ...

Core Insights - Levi Strauss raised its full-year profit forecast but fell short of Wall Street expectations due to costs associated with U.S. import tariffs, resulting in a 7.5% decline in shares during extended trading [1] - The company has secured about 70% of its holiday inventory ahead of schedule and has raised prices modestly to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariff policies [1][2] - Despite these efforts, the fourth-quarter gross margin is expected to decline by 130 basis points [2] Financial Performance - Levi now expects fiscal-year 2025 adjusted profit per share to be between $1.27 and $1.32, an increase from the previous forecast of $1.25 to $1.30, although the midpoint is below the analyst estimate of $1.31 [3] - The forecast assumes that U.S. tariffs will remain at 30% for China and 20% for other countries through the end of the year [3] - The company reported a 7% increase in net revenue for the quarter ending August 31, reaching $1.54 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $1.50 billion [6] Market Position and Strategy - Merchandise levels increased by 12% compared to the previous year, with the majority of products sourced from South Asia, which faces high tariffs under the current administration [5] - Levi has focused on full-price sales through its direct-to-consumer channel, expanded its product offerings, and maintained strict control over inventory [4]

In parts of America’s economy, the pain caused by tariffs is real. But six months on from “Liberation Day”, the full reckoning has not yet arrived. Why the good news? https://t.co/NBcNzajijl ...

Core Insights - Container imports through U.S. maritime gateways in September declined 8.4% from August to over 2.3 million TEUs, marking the third-highest September on record and a 1.9% increase compared to the same period in 2024, indicating resilient demand despite trade uncertainties [1] Import Trends - Imports from China fell 12.3% month-over-month and 22.9% year-over-year, with significant declines in aluminum (43.8%), footwear (33.9%), and electric machinery (31.5%), while plastics saw a minor drop of 1.5% but increased their share of total Chinese exports to 13.5% [1] - The top 10 countries of origin for imports saw a 9.4% month-over-month decline, totaling 169,126 TEUs, with China leading the drop at 106,751 TEUs. Other notable declines were from Italy (15.1%), South Korea (14.1%), Germany (11.6%), Hong Kong (11.2%), and Taiwan (10.2%) [6] U.S. Trade Policy Impact - The Trump administration's restructuring of U.S. trade through tariffs has led to unintended consequences, pushing China to seek alternative export markets in Europe and increasing costs for American manufacturers [2] - The U.S. accounted for 11.9% of all of China's exports in the first half of the year, despite a 10.7% year-over-year decline in shipments [3] Market Pressures - China imports face additional pressures in the U.S. market, including the elimination of Customs import duties for shipments valued under $800 and upcoming costly port fees for China-linked ships [4] - Chinese retail giants like Temu and Shein have adapted by shifting to a model where U.S.-based sellers manage fulfillment and building their own warehouses in North America to maintain competitive pricing for U.S. consumers [5] Port Activity - The top 10 U.S. ports experienced a 7.9% month-over-month decline in containerized imports, totaling a drop of 169,455 TEUs, with notable declines at Baltimore (12.6%), Long Beach (11.4%), and Savannah (9.1%), while Tacoma was the only port to see an increase at 4.7% [7]

Market Trends - Initial public offerings rebounded in Q3 due to short-term clarity on tariffs and interest rates [1] - Momentum is expected to continue into the next year for IPOs [1]

Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly relying on card installments and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) options to manage higher costs during the holiday shopping season [1][10] - Nearly 22 million U.S. consumers utilized both private-label and general-purpose credit cards for installment payments, reflecting a 5.3% compound annual growth rate [7] - BNPL adoption has been crucial for sustaining sales volumes, with 90% of surveyed merchants indicating it helped maintain sales despite price increases [10] Group 2: Retailer Confidence and Pricing Strategies - 80% of companies across various industries express high confidence in adapting to tariff-related supply-chain disruptions, with goods-sector firms showing even higher confidence at 85.2% [3][4] - Despite confidence, 9 in 10 goods firms and over 70% of services firms raised prices in the past year, yet many experienced margin compression [5] - Retailers are expected to implement modest, selective price adjustments to preserve consumer volume while protecting margins during the crucial December quarter [6] Group 3: Economic Adaptation - Retailers have diversified suppliers and adjusted pricing strategies to navigate tariff impacts, while consumers are managing price pressures through structured borrowing tools [12] - The overall sentiment indicates that while tariffs may increase costs, they do not deter consumer spending intentions [12]

Group 1 - Celestica Inc. (NYSE:CLS) is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity by Jim Cramer, who describes the stock's performance as "beautiful" and compares it favorably to Jabil [1] - Cramer categorizes Celestica as a "strong buy," emphasizing its role in contract manufacturing, which is advantageous in the current tariff environment [1] - The company provides a range of manufacturing and supply chain solutions, including design, engineering, assembly, logistics, and after-market services [1] Group 2 - While Celestica shows potential, there are suggestions that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue increased by $4.5 million or 5.9% year-over-year, with a 7.3% increase when excluding sales from NOAA Home [15] - Gross margin improved by 320 basis points to 56.2%, driven by better wholesale margins, slightly offset by lower retail margins [15][9] - Operating income was $600,000, a significant recovery from a loss of $6.4 million in the same quarter last year [16] - Diluted earnings per share were $0.09 compared to a loss of $0.52 in the prior year [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wholesale net sales increased by $3 million or 6.2%, with a 9.2% increase in shipments to the retail store network [16] - Retail net sales increased by $4.6 million or 9.8%, although gross margin declined by 40 basis points due to lower margins on in-line and clearance goods [18] - Orders from corporate and licensed stores grew by 5.9%, driven by a 9.8% increase in company-owned retail stores [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Outdoor sales were up 18%, indicating strong performance in that segment [10] - Written retail sales increased by 2.4% in the quarter, reflecting a cautious consumer sentiment [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on innovation in product lines, aggressive marketing initiatives, and leveraging technology to adapt to the current market challenges [4] - Investment in new product lines and e-commerce capabilities is seen as crucial for future growth [6] - The company plans to emphasize the value of its Custom Studio program and is optimistic about expanding its locations [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the ongoing challenges in the housing market and consumer caution regarding significant investments in home furnishings [5] - The company remains cautious about the future, particularly regarding gross margins, which are expected to stabilize around the current range [29] - Management expressed optimism about the upcoming High Point Market and the potential for new product introductions [52] Other Important Information - The company declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share, maintaining a strong balance sheet with no outstanding debt [13] - The projected range of annual capital investment has been reduced to $5 million to $7 million [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Did August see the same case with written sales as delivered sales? - Management confirmed that August was the best month for both wholesale and retail orders, with positive momentum continuing into September [25] Question: What trends were observed during the Labor Day holiday season? - Management noted that the trend has been slightly better than previous months, but they remain cautious about overall sales levels [25] Question: What is the extent of the pricing increase due to tariffs? - Management indicated that surcharges have been levied on affected products, particularly from Vietnam and India, with ongoing adjustments to pricing strategies [27] Question: How should gross margins be viewed moving forward? - Management suggested that gross margins are expected to stabilize in the 55-56% range, with slight improvements possible but not dramatic [29] Question: What is the outlook for market share gains due to domestic manufacturing? - Management acknowledged potential opportunities for market share gains but emphasized that it varies by category [46] Question: When will free cash flow cover the dividend again? - Management expressed confidence that free cash flow will cover the dividend soon, particularly with expectations for a stronger fourth quarter [47][48]