MORE IN 30 MINUTES TIME ALONGSIDE MATT MILLER AND OPEN INTEREST. NO PAYROLL DATA SO FAR TODAY, NOT EXPECTING ANY BECAUSE OF THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. JOINING US TO DISCUSS IS MICHAEL MCKEE.THE LAST TIME WAS 2013 TO HAVE IT DELAYED LIKE THIS. MIKE: WE GOT THE NUMBERS IN 2019 WHEN THINGS WERE SHUT DOWN. IT IS WEIRD.JOBS DAY, YOU GO TO DANI FIRST. WE HAVE DISAPPOINTING NEWS IN TERMS OF THE JOBS REPORT, NO JOBS CREATED OR LOST BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE DATA. IF WE HAD DATA, HARD TO KNOW EXACTLY WHAT IT WOULD HAVE BE ...

Gen Z Values and Employment - A recent study indicates a significant disconnect between the values of Gen Z and what hiring managers seek [5] - Gen Z's top values include self-care (eudaimonia), authentic self-expression, and helping others [3][4] - Hiring managers prioritize achievement, learning, and work centrism [4] - Only 2% of Gen Z aligns with the top three values sought by hiring managers [5] Generational Differences and the Changing Work Bargain - Older generations value achievement and affluence more [7] - Gen Z may deeply value self-care due to a perceived broken "bargain" of postponing happiness for future rewards [7][8][9] - Gen Z might believe the traditional "hustle culture" and delayed gratification model is no longer viable, especially with the emergence of AI [10][9] Employer Strategies and Advice for Gen Z - Companies with strong brand names or desirable workplaces have an advantage in finding the 2% of Gen Z whose values align with theirs [13][14] - Companies may need to accommodate the 98% of Gen Z with differing values [15] - Gen Z individuals need to decide whether to prioritize living their values and finding a compatible company, or to bet on the traditional work bargain [17] - Individuals should be aware of the trade-offs involved in their career choices [17] Employability of Gen Z - The study questions whether Gen Z's values make them less employable to certain organizations [19] - The core issue is under what circumstances companies will hire and retain Gen Z employees [19]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve (Fed) faces a dual mandate to maintain low inflation and high employment, using the fed funds rate as a tool to influence economic conditions [1] - Currently, both inflation and the job market are deteriorating simultaneously, creating a dilemma for the Fed regarding which issue to prioritize [1] Interest Rate Expectations - Investors anticipate a reduction in the fed funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75% to 4%, marking the lowest level since December 2022 [3] - A rate cut is expected to lower interest costs on short-term debts such as credit cards and car loans, while also reducing returns on CDs and high-yield savings accounts [2] Employment Situation - Recent reports indicate a slowdown in the job market, with job losses recorded in June and only 22,000 jobs added in August [4] - An increase in unemployment insurance claims suggests more individuals are remaining unemployed for longer periods [4] Inflation Trends - The Fed's preferred inflation measure, core Personal Consumption Expenditures, rose by 2.9% over the past year, aligning with forecasts and supporting the case for a rate cut [5] - Inflation has been accelerating, moving further away from the Fed's target of a 2% annual rate, with tariffs cited as a significant factor in rising consumer prices [6] Government Shutdown Risks - A potential partial government shutdown starting October 1 could delay the release of critical economic data, including the jobs report due on October 3 [7] Federal Reserve Governance - The upcoming Fed meeting may be influenced by political pressures, particularly regarding the status of Fed governor Lisa Cook, who has faced attempts at removal by President Trump [8][9] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for setting the fed funds rate and consists of 12 voting members [10][11]

Stagflation Definition and Components - Stagflation is defined as a combination of weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation [1] - Economic growth is measured by GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which tracks what's made inside US borders [2] - Inflation is tracked using CPI (Consumer Price Index), representing a household shopping basket, and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), a broader measure favored by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - Job market health is assessed via the unemployment rate and monthly payroll changes reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with weekly unemployment claims offering higher-frequency insights [5] Historical Context and Current Assessment - The 1970s experienced significant stagflation with unemployment exceeding 7-8%, double-digit inflation, and contracting GDP [6] - The pandemic period saw a different pattern: initial COVID impact led to unemployment spikes and GDP decline, but without immediate price increases (stag without flation) [7] - In 2022, stimulus measures contributed to inflation exceeding 9%, while the economy contracted modestly and unemployment remained low [7] - Currently, unemployment is moderate, PCE is in the high 2% range, and GDP is relatively strong, not indicative of 1970s-style stagflation [8] Market and Economic Indicators to Watch - Precious metals, such as gold (up over 40% this year) and silver (approaching 60%), tend to perform well during periods of elevated inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [8] - Key data points to monitor include jobs data, CPI, PCE, and GDP, with particular attention to services inflation (shelter, insurance, healthcare costs) [9] - Energy prices and the strength of the US dollar are important factors, as an oil price surge or a weaker dollar could quickly reignite headline inflation [9][10] - Real incomes (workers' paychecks after inflation) should be monitored relative to demand; a decline in savings and increased credit card usage could signal potential issues [10][11]

Economic Overview - Stagflation is characterized by weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation, with current conditions indicating a lowercase stagflation since the pandemic [1][2] - Economic growth is measured by GDP, which reflects domestic production, while GNP tracks earnings of Americans globally [2][3] Inflation Metrics - Key inflation indicators include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), with the latter being favored by the Federal Reserve for its broader scope [3][4] - Distinction between headline inflation, which includes food and energy, and core inflation, which excludes these volatile components, is crucial for understanding inflation trends [4] Employment Indicators - The unemployment rate and monthly payroll changes are monitored closely, along with weekly unemployment claims, to gauge labor market health [5] - Historical data shows that during the 1970s stagflation, unemployment exceeded 7-8% with double-digit inflation and contracting GDP [6] Current Economic Conditions - Presently, unemployment is modest, PCE is in the high twos, and GDP remains strong, indicating that the economy is not in a severe stagflation scenario like the 1970s [7][8] - Precious metals have seen significant price increases, with gold up over 40% and silver nearing 60% this year, reflecting a response to elevated inflation and current interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8] Monitoring Indicators - Key indicators to watch include jobs data, CPI, PCE, and GDP, with a focus on services inflation, shelter costs, and healthcare expenses [9] - Fluctuations in oil prices or a weaker dollar could quickly impact headline inflation, necessitating close monitoring of real incomes versus consumer demand [10] Conclusion - There is a potential risk of lowercase stagflation, but it is unlikely to escalate to the levels seen in the 1970s or 80s based on current observations [11]

KEY EVENTS NEXT WEEK: 👇- All Week: Fed officials speaking- Tuesday: JOLTs Job Openings- Wednesday: ADP Employment Report & ISM Manufacturing PMI- Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims- Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate https://t.co/a9wAaXyHaG ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment is characterized by rising inflation and a stable unemployment rate, leading to uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][8][29] Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates that GDP growth is strong, inflation remains elevated, and jobless claims suggest that companies are not laying off employees [3][8] - The inflation forecast is uncertain due to new tariffs and cost increases that suppliers are attempting to pass on to consumers [5][6] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is experiencing a low hiring environment, but there is also a decrease in labor supply, which may limit increases in the unemployment rate [10][11][29] - A significant number of individuals over 65 are exiting the workforce, contributing to a tighter labor supply [11] Business Sentiment - Businesses are beginning to feel more optimistic as uncertainty around tariffs has decreased, although the impact of new tariffs may still affect specific sectors [12][14] - Companies are adapting to the current economic conditions and are more willing to take action rather than remain on the sidelines [14][15] Monetary Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve is focused on balancing inflation and unemployment, with both indicators moving in the wrong direction [16][28] - The concept of a neutral interest rate is being debated, with the Richmond Fed's model suggesting a relatively high neutral rate based on current economic signals [20][25] Future Outlook - The economic landscape is dynamic, and the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy will need to be adaptive as new data emerges [30] - There is a recognition of the productivity boom, which may influence inflation dynamics and the overall economic outlook [29][30]

Joining us this morning, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin here on Bloomberg Television and radio worldwide and on radio. They can't see it, but on television, people can see you have a bit of a bandage on your head. You just had one of those older people's kind of operations.Yeah, there's no truth that it was what happened in the last meeting. All right. Speaking of the last meeting, we came out of that believing that or at least Wall Street that you're going to cut rates again in October and maybe in Dece ...

Market Recovery and Performance - The stock market has shown a remarkable recovery since early-April lows, achieving double-digit returns due to optimism from stimulus measures and Fed interest rate cuts [1] - Major market averages, including the S&P 500, reached all-time highs in September, despite concerns about stock valuations [2][3] - The S&P 500 is currently trading at a forward price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.6, which is higher than the level before the index fell 19% due to tariffs [3] Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Concerns over the S&P 500's P/E ratio have kept many investors on the sidelines, potentially leading to future price increases as these investors may eventually enter the market [4] - Analyst Ryan Detrick suggests that the stock market's record-setting run may continue, despite the lack of guarantees in investing [5] Economic Indicators and Inflation - Despite initial fears that tariffs would lead to inflation and economic downturn, inflation remains manageable but has started to rise again, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.9% in August [6][9] - The August inflation reading is the highest since January 2025, and a breakout above 3% could negatively impact economic growth and interest rate expectations [7] Market Index Performance - Since April's low, the S&P 500 has gained 32.7%, the Nasdaq has increased by 46.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen by 22.4% [8] Labor Market and Consumer Confidence - Unemployment is on the rise, and consumer confidence is weak, which poses challenges for the Fed's dual mandate of maintaining low inflation and unemployment [9][10]

Although Russia’s economy is treading water, its deterioration has not fed through to the labour market. Real wages are at a record high and unemployment is at all-time lows https://t.co/pigEVsijN9 ...