Retail giants like Walmart, Home Depot, and Target, as you can see there, are scheduled to report their earnings throughout the course of the week as investors continue to gauge the state of the consumer. Our next guest says the outlook is bleak going into the holiday season as rising inflation weighs on the consumer health with lowincome consumers getting squeezed the absolute most. For more, let's bring in Jihan Ma, the senior analyst over at Bernstein, who covers many of these uh retailers.Jihan, thank y ...

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - Bitcoin experienced volatility, falling approximately 8% between the previous Monday and Friday, dipping under $95,000 over the weekend, and sitting at about $95,570 on Monday morning [1] - Berkshire Hathaway took a nearly 18 million share position in Google parent Alphabet, worth roughly $5 billion [1] - The market is closely watching Nvidia's third-quarter results, which are due after the bell on Wednesday [1] - Key retail results are expected from Home Depot, Lowe's, Target, and Walmart [1] - Saudi Arabia has pledged hundreds of billions of dollars in US investments [1] Economic Policy & Impact - President Trump is cutting tariffs on over 200 food products, including coffee, beef, bananas, and tomatoes, as certain foods could be exempt from tariffs since they're not grown or processed in the US [1][2] - The administration is working on plans to address voter frustrations over the cost of living, potentially including striking more deals with pharmaceutical companies and greenlighting more offshore drilling [3] Financial Analysis & Risk Assessment - A bond investor is recommending a 20% cash position to hedge against a severe market downturn, citing concerns in the private credit market, which is close to $2 trillion [3] - RBC Capital indicates a plain old-fashioned valuation problem, with AI stocks carrying the weight of the market, but there is still a tremendous amount of jitters around those AI stocks [1][3] - Margin debt is hitting a record high, which in the past has correlated with S&P consolidations [5] Economic Outlook & Labor Market - The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the shutdown-delayed September jobs report on Thursday [1] - There could be a quiet time in the labor market because firms are finding that AI is making their workers so productive that they don't necessarily have to hire the new kids out of college [4]

Economic Outlook - Concerns are rising regarding potential pressures on upper-income consumers, which could lead to risks for the Federal Reserve if they do not cut rates in December [1][18] - The labor market data indicates that upper-income parents are increasingly worried about their children's job prospects, negatively impacting consumer spending as the year ends [3][18] Youth Unemployment - Youth unemployment is currently at approximately 180% of normal levels for the average worker, a significant increase from the historical rate of 150% [6][18] - The rise in youth unemployment is attributed to job displacement caused by advancements in AI, similar to the impact of computers in the past [4][5] AI and Productivity - There is skepticism about the short-term returns on AI investments, with concerns that companies may not hire enough if they do not see the expected benefits [7][9] - Long-term productivity improvements are anticipated, but the transition period may be challenging as organizations adapt to new technologies and cultural changes [8][10][11] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is advised to focus on short-term growth rather than solely on inflation, suggesting that a rate cut could stimulate economic activity [13][17] - A failure to cut rates in December could negatively impact holiday spending, as market reactions to the Fed's decisions could influence consumer behavior [15][16][18]

Nine, MetLife Investment Management chief market strategist Drew Matus is with us. Nice to have you on set, drew. Good to see you.What vulnerabilities are you worried about. >> Well, I'm worried that actually we were just talking about this. I think parents are worried about their kids.And I think when you look at the when you look at the labor market data that we have, and then you look at what's happening to consumer sentiment and you see what's happening with youth unemployment. The only way to square th ...

Finances might feel tight now, and that is unlikely to change in 2026 with signs that inflation will remain high and new tariffs might increase costs once more. Find Out: 8 Smart Ways Frugal People Are Living Like There’s Already a Recession Read Next: 9 Low-Effort Ways To Make Passive Income (You Can Start This Week) According to Christopher Stroup, a CFP and founder of Silicon Beach Financial, be wary of any of the following signs — they may mean it’s time to adjust your budget, and thus your spending h ...

The president uh is constantly saying prices have come down. Now inflation is still 3%. It's still too high.Now oil prices, energy prices, there are certain uh things where they have come down. But when you keep saying prices are falling, that's not true. Uh because inflation is still it's the 3% is on top of all the inflation we had uh during the Biden years.So we got all that inflation plus an additional 3%. And we should I think you should admit that >> a more a more precise way to say it though, Joe, is ...

With the federal government having finally ended its shutdown last week, this week we can get back to the business of examining economic reports. Chief of these is expected to be the U.S. Employment Report due Thursday morning. Where we last left off, an average of only +29K new jobs created over the past four months was making the Fed nervous about an unraveling labor market, which helped them decide to cut interest rates even as inflation metrics were ticking back up.Compare this to the previous four-mont ...

Inflation and Affordability Are Still Everything https://t.co/mBj85YwUT0 ...

Key Takeaways SBUX's Q4 operating margin fell 500 bps to 9.4%, driving a 34% EPS drop.Starbucks faces high coffee costs and labor spending that may weigh on early 2026.SBUX expects efficiency efforts and lower G&A to help as U.S. comps show improving trends.Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) reported a solid top-line finish to fiscal 2025, but profitability told a more challenging story.In fourth-quarter fiscal 2025, consolidated operating margin declined 500 basis points year over year to 9.4%, pressured primari ...

Economic Indicators - The upcoming September jobs report is expected to show a gain of approximately 50,000 jobs, which could significantly impact the bond market depending on the accuracy of the data [2][3] - There is an anticipation of sizable revisions to the jobs data due to the rapid collection process, indicating that the report may not fully reflect the current economic conditions [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current interest rates in the next meeting, with potential cuts not expected until early 2026, as inflation remains high at around 3% while the unemployment rate hovers near 4.5% [5][6] - The Fed's dual mandate of managing inflation and supporting the labor market is creating tension, as the labor market shows signs of slowing down [6][7] Corporate Debt and AI Sector - There has been a significant increase in bond issuance by major AI tech companies, raising concerns about the overall level of corporate debt, especially given the low credit spreads [9][10] - The focus is shifting towards lower-rated companies and those in the high-yield market, which may struggle to service their debt as the overall debt burden increases [10][11] - The market is expected to demand higher yields relative to treasuries to compensate for the rising risk associated with high levels of corporate debt [11][12]