Core Insights - The energy-infrastructure sector is experiencing a significant transformation as utilities, data-center operators, and industrial customers seek to expand capacity and modernize grids [2] - Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR) and Fluor Corporation (FLR) are two major U.S.-listed contractors playing pivotal roles in this transformation, focusing on power generation, transmission, and large-scale EPC services [2][3] - Each company is adopting different strategies to navigate the current market cycle, with Quanta emphasizing execution certainty and integrated solutions, while Fluor is pursuing a more asset-light approach [3] Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR) - PWR is witnessing strong momentum in its core markets, particularly in electric infrastructure and renewable energy, with the Electric segment contributing 80.9% of total revenues in Q3 2025, amounting to $6.17 billion, reflecting a 17.9% year-over-year growth [5][10] - The company reported a record backlog of $39.2 billion at the end of Q3 2025, up from $33.96 billion a year ago, indicating strong demand across utility and technology-driven markets [6][10] - PWR anticipates ongoing strength in electricity needs, driven by data centers and manufacturing, which will support further investments in infrastructure [8] Fluor Corporation (FLR) - Fluor is capitalizing on healthy activity across key markets, with strong execution in Energy Solutions and progress in Mission Solutions, leading to improved performance in LNG, mining, and government services [11][12] - The company raised its full-year guidance due to stronger-than-expected performance and a total backlog of $28.2 billion, with 82% being reimbursable projects, indicating a lower-risk mix [12] - Fluor expects constructive conditions in LNG, clean energy, and government work, with a strengthening pipeline of engineering and EPC opportunities [14] Stock Performance & Valuation - Over the past six months, Quanta's share price has outperformed Fluor's and the Zacks Engineering - R and D Services industry [15] - Quanta is currently trading at a premium compared to Fluor based on a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio [16] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PWR's 2025 and 2026 earnings indicates year-over-year improvements of 17.8% and 16.7%, respectively, while FLR's 2025 EPS estimate shows a 7.7% decline [19][20] - PWR's EPS for 2025 is estimated at $10.57, while FLR's is projected at $2.15 [20][21] Conclusion - Both Quanta and Fluor hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), supported by different fundamental drivers, with Quanta focusing on utility infrastructure and Fluor benefiting from a stronger mix of reimbursable work [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (NYSE:APD) is recognized as one of the top commodity stocks to consider for investment, despite a recent price target reduction by Evercore ISI from $375 to $325 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q4 FY25, Air Products reported an EPS of $3.39, slightly above the forecast of $3.38, with a full-year EPS of $12.03, reflecting a 3% year-over-year decline [3]. - The company implemented a cost-reset strategy, resulting in a 16% reduction in workforce and maintaining stable operating margins at 23.7% [3]. - Air Products returned $1.6 billion to shareholders, demonstrating a commitment to capital efficiency [3]. Future Outlook - Management indicated that the NEOM green hydrogen project is nearly 90% complete, with plans to achieve ammonia output by 2027 [4]. - For FY26, the company anticipates a 9% growth in EPS, modestly positive cash flow, and approximately $4 billion in capital spending [4]. Business Operations - Air Products operates a global network across North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, focusing on industrial gases, hydrogen, and large-scale energy transition projects [5].

Thomas Møller, EVP Energy Division Energy Division Energy transition Fossil fuels Clean fuels & molecules Electrification Today 2050 Net-zero +50% demand growth Solution 1 Energy efficiency Solution 2 Electrification Solution 3 Clean fuels & molecules 3 2 1 Energy transition Applications that drive electricity demand until 2030 Heating & cooling 22% Others 15% Industry 38% EV´s 15% Data centers 10% | Two thirds of the | China | European Union | Other AE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | global investments | USD ...

Industry Overview - The demand for clean electricity is accelerating globally, driven by long-term structural trends and rapid technological advances [1] - The expansion of AI-powered data centers is significantly increasing electricity demand, alongside rising temperatures leading to higher air conditioning usage [2] - Government policies promoting decarbonization and clean energy are compelling utilities to shift towards renewable sources, supported by grid modernization efforts [3][4] GE Vernova (GEV) - GE Vernova focuses on grid modernization, renewable power, and decarbonization technologies, benefiting from a diversified business model [5] - The acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in Prolec GE enhances GEV's position in the global grid infrastructure market and is expected to accelerate growth in its Electrification segment [6][9] - GEV shows stronger solvency with cash and cash equivalents totaling $7.95 billion and no debt as of September 30, 2025 [12][13] AES Corporation (AES) - AES is making strategic investments in clean energy solutions and is well-positioned to benefit from growing electricity demand from data centers, with 4.2 GW of data center power purchase agreements (PPAs) in operation [7][8] - AES has a long-term debt of $26.46 billion and current debt of $4.39 billion, indicating a weaker solvency position compared to GEV [13][14] - The company has maintained its earnings estimates for 2025 while seeing a slight increase for 2026 [10][12] Financial Comparison - GEV's forward Price/Sales (P/S F12M) multiple is 3.65X, while AES's is 0.72X, making AES relatively more attractive from a valuation standpoint [15] - Return on Equity (ROE) for GEV is 17.07%, compared to AES's 18.83% [16] - In the past year, GEV shares have increased by 69%, while AES shares have risen by 4.5% [17] Investment Outlook - GE Vernova is favored for its robust financial stability and superior price performance, despite both companies currently holding a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [19]

Core Insights - Abaxx Technologies Inc. has been included in the MSCI Canada Small Cap Index, effective November 24, 2025, marking a significant milestone for the company [1][3][11] - The MSCI Canada Small Cap Index represents approximately 14% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Canada, serving as a widely referenced benchmark in the financial industry [2] Company Overview - Abaxx Technologies is focused on building advanced market infrastructure and technology aimed at addressing major societal challenges, including the energy transition [4][6] - The company is the majority shareholder of Abaxx Singapore Pte. Ltd., which owns the Abaxx Commodity Exchange and Clearinghouse, and operates subsidiaries such as Abaxx Spot Pte. Ltd. and Adaptive Infrastructure [5][6] Business Developments - The company is generating revenue through its exchange, which features the only physically-backed LNG forward curves trading globally, and is launching a Digital Title pilot program involving tokenized gold and other assets [3][6] - Abaxx Exchange provides critical market infrastructure for a low-carbon economy, offering centrally-cleared, physically-deliverable futures contracts in various commodities [6][8] Innovations and Services - Abaxx Spot modernizes physical gold trading with a physically-backed gold pool in Singapore, facilitating secure electronic transactions and supporting physical delivery for gold futures contracts [7] - Adaptive Infrastructure addresses gaps in post-trade infrastructure by offering custodial services across environmental markets and digital title assets, enhancing reliability and reducing risk [8]

Core Viewpoint - BHP has officially abandoned its attempt to acquire Anglo American, focusing instead on its $53 billion merger with Teck Resources, which is set for a shareholder vote soon [1][4]. Group 1: BHP's Acquisition Attempt - BHP had re-engaged with Anglo American's management with a simplified proposal, avoiding the contentious breakup structure from a previous $49 billion bid [2]. - The motivation behind BHP's interest was Anglo's copper assets in South America, which are highly regarded in the industry, especially with increasing copper demand due to the energy transition [5]. - BHP's withdrawal from the acquisition attempt may eliminate uncertainties for shareholders ahead of the upcoming vote on the Teck merger [7]. Group 2: Industry Context - Anglo's pending merger with Teck, valued at $53 billion, aims to consolidate major copper pipelines and create a company that could rival the output of the Escondida mine in Chile, marking it as the second-largest mining deal ever [6]. - The merger's approval will require scrutiny under the Investment Canada Act, which will influence domestic job commitments and the future headquarters of the combined entity [7]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the news, BHP shares experienced a decline of 0.62%, trading at $52.75 in premarket [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Copper Core Views and Arguments - **Long-term Outlook**: The company maintains a structurally positive view on copper through 2025, despite concerns about a 'soft patch' in supply and demand (S&D) fundamentals in 3Q25 due to softening demand from China after a strong first half of the year [1][6] - **Demand vs Supply**: Demand growth is expected to remain resilient at approximately 3%, while mine and refined supply growth is projected to be less than 1%, leading to deficits that will drive inventory drawdowns and support price increases [1][6] - **Short-term Challenges**: In the near term, tighter fundamentals are unlikely to catalyze LME copper prices to sustainably trade above $11,000 due to elevated net positioning and holding refined output [1][6] Supply Dynamics - **Mine Supply Cuts**: Significant cuts to mine supply have been noted, including a reduction of approximately 500,000 tons in output from the Grasberg incident and cyclical lows in Collahuasi output, leading to essentially flat global mine supply in 2025 and less than 1% growth in 2026 [2][3] - **Refined Output Stability**: Despite tightness in the copper concentrate market, global smelter output remains stable, with a year-to-date increase of 12% in China's refined copper production, contributing to a surplus in the global refined market [3][6] Demand Insights - **Mixed Demand Signals**: Demand is holding up, supported by robust grid investments in China and renewables in Europe and the US, but traditional end markets in Europe and the US show little evidence of recovery [6][7] - **Future Demand Growth**: Refined copper demand growth is forecasted at around 3.5% for 2026/27, with potential upside risks from economic recovery in developed markets [6][7] Investment Opportunities - **Preferred Copper Equities**: The company identifies Freeport, Anglo American, Teck, and Antofagasta as preferred copper plays, with Freeport expected to re-rate positively if medium-term production at Grasberg is affirmed [7] - **Market Performance**: Copper equities have performed well, with COPX up 60% year-to-date, and the company anticipates continued premium valuations for copper equities compared to diversified peers [7] Additional Insights - **Inventory Trends**: Global visible copper inventories are approximately 0.5 million tons, below the average levels of 2010-2020, indicating a tight supply situation [17] - **Speculative Positioning**: Increased speculative long copper positioning has been observed, driven by material mine disruptions and a trend towards 'hard assets' [1][6] Conclusion The copper market is characterized by a structurally positive long-term outlook, tempered by short-term challenges related to demand fluctuations and supply disruptions. Investment opportunities exist in select copper equities, with a focus on maintaining premium valuations amidst a backdrop of mixed demand signals and stable refined output.

Core Viewpoint - BHP Group Ltd has officially withdrawn from merger discussions with Anglo American plc, signaling a shift towards focusing on its own growth strategies despite the potential benefits of a merger [1][2]. Group 1: Merger Discussions - BHP confirmed it is no longer considering a merger with Anglo American after initial discussions and has formally withdrawn under Rule 2.8 of the UK City Code on Takeovers and Mergers [1][3]. - The company stated that while a merger would have provided "strong strategic merits" and "significant value for all stakeholders," it remains committed to its organic growth plans [2]. Group 2: Implications of Withdrawal - BHP's withdrawal under Rule 2.8 prevents it from making another offer for Anglo American for at least six months unless certain exceptions occur, such as a new formal offer from another party or a material change in circumstances [3]. - The potential merger was seen as a significant opportunity to create the world's largest copper producer, a critical metal for energy transition, but faced challenges including regulatory hurdles and potential opposition from shareholders [4]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - Following the decision to withdraw from merger talks, BHP is refocusing on internal projects, particularly its copper and potash expansions in Chile and Canada, aligning with long-term demand trends in electrification and decarbonization [5].

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto demonstrated strong operational performance in Q3 2025, with significant increases in production and shipments across various segments despite challenging commodity markets [2][4][9] Production and Shipments - Pilbara iron-ore shipments reached 84.3 million tons, a 6% increase from the previous quarter [2] - IOC iron-ore pellets and concentrate production rose by 11% year-on-year [2] - Copper-equivalent production grew by 9% compared to Q3 2024 [2] - Bauxite production increased to 16.4 million tons, reflecting a 9% year-on-year rise, while aluminum output rose by 6% to approximately 0.86 million tons [2] Financial Performance - The share price of Rio Tinto increased by approximately 18% year-to-date, driven by diversified production and a focus on higher-growth sectors like copper and lithium [4][9] - The company revised its full-year bauxite guidance to a range of 59–61 million tons, up from 57–59 million tons [2] Growth Drivers - Copper production reached 204 kt in Q3, marking a 10% year-on-year increase, with expectations to meet the higher end of annual guidance [7] - The growth in bauxite and aluminum segments, supported by updated guidance, presents potential upside for the company [8] Future Outlook - Q4 2025 will be critical for iron-ore volumes and operational stability, especially following earlier weather disturbances [6] - Consistent Pilbara shipments alongside growth in bauxite and aluminum could lead to a strong finish for the year [6]

Company Overview - TMC The Metals Company specializes in deep-sea exploration for polymetallic nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, which are rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese, essential for electric vehicle batteries and clean technology [3] - Currently priced at $5.42, TMC's stock is trading at less than half of its 52-week high of $11.35, indicating significant volatility [2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, TMC reported liquidity of $43.8 million, with only $2.3 million in cash and a burn rate of $9.3 million, resulting in a net loss of $20.6 million [6] - The company raised $37 million through a direct offering in May, but faces potential dilution risks due to attached warrants [6] Strategic Initiatives - TMC is pursuing U.S. permits under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, aiming to expedite commercial recovery without waiting for international regulations [5] - A pre-feasibility study assigned a net present value (NPV) of $5.5 billion to the NORI-D project, with an overall project value of $23.6 billion when combined with other resources [5] Investment and Partnerships - Korea Zinc invested $85.2 million in TMC, acquiring a 5% ownership stake, which provides financial backing and industry credibility [5] Regulatory and Environmental Challenges - TMC's strategy of utilizing U.S. law instead of relying on the International Seabed Authority is contentious, with potential regulatory and environmental risks looming [7] - There are calls for a moratorium from various nations and scientific organizations, which could delay TMC's business model [7] Future Outlook - Key catalysts for TMC include acquiring a commercial recovery permit from NOAA and effective cash management to sustain operations [9] - The company must also conduct more detailed feasibility studies or initiate pilot collection projects to validate long-term economics [9] - Failure to secure permits or manage cash deficits could negatively impact investor sentiment and valuation [10] Investment Perspective - TMC represents a speculative investment with the potential to revolutionize the supply of essential battery metals, but it carries considerable risks [11] - The current decline in stock price may present an opportunity for investors confident in deep-sea nodules and willing to navigate environmental and regulatory challenges [11]