Getting some breaking news out of the Fed this morning. We'll turn to Steve Leeman with that who's also got a piece on the wires. Now, Steve, that's [music] uh pretty interesting.We'll get you the Williams headlines first, though. >> Yeah. John Williams, New York, Fed President, saying monetary policy is well positioned as we head into 2026.That is language the Fed chair used at the meeting recently that people took to say the Fed was on hold, but not entirely clear. This is where Williams is headed. He say ...

Let's get to the broader markets. Our next guest is bullish about the new year. Says worries about tech's high valuations are misplaced.Joining us here this morning at Post9 is Tally Leisure, chief market strategist at the Wealth Consulting Group. Nice to have you in T. Welcome.>> Thank you. Good to be here. At least to have you, Dad.>> You're uh you're pretty constructive on next year. >> Yes. And I'm glad we're sitting down for that conversation because we see the S&P 500 achieving 85 8500 >> 8500 driven ...

Market Outlook - The S&P 500 is projected to reach 8,500, driven by rising earnings and decreasing interest rates, with a positive sentiment expected to boost the stock market [2] - There is a belief that the technology sector will enable broader market growth, including small-cap stocks, as innovation drives a catch-up phase [3] Economic Indicators - Stability in inflation is observed, with a slight cooling dynamic, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions [4] - The consumer sentiment index indicates that 5-year inflation expectations have returned to levels seen a year ago, reflecting a positive economic outlook [5] Sector Performance - Cyclical sectors such as industrials, financials, and energy have recently outperformed, suggesting a positive economic growth outlook for the upcoming year [5][6] - Financial conditions are easing, supporting a reacceleration in the broader economy, which is favorable for cyclical stocks [7] Labor Market and Consumption - There is a concern regarding potential headwinds from a softening labor market, which could impact consumption and overall economic growth [8] - Despite concerns, consumption levels have been at record highs, and as long as sales continue to accelerate while payrolls decelerate, margin expansion is expected [9]

JERSEY CITY, New Jersey, Dec 15 (Reuters) - New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Monday the U.S. central bank's interest rate cut last week leaves it in a good position to deal with ​what lies ahead, adding that he sees inflation moderating amid cooling in the job market. "Monetary policy is well positioned ‌as we head into 2026," Williams said at an event held by the New Jersey Bankers Association in Jersey City. With the recent easing, the rate-setting ‌Federal Open Market Committee ...

Core Insights - Social Security benefits are failing to maintain retirees' buying power due to inadequacies in the Cost of Living Adjustments (COLAs) formula [2][4][5] - The current COLA formula is based on a consumer price index that does not accurately reflect the spending habits of seniors, leading to a significant loss in purchasing power [6][7] Group 1: Social Security and COLA Issues - Social Security benefits are intended to help retirees maintain their buying power, but this is not happening in practice [2][4] - COLAs are calculated based on a price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, which does not align with the spending patterns of retirees [5][6] - Since 2010, Social Security benefits have lost approximately 20% of their buying power due to the inadequacies in the COLA calculations [7] Group 2: Potential Solutions - There are alternative solutions, such as annuities, that could help retirees fill the gap created by insufficient Social Security benefits [3]

Economic Indicators - The Dec NAHB housing market index is expected to increase by +1 to 39 [1] - Nov nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +50,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.5% [1] - Nov average hourly earnings are expected to rise by +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y [1] - Oct retail sales are expected to be up +0.1% m/m, and retail sales ex-autos are expected to be up +0.2% m/m [1] - The Dec S&P manufacturing PMI is expected to decline by -0.2 to 52.0 [1] - Weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to fall -11,000 to 225,000 [1] - Nov CPI is expected to be +3.1% y/y, and Nov core CPI is expected to be +3.0% y/y [1] - Nov existing home sales are expected to be up +1.2% m/m to 4.15 million [1] - The University of Michigan Dec consumer sentiment index is expected to be revised upward by +0.2 to 53.5 [1] Global Economic News - China's Nov industrial production eased to +4.8% y/y from +4.9% y/y in Oct, below expectations of +5.0% y/y [2] - China's Nov retail sales rose +1.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.9% y/y, marking the smallest increase in 2.75 years [2] - China's new home prices fell 0.39% m/m, marking the 30th consecutive month of declines [2] Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes are climbing, with the S&P 500 Index up by +0.39%, Dow Jones up by +0.27%, and Nasdaq 100 up by +0.50% [5] - The markets are discounting a 27% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 bp at the next meeting [5] - Mining stocks are moving higher, with gold and copper up more than +1% and silver up more than +3% [11] - KLA Corp is up more than +4% after an upgrade from Jeffries, leading chip makers higher [10] - ZIM Integrated Shipping Services is up more than +5% after a reported bid from MSC to purchase the company [12] Interest Rates and Bond Market - The 10-year T-note yield is down -2.0 bp to 4.165%, with T-notes climbing due to dovish economic indicators [7] - The yield curve has steepened since the last FOMC meeting, indicating bearish sentiment for T-note prices [8] - European government bond yields are moving lower, with the 10-year German bund yield down -1.7 bp to 2.840% [9]

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Core Insights - Consumer price growth in Canada remained stable last month, indicating a balance in the overall inflationary environment [1] Group 1: Consumer Services and Grocery Costs - Consumers experienced a decrease in service costs, contributing to the stability in consumer price growth [1] - Grocery costs saw the sharpest increase since the end of 2023, highlighting a significant pressure point for consumers [1] Group 2: Fuel Prices - Prices at the pump declined, but the reduction was less pronounced compared to previous months, suggesting a potential area of concern for consumers [1]

Market Overview - Major U.S. index futures indicate a higher open on Monday, suggesting a potential recovery from last Friday's significant weakness, particularly in tech stocks [1] - Trading activity may remain subdued as traders anticipate key U.S. economic data releases in the coming days [1] Economic Data Releases - The monthly jobs report for November and October retail sales data are set to be released on Tuesday, while consumer price inflation data for November is scheduled for Thursday [2] - These reports could influence the outlook for interest rates following the Federal Reserve's recent monetary policy announcement, which included a quarter-point rate cut [2] Stock Market Performance - On Friday, stocks experienced a notable decline, with the Nasdaq dropping 398.69 points (1.7%) to 23,195.17 and the S&P 500 falling 73.59 points (1.1%) to 6,827.41 [3] - The Dow posted a more modest loss of 245.96 points (0.5%) to 48,458.05 after reaching a new record intraday high earlier in the session [4] - For the week, the Dow increased by 1.1%, while the S&P 500 decreased by 0.6% and the Nasdaq fell by 1.6% [4] Sector Performance - Broadcom (AVGO) led the tech sector lower, plunging over 11% despite reporting better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results and providing positive guidance [5] - Other tech stocks, including Micron Technology (MU), Oracle, AMD, and Nvidia, also saw significant declines, indicating a continued rotation out of tech stocks [5] - The NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index experienced a 5.2% drop, reflecting poor performance in computer hardware stocks [7] International Market Reactions - Asian stocks fell as investors expressed concerns over tech valuations and reacted to disappointing economic data from China [10] - Chinese industrial production grew 4.8% year-on-year in November, missing forecasts, while retail sales rose only 1.3%, significantly below expectations [12] - The Japanese market also declined, with the Nikkei 225 Index dropping 1.3% amid concerns over tech share valuations [13] European Market Trends - European stocks mostly moved higher ahead of a busy week for U.S. economic data and central bank decisions, with the German DAX Index up by 0.3% and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index rising by 1.0% [18][19] - However, technology company Royal Philips and pharmaceutical firm Sanofi faced declines due to corporate news impacting their stock prices [19][20]

Economic Data Release - The government plans to release several important economic data points between December 16 and December 18, which were delayed due to the government shutdown [2][5] - Key metrics include non-farm payrolls, retail sales, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which are critical for assessing the economy's performance and the Federal Reserve's potential actions regarding interest rates [5][7] Market Performance and Sentiment - The stock market has increased over 17.5% as of December 11, indicating a strong performance for the third consecutive year despite volatility [3] - Investors are facing uncertainty due to potential headwinds such as high inflation, recession risks, and stagflation concerns [3] Labor Market Insights - Non-farm payrolls data for October and November is expected to show a slump in October due to the government shutdown, with a rebound anticipated in November; the unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.4% [6][7] - The labor market's condition is a primary concern for the Federal Reserve, influencing its decisions on interest rate adjustments [6][9] Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Retail sales data is crucial as it reflects consumer demand, which is vital for an economy heavily reliant on consumer spending; stronger retail sales are expected during the holiday season [8] - The CPI is forecasted to increase by 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, serving as a key inflation gauge [8] Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Strategy - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting interest rates if the labor market shows weakness and inflation remains subdued, as lower rates can stimulate economic growth [9][10] - The Fed aims to avoid stagflation, where high inflation coincides with rising unemployment, complicating its ability to support the labor market [10]