Cross Asset Research 4 May 2025 Global Portfolio Manager's Digest Reality Check We provide context and perspective on research across regions and asset classes, this week highlighting our thoughts on the recent outperformance in risk assets; how AI will shape the investing landscape; and we update our oil forecasts on the weakening fundamental outlook. This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research repo ...

Group 1: Market Performance - MSCI China has nearly recovered its 13% drawdown since Liberation Day, returning 12% year-to-date[1] - The Rmb appreciated against the USD by 1.7% in the past month, indicating currency strength amid trade tensions[1] - Chinese government bonds are re-testing all-time highs, reflecting resilience in financial assets despite trade frictions[1] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The effective US tariff rate on Chinese imports is expected to decrease from approximately 160% to around 60% soon, positively impacting earnings forecasts[1] - The 12-month index target for MSCI China and CSI300 has been raised to 78 and 4,400, suggesting potential returns of 7% and 15% respectively[1] - EPS growth estimates for MSCI China have been adjusted from 4% to 6% based on lower tariff expectations and a stronger Rmb[9] Group 3: Policy Measures - The PBoC and other regulatory bodies announced 23 measures to support the economy, including targeted monetary easing to improve liquidity[5] - Recent monetary policy actions include a 50 basis point RRR cut, providing approximately Rmb1 trillion in liquidity[7] - The focus of policy measures is increasingly on demand-side support, aiming to stabilize the housing market and enhance social safety nets[5] Group 4: Trade and Investment Dynamics - Southbound equity flows to HK-listed stocks have reached US$80 billion year-to-date, three times larger than the same period last year[18] - Concerns regarding ADR de-listing risks have moderated, but potential liquidity disruptions could arise if US investors liquidate over US$800 billion in Chinese stocks[14] - The Chinese National Team has actively supported the A-share market, purchasing at least Rmb110 billion worth of equities since April[18]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic climate, characterized by a trade war and uncertainty, may not seem favorable for investing in discretionary travel stocks like Booking Holdings [1] Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for investment in Booking Holdings despite the ongoing trade war and economic uncertainty [1] - The author expresses a personal interest in uncovering investment opportunities across various sectors, including equities and cryptocurrencies [1] - The author has a background in communications and an MBA, indicating a level of expertise in investment analysis [1] Group 2 - There is a disclosure stating that the author does not hold any positions in the mentioned companies but may consider initiating a long position in Booking Holdings within the next 72 hours [2] - The article emphasizes that the views expressed are personal opinions and not influenced by any compensation or business relationships [2][4] - The author encourages readers to conduct their own due diligence regarding investment decisions [3]

Group 1 - PayPal's shares have recently declined from approximately $90 at the beginning of February to below $70, influenced by general market weakness and concerns over a potential trade war between the U.S. and other countries [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment strategies and achievements of Paul Franke, a seasoned investor with 38 years of trading experience, emphasizing his unique stock selection methods and performance metrics [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Paul Franke employs a contrarian stock selection style, utilizing daily algorithm analysis of fundamental and technical data to identify investment opportunities [1]. - His system, named "Victory Formation," focuses on supply/demand imbalances indicated by specific stock price and volume movements [1]. - The "Bottom Fishing Club" articles highlight deep-value candidates or stocks showing significant upward technical momentum reversals [1]. - "Volume Breakout Report" articles analyze positive trend changes supported by strong price and volume trading actions [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Franke was consistently ranked among the top investment advisors nationally during the 1990s, recognized for his macro views on stock markets and commodities [1]. - He achieved the 1 ranking in the Motley Fool® CAPS stock picking contest during parts of 2008 and 2009, out of over 60,000 portfolios [1]. - As of September 2024, he is ranked in the Top 3% of bloggers by TipRanks® for 12-month stock picking performance based on suggestions made over the last decade [1]. Group 3: Risk Management - Franke advises investors to implement stop-loss levels of 10% or 20% on individual stock choices and to maintain a diversified portfolio of at least 50 well-positioned stocks to enhance regular stock market outperformance [1].

Core Viewpoint - ACM Research (ACMR) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results with projected revenues between $165 million and $170 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 8.4%-11.7% despite a decline in earnings per share by 28.85% compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is 37 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days [1]. - ACMR has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 97.86% [2]. Market Demand and Product Expansion - The first-quarter performance is anticipated to benefit from strong demand for single-wafer cleaning, electroplating, furnace tools, and advanced packaging, particularly in Mainland China [3]. - New products, including the high-temperature Sulfuric Peroxide Mixture (SPM) and Tahoe, are expected to drive revenue growth [3][5]. - ACMR is expanding its market presence outside Mainland China, engaging with global customers in the U.S., Europe, Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore [4]. Customer Base and Revenue Growth - The diverse customer base includes major players like Huahong Group, SMIC, and YMTC, contributing to solid demand and revenue growth [5]. - The furnace product line is gaining traction, particularly among memory and logic customers, leading to increased revenues from this segment [5]. Challenges - ACMR faces challenges from macroeconomic uncertainties, increasing competition in the semiconductor industry, and U.S. export restrictions [6][16]. Stock Valuation - ACMR shares are considered undervalued, with a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 1.18X compared to the sector's 5.82X and peers like Applied Materials and Lam Research [7]. - The company's shares have increased by 28.3% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector, which has declined by 8% [10]. Competitive Landscape - ACMR has outperformed key competitors such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Tokyo Electron in the year-to-date period [13]. - The company has diversified its product offerings across cleaning, plating, and advanced packaging, targeting a global semiconductor market estimated at approximately $18 billion [14]. Technological Advancements - A major logic device manufacturer in Mainland China has qualified ACMR's Single-Wafer High-Temperature SPM tool, designed for advanced semiconductor applications [15].

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) shares are down almost 18% year-to-date and more than 7% in the last six months. In my opinion, a big reason for this recent sell off is because of theThis account is managed by Noah's Arc Capital Management. Our goal is provide Wall Street level insights to main street investors. Our research focus is mainly on 20th century stocks (old economy) undergoing a 21st century transformation, but occasionally we'll write on companies that help transform 20th century firms as well. We look fo ...

The "Magnificent Seven" group of stocks hasn't really been known for being called cheap. This group includes some big tech high-flyers that led the market over the past few years but have gotten slammed this year. They are: All seven of these stocks are off their all-time highs alongside the market, amid uncertainty caused by the Trump administration's trade policies. But only a few of these stocks have tumbled to price points where the stocks can actually be considered cheap. The three that I think fit thi ...

Core Insights - Netflix's stock has achieved an 11-day positive trading streak, marking its longest run ever, surpassing the previous record of nine days in late 2018 and early 2019 [1] - The stock is currently trading at all-time high levels since its IPO in May 2002 [1] Financial Performance - In the most recent earnings report on April 17, Netflix reported a 13% revenue growth in Q1 2025, driven by higher-than-expected subscription and advertising revenue [2] - The company forecasts full-year revenue between $43.5 billion and $44.5 billion, indicating stability in its business outlook [4] Market Position - Netflix has outperformed traditional media stocks during President Trump's second term, with shares increasing over 30% since mid-January [3] - In contrast, traditional media companies like Warner Bros. Discovery and Disney have seen declines of nearly 10% and 13%, respectively, since Trump took office [4] Economic Resilience - Netflix's co-CEO Greg Peters noted that the company has not experienced significant impacts from tariffs or economic downturns, emphasizing the historical resilience of entertainment during tough economic times [5] - Analysts from JPMorgan see further upside potential for Netflix shares, reinforcing the company's strong market position [5][6] Pricing Strategy - Netflix has increased its subscription prices, with the standard plan now at $17.99, the ad-supported plan at $7.99, and the premium plan at $24.99, yet it appears to have maintained its value proposition for customers [7] - The company has shifted focus from sharing membership numbers to emphasizing revenue growth, leaving uncertainty about the growth or decline of its subscriber base [7]

Core Viewpoint - Apple is shifting its manufacturing strategy to mitigate the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with most iPhones being sourced from India and iPads from Vietnam, aiming to avoid significant price increases for American consumers [1][10]. Financial Performance - For the first three months of the year, Apple reported revenue of £71.8 billion and earnings of £18.6 billion, surpassing analyst expectations [4]. - The company anticipates an additional cost of £677 million in the current quarter due to tariffs, assuming no changes in Trump's policies [2]. Market Dynamics - High demand for iPhones was noted during the period, likely driven by US consumers making purchases before the new tariffs took effect [4]. - The full impact of any panic buying will be assessed in Apple's results for the April to June period [4]. Supply Chain and Manufacturing Changes - Apple's previous reliance on Chinese factories for iPhone production made it more vulnerable to the effects of the trade war compared to other companies [5]. - Devices sold outside the US will continue to be manufactured in China, while the company is diversifying its supply chain to reduce risks associated with having all production in one location [10]. Stock Market Reaction - Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, Apple's stock experienced a significant decline of 23%, resulting in a loss of £582 billion in market value, although it has since recovered slightly [7]. - Despite the recovery, the stock remains 5% lower than before the tariffs were announced [7]. Sales Impact - Sales in China fell by 2.3% between January and March, influenced by the growing tensions between Washington and Beijing [7].