Welcome back. Stocks on track for another record close. Here to share where he sees the market heading next is Chris Tumi, Morgan Stanley, managing director of private wealth management.It's good to see you back. Thanks for having me. You say good news is already priced in.Really. Like you think it's all in. No, I mean I look I think we've been positive on the market.So I think the variables that were driving performance for us were, you know, earnings breath which is continuing to look good, operating leve ...

Inflation and jobs data will be near-term tests. Earnings, however, are a more poweful driver. ...

Market Trends & Sentiment - Kweb 触及 52 周高点，目前距离高点约 2% [1] - 贸易谈判是催化剂，有助于中国股市上涨 [1] - 全球投资者情绪修复推动 Kweb 和其他本地指数上涨 [2] - 投资者开始意识到中国在人工智能等领域的创新进展 [2] Investment Opportunities & Risks - 中国是否值得投资取决于未来盈利前景和行业基本面的改善 [2] - 需选择性投资，并非所有公司都一样 [3] - 中国电动汽车行业竞争加剧，对原始设备制造商（OEM）的商业模式不利，因为他们有很高的资本支出 [6] - 电动汽车领域许多股票表现不佳 [7] Investor Behavior - 中国市场约 55%-85% 的日交易量来自散户投资者，具体比例取决于时间 [4] - 散户投资者通常受市场走势驱动，而非公司基本面 [4] - 机构投资者应关注公司基本面和自下而上的盈利情况，以便选择最佳投资标的 [4] EV Sector Dynamics - 电动汽车已成为中国近年来增长的重要组成部分 [6] - 中国电动汽车正走向海外市场以获取更多增长，海外渗透率仍然很低 [6] - 中国电动汽车在欧洲和南美等地非常受欢迎 [5] - 比亚迪股票因伯克希尔哈撒韦公司出售其持股而面临压力 [4]

All right. So, uh, now they're at 6,800 directionally. Do you agree with that.That after the Fed rate cut, there's more upside for the market in this calendar year. Uh, and does it also extend to next year. I think that's the question a lot of people are trying to figure out.I think it does. I think the the extension into next year is absolutely there. We have two major catalyst playing out right now.One is the the Fed rate cut with expectations of more to come and that should extend the economic cycle. Um, ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong week, particularly for small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 hitting a new record high [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of a quarter point provided a boost to the market [1] - Earnings remain strong, suggesting a potential "Goldilocks" economy [1] Investment Strategy - Citigroup recommends a barbell strategy, favoring growth with a cyclical bias [3] - As the Fed eases further, a shift towards small and mid-cap stocks (SMID) is suggested, anticipating an earnings recovery into 2026 due to Fed stimulus [4] - Pullbacks should be aggressively bought into, expecting a strong finish to the year [8] Earnings Analysis - Earnings growth is broadening beyond AI-related companies, with evidence seen in Q2 and expected to continue in Q3 [5] - The S&P 500's capitalization is roughly split, with half attributable to AI-related companies and the other half to economic-sensitive and defensive sectors [6] - Expectations for Q3 earnings are high, requiring strong performance to meet the raised bar [8] S&P 500 Outlook - Citigroup has reached its initial year-end target of 6,600 for the S&P 500 and has a "Super Bowl case" target of 7,200 [8] - Achieving the 7,200 target requires 2026 earnings estimates to increase beyond Citigroup's current estimate of $38 per share for the S&P 500 [9] - The S&P 500's fundamental backdrop is structurally in good shape [11]

Market Overview - All four U.S. equity benchmarks closed at record highs on Thursday, with the Dow at 46,142.42, S&P 500 at 6,631.96, Nasdaq Composite at 22,470.72, and Russell 2000 at 2,467.70 [3] - The U.S. equity markets opened with the Nasdaq leading at +0.44%, followed by S&P 500 at +0.27%, Dow at +0.20%, and Russell 2000 at -0.02% [1] Current Market Sentiment - There is a lack of significant market-moving events today, allowing investors to digest recent information and take a breather [4] - No earnings calls are scheduled for today, indicating a quieter day in terms of corporate announcements [5] - There are no major economic events occurring today, with impactful data expected only on Monday [6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of sales growth over traditional earnings metrics for evaluating stocks, especially in volatile market conditions [2][3][10] - A selection of stocks with strong sales growth and cash flow is recommended, including Universal Health Services, Methanex, Arista Networks, Voya Financial, and Maximus [2][10][12] Sales Growth as a Metric - Sales growth is preferred as it reflects actual demand for a company's products or services, providing better visibility into the durability of the business model [3][5] - Companies that can expand their sales during economic stress demonstrate pricing power and competitive advantages [3][5] Earnings Limitations - Earnings can be misleading due to one-off charges, cost-cutting, and accounting adjustments, making them less reliable indicators of a company's trajectory [4] Cash Flow and Financial Flexibility - Sustained sales growth leads to stronger cash flows, allowing companies to reinvest in innovation, expand markets, or return capital to shareholders without excessive debt reliance [5] Stock Selection Criteria - Stocks are shortlisted based on criteria such as 5-Year Historical Sales Growth greater than industry average and Cash Flow exceeding $500 million [6] - Additional metrics include P/S Ratio, % Change in Sales Estimate Revisions, Operating Margin, Return on Equity, and Zacks Rank [7][8][9] Recommended Stocks - Universal Health Services (UHS) is expected to have a sales growth rate of 8.5% in 2025 and holds a Zacks Rank of 2 [11][12] - Methanex (MEOH) anticipates a sales growth rate of 5.6% in 2025 with a Zacks Rank of 1 [12] - Arista Networks (ANET) is projected to achieve a sales growth of 25.4% in 2025 and has a Zacks Rank of 2 [13] - Voya Financial (VOYA) expects a sales growth of 16.1% in 2025, also holding a Zacks Rank of 2 [14] - Maximus (MMS) forecasts a sales growth of 2.7% in fiscal 2025 and has a Zacks Rank of 1 [15]

Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - Goldman Sachs encourages clients to stay invested and deploy incremental capital over 6-18 months, anticipating potential drawdowns [2] - The market has an 80% probability of experiencing a 10% drawdown, but valuations are not always reliable predictors of market performance [3] - Family offices are looking to decrease cash holdings by 30% over the next 12 months, shifting towards public and private equities [5] - There is significant "right tail risk" in the market, suggesting potential for further upside [7] Economic Factors & Fed Policy - $73 trillion is sitting in money market funds, which could move into risk assets as rates decline [8] - The Fed anticipates a slowdown followed by reacceleration, driven by fiscal and monetary stimulus, and a weaker dollar [9] - Fiscal stimulus is expected to increase cash flow for consumers and corporations [10] AI & Earnings - AI capex has doubled in the last two years, from $150 billion to $300 billion, but remains at 50% of cash flows, unlike the tech bubble [12][13] - The top five stocks have a return on equity (ROE) of 65% and grew over 20% in the first half of the year [14] - The market is more driven by earnings than the overall economy [16] Market Positioning & Sentiment - Client sentiment is mixed, with wealth management clients being neutral to risk-on [4] - Hedge funds are at the 40th percentile of net long positioning, and mutual funds are holding $170 billion in cash, indicating relatively light positioning [6] - The market is expected to hover around current levels until the end of the year, with a moderate upward trend in 2026 [17] Small Caps vs Large/Mid Caps - Small caps have been performing well, but last year the S&P outperformed small caps despite rate cuts and GDP growth [18][19] - Goldman Sachs prefers large and mid-cap stocks [19]

We'll turn now to Cracker Barrel. Company reporting its fourth quarter results and Yahoo Financ's Brooke Depal joins me here to break it all down. Investors don't look so happy with this one.Brooke, investors not too pleased and that's largely because of the outlook that the company provided. The company did say that they now expect total revenue for the fiscal year between 3.35% billion to 3.45% billion. that they said assumes a comparable sales or rather a comparable store traffic decline of between 4 to ...

Let's bring in private wealth chief market strategist Carol Schliff and region's wealth management CIO Alan Mcnite. Guys, welcome. Allan, you didn't get a whole lot of new information here, but at least the Fed in its initial decide on a decision on a quarter point was mostly aligned.I mean, they've had more descent in the past. What does that say about the future. I think the most positive thing for us was there wasn't this major surprise.We had so much aida and angst going into this where it was going to ...