Food Price Trends - The analysis suggests food prices will not remain as high as in 2025 due to the anticipated easing of certain commodity prices and tariff dynamics [1][2][3] - Companies like General Mills and PepsiCo are already lowering prices, raising the question of whether these price reductions will be sustainable [5] - The unwinding of COVID-era inflation is contributing to savings for consumers on grocery items [6] Consumer Behavior & Economic Impact - The report highlights a "K-shaped" economy, emphasizing the impact of pricing on low-income consumers' consumption of daily use consumer staples [7][8] - High-income consumers' consumption of daily use categories is less sensitive to economic conditions compared to low-income consumers [8] - Volume drag from low-income consumers will be a key indicator in 2026 [8][9] Top Picks & Investment Opportunities - Top picks for the next year include Coke, Monster, and Vitita Cocoa (coconut water) [9] - Vitita Cocoa benefits from structural growth as a workout and recovery drink, and from tariff exemptions [9][10] Company Performance - Lamb Weston's margin improvement and outlook, particularly in international markets, have been disappointing [12] - Lamb Weston's sales were in line with expectations, but margin improvement was the key issue [12][13]

Eurozone consumer sentiment unexpectedly weakened in December despite cooling inflation and economic resilience against tariffs https://t.co/fFLzXf9Hk5 ...

Definitely things are um a lot more money. >> I mean, I'm going to see family, but as far as like, you know, being able to get like gifts for everybody, that's a little bit difficult right now. >> To me, everything is like a very expensive.There's been a lot of conversations about like, oh, we should do like experience gifts and things like that because um everything is just so much more expensive now. We've always done what we call secondhand Christmas where we try to focus on buying things secondhand to m ...

What were the larger forces that kept inflation down and have they gone away. >> Well, a very important force that was keeping inflation down was globalization. It was the case after China entered the WTO 25 years ago that goods were coming out of China and was holding goods prices down.At the same time, immigration globally also went up. That also messed that the cost of labor and wage inflation was also held down. So those forces were weighing on inflation for literally two decades after 2000 because we s ...

Now to shift gears and get some insights on the news that is shaping the overall markets. For that, we'd like to welcome in Dale Smothers, president and CEO at RDS Wealth Management. Dale, thanks so much for being with us on this Friday.I mean, looking back at the year that was in 2025. Why do you think the this bull market is still met with so much caution. >> Jenny, you're exactly right.It was the uh climbing the wall of worry is an analogy that I like to use. This this market has been resilient. The cons ...

Core Insights - Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) reported a decline in both earnings and sales for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, reflecting a challenging consumer environment and lower volumes, partially offset by productivity gains and strong performance in certain growth categories [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were 45 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents, but down 35.7% year over year due to lower adjusted operating profit [2] - Net sales decreased by 6.8% year over year to $2,979.1 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,990 million, with a 3.9% headwind from M&A and a 3% decline in organic net sales [3][11] - Organic net sales fell 3% due to a 3% decline in volume, while price/mix remained flat, with management noting a 100-basis-point headwind from retailer purchasing patterns [4][11] - Adjusted gross profit declined 17.1% to $698 million, with adjusted gross margin contracting 292 basis points to 23.4% [5] Segment Performance - Grocery & Snacks segment net sales fell 8.5% year over year to $1,209 million, impacted by a 7.0% adverse M&A effect and a 1.5% decline in organic net sales [6] - Refrigerated & Frozen segment net sales decreased by 6.5% to $1,251 million, with a 5.1% drop in organic net sales [7] - International segment sales declined 5.4% to $230 million, reflecting a 4.1% M&A impact and a 2.9% fall in organic net sales [8] - Foodservice sales decreased 1.3% to $288 million, with organic performance reflecting a 4.2% benefit from price/mix, offset by a 4.0% volume decline [9] Financial Health - In the first half of fiscal 2026, Conagra generated net cash from operating activities of $331 million, with capital expenditures totaling $219 million, resulting in free cash flow of $113 million [12] - The company ended the second quarter with net debt of $7.6 billion and paid a dividend of 35 cents per share [12] Future Outlook - Conagra reiterated its fiscal 2026 outlook, projecting organic net sales to range from a decline of 1% to growth of 1% compared to fiscal 2025, with adjusted EPS anticipated between $1.70 and $1.85 [13] - The outlook factors in continued elevated inflation in the cost of goods sold, with core inflation expected to be slightly above 4% [14] - Total cost of goods sold inflation is projected at approximately 7%, with measures expected to raise costs by roughly 3% annually before mitigation efforts [15]

Widening the band within which the peso moves risks a modest rise in inflation, but that is less of a problem for Argentina’s government with midterms out of the way. Still, this is far from a full currency float https://t.co/onxloCNuZd ...

Let's continue the conversation right here with Toron Slack. He's chief economist at Apollo Global Management. Um, you have a favorite in that Fed race, by the way.Well, so I don't have a personal favorite, but I think it's clear that the market is trying to chew hard on which of these candidates will have implications for what's happening, especially of course in rates. What the conclusion of course here is that it all becomes about can the new fetcher persuade the other FOMC members about whatever his vie ...

Core Insights - Recent inflation data and comments from Fed officials have increased expectations for interest rate cuts, with markets now pricing a 25.5% likelihood of rates being lowered to 3.25-3.5% by January 2026, up from 15.3% a month earlier [1] Inflation Data - Softer U.S. inflation data has strengthened expectations for two or more Fed rate cuts in the coming year, with November's underlying inflation growing at the slowest pace since early 2021 and headline CPI rising 2.7% year over year, below forecasts [2] Fed Leadership and Rate Cuts - Comments from President Trump suggest that the next Fed chair will favor lower interest rates, contributing to market bets on additional rate cuts next year [4] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that the Fed has room to ease interest rates, citing signs of weakening in the labor market, and suggested that any additional cuts might occur at a moderate pace [5] Financial Sector Impact - Anticipated Fed interest rate cuts in 2026 are expected to provide a significant boost to the financial sector, as lower rates could reduce capital costs for banks and enhance loan activity [7] - The Dow Jones U.S. Financial Services Index has gained 19.70% over the past year and 2.41% month to date, indicating strong performance in the sector [8] Consumer Discretionary Sector - Lower interest rates are expected to improve consumer access to credit and boost spending power, positively impacting profit margins in the consumer discretionary sector, which has seen a 7.17% increase year to date and 2.47% month to date [10] Small-Cap Stocks - Small-cap stocks, which rely heavily on external borrowings, are likely to benefit significantly from lower interest rates, allowing for increased capital availability and refinancing of existing debt at cheaper rates [12]

The big risk in the market's mind is that as the government both fiscal and monetary policy moves are towards easing will inflation take off again. That's the biggest question we face. We have a strong point of view on it.But the burden of proof is on us because inflation does seem to have been stuck in this 2 and a half to 3% range for a while now. So we have to answer that question and I think the biggest answer to the question is if uh real growth rates start accelerating now uh we believe inflation will ...